mannc Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 (edited) And the Chargers probably took Gordon too high. Very few RB taken in the first round in the past 7-8 years have justified their draft position. Last time they did it it did not work out. Edited September 9, 2015 by mannc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 The QB drought is on for a season or 2. Develop EJ for 1 more season and IF TT does good this season, shop him for a #1 draft pick (or more) Wait so you want the drought to continue if Tyrod ends up being a good QB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 It stinks for Winston as he could develop into a solid QB, but is over his head right now. Glennon is a much better fit right now, for at least half of a season to a season. Winston is going to get killed out there. I wish him and Mariotta the best (except the week we play TN). Let's hope TT with 5 years riding the pine helped him develop. We'll find out Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Wait so you want the drought to continue if Tyrod ends up being a good QB? Yes you read it right. That post has already made his greatest hits album. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 (edited) RBs drafted in the first round in the past 7 years (2008-2014; not including 2015): Trent Richardson Mark Ingram Jahvid Best CJ Spiller Ryan Matthews David WilsonDoug Martin Knowshon Moreno Donald Brown Beanie Wells Darren McFadden Jonathan Stewart Felix Jones Rashard Mendenhall Chris Johnson That is one sorry lot. Yes, Chris Johnson had one off-the-charts season and another pretty good one. Spiller, Doug Martin, and Jonathan Stewart each had one very good season. Mendenhall had a couple of solid seasons. But none has had sustained success. Edited September 9, 2015 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 (edited) Wilson ran for 849 yards too, and at over 7 yards a clip. That number is something you see with ypa, not ypc. You have to factor that in with him. A lot of those are hybrid run/pass plays too, so it's not easy to categorize them as rushing plays. You're absolutely right - I figured just showing you can get Wilson or Romo in the same range of where Joique Bell falls would make my point - thanks for adding to it. There's more talented QB's 1-15 than there are RB's 1-15. I know you agree, but speaking to Observers' post - RB's are definitely not a dime a dozen. I'd say they are the second hardest commodity to find behind CB. Edited September 9, 2015 by Triple Threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 RBs drafted in the first round in the past 7 years (2008-2014; not including 2015): Trent Richardson Mark Ingram Jahvid Best CJ Spiller Ryan Matthews David Wilson Doug Martin Knowshon Moreno Donald Brown Beanie Wells Darren McFadden Jonathan Stewart Felix Jones Rashard Mendenhall Chris Johnson That is one sorry lot. Yes, Chris Johnson had one off-the-charts season and another pretty good one. Spiller, Doug Martin, and Jonathan Stewart each had one very good season. Mendenhall had a couple of solid seasons. But none has had sustained success. Yep. Off the top of my head, I would guess that a list of second round RBs from those years would look better. Maybe round 3 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Yes you read it right. That post has already made his greatest hits album. Not a real Bills fan if EJ is more important than the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 You're absolutely right - I figured just showing you can get Wilson or Romo in the same range of where Joique Bell falls would make my point - thanks for adding to it. There's more talented QB's 1-15 than there are RB's 1-15. I know you agree, but speaking to Observers' post - RB's are definitely not a dime a dozen. I'd say they are the second hardest commodity to find behind CB. I completely agree that they're not a dime a dozen, but it does seem as if the position is very hard to project. See my post above. Also, they get so many injuries that unless you're lucky, you're only going to get 1-3 top-end seasons from a good one. There are exceptions, but most get dinged up and suffer with regard to production as a consequence. As with any position, though, good ones are more valuable than dime a dozen ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterpan Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I don't know about that. Lynch's stats from the 1 and 2 yard lines last season were poor, and the Pats were in a jumbo run-stopping defense. They also knew the play before it was called!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I completely agree that they're not a dime a dozen, but it does seem as if the position is very hard to project. See my post above. Also, they get so many injuries that unless you're lucky, you're only going to get 1-3 top-end seasons from a good one. There are exceptions, but most get dinged up and suffer with regard to production as a consequence. As with any position, though, good ones are more valuable than dime a dozen ones. I think it is the short termism actually that leads to the devaluation. You get a great Quarterback you have him for 10-15 years. You get a great running back you basically have him for one maybe one and a half contracts? 5-6 years tops of real top end production with the very odd exception of guys who manage to avoid the injury bug (and let's hope LeSean really is one of those...) However, as Quarterbacks come out less and less prepared teams are going to be forced to run the ball more whilst those guys adjust (except where a team drafts behind an established starter and can let a guy sit and learn. If Winston and or Mariotta are throwing a lot this season their two teams will be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Here is aother gauge of how valuable RBs are: How many 1st round RBs have been signed to a second contract by the teams that drafted them? I am having a hard time thinking of any besides AP and maybe McFadden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 RBs drafted in the first round in the past 7 years (2008-2014; not including 2015): Trent Richardson Mark Ingram Jahvid Best CJ Spiller Ryan Matthews David Wilson Doug Martin Knowshon Moreno Donald Brown Beanie Wells Darren McFadden Jonathan Stewart Felix Jones Rashard Mendenhall Chris Johnson That is one sorry lot. Yes, Chris Johnson had one off-the-charts season and another pretty good one. Spiller, Doug Martin, and Jonathan Stewart each had one very good season. Mendenhall had a couple of solid seasons. But none has had sustained success. One year removed from Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, who've dominated the running scene. The perception changed, which has been reflected in their draft spots, but these trends come and go in waves. We'll probably start seeing RBs drafted in the 1st round again because of the impact that guys like LeVeon Bell have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 One year removed from Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, who've dominated the running scene. The perception changed, which has been reflected in their draft spots, but these trends come and go in waves. We'll probably start seeing RBs drafted in the 1st round again because of the impact that guys like LeVeon Bell have. You know what would lead to teams drafting more running backs in the first round? Teams drafting more running backs in the first round. I know that sounds like the most obvious statement ever but we see every draft in recent years that once they start going there is generally a run on backs... it has started mid second round last couple of years (I know Gordon and Gurley were taken in round 1). The consensus around the league is it isn't worth it and once that becomes the case teams wait. If you are picking in the top 15 you can afford to pass on a back you really like in round 1 because you are pretty confident nobody else is taking him at the back end of the first so you might get a shot at him in the 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 One year removed from Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, who've dominated the running scene. The perception changed, which has been reflected in their draft spots, but these trends come and go in waves. We'll probably start seeing RBs drafted in the 1st round again because of the impact that guys like LeVeon Bell have. But Bell was not a first round pick, and Lynch was more or less a disappointment for the team that drafted him, so I'm not getting your point. And of course the Vikings have won squat, even with the best RB of his generation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 And the Chargers probably took Gordon too high. Very few RB taken in the first round in the past 7-8 years have justified their draft position. Last time they did it it did not work out. You can make the same claim for every position. There are plenty of top of the draft qbs, OTs, CBs, DL, receivers etc who don't justify their draft position. If a player turns out to be a good pro, regardless of the position, it is a worthy draft pick. More often than not the team that a particular player goes to and its circumstances is very important to the success of the player drafted. If you are a good draft prospect and go to a team with a good OL, such as Dallas, the odds of being successful improve. For a back going to the Bills with its recent history of having wretched OL play the talents of a good back are squandered. A highly drafted CB going to a team with an inability to rush the qb is going to struggle more than a lesser drafted CB who goes to a team with a good pass rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 But Bell was not a first round pick, and Lynch was more or less a disappointment for the team that drafted him, so I'm not getting your point. And of course the Vikings have won squat, even with the best RB of his generation. But a guy like Bell will be a first round pick next year or the year after. That's my point. Great RBs aren't a dime a dozen. It's that simple. They've been "devalued," but now the trend will be to start taking them early again...or trading for them. I know you're smart enough to get my point, but I'm not sure you want to. You know what would lead to teams drafting more running backs in the first round? Teams drafting more running backs in the first round. I know that sounds like the most obvious statement ever but we see every draft in recent years that once they start going there is generally a run on backs... it has started mid second round last couple of years (I know Gordon and Gurley were taken in round 1). The consensus around the league is it isn't worth it and once that becomes the case teams wait. If you are picking in the top 15 you can afford to pass on a back you really like in round 1 because you are pretty confident nobody else is taking him at the back end of the first so you might get a shot at him in the 2nd. Pretty much. Teams were fortunate to be getting good RBs in the 2nd, but we'll probably see shift back to 1st round picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 One year removed from Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, who've dominated the running scene. The perception changed, which has been reflected in their draft spots, but these trends come and go in waves. We'll probably start seeing RBs drafted in the 1st round again because of the impact that guys like LeVeon Bell have. I dunno. 7 years is a long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I dunno. 7 years is a long run. Pun intended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 You can make the same claim for every position. There are plenty of top of the draft qbs, OTs, CBs, DL, receivers etc who don't justify their draft position. If a player turns out to be a good pro, regardless of the position, it is a worthy draft pick. More often than not the team that a particular player goes to and its circumstances is very important to the success of the player drafted. If you are a good draft prospect and go to a team with a good OL, such as Dallas, the odds of being successful improve. For a back going to the Bills with its recent history of having wretched OL play the talents of a good back are squandered. A highly drafted CB going to a team with an inability to rush the qb is going to struggle more than a lesser drafted CB who goes to a team with a good pass rush. I do think it's true that RBs who run it a lot have pretty short shelf lives compared to other positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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