The "All You need is a good QB" fallacy---3 Counter Examples

[metzelaars_lives]

So what happened to the elite Luck and Flacco? Meanwhile Dalton plays at an elite level.

Luck has been injured all season and Flacco's team has been decimated by injuries while the Bengals have one of the more complete teams in the NFL and have remained most injury free. Dalton + complete healthy team > Flacco + crippled by injuries team. Does not prove any point whatsoever. A few weeks ago, Osweiler + complete healthy team > Brady + absolutely destroyed by injuries team.

[Marty McFly]

This has been bandied about for a long time, and while it definitely is easier to win win a good QB, it isn't the be all end all.

 

Exhibit A: Philip Rivers and San Diego. Rivers made the playoffs his first 4 years as a starter when the team was an offensive juggernaut finishing 1st, 5th, 2nd and 4th in the NFL in points per game. However the team has only made the playoffs once in the last 6 seasons(including this year where they are battling with the Browns for the 1 overall draft pick), including missing in 2010, a season where they inexplicably missed the playoffs after finishing the regular season #1 in both offense AND defense---a near impossible feat. Granted, some of this has been bad luck, as the Chargers have finished 9-7 3 times during this stretch, but only made the playoffs one season. They haven't been horrible, other than this year, finishing 8-8 and 7-9 the other 2 seasons, but it flies in the face of logic according to those saying that "all you need is a great QB". By any measure, Rivers HAS been great. Even this season, Rivers is completing over 67% of his passes, throwing 23 TDs vs 9 INT's, averaging over 300 yards per game with a good yards/attempt metric of 7.5 and a QB rating of 97.1. For his career, Rivers has a 95.8 QB rating, a very good 275 TD to 131 INT ratio(slightly over 2 TDs for every INT), a 7.8 Y/A, and a 65% completion percentage. There is nobody out there that can say Rivers isn't a very good, borderline elite QB, but yet his teams have missed the playoffs 5 of the last 6 seasons.

 

Exhibit B: Matt Ryan and Atlanta. Ryan made the playoffs in 4 of his first 5 years as starter, missing out the one season with a 9-7 record. However, the last 3 years has seen Atlanta flailing, including this season where they started 5-0 and are tailing off fast, going 1-6 in their last 7 games, likely missing the playoffs for a 3rd straight season, barring a miraculous turnaround and a collapse by Seattle or Minnesota.

Again, Ryan fits the definition of a good to very good QB...career numbers 64.3% completions, 5 straight seasons of more than 4,000 yards(I'm including this year, which is a mere formality if he doesn't get hurt, as he needs barely over 500 yards in the last 4 games), QB Rating of 90.8, Y/A of 7.2, 20 4th Quarter comebacks and 27 Game Winning Drives. Yet the team has been mostly awful the last 3 seasons going a combined 16-28. Again, this dispels the notion a good QB is "all you need". Obviously it isn't, or Atlanta would be in the playoffs every year.

 

Exhibit C: Drew Brees and New Orleans. Brees has put up amazing, HOF worthy, if not record setting numbers in New Orleans, but this will be the 2nd straight season and 3rd in the last 4 years New Orleans will be outside looking in come January. In fact, while New Orleans has never finished lower than 6th in offense while Brees has been there, including 1st 5 times, they have only made the playoffs 5 of his 10 seasons. Brees is not simply a good or very good QB. He is an elite QB, every bit as elite as Brady or Manning has been. Since he has been at New Orleans(10 seasons including this year), he is completing 67.5% of his passes, thrown for an astounding 339 TDs versus only 153 INT(an AVERAGE of 34 TDs versus 15 INT for 10 seasons), led the league in passing yards 5 seasons, thrown for over 5,000 yards 4 seasons, led the league in completion percentage 3 seasons, including 2 seasons over 70%(absolutely ridiculous!), led the league in TD passes 4 times, has an excellent Y/A of 7.7 as his 10 year average, led the league in Yards per game 5 times, and has averaged over 300 yards per game for a SEASON 6 times, including the last 5 seasons straight(and counting), and has a 10 year AVERAGE in New Orleans of 306 yards per game. Brees QB Rating of 98.6 over the last 10 years has been one of the best in football and has led 21 4th quarter comebacks and 28 Game Winning Drives in his time there. These are elite, hall of fame numbers he is putting up, and yet its not enough the last 3 of the last 4 years, and hasn't been enough for 5 of the 10 seasons he has been there. You simply CANNOT play much better at his position than Brees has.

 

People cannot simply say that "All you need is a great QB" anymore...it just isn't true. Yeah, it helps, but in the grand scheme of things its only a piece of the puzzle. A very important piece, no doubt, but just a piece nonetheless...together, these QBs have made 17 pro bowls and 1 all-pro appearance, and yet their teams have missed the playoffs 14 of 28 times...so basically you are looking at a 50% chance...

 

Great Post.

[FireChan]

This has been bandied about for a long time, and while it definitely is easier to win win a good QB, it isn't the be all end all.

 

Exhibit A: Philip Rivers and San Diego. Rivers made the playoffs his first 4 years as a starter when the team was an offensive juggernaut finishing 1st, 5th, 2nd and 4th in the NFL in points per game. However the team has only made the playoffs once in the last 6 seasons(including this year where they are battling with the Browns for the 1 overall draft pick), including missing in 2010, a season where they inexplicably missed the playoffs after finishing the regular season #1 in both offense AND defense---a near impossible feat. Granted, some of this has been bad luck, as the Chargers have finished 9-7 3 times during this stretch, but only made the playoffs one season. They haven't been horrible, other than this year, finishing 8-8 and 7-9 the other 2 seasons, but it flies in the face of logic according to those saying that "all you need is a great QB". By any measure, Rivers HAS been great. Even this season, Rivers is completing over 67% of his passes, throwing 23 TDs vs 9 INT's, averaging over 300 yards per game with a good yards/attempt metric of 7.5 and a QB rating of 97.1. For his career, Rivers has a 95.8 QB rating, a very good 275 TD to 131 INT ratio(slightly over 2 TDs for every INT), a 7.8 Y/A, and a 65% completion percentage. There is nobody out there that can say Rivers isn't a very good, borderline elite QB, but yet his teams have missed the playoffs 5 of the last 6 seasons.

 

Exhibit B: Matt Ryan and Atlanta. Ryan made the playoffs in 4 of his first 5 years as starter, missing out the one season with a 9-7 record. However, the last 3 years has seen Atlanta flailing, including this season where they started 5-0 and are tailing off fast, going 1-6 in their last 7 games, likely missing the playoffs for a 3rd straight season, barring a miraculous turnaround and a collapse by Seattle or Minnesota.

Again, Ryan fits the definition of a good to very good QB...career numbers 64.3% completions, 5 straight seasons of more than 4,000 yards(I'm including this year, which is a mere formality if he doesn't get hurt, as he needs barely over 500 yards in the last 4 games), QB Rating of 90.8, Y/A of 7.2, 20 4th Quarter comebacks and 27 Game Winning Drives. Yet the team has been mostly awful the last 3 seasons going a combined 16-28. Again, this dispels the notion a good QB is "all you need". Obviously it isn't, or Atlanta would be in the playoffs every year.

 

Exhibit C: Drew Brees and New Orleans. Brees has put up amazing, HOF worthy, if not record setting numbers in New Orleans, but this will be the 2nd straight season and 3rd in the last 4 years New Orleans will be outside looking in come January. In fact, while New Orleans has never finished lower than 6th in offense while Brees has been there, including 1st 5 times, they have only made the playoffs 5 of his 10 seasons. Brees is not simply a good or very good QB. He is an elite QB, every bit as elite as Brady or Manning has been. Since he has been at New Orleans(10 seasons including this year), he is completing 67.5% of his passes, thrown for an astounding 339 TDs versus only 153 INT(an AVERAGE of 34 TDs versus 15 INT for 10 seasons), led the league in passing yards 5 seasons, thrown for over 5,000 yards 4 seasons, led the league in completion percentage 3 seasons, including 2 seasons over 70%(absolutely ridiculous!), led the league in TD passes 4 times, has an excellent Y/A of 7.7 as his 10 year average, led the league in Yards per game 5 times, and has averaged over 300 yards per game for a SEASON 6 times, including the last 5 seasons straight(and counting), and has a 10 year AVERAGE in New Orleans of 306 yards per game. Brees QB Rating of 98.6 over the last 10 years has been one of the best in football and has led 21 4th quarter comebacks and 28 Game Winning Drives in his time there. These are elite, hall of fame numbers he is putting up, and yet its not enough the last 3 of the last 4 years, and hasn't been enough for 5 of the 10 seasons he has been there. You simply CANNOT play much better at his position than Brees has.

 

People cannot simply say that "All you need is a great QB" anymore...it just isn't true. Yeah, it helps, but in the grand scheme of things its only a piece of the puzzle. A very important piece, no doubt, but just a piece nonetheless...together, these QBs have made 17 pro bowls and 1 all-pro appearance, and yet their teams have missed the playoffs 14 of 28 times...so basically you are looking at a 50% chance...

50% chance vs the chance of the teams without good QB's... I'm sure that's close to 50%, right? Austin Davis and Chad Henne always make the playoffs 50% of the time. Fitz too. Hell, McCown has made it 50% of the time, right?

[GunnerBill]

I think the point is if you have an "elite" quarterback it almost doesn't matter what is around him. If you just have a very good, franchise level QB, then actually you need a team and good coaching as well.

 

The Bills in recent years haven't had anything even approaching the lesser of the two. If Tyrod proves to be a good franchise level QB then we will still need a team and good coaching around him to win.

Luck has been injured all season and Flacco's team has been decimated by injuries while the Bengals have one of the more complete teams in the NFL and have remained most injury free. Dalton + complete healthy team > Flacco + crippled by injuries team. Does not prove any point whatsoever. A few weeks ago, Osweiler + complete healthy team > Brady + absolutely destroyed by injuries team.

And Flacco's decimated team have been in every single game.

[boater]

 

 

Exactly. Once you get your QB up into that pay stratosphere, you have to crush your draft picks to keep the pipeline of cheap talent. The Saints / Falcons / Chargers have done an incredibly bad job in the draft, leaving massive holes all over their rosters. It absolutely takes a good management team around a good QB, but if you don't have a good QB you'll be drafting top 10 instead of in the 20s more times than not.

True that. A good QB and good management (long term strategic roster management and scouting).

 

Whaley is semi-proven to be the good management piece.

 

Yet there are those who want to let him go, and replace him with.... what? A more proven GM who wants to be in Bflo is sitting unemployed somewhere?

[What a Tuel]

Exactly. Look back over the last 20 years and tell me what has happened more: a great QB winning a Super Bowl with an average/competent roster or a complete team wining a Super Bowl with competent/"game managing" QB play.

 

How many great QB's with an average/competent roster lost or did not make it to the super bowl in those years?

[Sisyphean Bills]

True that. A good QB and good management (long term strategic roster management and scouting).

 

Whaley is semi-proven to be the good management piece.

 

Yet there are those who want to let him go, and replace him with.... what? A more proven GM who wants to be in Bflo is sitting unemployed somewhere?

 

"Semi-proven" in what way? He has taken a mediocre team and transformed them into a mediocre team on the scoreboard to date.

[Maury Ballstein]

So what happened to the elite Luck and Flacco? .

Whats your point ? Luck and Flacco are hurt so elite qb's are bad now ?

 

You gonna put your money on Dalton and the annual Bengals playoff loss ?

[hondo in seattle]

This has been bandied about for a long time, and while it definitely is easier to win win a good QB, it isn't the be all end all.

 

Exhibit A: Philip Rivers and San Diego. Rivers made the playoffs his first 4 years as a starter when the team was an offensive juggernaut finishing 1st, 5th, 2nd and 4th in the NFL in points per game. However the team has only made the playoffs once in the last 6 seasons(including this year where they are battling with the Browns for the 1 overall draft pick), including missing in 2010, a season where they inexplicably missed the playoffs after finishing the regular season #1 in both offense AND defense---a near impossible feat. Granted, some of this has been bad luck, as the Chargers have finished 9-7 3 times during this stretch, but only made the playoffs one season. They haven't been horrible, other than this year, finishing 8-8 and 7-9 the other 2 seasons, but it flies in the face of logic according to those saying that "all you need is a great QB". By any measure, Rivers HAS been great. Even this season, Rivers is completing over 67% of his passes, throwing 23 TDs vs 9 INT's, averaging over 300 yards per game with a good yards/attempt metric of 7.5 and a QB rating of 97.1. For his career, Rivers has a 95.8 QB rating, a very good 275 TD to 131 INT ratio(slightly over 2 TDs for every INT), a 7.8 Y/A, and a 65% completion percentage. There is nobody out there that can say Rivers isn't a very good, borderline elite QB, but yet his teams have missed the playoffs 5 of the last 6 seasons.

 

Exhibit B: Matt Ryan and Atlanta. Ryan made the playoffs in 4 of his first 5 years as starter, missing out the one season with a 9-7 record. However, the last 3 years has seen Atlanta flailing, including this season where they started 5-0 and are tailing off fast, going 1-6 in their last 7 games, likely missing the playoffs for a 3rd straight season, barring a miraculous turnaround and a collapse by Seattle or Minnesota.

Again, Ryan fits the definition of a good to very good QB...career numbers 64.3% completions, 5 straight seasons of more than 4,000 yards(I'm including this year, which is a mere formality if he doesn't get hurt, as he needs barely over 500 yards in the last 4 games), QB Rating of 90.8, Y/A of 7.2, 20 4th Quarter comebacks and 27 Game Winning Drives. Yet the team has been mostly awful the last 3 seasons going a combined 16-28. Again, this dispels the notion a good QB is "all you need". Obviously it isn't, or Atlanta would be in the playoffs every year.

 

Exhibit C: Drew Brees and New Orleans. Brees has put up amazing, HOF worthy, if not record setting numbers in New Orleans, but this will be the 2nd straight season and 3rd in the last 4 years New Orleans will be outside looking in come January. In fact, while New Orleans has never finished lower than 6th in offense while Brees has been there, including 1st 5 times, they have only made the playoffs 5 of his 10 seasons. Brees is not simply a good or very good QB. He is an elite QB, every bit as elite as Brady or Manning has been. Since he has been at New Orleans(10 seasons including this year), he is completing 67.5% of his passes, thrown for an astounding 339 TDs versus only 153 INT(an AVERAGE of 34 TDs versus 15 INT for 10 seasons), led the league in passing yards 5 seasons, thrown for over 5,000 yards 4 seasons, led the league in completion percentage 3 seasons, including 2 seasons over 70%(absolutely ridiculous!), led the league in TD passes 4 times, has an excellent Y/A of 7.7 as his 10 year average, led the league in Yards per game 5 times, and has averaged over 300 yards per game for a SEASON 6 times, including the last 5 seasons straight(and counting), and has a 10 year AVERAGE in New Orleans of 306 yards per game. Brees QB Rating of 98.6 over the last 10 years has been one of the best in football and has led 21 4th quarter comebacks and 28 Game Winning Drives in his time there. These are elite, hall of fame numbers he is putting up, and yet its not enough the last 3 of the last 4 years, and hasn't been enough for 5 of the 10 seasons he has been there. You simply CANNOT play much better at his position than Brees has.

 

People cannot simply say that "All you need is a great QB" anymore...it just isn't true. Yeah, it helps, but in the grand scheme of things its only a piece of the puzzle. A very important piece, no doubt, but just a piece nonetheless...together, these QBs have made 17 pro bowls and 1 all-pro appearance, and yet their teams have missed the playoffs 14 of 28 times...so basically you are looking at a 50% chance...

 

 

Excellent research to support a good point.

 

From a different perspective, Tom Brady is not the sole reason the Pats get into the playoffs every year nor the sole reason Belichick will get into the HOF.

Edited December 12, 2015 by hondo in seattle

[BillsVet]

If you were building a NFL team, would it begin with finding the QB (if you don't have one) or trying to build all the other pieces first a la Buddy Nix from 2010-12?

 

That's the reason teams draft QB's high and early during a rebuild. Positional value being what it is, getting the QB means more to a team than any other position...by far. And, you're probably going to need time to develop that QB. So, going the route of building the defense first over the QB means if you draft a guy 2 years in, those high defensive picks or other offensive players have expiring contracts when (and if) the QB does develop.

 

The Nix/Whaley rebuild is now into its 6th year. And much of it has to do with not fixing the QB position early in that rebuild. Hopefully TT doesn't go the route of most athlete QBs and becomes their guy. Or else this rebuild will probably go into a 7th or 8th year.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

It's certainly real easy to say you need that elite QB, no way can you be proven wrong. But if you are correct, to avoid disappointment, I'd suggest you stop rooting for the Bill's Root for Green Bay as they are one team with an elite QB and is in the early parts of his prime so you'll be happy for many years to come. Out of your list below of elite QB's the only one's I'd really say are truly elite are Brady, P Manning, and Rodgers. The others are good to very good, as long as you can keep a good strong team around them, they can look like elite. Case in point, how'd Baltimore look this year, elite QB Flacco leads them to what was it, 3-7 before getting hurt. As others have already pointed out, once guys like a Flacco, Ryan, etc rookie contract ends and they demand to paid like the big boys and girls, you can no longer afford the great players around them and they can't carry the team themselves.

 

So the obvious answer is you don't get a Flacco, you go out and get a Rodgers. And hold Whaley accountable, give him one more year to find that guy if not fire him. Well if it were that easy, 28 other teams would all have Brady's too, but none do. They are doing the same as Buffalo is, trying different things, FA's who were OK with other teams, hoping you can surround them with enough talent to make them look real good, like Dilfer did with Baltimore. Or drafting #1 or #2 overall picks on QB's only to see them fail, or over-drafting a guy like the Bills did with Manual. Or hope you get lucky like Seattle did with Wilson, though I'm not all that certain Wilson isn't just another one of these guys who will look real good wit ha great team around him. He will be the classic case study of what happens when you pay elite money to and decent to good QB and can no longer afford the great talent around him. Let's see what he looks like in a couple of years. And please don't try and make the argument that Seattle is a well run team and that's why the were smart enough to draft Wilson where as Whaley wasn't smart enough to do that. If Seattle really was that smart they would have drafted him in the 1st or 2nd round, you'd never take the chance on losing him to another team.

 

Is Cam Newton really an elite QB or is he just a freak of nature, I think that's more the case, but it may be easier to find another guy like him than a Brady or a Rodgers. The game has got to fast, players to big and strong, coaching to advanced to expect anyone to stand back there and make good choices. Take away the pass rush likely EJ could be a great QB as he has the arm and the body, just not the mind. That's the toughest part these days is finding the mind. One other person with the mind is Fitz, but not the arm to go with it. I think that's why whenever Fitz goes to a new team he'll look great for a little while as he has a new system and with his mind and some creative coaching, can out smart the defense for some point of time, but eventually they will catch up, then he looks like the Fitz of old. So if your only answer is get a Rodgers or Brady, you'll likely be sad as we and most other teams have a much better chance of finding a Dilfer than one of them

 

Nothing matters until you have a QB =/= All you need is a QB.

 

 

 

And Im saying no. You need an elite QB to win consistently!

 

Playoffs last year:

 

AFC: Pats, Denver, Pitt, Indy, Cincy, Baltimore: Only big red from Cincy is not considered an elite QB

 

NFC: Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas, Carolina, Arizona, Detroit: Only Matt Stafford is not considered an elite QB

 

Both CIncy and Stafford lost first round

 

Playoffs 2014:

 

AFC: Denver, Pats, Cincy, Indy, KC, Chiefs: Once again Big Red from Cincy and Smith from Chiefs are not considered elite

 

NFC: Seattle, Carolina, Philly, Green Bay, San Fran, Saints: Foles and Kapernick ( although he had a great rookie year) are not considered elite

 

And sure enough: Chiefs lost first round as well as Cincy and Philly.

 

 

So only Kaepernick was the average QB who advanced passed the second round. And that team was stacked on defense.

 

BOOM! The myth of the myth is debunked!

 

 

OK, I changed my mind, please give me a Trent Dilfer. I love watching crappy football and low scoring affairs.

 

:sick:

 

I would hate to have Joe Flacco. I prefer Fitz! I would hate to have Eli Manning, give me Alex Smith. I would hate to have Andrew Luck give me any other.

[MarkyMannn]

it's never been the "only" thing.....it's just the most important thing.

For sure! Closer to home to prove the point

 

TT -->

 

EJ -->

[Mojo44]

The OP's theory has several major flaws:

 

 

First, as one poster has noted, no one with a modicum of football sense would say all you need is a QB. Classic straw man fallacy. You argue a point which no one takes the opposite side.

 

Second, cherry picking QB's who have great seasons and not make the playoffs is statistically flawed. Only a few teams get to the playoffs and only two get to the SB. Probability alone shows this reasoning to be flawed. The major point is that virtually all playoff teams have good QB play. Still, only a few get in. Also, as us Bills fans know all too well, there are always a few games in the season that are decided by one or two crucial plays that could have gone either way and could be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

 

Finally, the OP doesn't seem to say this but there is the now classic cherry picking logic of a QB who is a game manager but not elite who get to the SB. The one and seemingly only real example of this is Trent Dilfer. But when you look at other "non elite" QB's who get there team to the SB they have great years, for example Steve Berline(bad spell, I know) and Rich Gannon. If these guys put up the numbers they did every year like they did in their SB years they would be in the HOF.

 

Just like with money, a top QB isn't everything, but it's way ahead of whatever is in second place.

[QCity]

 

A better metric, I think, is the record of teams for which these QBs have started for over the long haul:

 

Rivers: 91-65; 5 playoff appearance in 10 years

 

Ryan: 72-50; 4 playoff appearances in 7 seasons (8 if you include this one, but the jury is still out)

 

Brees: 90-63 with the Saints; 121-91 overall; 5 playoff appearances in 10 years with NO; 6 playoff appearances in 14 seasons total (including this one)

 

The Bills record since 2001 (the onset of the post-Flutie era; Flutie [38-28] is arguably the last playoff-worthy QB they've had): 95-141; 0 playoff appearances

 

 

And there you go.

 

Sample size people, sample size.

[Beef Jerky]

What the OP doesn't realize it what is said "All you need to be a consistent contender is a good QB" which is true.