ALL 22 - WEEK 12 JAGS - OLINE PLAY / QB UNFORCED ERRORS

[Bocephuz]

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not?

I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did /
How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate)

Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field.

DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play)


_______ ______________________

TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 22 - (last week was 29 for reference)

LINE BREAKDOWNS: 6/22 or 27% (last week was 5 / 29 or 17% of snaps for reference) In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 27% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate. 27% is a bad number. The O Line (particularly the tackles) played poorly against the Jags

SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 16/22 or 73% (last week 24 / 29 snaps or 83%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 73% of the time.

UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 5/16 snaps or 31% (last week was 5/24 snaps or 21%) Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 5 unforced errors by my count..which is right on the "DANGER" line. I almost gave him 6 .. however I changed my mind on one (see later below)



BOTTOM LINE

GROY SOLID AGAIN - For the second week in a row I really didn't notice Ryan Groy at all watching this tape.. which is a very good thing. He acquitted himself very well against the Jags. He's been a nice surprise filling in for Woods

INCOGNITO A STUD - Richie slipped a bit in pass protect early in the year.. but he's really rebounded the last 2 games. I did not see him contribute to any QB pressures.

JOHN MILLER - other than one obvious pressure he gave up.. Miller was generally solid this game

 

MILLS STICKS OUT AGAIN - Mills quite simply cannot handle speed rushers well at all. Of the 6 O Line pass protect breakdowns he contributed to 3 of them. He also threw in a false start for good measure. A Lynn better have a plan to help him with Mack next week or it will be ugly.

q2 10:33 - Mills beaten to the outside forcing TT to scramble

 

another play where Mills gives up pressure.. he just whiffs here..

 

-
GLENN STRUGGLES AGAIN - The normally steady Cordy Glenn has now had 2 bad weeks in a row. Of the 6 O line pass protect breakdowns he contributed to 3 as well (just as many errors as Mills had). He had a particularly bad series in Q1 with back to back pressures given up

 

q2 3:24 - Glenn beaten to the outside.. TT is looking deep but due to pass rush has to check down short

 

q2 3;18 - Ngayoue beats Glenn on the outside with a speed rush .. sacks TT and almost causes a fumble

 

TYROD HOLDING THE BALL.. WHAT REALLY CAUSED IT? - Watching in real time it was maddening to see several plays where the O Line was holding up yet TT was not pulling the trigger on throws. Some of these plays led to sacks. Was it his WRs not getting separation? Was it TT being too conservative? Were some of these coverage sacks?

In short.. to my eye 3 of the situations where he was patting the ball and not pulling the trigger were legitimate coverage sacks where there were no good options for TT to throw to. Jacksonville rarely blitzed and they were dropping their LBs and Safeties deep on many plays.

 

q1 7:04 - COVERAGE SACK - TT hits his drop but no one is remotely open... leads to coverage sack. This play is a bit of a tire fire

 

q2 4:48 - COVERAGE SACK - TT has a time and is looking deep for Watkins.. however. coverage is solid and the safety is lurking. He has a small window of time to dump off to O'Leary here.. but I am ok with him tucking and running here

 

 

TT also hurt himself a few times with unforced errors

 

Q2 1:214 UNFORCED ERROR - TT feels pressure coming from his right causing bad/ rushed mechanics and an overthrow to an open O'Leary in the end zone. TT needs to stay in the pocket.. deliver and take the hit on this one but he doesn't.

 

 

 

q2 3:27 UNFORCED ERROR - Relatively clean pocket..TT is looking right at the WR at the bottom of the screen who is about to come open on a deep comeback.. but for some reason he checks down to the RB

 

 

Here's one where I initially gave him an Unforced Error grade.. but then rescinded it after further review. Interested to hear what others have to say on this one

 

Q3 8:47 - TT has time.. both wideouts at top and bottom of the screen are running deep comebacks. Upon first blush I could not figure out why he didn't pull the trigger on either of these. On second look.. the LBs and safety don't bite on the play fake and I did see that the LBs seemed to have been clogging both passing lanes

 

 

 

DEEP BALL

 

Q3 4:34 - When Tyrod knows where he wants to go and is decisive he can be deadly. We've seen this throw many times.. but what we haven't always seen his TT looking off the safety.. making him turn his hips.. and then letting it rip as soon as he sees the S bite.

 

 

 

O Line Pass block grades

GLENN – C-
INCOGNITO - A
GROY - A
MILLER - C+
MILLS- C-


SUMMARY - Overall.. the O line gave up too many pressures today.. foiling many of the deep attempts The Bills were trying to execute. This was due mostly to poor play by both tackles. We all know that Jordan Mills is not a starting caliber RT .. however.. it is somewhat scary that Cordy Glenn has had two bad weeks in a row. With that being said.. TT was right on the borderline of having too many unforced errors himself. He redeemed himself with two aggressive throws to Watkins deep.. and then the TD to Hunter but he left a fair amount of plays on the table against the Jags. In short.. The Bills offense was generally out of rhythm most of the game and the blame can be laid across the board.

Here are my takeaways summarized

 

UNDER 30 PASS ATTEMPTS - BILLS WIN AGAIN -

NO SEPARATION/ COVERAGE SACKS - Contrary to my assumption watching the game live..several of the maddening sequences where TT was not pulling the trigger were indeed due to tight coverage or the WRs getting no separation.. and not necessarily on him being too cautious

TT MAKES PROGRESS ON HITCH THROWS - TT has improved his quick timing/ hitch game when called to execute it. Interestingly enough.. I did not see any slant routes attempted or executed.

TT STILL MAKES SAME MISTAKES - On the down side .. TT still occasionally stares down receivers ( see the q2 1:11 play where he stares down Powell on the out route putting him in a bad position where the CB blows him up and hurts his ankle). He also is somewhat hesitant to stay in the pocket and take the tough hit and deliver ( see overthrow to O'Leary in endzone)

 

TT STILL MAKES BIG PLAYS.. TAKES CARE OF THE BALL - at the end of the day TT was aggressive enough on several plays to overcome his cautiousness during most of the game. It was enough to win.. but relying on boom or bust big plays will catch up with them sooner or later if they don't start to develop more of a consistent rhythm on offense going forward.

PLAYS OF NOTE

Q1 7:39 – Nice footwork, timing hitch throw to Clay

 

 

 

Q1 7:04 – COVERAGE SACK

 

 

 

Q1 3:24 – Glenn beaten to the outside.. TT seems to be looking deep but has to bail and throw short due to pressure

 

 

 

Q1 3:18 – SACK – Glenn is beaten again to the outside and gives up a sack

 

 

 

Q2 13:30 – TT proactively runs on 3^rd and 3 for first down. Appears to be smart decision

 

 

 

Q2 11: 18 – Miller gives up pressure and TT is sacked. He is clearly looking to go deep here but there is not enough time

 

q2 10:34 - False start on Mills

q2 10:33 - Mills beaten to the outside.. TT has to scramble

 

q2 538 - Nice footwork, TT hits drop and throws nice hitch to Goodwin on time

 

q2 448 - COVERAGE SACK - TT has time.. looking deep for Watkins but good coverage by CB and the safety is lurking so he tucks and runs

 

q2 327 - UNFORCED ERROR - relatively clean pocket.. but TT makes poor choice and checks down to Williams when he has WR open on deep comeback

 

q2 124 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT overthrows open O'Leary in endzone

 

q2 1:11 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT stares down Powell .. setting him up to get injured on short out route

 

q3 - 8:00 - COVERAGE SACK

 

Q3 4:34 - BEAUTIFUL DEEP BALL TO SAMMY!!

 

Q4 14:08 - Both Glenn and Mills beaten causing TT to drop of to McCoy who makes great play

 

q4 13:37 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT throws wide to Goodwin

 

q4 - TD to Hunter - solid aggressive throw

 

q4 UNFORCED ERROR - has time.. throws behind Clay

 

q4 Nice timing completion to Clay for 1st down to help ice the game

Edited by Bocephuz, 22 November 2016 - 09:51 PM.

Edited November 30, 2016 by Bocephuz

[fridge]

 

 

 

 

 

 

^^^Ah yes, the elusive phantom pressure that we're all making up and isn't happening at all.

 

q1 7:04 - COVERAGE SACK: I would consider that play to be a perfect example of, had he stayed in the pocket, he would have been fine.

 

After looking at the play where you determined no one was open, you should rephrase that to, no one was "wide open". It's the NFL, receivers in one-on-one coverage with no safety help are not blanketed if you lead them correctly.

[Big C]

Thanks again for the breakdown! Mostly I was impressed with the Jaguars defense, less so disappointed with Tyrod. The Jags were a hype pick for AFCS division winner, and up until last week I was kind of surprised at how bad they were doing. I definitely thought they were going to compete this year. heir failure doesn't seem to be at all due to their defense. Although, plays like the big McCoy TD are the kind of plays that can make or break your game (much like our Duke Williams on Mike Wallace fiasco week 1). Every team lets one of those go every now and then. Based on the past couple times we've played the Jags, I can see why Bradley has been retained. They seem well prepared overall, just unable to fully execute.

[Big Gun]

 

 

^^^Ah yes, the elusive phantom pressure that we're all making up and isn't happening at all.

 

q1 7:04 - COVERAGE SACK: I would consider that play to be a perfect example of, had he stayed in the pocket, he would have been fine.

 

After looking at the play where you determined no one was open, you should rephrase that to, no one was "wide open". It's the NFL, receivers in one-on-one coverage with no safety help are not blanketed if you lead them correctly.

Yup, agreed, that's not a coverage sack at all.

[yungmack]

Nice breakdown. Thanks for all your excellent work.

[Bocephuz]

Nice breakdown. Thanks for all your excellent work.

👍

Thanks again for the breakdown! Mostly I was impressed with the Jaguars defense, less so disappointed with Tyrod. The Jags were a hype pick for AFCS division winner, and up until last week I was kind of surprised at how bad they were doing. I definitely thought they were going to compete this year. heir failure doesn't seem to be at all due to their defense. Although, plays like the big McCoy TD are the kind of plays that can make or break your game (much like our Duke Williams on Mike Wallace fiasco week 1). Every team lets one of those go every now and then. Based on the past couple times we've played the Jags, I can see why Bradley has been retained. They seem well prepared overall, just unable to fully execute.

Jags D was very disciplined and effective. Lucky for us their O had a couple of big drops and we dodged that PI penalty on Gilmore at the end of the game

[Maury Ballstein]

Nice breakdown. Thanks for all your excellent work.

These are the best. No TT fanboys or doubters mucking up the story w emotions.

[3rdand12]

 

Jags D was very disciplined and effective. Lucky for us their O had a couple of big drops and we dodged that PI penalty on Gilmore at the end of the game

I am always appreciative Boce.

Thanks Bud !!!

[GunnerBill]

I agree with most of your grades for the line this week but I'd give Mills a D. Very poor.

 

I don't agree that all those coverage sacks are coverage sacks. Some are on Tyrod's decision making (when to move up, escape etc)

[Bocephuz]

I agree with most of your grades for the line this week but I'd give Mills a D. Very poor.

 

I don't agree that all those coverage sacks are coverage sacks. Some are on Tyrod's decision making (when to move up, escape etc)

Mills' performance was indeed poor.

 

The coverage sacks are subjective and lend themselves open to debate. His pocket presence is still often skittish. At the very least most would agree there are no obvious targets open on those plays and that the WRs are not getting mich separation on those plays

[GunnerBill]

Mills' performance was indeed poor.

 

The coverage sacks are subjective and lend themselves open to debate. His pocket presence is still often skittish. At the very least most would agree there are no obvious targets open on those plays and that the WRs are not getting mich separation on those plays

There are people open enough to make plays. Poor decision making.

[Herb62]

I hope Cory isn't hurt again.

[Bocephuz]

I hope Cory isn't hurt again.

Something isn't quite right

[Mike in Horseheads]

I look forward to this every week, thanks for all your time.

[r00tabaga]

I hope Cory isn't hurt again.

Cordy?

[jahbonas]

I would love to see the attempts (first 5 or 6) to run on 1st down in the first half with each going for 0 or -2 yards putting TT in constant 2nd and longs.

 

More times than not when our offense sputters its the poor first down runs setting the tone for a bad series

[bobobonators]

Thank you for your work.

[Nihilarian]

Good stuff Bo!

 

I don't think many Bills fan get just how good that Jacksonville defense is and I'd rate that pass defense about as good as the Seahawks. Their D-line was creating such havoc with a simple four-man rush.

 

The Keys to this game in my view were the multiple breakdowns on the Jags D in both the safety and CB covering the same gap that freed up Shady for that long run. The breakdown in their pass defense that allowed Sammy that big catch. Last but not least was their special team's breakdown in allowing that big return right before the end of the half. Bad teams make these sort of mistakes, though.

 

Sometimes it's just better to be lucky...

[Bocephuz]

I look forward to this every week, thanks for all your time.

👍

[BillsFan130]

Thank you sir. Always look forward to your posts