Salary cap, o-line, Gilmore looming for 2016

[BarleyNY]

Thought I'd start a discussion about some off season issues on the bye. I need a break from current threads. A lot of assumptions have to be made, but we can take a reasonable stab at this point.

 

Cap issues are coming. Not cap hell, but maybe cap heck. Decisions will need to be made. Assuming a cap limit of $150M (which should be close) and Harvin not being retained ($2M dead money) we'll be right at the limit. Clay's $20M roster bonus will be converted to a signing bonus, freeing up $7.5M and there should be a carryover of about $6.5 from this year (give or take). That's $14M in space for 2016 with about 42 players on the roster. The rookie pool will be about $7M for the Bills (guesstimating). That would leave about $7M for other moves.

 

So, what needs done? The offensive line is the big issue. Glenn is out of contract and so is Incognito. That's huge. Even average LTs are expensive and Incognito's price will be going up from this year's team friendly deal. Bradham is a FA as well, but he's going to likely have to take a back seat to the OL on getting a deal done. I expect him to walk.

 

Who can help? Gilmore. He's on his option year at over $11M. He will need guaranteed money and a nice signing bonus, but a long term deal should free up some space for 2016. If Incognito is given a multi year deal his hit shouldn't be that bad either. Glenn is going to come down to the market and I suspect he will leave because he can get a bigger deal elsewhere. I'd like the Bills to find a way to keep him though.

 

Even if both Glenn and Incognito are retained the Bills are going to have to rely on experience and familiarity to improve that unit. Or they're going to have to draft OL. If they lose Glenn, then LT become a huge draft priority.

 

 

Bills 2016 cap outlook:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2016/

(Note that Spotrac assumes Harvin won't be back in their breakdown)

 

Current CB contracts:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/cornerback/

 

Current LT contracts:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/left-tackle/

Edited October 27, 2015 by BarleyNY

[thebandit27]

Thought I'd start a discussion about some off season issues on the bye. I need a break from current threads. A lot of assumptions have to be made, but we can take a reasonable stab at this point.

 

Cap issues are coming. Not cap hell, but maybe cap heck. Decisions will need to be made. Assuming a cap limit of $150M (which should be close) and Harvin not being retained ($2M dead money) we'll be right at the limit. Clay's $20M roster bonus will be converted to a signing bonus, freeing up $7.5M and there should be a carryover of about $6.5 from this year (give or take). That's $14M in space for 2016 with about 42 players on the roster. The rookie pool will be about $7M for the Bills (guesstimating). That would leave about $7M for other moves.

 

So, what needs done? The offensive line is the big issue. Glenn is out of contract and so is Incognito. That's huge. Even average LTs are expensive and Incognito's price will be going up from this year's team friendly deal. Bradham is a FA as well, but he's going to likely have to take a back seat to the OL on getting a deal done. I expect him to walk.

 

Who can help? Gilmore. He's on his option year at over $11M. He will need guaranteed money and a nice signing bonus, but a long term deal should free up some space for 2016. If Incognito is given a multi year deal his hit shouldn't be that bad either. Glenn is going to come down to the market and I suspect he will leave because he can get a bigger deal elsewhere. I'd like the Bills to find a way to keep him though.

 

Even if both Glenn and Incognito are retained the Bills are going to have to rely on experience and familiarity to improve that unit. Or they're going to have to draft OL. If they lose Glenn, then LT become a huge draft priority.

 

 

Bills 2016 cap outlook:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2016/

(Note that Spotrac assumes Harvin won't be back in their breakdown)

 

Current CB contracts:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/cornerback/

 

Current LT contracts:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/left-tackle/

 

Give Mario a new contract and they can free up another $8M for the next 2 seasons.

Additionally, they can gain the following:

 

$3.9M from releasing/trading McKelvin

$5M from releasing Kyle Williams (I know, it's blasphemy, but it could definitely happen)

$2.65M from releasing Manny Lawson

$1.8M from releasing Kraig Urbik

$1.2M from releasing Boobie Dixon

 

That's another $14.5M right there.

 

That's before looking at a guy like Aaron Williams (depending upon injury status) or Eric Wood (diminishing returns).

 

They'll be fine.

[BringBackFergy]

This could very well be the most depressing thing I have read in awhile. It seems we are always one step forward and two steps back. Hopefully we can re-sign Goodwin, Ron Brooks and Jordan Gay.

[NoSaint]

incognito isnt a great option, as you dont expect him to play long. id be surprised if he gets more than a 2 (maaaaaaaybe 3) year deal.

 

but gilmore, and clay are good spots. as is mario. you might so KW gone. if they think henderson can play LT and kujo RT that would be convenient. leo likely gone.

[BarleyNY]

Give Mario a new contract and they can free up another $8M for the next 2 seasons.

Mario may come into play. The big question is how long do you want to commit to him? He's 30 now and he's the biggest cap hit on the team. How much bigger do you want that hit to be in future years? His cap hits are in the 13-15% of total cap range over 2015-2017 seasons as it stands. I don't know how you can justify lowering that in the near term and dealing with him taking up over 20% later - or the enormous dead money we could see from it. It might be an option to convert some of his 2016 salary to a signing bonus though. That might be workable in the short term.

[truth on hold]

 

Give Mario a new contract and they can free up another $8M for the next 2 seasons.

 

Additionally, they can gain the following:

 

$3.9M from releasing/trading McKelvin

$5M from releasing Kyle Williams (I know, it's blasphemy, but it could definitely happen)

$2.65M from releasing Manny Lawson

$1.8M from releasing Kraig Urbik

$1.2M from releasing Boobie Dixon

 

That's another $14.5M right there.

 

That's before looking at a guy like Aaron Williams (depending upon injury status) or Eric Wood (diminishing returns).

 

They'll be fine.

And their replacements will need money too. All those guys have roster spots, releasing them is not a $1 for $1 benefit

[NoSaint]

Mario may come into play. The big question is how long do you want to commit to him? He's 30 now and he's the biggest cap hit on the team. How much bigger do you want that hit to be in future years? His cap hits are in the 13-15% of total cap range over 2015-2017 seasons as it stands. I don't know how you can justify lowering that in the near term and dealing with him taking up over 20% later - or the enormous dead money we could see from it. It might be an option to convert some of his 2016 salary to a signing bonus though. That might be workable in the short term.

hes already a 16m+ hit in the final year. not much leeway to spread stuff around and make the deal better on paper. it kind of is what it is.

[valle7878]

redoing clay's contract and mario and releasing leodis frees up like 14 million right there so don't comment to comment you are so wrong the bills are fine the cap is expected to be around 170

 

WE NEED TO CUT GLENN ANYWAY HE HAS NOT HAD A GOOD YEAR

 

the only players we need to sign are incognito and bradhurn thats it

[NoSaint]

And their replacements will need money too. All those guys have roster spots, releasing them is not a $1 for $1 benefit

mixed bag. a guy like leo might not need a true replacement, for instance.

[BuffaloBillsForever]

Thought I'd start a discussion about some off season issues on the bye. I need a break from current threads. A lot of assumptions have to be made, but we can take a reasonable stab at this point.

 

Cap issues are coming. Not cap hell, but maybe cap heck. Decisions will need to be made. Assuming a cap limit of $150M (which should be close) and Harvin not being retained ($2M dead money) we'll be right at the limit. Clay's $20M roster bonus will be converted to a signing bonus, freeing up $7.5M and there should be a carryover of about $6.5 from this year (give or take). That's $14M in space for 2016 with about 42 players on the roster. The rookie pool will be about $7M for the Bills (guesstimating). That would leave about $7M for other moves.

 

So, what needs done? The offensive line is the big issue. Glenn is out of contract and so is Incognito. That's huge. Even average LTs are expensive and Incognito's price will be going up from this year's team friendly deal. Bradham is a FA as well, but he's going to likely have to take a back seat to the OL on getting a deal done. I expect him to walk.

 

Who can help? Gilmore. He's on his option year at over $11M. He will need guaranteed money and a nice signing bonus, but a long term deal should free up some space for 2016. If Incognito is given a multi year deal his hit shouldn't be that bad either. Glenn is going to come down to the market and I suspect he will leave because he can get a bigger deal elsewhere. I'd like the Bills to find a way to keep him though.

 

Even if both Glenn and Incognito are retained the Bills are going to have to rely on experience and familiarity to improve that unit. Or they're going to have to draft OL. If they lose Glenn, then LT become a huge draft priority.

 

 

Bills 2016 cap outlook:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2016/

(Note that Spotrac assumes Harvin won't be back in their breakdown)

 

Current CB contracts:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/cornerback/

 

Current LT contracts:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/left-tackle/

 

What a disaster!

[peterpan]

I disagree with a lot of whats been said here.

 

Our OL sucks but it wont get any better wiht Incognito or Glenn Leaving. Glenn should be easy to resign on an affordable deal because he is having his worst year as a pro. Incognito wont have a lot of bidders because of past actions. WIth them resigned I think we let Urbik loose to save cap money and draft a LT in the 1st round. Hopefully that pick beats out Glenn who then moves to RT or even RG. If our OL is Stud Rookie - Incog - Wood - Miller (hopefully much improved) - Glenn (hopefully regaining past form) then I think our O would actually have a chance to compete.

 

I definitely think we should tag and trade Gilmore. Darby is a stud and we could rework McKelvins deal quite easily. McKelvin had his best year as a pro under Pettine and I think he will flourish under Ryan. I dont see a scenario where we can afford Gilmore.

 

I dont see what Boobie or Manny Lawson bring to the table with their cap hits.

 

Bradham is a guy who will out-play his contract and I definitely think he needs to be prioritized.

 

I also think we will have to part with some of our shiney new toys. Mario may be gone because of scheme fit. Clay or shady might be gone after enxt year because of their contracts. We mortgaged the future for this year and its not going to pan out.

[truth on hold]

incognito isnt a great option, as you dont expect him to play long. id be surprised if he gets more than a 2 (maaaaaaaybe 3) year deal.

 

but gilmore, and clay are good spots. as is mario. you might so KW gone. if they think henderson can play LT and kujo RT that would be convenient. leo likely gone.

For the most part that group as a whole have roster spots, so again it's not a $1 for $1 free up of cap space releasing them. And some like Lawson and urbik really need to be upgraded, which could cost even more. Of the big contract guys, no one is trading for McCoy, Hughes or Clay, and we aren't trading Dareus , so there's no relief there. Only realistic way out of the box is having a stellar draft with a lot of high quality starters, and given this teams history I'm not holding my breath (although last year w/o a first we did okay)

 

I agree with poster who said we shot our wad (my paraphrase) in 2015 FA signings and extensions, which was unwise given a new coach really needs 2 years of personnel moves to get the players he wants for his system

Edited October 27, 2015 by JTSP

[John from Riverside]

I disagree with a lot of whats been said here.

 

Our OL sucks but it wont get any better wiht Incognito or Glenn Leaving. Glenn should be easy to resign on an affordable deal because he is having his worst year as a pro. Incognito wont have a lot of bidders because of past actions. WIth them resigned I think we let Urbik loose to save cap money and draft a LT in the 1st round. Hopefully that pick beats out Glenn who then moves to RT or even RG. If our OL is Stud Rookie - Incog - Wood - Miller (hopefully much improved) - Glenn (hopefully regaining past form) then I think our O would actually have a chance to compete.

 

I definitely think we should tag and trade Gilmore. Darby is a stud and we could rework McKelvins deal quite easily. McKelvin had his best year as a pro under Pettine and I think he will flourish under Ryan. I dont see a scenario where we can afford Gilmore.

 

I dont see what Boobie or Manny Lawson bring to the table with their cap hits.

 

Bradham is a guy who will out-play his contract and I definitely think he needs to be prioritized.

 

I also think we will have to part with some of our shiney new toys. Mario may be gone because of scheme fit. Clay or shady might be gone after enxt year because of their contracts. We mortgaged the future for this year and its not going to pan out.

What we need to do with Glenn is take the opportunity to sign him to a reasonable deal due to his average pay and move him to RT where he would prob flourish

[jahnyc]

I think this shows why making the playoffs and having success this year was so important. When bad teams (i.e., the Bills) finally develop and acquire some talent, there can be a relatively small window to have success due to the salary cap and expiring contracts. We are in that window now, and in the offseason, we will face some tough decisions because of the salary cap. The Bills spent a lot last offseason to take their shot this season and so far it is not working out. All of this is without paying a QB typical starting QB money.

[thebandit27]

What are people watching that makes them say that our OL sucks?

 

Did they miss EJ with 5+ seconds to throw the ball nearly every play the last two Sundays?

 

This is the NFL--if a QB has 3 seconds to throw he should be ecstatic

[Nihilarian]

I disagree with a lot of whats been said here.

 

Our OL sucks but it wont get any better wiht Incognito or Glenn Leaving. Glenn should be easy to resign on an affordable deal because he is having his worst year as a pro. Incognito wont have a lot of bidders because of past actions. WIth them resigned I think we let Urbik loose to save cap money and draft a LT in the 1st round. Hopefully that pick beats out Glenn who then moves to RT or even RG. If our OL is Stud Rookie - Incog - Wood - Miller (hopefully much improved) - Glenn (hopefully regaining past form) then I think our O would actually have a chance to compete.

 

I definitely think we should tag and trade Gilmore. Darby is a stud and we could rework McKelvins deal quite easily. McKelvin had his best year as a pro under Pettine and I think he will flourish under Ryan. I dont see a scenario where we can afford Gilmore.

 

I dont see what Boobie or Manny Lawson bring to the table with their cap hits.

 

Bradham is a guy who will out-play his contract and I definitely think he needs to be prioritized.

 

I also think we will have to part with some of our shiney new toys. Mario may be gone because of scheme fit. Clay or shady might be gone after enxt year because of their contracts. We mortgaged the future for this year and its not going to pan out.

I agree with some of this.

 

What a disaster the offensive line is looking like with LT Glenn a free agent, and Incognito could be gone after this year. Incognito is this teams best offensive lineman, and he has kept his mouth shut, nose clean. Because of that he will get long hard looks from other teams simply because top rated O line players are exceedingly more, and more difficult to find, obtain,

 

At this point both RT's Henderson, and Kouandjio are looking like backups that need more time to develop, as does RG John Miller. The fact that Urbik is still on this team just shows that very few in the Bills scouting dept knows what a quality OG looks like, or any O linemen for that matter. It was Rex Ryan who wanted Incognito. The center position is also a concern as Wood looks to be regressing.

 

RB Karlos Williams might be a lost cause if he should sustain more concussions considering the way he runs. Boobie Dixon doesn't look like he is worth keeping.

 

The Texans had a difficult time with Mario Williams at LB / DE with Wade Phillips as DC so they let him leave. He was a perfect fit in Schwartz's wide nine scheme, and now looking in Buffalo like he did with Wade as his DC.

 

While i like the acquisition of LeSean McCoy even at 5,or 6 Mill per. It makes little sense to me to not finish properly building the offensive line like the GM wanted to with OG Jahri Evans, OT Brian Bulaga to give McCoy a better line to run behind. Not to mention developing another young QB with a less then solid line...again for the third straight year. JMO

[machine gun kelly]

 

Give Mario a new contract and they can free up another $8M for the next 2 seasons.

Additionally, they can gain the following:

 

$3.9M from releasing/trading McKelvin

$5M from releasing Kyle Williams (I know, it's blasphemy, but it could definitely happen)

$2.65M from releasing Manny Lawson

$1.8M from releasing Kraig Urbik

$1.2M from releasing Boobie Dixon

 

 

I'm fine with everything you said, except losing K. Williams. If he drops off in production after returning from his injury, ok, but if he stays at the top of his game, no way.

 

Rex needs to stop being stubborn and play the wide 9.

[dave mcbride]

I agree with some of this.

 

What a disaster the offensive line is looking like with LT Glenn a free agent, and Incognito could be gone after this year. Incognito is this teams best offensive lineman, and he has kept his mouth shut, nose clean. Because of that he will get long hard looks from other teams simply because top rated O line players are exceedingly more, and more difficult to find, obtain,

 

At this point both RT's Henderson, and Kouandjio are looking like backups that need more time to develop, as does RG John Miller. The fact that Urbik is still on this team just shows that very few in the Bills scouting dept knows what a quality OG looks like, or any O linemen for that matter. It was Rex Ryan who wanted Incognito. The center position is also a concern as Wood looks to be regressing.

 

RB Karlos Williams might be a lost cause if he should sustain more concussions considering the way he runs. Boobie Dixon doesn't look like he is worth keeping.

 

The Texans had a difficult time with Mario Williams at LB / DE with Wade Phillips as DC so they let him leave. He was a perfect fit in Schwartz's wide nine scheme, and now looking in Buffalo like he did with Wade as his DC.

 

While i like the acquisition of LeSean McCoy even at 5,or 6 Mill per. It makes little sense to me to not finish properly building the offensive line like the GM wanted to with OG Jahri Evans, OT Brian Bulaga to give McCoy a better line to run behind. Not to mention developing another young QB with a less then solid line...again for the third straight year. JMO

 

Mario has three times as many sacks as any of the other defensive linemen on the team right now. And to be fair, in the five games he played for Wade in 2011 (before getting hurt), he had 5 sacks. He's a physical freak who can thrive in any system - as long as he's unleashed on the QB.

Edited October 27, 2015 by dave mcbride

[BarleyNY]

 

Give Mario a new contract and they can free up another $8M for the next 2 seasons.Additionally, they can gain the following:

 

$3.9M from releasing/trading McKelvin

$5M from releasing Kyle Williams (I know, it's blasphemy, but it could definitely happen)

$2.65M from releasing Manny Lawson

$1.8M from releasing Kraig Urbik

$1.2M from releasing Boobie Dixon

 

That's another $14.5M right there.

 

That's before looking at a guy like Aaron Williams (depending upon injury status) or Eric Wood (diminishing returns).

 

They'll be fine.

I'm not sure how you free up that kind of space with Mario without putting a huge boat anchor around the team's neck for future years. It's pretty crazy. Until the Bills find a QB that puts them in position to make a run at a title they can't rob the future for the present.

 

McKelvin is a good call and he is a player I should have included. $3.9M cap savings from declining to pay his roster bonus is a must.

 

I don't see parting ways with Kyle Williams over a $5M cap savings unless his play were to drop off substantially. Starting DTs aren't cheap either so it'd be tough to replace him and I'd expect a drop off in play from the position. I don't make that move.

 

You're not finding Lawson's replacement for less than what the saving from cutting him would be either. Unless you're looking at drafting one. Urbik and Dixon have to be replaced, too. Not much savings to be had there either.

 

And their replacements will need money too. All those guys have roster spots, releasing them is not a $1 for $1 benefit

Exactly. And when you're looking a starter quality replacements you might not even come out ahead.

[BarleyNY]

hes already a 16m+ hit in the final year. not much leeway to spread stuff around and make the deal better on paper. it kind of is what it is.

I couldn't agree more.

 

What we need to do with Glenn is take the opportunity to sign him to a reasonable deal due to his average pay and move him to RT where he would prob flourish

The problem is that Glenn is almost certainly going to hit free agency. Why is he going to take an average pay kind of deal when some team is likely to overpay for him? I thought Hughes was going to hit FA too though. So I guess you never know.