Fitz calls his shot -Update Signed w/Jets

[FireChan]

Where I respectfully but strenuously disagree with your reasoning along with others who take the same view is that you are looking at Fitz's numbers last year and using it as his standard/baseline. He had a good year last year. I've never said otherwise. But I don't consider it representative of the caliber of qb he actually is.

 

For the organizations who are signing players on the market they not only consider what they did but what they are as a qb talents. As a starter Fitz is a lower tier qb (experienced backup talent) who is at the tail end of his career. Again, no other team has any interest in him. The issue comes down to signing Fitz based on his last year's numbers or signing Fitz based on his actual talent level. The Jets watched Fitz play in his last game against Buffalo. That's who he is as a player. It's not about fairness or sentiment. It is cold blooded analysis over what he will do for you under the new contract. I say this respectfully but with conviction: You are over inflating his worth----a mistake the Jets don't seem to want to make.

The most recent season is the most relevant season.

[JohnC]

The most recent season is the most relevant season.

Apparently not to the Jet organization!

[FireChan]

Apparently not to the Jet organization!

I suppose not. It may cost everyone their jobs over there.

[JohnC]

I suppose not. It may cost everyone their jobs over there.

They are more worried about overvaluing Fitz than undervaluing him. They are doing the right thing. Odds are a deal will get done. Fitz will get what he deserves. It won't be what he is asking for.

 

The jobs in Buffalo are more in jeopardy than the jobs are in NY.

Edited May 30, 2016 by JohnC

[Kirby Jackson]

Where I respectfully but strenuously disagree with your reasoning along with others who take the same view is that you are looking at Fitz's numbers last year and using it as his standard/baseline. He had a good year last year. I've never said otherwise. But I don't consider it representative of the caliber of qb he actually is.

 

For the organizations who are signing players on the market they not only consider what they did but what they are as a qb talents. As a starter Fitz is a lower tier qb (experienced backup talent) who is at the tail end of his career. Again, no other team has any interest in him. The issue comes down to signing Fitz based on his last year's numbers or signing Fitz based on his actual talent level. The Jets watched Fitz play in his last game against Buffalo. That's who he is as a player. It's not about fairness or sentiment. It is cold blooded analysis over what he will do for you under the new contract. I say this respectfully but with conviction: You are over inflating his worth----a mistake the Jets don't seem to want to make.

His last 3 years rival Kaep, Tannehill and Cutler. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I'm confident about that. His $15M year one would put him right in that tier. Again, the numbers climb (a lot) each year. Osweiler got $18M for doing a lot less than Fitz.

 

We need to not think of $15M as a high end starter. Thats bottom 8 money in the current NFL. There are a handful of rookies in there as well. That's bottom 5 for a vet starter. That's why he won't take less. He played around 15-20 last year. He'll accept the money of the Tannehill's and Kaep's but not Foles.

Edited May 30, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[Mr. WEO]

Where I respectfully but strenuously disagree with your reasoning along with others who take the same view is that you are looking at Fitz's numbers last year and using it as his standard/baseline. He had a good year last year. I've never said otherwise. But I don't consider it representative of the caliber of qb he actually is.

 

For the organizations who are signing players on the market they not only consider what they did but what they are as a qb talents. As a starter Fitz is a lower tier qb (experienced backup talent) who is at the tail end of his career. Again, no other team has any interest in him. The issue comes down to signing Fitz based on his last year's numbers or signing Fitz based on his actual talent level. The Jets watched Fitz play in his last game against Buffalo. That's who he is as a player. It's not about fairness or sentiment. It is cold blooded analysis over what he will do for you under the new contract. I say this respectfully but with conviction: You are over inflating his worth----a mistake the Jets don't seem to want to make.

[Doc]

The most recent season is the most relevant season.

 

No, it's merely the most recent season. When you have a major outlier like last season was, you need to ask whether it was an aberration or what you can expect going forward? Most people feel that it was an aberration hence no one wants to pay him a lot of money to be their starter.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

No, it's merely the most recent season. When you have a major outlier like last season was, you need to ask whether it was an aberration or what you can expect going forward? Most people feel that it was an aberration hence no one wants to pay him a lot of money to be their starter.

Except he may have been better in 2014.

[BADOLBILZ]

I was at that game.

 

He actually connected with Stevie deep late in the game when it was all but over, but was pretty much awful most of the game.

 

I figured the team would go into a tail spin after that game considering their schedule the rest of the way and how they played, but I didn't expect them to lose 7 of their last 8 lol.

 

 

The deep ball was open all day........they jumped all the short stuff and stifled the offense.

 

That was the "oh no" moment for fans wrt Fitz.

 

Like the "oh no" with Flutie was when Belichick boxed him in and forced him to hurl strikes from the pocket and rendered him useless in a critical late season 1998 game at NYJ........after he had looked unstoppable most of the year.

 

Clear weaknesses show up on film.

 

One of the reasons I was so adamant about WR being the Bills biggest need is that the best option for teams now is to double Sammy and jam the run lanes the way Philly did and make Tyrod beat them with.........gulp........Bob Woods.

 

Please Goodwin or Listenbee.......please step up and take those safeties downfield.

 

It won't be as easy as shutting down Fitz.....he was physically unable to repeat those throws at the time.........but Tyrod hasn't show the ability to work the middle of the field yet so even if Clay stays healthy they might not be able to take advantage of that matchup.

[FireChan]

Except he may have been better in 2014.

Sometimes I feel like some posters aren't paying attention to the rest of the league. Fitz got paid for 5 good games in 2011. Tanny got hugely paid for 1 good season. Cutler got paid for having a decent season. Kaep got paid for 1 and 1/2 good seasons. Osweiler played a handful of games worse than Fitz and got paid.

 

Not to say that Fitz has the potential of those other guys. But a certain performance level, dictates a certain price.

[Doc]

 

 

The deep ball was open all day........they jumped all the short stuff and stifled the offense.

 

That was the "oh no" moment for fans wrt Fitz.

 

Like the "oh no" with Flutie was when Belichick boxed him in and forced him to hurl strikes from the pocket and rendered him useless in a critical late season 1998 game at NYJ........after he had looked unstoppable most of the year.

 

Clear weaknesses show up on film.

 

One of the reasons I was so adamant about WR being the Bills biggest need is that the best option for teams now is to double Sammy and jam the run lanes the way Philly did and make Tyrod beat them with.........gulp........Bob Woods.

 

Please Goodwin or Listenbee.......please step up and take those safeties downfield.

 

It won't be as easy as shutting down Fitz.....he was physically unable to repeat those throws at the time.........but Tyrod hasn't show the ability to work the middle of the field yet so even if Clay stays healthy they might not be able to take advantage of that matchup.

 

Woods isn't the only other receiving threat.

[Kirby Jackson]

Sometimes I feel like some posters aren't paying attention to the rest of the league. Fitz got paid for 5 good games in 2011. Tanny got hugely paid for 1 good season. Cutler got paid for having a decent season. Kaep got paid for 1 and 1/2 good seasons. Osweiler played a handful of games worse than Fitz and got paid.

 

Not to say that Fitz has the potential of those other guys. But a certain performance level, dictates a certain price.

That's where I'm at. I think that Fitz is a serviceable NFL starter. The going rate for a serviceable NFL starter is $15M plus. People have a hard time with the $15M number. That's the issue with the debate. They look at $15M as a giant investment. In reality it is a low investment in a vet QB. The market is what it is.

 

 

The deep ball was open all day........they jumped all the short stuff and stifled the offense.

 

That was the "oh no" moment for fans wrt Fitz.

 

Like the "oh no" with Flutie was when Belichick boxed him in and forced him to hurl strikes from the pocket and rendered him useless in a critical late season 1998 game at NYJ........after he had looked unstoppable most of the year.

 

Clear weaknesses show up on film.

 

One of the reasons I was so adamant about WR being the Bills biggest need is that the best option for teams now is to double Sammy and jam the run lanes the way Philly did and make Tyrod beat them with.........gulp........Bob Woods.

 

Please Goodwin or Listenbee.......please step up and take those safeties downfield.

 

It won't be as easy as shutting down Fitz.....he was physically unable to repeat those throws at the time.........but Tyrod hasn't show the ability to work the middle of the field yet so even if Clay stays healthy they might not be able to take advantage of that matchup.

We are definitely in agreement that WR is a big need. I also agree that Goodwin or Listenbee will need to be out there to keep the safeties out of the box.

[Doc]

That's where I'm at. I think that Fitz is a serviceable NFL starter. The going rate for a serviceable NFL starter is $15M plus. People have a hard time with the $15M number. That's the issue with the debate. They look at $15M as a giant investment. In reality it is a low investment in a vet QB. The market is what it is.

 

$15M is almost 10% of a team's cap. That's a giant investment, much less for a serviceable NFL starter.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

$15M is almost 10% of a team's cap. That's a giant investment, much less for a serviceable NFL starter.

Regardless, that's what the market is. He's absolutely in a tier with Tannehill, Kaepernick and Cutler. That's why he hasn't signed. He may take $13.5M or so but he's not taking $8m. Osweiler, Bradford, Cousins, Alex Smith are all $18M plus.

 

As an aside, we better get accustomed to these numbers. If Tyrod turns in a year like last year or improves you will be looking at $18M plus. Prepare yourselves now.

Edited May 30, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[Doc]

Regardless, that's what the market is. He's absolutely in a tier with Tannehill, Kaepernick and Cutler. That's why he hasn't signed. He may take $13.5M or so but he's not taking $8m. Osweiler, Bradford, Cousins, Alex Smith are all $18M plus.

 

As an aside, we better get accustomed to these numbers. If Tyrod turns in a year like last year or improves you will be looking at $18M plus. Prepare yourselves now.

 

Well...the market is what someone decides to pay. After BO's deal, the market was $18M. However Fitz isn't even getting an offer for half of that from the Jets, much less another team.

 

And I think most expect TT to demand $18M/year at least. That's why they need to treat him like a franchise QB this season and have him sling the ball all over the place. I'll be pissed if they pay $18-20M for a game managing QB.

[FireChan]

 

Well...the market is what someone decides to pay. After BO's deal, the market was $18M. However Fitz isn't even getting an offer for half of that from the Jets, much less another team.

 

And I think most expect TT to demand $18M/year at least. That's why they need to treat him like a franchise QB this season and have him sling the ball all over the place. I'll be pissed if they pay $18-20M for a game managing QB.

They'll only pay him less than $18M if he sucks, game manager or no. That's the reality of the NFL.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

Well...the market is what someone decides to pay. After BO's deal, the market was $18M. However Fitz isn't even getting an offer for half of that from the Jets, much less another team.

 

And I think most expect TT to demand $18M/year at least. That's why they need to treat him like a franchise QB this season and have him sling the ball all over the place. I'll be pissed if they pay $18-20M for a game managing QB.

Some perspective. $18 million puts him in a 3 way tie for 15th highest paid QB in the NFL for the 2016 season. By 2018 Luck, Carr, Bridgewater, Bortles and Stafford will all pass him. By 2019 Winston and Mariota pass him.

 

You probably have Brady and Brees close to retirement. So if they give him $18 Million next year, by year 3 of the deal he will be no higher than the 20th highest paid QB in the NFL.

 

I really dont know how this happened, where the bottom 3rd of the NFL is so close to the elite top 5 QB's. You look at any other position and the elite top 5 guys are paid about double or triple what the bottom 3rd starters are paid. Somehow paying QBs has gotten out of control. John Elway is right, there are no middle contracts for QBs anymore. Go back tp 2011, Peyton Manning made $18 million and the 20th paid starter made $6 million. Next year the highest paid will make $22 million and the 20th paid $18 million. What the heck happened?

Edited May 30, 2016 by TheTruthHurts

[Kirby Jackson]

Some perspective. $18 million puts him in a 3 way tie for 15th highest paid QB in the NFL for the 2016 season. By 2018 Luck, Carr, Bridgewater, Bortles and Stafford will all pass him. By 2019 Winston and Mariota pass him.

 

You probably have Brady and Brees close to retirement. So if they give him $18 Million next year, by year 3 of the deal he will be no higher than the 20th highest paid QB in the NFL.

 

I really dont know how this happened, where the bottom 3rd of the NFL is so close to the elite top 5 QB's. You look at any other position and the elite top 5 guys are paid about double or triple what the bottom 3rd starters are paid. Somehow paying QBs has gotten out of control. John Elway is right, there are no middle contracts for QBs anymore. Go back tp 2011, Peyton Manning made $18 million and the 20th paid starter made $6 million. Next year the highest paid will make $22 million and the 20th paid $18 million. What the heck happened?

Well said, you articulately said what I haven't been communicating well. That's why Fitz hasn't signed. He's not about to be the guy to take less. Nice post!!

[Beerball]

The going rate for a serviceable NFL starter is $15M plus. People have a hard time with the $15M number. That's the issue with the debate.

Crux

[BADOLBILZ]

Regardless, that's what the market is. He's absolutely in a tier with Tannehill, Kaepernick and Cutler. That's why he hasn't signed. He may take $13.5M or so but he's not taking $8m. Osweiler, Bradford, Cousins, Alex Smith are all $18M plus.

 

As an aside, we better get accustomed to these numbers. If Tyrod turns in a year like last year or improves you will be looking at $18M plus. Prepare yourselves now.

 

It's occurred to me that maybe the Bills would rather see what Tyrod does without a 1A wr this year.........to prove what he can do with less.

 

I think they would have gladly taken Harvin back but had he returned in 2016 and played the way he did early last season......with Tyrod now also having a connection with Sammy........Taylor could put up a season where he might greatly out-perform his normally expected level of play while perhaps not actually improving much as a player or proving whether he is franchise material........and end up costing them $7-$10M more per season over a long term deal and becoming very tough to re-sign.

 

Case in point would be Dante Culpepper throwing 39 TD's in a season with Moss, Carter and Reed at his disposal.

 

I hate to look at it that negatively but an EXTRA $40M-$70M to sign otherwise the same player ain't chump change.........that's decision making money.

 

That's where sending Cleveland a late round pick for Josh Gordon and hitting the lotto on him could become a double short-term success but long term problem...........if he plays great it makes Tyrod look like an All Pro and then both hit free agency after the season.

 

This goes back to the Fitz argument because there are ramifications for making moves that can turn into great moves in the interim but handcuff you later.

 

The Jets have a choice to make........but IMO the money they are trying to save isn't worth tossing a season away with a talented and very veteran roster like they have.