An Honest look at the QB situation

[CosmicBills]

Before reading anything more, you should know this about me: I don’t care who the QB of the Bills is. I’m not a Drew guy. I’m not a JP guy. I’m a Bills guy. All I want is wins. That being said, here is how I see this situation:

 

So far there appears to be three camps on this situation. The first camp wants Drew to stay because the Bills are close to being a contender. The second camp believes Drew is the biggest problem on the team, still they don’t want to see JP take over because “using a rookie sets the team back”. The final camp feels the move to JP, above all other options, makes the most sense for this team. Consider me in the third camp.

 

Let’s be honest. The Bills are not one player away from being a Super Bowl team. They aren’t even one player away from being a playoff team. I loved how this team fought and clawed their way into contention last year, but let’s face it. It was a mirage. This team benefited from a weak schedule that propped them up to something more than what they really were. While it’s certainly not fair to blame the Bills for their schedule, it is equally unfair ignore the issue. This team didn’t beat anyone down the stretch. They lost to NE, Baltimore and to Pittsburgh. All games they needed. Certainly the QB was a large part of the problem…but not the only part. There are plenty of other holes on this team:

 

1)The O-Line: They came around, but the left side still needs work, especially if JJ departs.

 

2)The TE’s need to be upgraded. Ehus really came on last year, but he blew out his ACL…for the second time…so who knows what he will be like next year. Campbell was solid – not spectacular – but he too injured his knee and there are some doubts as to how soon he will be ready to play. That leaves RN as the only TE. Uh-oh.

 

3)I love the way this team plays Defense, but something is missing. I can’t figure out what. Is it a personnel problem? Scheme? Heart? When the game was on the line, this “great” defense folded like a cheap suit. I know it’s blasphemy, but it’s the truth. Against the Jags and the Jets the team had the lead, and the D collapsed. Against Oakland and Baltimore this team allowed mediocre players to look great and torch the D. NE made the Bills look like armatures on Sunday night. But the worst, most embarrassing moment came against the Steelers. There, the great D of the Bills get whooped by second and third stringers. That is inexcusable. Like I said, something is missing.

 

4)We all loved the Special teams, but it’s not a good sign when your team punts everytime rather than attempt a 45 yard FG. I’m on record as saying that Rian Lindell is okay…I am re-thinking that opinion. This team needs a kicker.

 

Add all those issues up, throw in a giant hole at QB and you see this team is NOT a playoff team. So, if this team is not a true contender (painful to admit) then what would be the purpose of bringing in a Warner, Garcia or McNair (or any veteran STARTING QB)? A new QB alone won’t solve the problems.

 

The Bills invested a lot in JP, too much to justify him sitting on the bench when he could be on the field. I’m not saying JP is going to be great, he may stink. He may be terrible. But he may be the next Jim Kelly. The point is, how are we going to know unless he plays? And since this team isn’t a contender, what are they really risking by turning the team over to a first year starter?

 

I know there are those of you out there screaming: “We are going to take a huge step back!!!!”…but a step back from what? 8-8? 9-7? 3-13? So we shouldn’t risk taking a step back from mediocre? That seems insane to me.

 

But it’s not all doom and gloom. There is a bright side to JP taking over. He is being put into a great position. A position where he won’t have to carry this team like so many first round draft picks are asked to do. Instead, he can just be a PART of the team while he gets his feet wet. Here are the advantages JP has:

 

1)He isn’t a rookie. He has had a year of practice, he’s been through mini-camps, been through training camps, he’s watched film, he’s attended meetings. That may not sound impressive, but it is. There isn’t that pressure or angst for him now. He knows what to expect come August. That is huge.

 

2)He has the benefit of being with an offensive oriented coach. This staff is fantastic. Not only does he have a great (if not the best) position coach, he also has Clements and MM – guys who have shown the ability to devise schemes that best utilize their players strengths and mask their weaknesses. In short, JP won’t be asked to do anything more than he is capable of.

 

3)He has a budding superstar RB behind him taking the pressure off.

 

4)He has 2 great WRs to throw the ball to.

 

When it’s all said and done, JP is in the perfect position to succeed in the NFL. That is also great for the fans too, because we will know (very quickly) if he is the real deal or not. And if he’s not, what have we really lost? Another mediocre season…at best!

 

But if he turns out to be great, then won’t it all be worth it?

[KOKBILLS]

Before reading anything more, you should know this about me: I don’t care who the QB of the Bills is.  I’m not a Drew guy. I’m not a JP guy. I’m a Bills guy. All I want is wins. That being said, here is how I see this situation:

 

So far there appears to be three camps on this situation. The first camp wants Drew to stay because the Bills are close to being a contender. The second camp believes Drew is the biggest problem on the team, still they don’t want to see JP take over because “using a rookie sets the team back”. The final camp feels the move to JP, above all other options, makes the most sense for this team. Consider me in the third camp.

 

Let’s be honest. The Bills are not one player away from being a Super Bowl team. They aren’t even one player away from being a playoff team. I loved how this team fought and clawed their way into contention last year, but let’s face it. It was a mirage. This team benefited from a weak schedule that propped them up to something more than what they really were. While it’s certainly not fair to blame the Bills for their schedule, it is equally unfair ignore the issue. This team didn’t beat anyone down the stretch. They lost to NE, Baltimore and to Pittsburgh. All games they needed. Certainly the QB was a large part of the problem…but not the only part. There are plenty of other holes on this team:

 

1)The O-Line: They came around, but the left side still needs work, especially if JJ departs.

 

2)The TE’s need to be upgraded. Ehus really came on last year, but he blew out his ACL…for the second time…so who knows what he will be like next year. Campbell was solid – not spectacular – but he too injured his knee and there are some doubts as to how soon he will be ready to play. That leaves RN as the only TE. Uh-oh.

 

3)I love the way this team plays Defense, but something is missing. I can’t figure out what. Is it a personnel problem? Scheme? Heart? When the game was on the line, this “great” defense folded like a cheap suit. I know it’s blasphemy, but it’s the truth. Against the Jags and the Jets the team had the lead, and the D collapsed. Against Oakland and Baltimore this team allowed mediocre players to look great and torch the D. NE made the Bills look like armatures on Sunday night. But the worst, most embarrassing moment came against the Steelers. There, the great D of the Bills get whooped by second and third stringers. That is inexcusable. Like I said, something is missing.

 

4)We all loved the Special teams, but it’s not a good sign when your team punts everytime rather than attempt a 45 yard FG. I’m on record as saying that Rian Lindell is okay…I am re-thinking that opinion. This team needs a kicker.

 

Add all those issues up, throw in a giant hole at QB and you see this team is NOT a playoff team. So, if this team is not a  true contender (painful to admit) then what would be the purpose of bringing in a Warner, Garcia or McNair (or any veteran STARTING QB)? A new QB alone won’t solve the problems.

 

The Bills invested a lot in JP, too much to justify him sitting on the bench when he could be on the field. I’m not saying JP is going to be great, he may stink. He may be terrible. But he may be the next Jim Kelly. The point is, how are we going to know unless he plays? And since this team isn’t a contender, what are they really risking by turning the team over to a first year starter?

 

I know there are those of you out there screaming: “We are going to take a huge step back!!!!”…but a step back from what? 8-8? 9-7? 3-13? So we shouldn’t risk taking a step back from mediocre? That seems insane to me.

 

But it’s not all doom and gloom. There is a bright side to JP taking over. He is being put into a great position. A position where he won’t have to carry this team like so many first round draft picks are asked to do. Instead, he can just be a PART of the team while he gets his feet wet. Here are the advantages JP has:

 

1)He isn’t a rookie. He has had a year of practice, he’s been through mini-camps, been through training camps, he’s watched film, he’s attended meetings. That may not sound impressive, but it is. There isn’t that pressure or angst for him now. He knows what to expect come August. That is huge.

 

2)He has the benefit of being with an offensive oriented coach. This staff is fantastic. Not only does he have a great (if not the best) position coach, he also has Clements and MM – guys who have shown the ability to devise schemes that best utilize their players strengths and mask their weaknesses. In short, JP won’t be asked to do anything more than he is capable of.

 

3)He has a budding superstar RB behind him taking the pressure off.

 

4)He has 2 great WRs to throw the ball to.

 

When it’s all said and done, JP is in the perfect position to succeed in the NFL. That is also great for the fans too, because we will know (very quickly) if he is the real deal or not. And if he’s not, what have we really lost? Another mediocre season…at best!

 

But if he turns out to be great, then won’t it all be worth it?

242043[/snapback]

 

Good Post...and I mostly agree...

 

But I do believe ASSUMING JP can improve on Bledsoe's 13th in the AFC, and 25th in the NFL QB performance of 2004 (and of coarse assuming they don't have a major fall off on Defense or ST's), the Bills are truly one Player away from being a Playoff Team...Granted it's a sizable assumtion, but nonetheless...

 

Super Bowl Contender...That's a whole different issue...Baby steps...Baby steps...

[CosmicBills]

Good Post...and I mostly agree...

 

But I do believe ASSUMING JP can improve on Bledsoe's 13th in the AFC, and 25th in the NFL QB performance of 2004 (and of coarse assuming they don't have a major fall off on Defense or ST's), the Bills are truly one Player away from being a Playoff Team...Granted it's a sizable assumtion, but nonetheless...

 

Super Bowl Contender...That's a whole different issue...Baby steps...Baby steps...

242062[/snapback]

 

I would love it (obviously) if it happened. But I think we have to prepare for an up and down season with JP. Personally I think he is going to be good...but how many first year QBs are, you know what I mean?

 

If this team was in a different division (or the NFC), then I would be against moving to JP right now, because they could get into the playoffs. But being in the same division as the Pats kills them. The Pats are going to win the AFC East again, regardless of who the Bills' QB is. That leaves them fighting for a WC, a tough proposition in the competitive AFC.

[BillsGuyInMalta]

One thing Losman does have going for him is that its almost impossible to find a better situation for a rookie QB to start in. He's got a stud RB who is only going to get better next year (and getting better on a +1,000 yard, 13 TD season is damn scary), he's got a Pro Bowl veteran WR and an explosive, down the field megastar in the making. TD already stated that his #1 intention this offseason is to improve the line, so more help is already coming to solidiy the O-Line for him. That, and he has the #2 Defense and #1 special teams in the NFL to back him up. Losman will be given more than most QBs are given for their first crack at the starting position.

[bills_fan]

I do agree with your post. I just wish I knew what was wrong with the D and how to fix it!!

[eSJayDee]

I disagree that we're that far away from the playoffs. Look at it this way:

 

We had the most productive ST in the league.

By most measurements, we were a top 5 defense. Using a little subjectivity and combining those stat measures, I think we are a top 5 Dee.

Our offense, when clicking, reached the level of mediocrity. Overall, not actually looking at stats, but I would estimate that we're in the bottom 10, but probably not bottom 5.

 

There's 12 teams that make the playoffs. Roughly speaking, if your combined rankings of the above individual units ranks in the top 12, you're pretty likely to make the playoffs. If we maintain our Dee & ST in the top 5, having an offense rank even 15 should yield very good chances of making the playoffs. Heck, top 20 might even do it.

 

Is it possible to replace only 1 player w/ another & get that sort of improvement? I think so. Can JPL replacing Bledsoe result in that sort of improvement? I don't know, but I hope so and I can only assume that the braintrust at OBD would think he has that capability or else they wouldn't have selected him at such a high price.

[Corp000085]

greg, that post made sense... It was long, but broken up into clearly read paragraphs and sections, and was insightful. Let me be the first to ask What's wrong with you?? Posts that make sense and are objective are no use to TSW!! Mods, please block this tool...

 

j/k

 

I pretty much agree with everything you've said, especially about the defense... They were anything but great. Sure, stop cleveland on 1st and 10, ahead by 21, but stop jax on 4th and long with them down by 4 with 1:00 remaining, and you can't... That defense was really good, but the only thing that seemed to seperate them from great is realizing what week 1=week 17

[BuffaloRebound]

There really is not much to lose and much to gain replacing Drew with Losman. It is obvious we were never going to win a championship with Bledsoe. Groundhog's day had to end. And what is with all the 'we better make the playoffs'-crap? That is just a loser mediocre attitude. That's all people want to do? What more evidence do people need we will never sniff the Patriots in our division or any of the other elite teams in the AFC with Bledsoe at QB?

[KnightRider]

The defense folding is a bit of puzzler. If I were the grassy knoll type, I'd say it was the D saying, let the O win a game for a change. They ought to against 3rd stringers...

[Mike in Syracuse]

Thank you for breaking the board trend by posting in clear, coherent manner.

 

You have some excellent observations but are overlooking one additional point. JP is going to benefit from having a former head coach, and a damn good one, as his personal QB coach. That can't hurt!

[Rubes]

Somewhere out there FFS is laughing at you.

[Simon]

Somewhere out there FFS is laughing at you.

242150[/snapback]

 

 

This team benefited from a weak schedule that propped them up to something more than what they really were.

Yeah except for the niggling little fact that we are still stuck in what is by far the NFL's toughest division. And that we played half of our games against playoff bound teams. And that we played Jacksonville with thier starting QB and that we played Oakland with Gannon and that we played Cinci with their veteran QB.

But yeah, our schedule was way weaker than everybody else's.

[Bill from NYC]

   

Yeah except for the niggling little fact that we are still stuck in what is by far the NFL's toughest division. And that we played half of our games against playoff bound teams. And that we played Jacksonville with thier starting QB and that we played Oakland with Gannon and that we played Cinci with their veteran QB.

But yeah, our schedule was way weaker than everybody else's. 

242187[/snapback]

 

Actually, I liked his post. It offered a sensible way of looking at the situation, but I fully agree with you. The schedule was not so easy. Many viewed the Rams and Seahawks as cakewalks. I did not.

They also were able to win on the road this season.

The Bills improved in 04. Maybe not as fast as most would have cared for, but it was an improvement nonetheless.

[aussiew]

I've said it before and I'll say it again... as much as I'm supporting JP, I don't believe he's physically strong enough for the NFL defenses he'll meet week after week on the field. I suspect more injuries and only hope we have strength and experience in our back up QBs

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I've said it before and I'll say it again... as much as I'm supporting JP, I don't believe he's physically strong enough for the NFL defenses he'll meet week after week on the field. I suspect more injuries and only hope we have strength and experience in our back up QBs

242288[/snapback]

 

I concur, he does look frail. But at least he can move around and (hopefully) avoid injury.

[CosmicBills]

   

Yeah except for the niggling little fact that we are still stuck in what is by far the NFL's toughest division. And that we played half of our games against playoff bound teams. And that we played Jacksonville with thier starting QB and that we played Oakland with Gannon and that we played Cinci with their veteran QB.

But yeah, our schedule was way weaker than everybody else's. 

242187[/snapback]

 

Of all those games you mentioned, the Bills were only 1-2...and Cincy was playing without their starting QB (Kitna had been rusting on the bench all year).

 

But take a look at what I said. I never said they had the easiest schedule. I said they had a weak schedule. Of all the tough teams they played, who did they beat? The Jets once...anyone else?

 

They were swept by the Pats, beaten by NYJ, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Oakland, and Jacksonville. Those were the toughest teams on their schedule, and they were all loses. They built up their record by praying on the Dolphins (twice) the Browns and the weakest Conference in football (The NFC West). Most of their wins came against teams that will be drafting early in round 1. That's my point.

 

You can't blame the Bills, they didn't choose the schedule, but you would have to be blind describe their schedule as "tough".

 

But that's not even the point. The point is, even with this weak schedule the team didn't make the playoffs. So why are we to assume that they are "close"? Personally, I hope I am wrong, but the facts just don't bear that out. So, switching to JP isn't all that much of a risk because what have we got to lose? You know what I mean?

[Simon]

Of all those games you mentioned, the Bills were only 1-2...and Cincy was playing without their starting QB (Kitna had been rusting on the bench all year).

 

But take a look at what I said. I never said they had the easiest schedule. I said they had a weak schedule. Of all the tough teams they played, who did they beat? The Jets once...anyone else?

 

They were swept by the Pats, beaten by NYJ, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Oakland, and Jacksonville. Those were the toughest teams on their schedule, and they were all loses. They built up their record by praying on the Dolphins (twice) the Browns and the weakest Conference in football (The NFC West). Most of their wins came against teams that will be drafting early in round 1. That's my point.

 

You can't blame the Bills, they didn't choose the schedule, but you would have to be blind describe their schedule as "tough".

 

But that's not even the point. The point is, even with this weak schedule the team didn't make the playoffs. So why are we to assume that they are "close"? Personally, I hope I am wrong, but the facts just don't bear that out. So, switching to JP isn't all that much of a risk because what have we got to lose? You know what I mean?

242348[/snapback]

 

 

I only mentioned Kitna because at this point int heri careers he's probably slightly better than KidCarson.

As for the rest of the post I din't really dispute or agree with anything, I just thought that starting with the basic premise that we played a weak schedule was way off base.

 

SB champs twice and half their schedule against playoff teams.

 

You can't blame the Bills, they didn't choose the schedule, but you would have to be blind describe their schedule as "tough".

Since your vision is so superior, then you shouldn't have any problems pointing out all the teams who played half their schedule against playoff teams. Since trhe Bills schedule was so comparatively weak, then you shouldn't have any trouble coming up with a lenghty list, right?

 

The point is, even with this weak schedule the team didn't make the playoffs.

And my point is that, if you're basing your point on the assumed fact that the Bills played a weak schedule, when in fact they did not play a weak schedule, then your whole point becomes essentially flawed because its based on a flawed assumption.

Cya

[Bill from NYC]

>>>>>They were swept by the Pats, beaten by NYJ<<<<<

 

They also beat the jets. Does that count?

[Fan in Chicago]

Somewhere out there FFS is laughing at you.

242150[/snapback]

 

Careful now. You don't want to get FFS pissed off and make him type a long post.

[CosmicBills]

I only mentioned Kitna because at this point int heri careers he's probably slightly better than KidCarson.

As for the rest of the post I din't really dispute or agree with anything, I just thought that starting with the basic premise that we played a weak schedule was way off base.

 

SB champs twice and half their schedule against playoff teams.

Since your vision is so superior, then you shouldn't have any problems pointing out all the teams who played half their schedule against playoff teams. Since trhe Bills schedule was so comparatively weak, then you shouldn't have any trouble coming up with a lenghty list, right?

And my point is that, if you're basing your point on the assumed fact that the Bills played a weak schedule, when in fact they did not play a weak schedule, then your whole point becomes essentially flawed because its based on a flawed assumption.

Cya

242417[/snapback]

 

We are going over eachother's head and it's my fault- let me clarify....

 

The Bills didn't play a weak schedule, they just didn't beat any good teams.

 

Yes there were tough teams on their schedule (NE, Pitt, Baltimore, NYJ where their toughest foes...and Jax, Seattle and Cincy were boarderline in terms of talent). So they played 8 games against quality opponents and they only won 3 of those games, 2 of those wins (Cincy and Seattle) were boardline "top tier" teams.

 

So I'll give you they had a tougher schedule than some, but they didn't have any quality wins. Does that make more sense? And look at how they lost those tough games:

 

NE: Got killed, but they're the best team for a reason, no shame

 

NYJ: Split, but it's a divisional game so you throw the record books out the window when they play (same w/ the dophins...the Bills were much better than the fins, but both games were tight)

 

Pitt: The worse loss of the year. They were beaten by backups.

 

Baltimore: Even without their best RB, the Ravens still whooped the Bills.

 

Jax: Lost a game they should have won...at home

 

Seattle: Big win on the road. A quality win, I don't care if Seattle's WRs dropped 10 balls or not.

 

Cincy: Beat them on the road, but without their starting QB. Still, a quality win.

 

So the Bills had 3 quality wins of those games. The other 6? They came against Miami (2), St.Louis (terrible team, playoffs or not), Browns, 49ers, and Arizona.

 

If there was an RPI in the NFL, the Bills would have been near the bottom of the league.