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"Experts" Picks Week 12 vs the Chiefs


CodeMonkey

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CBS with Spread (Bills +3.5) : 7 take Chiefs, 1 took the Bills. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/against-the-spread/12)

CBS Straight Up: All 8 take Chiefs. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/straight-up/12)

ESPN: Clean sweep, all 12 and Pick'Em took the Chiefs with one not picking.. (http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks)

Microsoft Cortana (Went 9-5 in week 11): Chiefs 63% chance of winning. (http://www.cortanapredictions.com/)

FiveThirtyEight: (Went 10-4 in week 11): Chiefs 70% chance of winning with an Elo point spread of 6. (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/)

Amos: (Went 10-4 in week 11) Chiefs 66% chance of winning. (http://trevorbischoff.com/nfl-2015-week-12-predictions/)

FiveThirtyEight predicts a 8-8 season record for the Bills this season with a 31% (down from 36%) chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% (unchanged) chance of winning it all. Could be worse I suppose, 25% through the hockey season and it puts the Sabres chances of making the playoffs at 8.6% ;)

Amos predicts a 9-7 season record for the Bills.

SportsClubStats (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html) predicts a record of 8-8 for the Bills this season with a 33.2% (down from 40.9%) chance of making the playoffs.

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Edited by CodeMonkey
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I wonder ... how many times did they (man and machine) predict wrong for the Bills?

 

Man picks the Bills to lose; Bills W, man predict Bills to W the Bills to lose

538 is my favorite and it is easy to look back with them:

 

Won against Miami, given a 49% chance to win so it basically called a coin flip

 

Lost to the Giants when given a 72% chance to win

 

Lost to Jax when given a 76% chance to win

 

Beat the Jets when given a 44% chance to win

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If you ignore the coin flip, they have 6 right and 3 wrong so far. I think that would mean bet what they say, if anything :)

I must have misread the text as it might be misleading. As I read this the following were all wrong

 

Lost to the Giants when given a 72% chance to win - Who had 72% to win Bills or Giants?

Lost to Jax when given a 76% chance to win - Who had 76% to win Bills or Jax?

Beat the Jets when given a 44% chance to win - Who had 44% to win Bills or NYETS?

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Love this site: http://nflpickwatch.com/

 

So far, 94% pick Chiefs to win, though not all picks are in.

 

Interesting site.

 

"Team with the Best Defense" picks the Chiefs (58% correct on season)

"Team with the Best QB" picks Buffalo Bills (58% correct on season)

 

I would actually predict that the Bills defense plays better from here on out this season. I also think Alex Smith is the better QB, in terms of "who would I rather have on this team".

Edited by Wazzu Bill
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I must have misread the text as it might be misleading. As I read this the following were all wrong

 

Lost to the Giants when given a 72% chance to win - Who had 72% to win Bills or Giants?

Lost to Jax when given a 76% chance to win - Who had 76% to win Bills or Jax?

Beat the Jets when given a 44% chance to win - Who had 44% to win Bills or NYETS?

Bills had 72% chance to win against the Giants, and lost the game. Those are the 3 Bills games 538 got wrong (plus the coin flip) of the 10 that have been played.

CBS completed and ESPN added.

Edited by CodeMonkey
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Added sportsclubstats which thinks this KC game is pretty much do or die for the Bills.

If the Bills win, their chances of making it to the playoffs goes up to 60% whereas if they lose, it goes under 20%.

yeah, next two games pretty much say it all for this season.... two conference games against teams with same record. this is it. Go Bills

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Given the results of the season to date, there is little to suggest the Bills should win, particularly given TT's condition (either he doesn't play or will be limited if he does). KC's losses, except for the Bears, have come against the better teams in the league (and even the Bears aren't that bad with a healthy Cutler). Three of the Bills' losses have come against good teams, but the Giants are really no better than the healthy Bears and the Jags stink. The game is in KC, so they will have a good home field advantage. What gives people optimism that the Bills can pull this one out?

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yeah, next two games pretty much say it all for this season.... two conference games against teams with same record. this is it. Go Bills

true enough. do they have the character to recover after the deflating loss?

On a short week ?

 

This is a big deal game.

 

Go Bills!

We better thrash these guys.

I might guess the Bills play very physical. Lets hope they keep focused. The whole ref thing has to be driving the team nuts.

Thrash is a good word.

Punish, would be mine.

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@SBNationNFL

The Bengals, Jets & Cardinals are the only teams unanimously picked by our panel this week. http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/11/25/9796444/2015-nfl-picks-predictions-experts-week-12-panthers-cowboys-seahawks-steelers-falcons-vikings

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Week 12 Game Picks (7:25)

NFL Media's Marcus Grant and Elliot Harrison take a look at some of the biggest matchups in Week 12.

 

'Inside the NFL': Week 12 picks (2:30)

NFL Media's Boomer Esiason and Phil Simms have their Week 12 picks in. Their picks may surprise you.

 

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BUFFALO VS. KANSAS CITY

 

Buffalo Bills: Bills coach Rex Ryan is calling this a "huge, huge game" and he's right. It could determine which of these two teams earns a wild-card playoff berth. In their four-game winning streak, the Chiefs are second in Total QBR (83.0) and first in opposing Total QBR (9.4), so both their offense and defense have been clicking. On a short week and playing their third consecutive road game in a notoriously loud environment, the Bills face a huge test.

 

Chiefs 17, Bills 10. -- Mike Rodak

 

Kansas City Chiefs: The matchups aren't great for the Bills, at least when they have the ball. The Chiefs are allowing just 93 rushing yards per game, so the going will be rough for LeSean McCoy and the running game. And the Bills, 29th in passing yardage, don't have the firepower to succeed consistently against the Chiefs through the air.

 

Chiefs 26, Bills 16. -- Adam Teicher

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The older I get, the less I care what they think. Mostly a bunch of clowns!

 

Bandwagon Picks for KC. Ooh Look! They've won four in a row...They must be really good! Hmm? Who have they beaten? No team of note.

@RyanTalbotBills

5 Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions: Watkins Gets Targeted http://www.scout.com/nfl/bills/story/1617329-5-bills-vs-chiefs-predictions

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Bandwagon Picks for KC. Ooh Look! They've won four in a row...They must be really good! Hmm? Who have they beaten? No team of note.

I WOULD be OK if they wanted to pick us after we win the next four! That works for me. :)

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