Whaley admits what we've suspected - Bills in QB Purgatory

[RyanC883]

So you would taken a bunch of stiffs just to show you're at least trying? In the meantime you miss players like John Miller and Preston Brown.

100% agree.

[Luxy312]

I agree, It is surprising!

 

What a thing to admit as he is the one who went and scouted EJ and then drafted him. I recall recently reading that someone in the FO thinks EJ has the stature of a big strong QB, but doesn't throw like one. Where was this critique when he was being scouted?

 

Aaron Rodgers drafted 24th in the first round- won SB

 

Tom Brady drafted in the 6th round- won SB

 

Drew Brees drafted in the 2nd round-won SB

 

*Peyton Manning #1 overall won SB

 

*Andrew Luck #1 overall

 

Ben Roethlisberger #11 first round-won SB

 

Tony Romo undrafted free agent

 

Phillip Rivers #4 overall

 

Matt Ryan #3 overall

 

Russell Wilson 3rd round-won SB

 

*Cam Newton 1st overall

 

*Eli Manning 1st overall- won SB

 

*Matthew Stafford 1st overall

 

Joe Flacco-#18 first round-won SB

 

Ryan Tannehill 8th first round

 

*Sam Bradford 1st overall

 

Colin Kaepernick 2nd round

 

Jay Cutler 1st round 11th pick

 

*Carson Palmer 1st overall

 

*Alex Smith 1st overall

 

Teddy Bridgewater 1st round #32

 

Robert Griffin III #2 overall

 

Andy Dalton 2nd round

 

Nick Foles 3rd round

 

Derek Carr 2nd round

 

Geno Smith 2nd round

 

*Jamis Winston 1st overall

 

Josh McCown 3rd round

 

Marcus Mariota 2nd overall

 

Bryan Hoyer undrafted free agent

 

Looking at this years lists of starting QB's is total proof that you don't need a #1 or #2 overall pick to win a SB as only two of eight of those first-second overalls have won a SB. The Bills don't need the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft to obtain a franchise QB if they have someone on the scouting staff who can actually evaluate a college or free agent QB properly. Kinda why i think it might have been smart for Pegula to hire that football czar.

 

Fantastic breakdown here. Look, I would love to see the Bills have the likes of a Jim Kelly again. But when it comes right down to it, they have a team that can win it all without one. There's quite a few recent Superbowl winning quarterbacks that almost anyone wouldn't even put in the top ten. I'm not suggesting that that's ideal. I don't care who's around him, if I have Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, my expectation is a deep playoff run every year. I hate to beat a dead horse here, but I think the analogy to Joe Flacco is the most accurate. They've made the playoffs 7 out of 8 years with him as the starter and won a Superbowl. Over those 8 years collectively, the Ravens have collectively been at the top of the league defensively. How many people would say that notwithstanding anything else that Joe Flacco makes their team a playoff contender regardless of the rest of the roster? Nobody with two brain cells to rub together.

[Fadingpain]

 

If you had to pick a QB to play for you in 2015, would it be Carr or Manuel?

 

Teams either have a QB, have a guy they're developing who they hope will be the guy, or are going with scraps. Buffalo is in the final category and Oakland in the second one. Call it luck, call it whatever. The Bills don't have a long term option on the roster.

 

The reason Buffalo is where they are today is because they failed to be aggressive when options were available in 2011 and 2012. It forced them to make a decision in what turned out to be a bad QB draft in 2013. Taking one there meant passing over what looks like better prospects in 2014.

 

A GM who doesn't find a long term answer in their first 3 years on the job, particularly in the NFL of today, should be on a very short leash. The success of a franchise depends on it far too much to be so mediocre there.

Good post.

[thebandit27]

Good post.

 

And here was my response:

 

 

Ideally, neither. It's a coin flip to me, since--as I mentioned--they were about the same their rookie years.

 

I think Manuel is the more physically talented of the two; I think Carr is closer to reaching his full potential as a QB (which is limited).

 

 

Do you not see the duality of these two statements? You want to blame Whaley for not taking a QB in 2011 and 2012 when Nix was the GM, but also blame him for picking Manuel in 2013 when Nix was (still) the GM?

 

I'm on record as believing that Whaley had plenty of say in the Manuel selection. You seem to agree that, by that point, they needed to at least take a shot, so I'm not sure how you can pick nits with that move. IMO, and by all that we can possibly know about how the organization was running at that time, the failure to go after a QB (specifically, Dalton, Kaepernick, Wilson, and Foles) in 2011 and 2012 falls on Nix.

 

Moving forward, I suppose you could agree with ChanFuego, who was ready to trade most of a draft to move up for Bridgewater in 2014 and/or draft Bryce Petty in round 3 or 4 this year; beyond that, I'm not sure what the plan should've been (save for doubling down in 2013 and drafting a guy like Mettenberger or Murray in the 4th/5th). The last 3 drafts just haven't been good QB drafts.

 

Now, there's a chance that 2016 will be a good year for them, but we'll just have to wait and see. I don't make excuses; the fact is that good QBs don't grow on trees, and that's why mediocre guys like Tannehill are getting $19M/year despite not sniffing the playoffs.

[Fadingpain]

 

Fantastic breakdown here. Look, I would love to see the Bills have the likes of a Jim Kelly again. But when it comes right down to it, they have a team that can win it all without one. There's quite a few recent Superbowl winning quarterbacks that almost anyone wouldn't even put in the top ten. I'm not suggesting that that's ideal. I don't care who's around him, if I have Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, my expectation is a deep playoff run every year. I hate to beat a dead horse here, but I think the analogy to Joe Flacco is the most accurate. They've made the playoffs 7 out of 8 years with him as the starter and won a Superbowl. Over those 8 years collectively, the Ravens have collectively been at the top of the league defensively. How many people would say that notwithstanding anything else that Joe Flacco makes their team a playoff contender regardless of the rest of the roster? Nobody with two brain cells to rub together.

Not true.

 

Have a look at the "Final 4" teams last year and show me the average to below average starting QBs on those rosters.

 

In reality, they were among the 4 best QBs in the league.

 

Admittedly, a few non-superstar QBs have won Superbowls over the years. We know who they are.

Such occurrences are very rare however and shouldn't be relied upon.

[thebandit27]

 

Fantastic breakdown here. Look, I would love to see the Bills have the likes of a Jim Kelly again. But when it comes right down to it, they have a team that can win it all without one. There's quite a few recent Superbowl winning quarterbacks that almost anyone wouldn't even put in the top ten. I'm not suggesting that that's ideal. I don't care who's around him, if I have Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, my expectation is a deep playoff run every year. I hate to beat a dead horse here, but I think the analogy to Joe Flacco is the most accurate. They've made the playoffs 7 out of 8 years with him as the starter and won a Superbowl. Over those 8 years collectively, the Ravens have collectively been at the top of the league defensively. How many people would say that notwithstanding anything else that Joe Flacco makes their team a playoff contender regardless of the rest of the roster? Nobody with two brain cells to rub together.

 

Meanwhile, look at last year's playoff teams:

 

Brady - 6th round

P. Manning - #1 overall

Big Ben - 1st round

Flacco - 1st round

Luck - #1 overall

Dalton - 2nd round (34th overall)

 

Wilson - 3rd round

Palmer - 1st overall (and traded for 2 1st-round picks)

Rodgers - 1st round

Stafford - #1 overall

Romo - UDFA

Newton - 1st overall

 

Guys...

[eball]

 

If you had to pick a QB to play for you in 2015, would it be Carr or Manuel?

 

Teams either have a QB, have a guy they're developing who they hope will be the guy, or are going with scraps. Buffalo is in the final category and Oakland in the second one. Call it luck, call it whatever. The Bills don't have a long term option on the roster.

 

The reason Buffalo is where they are today is because they failed to be aggressive when options were available in 2011 and 2012. It forced them to make a decision in what turned out to be a bad QB draft in 2013. Taking one there meant passing over what looks like better prospects in 2014.

 

A GM who doesn't find a long term answer in their first 3 years on the job, particularly in the NFL of today, should be on a very short leash. The success of a franchise depends on it far too much to be so mediocre there.

 

It could be argued (not saying I agree) that the Bills view EJ and Tyrod in the 2nd category, and Cassel is the "scraps." Certainly when EJ was drafted that was the thought, and Tyrod hasn't had an opportunity because he has played behind one of the most durable QBs in the league.

 

I don't disagree with your comments with respect to 2011 and 2012. My biggest gripe with Whaley is last offseason, when he apparently thought going into training camp with EJ, Thad Lewis, and Jeff Tuel was satisfactory. He has made up for that in my mind with how he went out and got three new QBs on the roster -- even if none of them wind up being the long term answer.

[Luxy312]

Not true.

 

Have a look at the "Final 4" teams last year and show me the average to below average starting QBs on those rosters.

 

In reality, they were among the 4 best QBs in the league.

 

Admittedly, a few non-superstar QBs have won Superbowls over the years. We know who they are.

Such occurrences are very rare however and shouldn't be relied upon.

 

Focusing on just one year is myopic at best. It's like looking at one incomplete pass and saying a QB has accuracy issues. Try looking at the collective data over the last 20 years and you'll prove yourself wrong and myself right. I'm not going to focus on limited information, just because you want to put the blinders on and ignore everything else that's out there that supports the contrary.

[FireChan]

Does anyone see the irony here? We are mad at Whaley for not taking a flier on a developmental QB. Then we freak out when a QB isn't setting the NFL on fire 5 days into training camp.

What.

 

 

No, Carr's rookie year was NOT better than EJ's. In fact, it was worse by most statistical measures.

 

Comp. %age, YPA, QBR, passer rating, and winning percentage all favor EJ. In fact, the only measure by which Carr played better was TD:INT ratio.

 

I don't know how you can blindly say that a random rookie (who you haven't named despite being asked) would improve sitting on the bench. The streets are littered with rookies that sat on the bench and never got any better.

 

Frankly I agree that a developmental QB contingency plan should've come into play before Taylor became the de facto option. I won't, however, throw Whaley to the wolves because he didn't pick Aaron Murray or Zach Mettenberger in the 4th round (even though I would have).

 

Looking at the percentages, he's playing the odds by taking other positions in those rounds as opposed to QBs.

Car threw 21 TD's, 12 INT's and 3,200 yards his rookie year. All on the worst team in the NFL. EJ hasn't thrown that in 2 years. I'd wager that if EJ had that type of year this year that Carr had as a rookie, we'd call it progress.

[thebandit27]

What.

 

Car threw 21 TD's, 12 INT's and 3,200 yards his rookie year. All on the worst team in the NFL. EJ hasn't thrown that in 2 years. I'd wager that if EJ had that type of year this year that Carr had as a rookie, we'd call it progress.

 

So if EJ's completion percentage, YPA, winning percentage, QBR, and passer rating all got worse, but his yardage and TD totals improved because his team was behind 90% of the time, and the team won 3 games, we'd call that progress?

 

No, we would not call that progress. You might, but IMO you'd be wrong.

[FireChan]

 

So if EJ's completion percentage, YPA, winning percentage, QBR, and passer rating all got worse, but his yardage and TD totals improved because his team was behind 90% of the time, and the team won 3 games, we'd call that progress?

 

No, we would not call that progress. You might, but IMO you'd be wrong.

You know, I don't believe that W/L is always a good stat for QB's, because there can be such a vast difference in talent, like the Raider and Bills. Let's say the Bills go 9-7 or 10-6 with EJ with those numbers. Sure a .8 drop in completion percentage, whatever. With 6 or 7 more wins, QBR rises. That would be progress.

 

Even if you hold fast that it isn't, Carr is still at a better point now than EJ is now, so this tangent is a little unnecessary.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Meanwhile, look at last year's playoff teams:

 

Brady - 6th round

P. Manning - #1 overall

Big Ben - 1st round

Flacco - 1st round

Luck - #1 overall

Dalton - 2nd round (34th overall)

 

Wilson - 3rd round

Palmer - 1st overall (and traded for 2 1st-round picks)

Rodgers - 1st round

Stafford - #1 overall

Romo - UDFA

Newton - 1st overall

 

Guys...

....but, but, but Brady was drafted in the 6th round!!! Why didn't the Bills see what the Patriots saw?

[thebandit27]

You know, I don't believe that W/L is always a good stat for QB's, because there can be such a vast difference in talent, like the Raider and Bills. Let's say the Bills go 9-7 or 10-6 with EJ with those numbers. Sure a .8 drop in completion percentage, whatever. With 6 or 7 more wins, QBR rises. That would be progress.

 

Even if you hold fast that it isn't, Carr is still at a better point now than EJ is now, so this tangent is a little unnecessary.

 

If wins and losses have to be taken in context, so too do passing numbers (i.e. there' an inflation factor at play with playing from behind all season long, along with playing behind one of the best pass-blocking OLs in football--yes, the Raiders allowed the 5th-fewest QB hits and 6th-fewest sacks in the entire league).

 

And again, I'm not simply going to agree that Carr is at a better point in his career-arc simply because his 2nd season hasn't begun (which would give him the chance to play himself out of the job the way EJ did last year).

....but, but, but Brady was drafted in the 6th round!!! Why didn't the Bills see what the Patriots saw?

 

Haha...you mean what the Patriots** saw after passing on the guy that they supposedly loved 5 times?

[FireChan]

 

If wins and losses have to be taken in context, so too do passing numbers (i.e. there' an inflation factor at play with playing from behind all season long, along with playing behind one of the best pass-blocking OLs in football--yes, the Raiders allowed the 5th-fewest QB hits and 6th-fewest sacks in the entire league).

 

And again, I'm not simply going to agree that Carr is at a better point in his career-arc simply because his 2nd season hasn't begun (which would give him the chance to play himself out of the job the way EJ did last year).

 

Haha...you mean what the Patriots** saw after passing on the guy that they supposedly loved 5 times?

But that's my point. Carr has a chance to regress and lose the job. Which means he has a chance he won't. EJ already has. Therefore Carr > EJ.

[Dorkington]

So it sounds like the consensus is that Whaley has failed this team... yet is largely graded at B/A in the other thread.

 

This place confuses me.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Haha...you mean what the Patriots** saw after passing on the guy that they supposedly loved 5 times?

Yeah, that is my favorite argument on the board. Whenever someone talks about how you can "find" QBs they always remember Brady and Romo and never seem to remember Levi Brown, Colt Brennan or the thousands of other faceless QBs.

[thebandit27]

But that's my point. Carr has a chance to regress and lose the job. Which means he has a chance he won't. EJ already has. Therefore Carr > EJ.

 

He was never a threat to lose his job because he was a rookie on a horrible team. The only reason that EJ lost his job due to 2 bad games in a row was that the team was poised to win now. Carr's team isn't.

 

If you're going to equate that to being a better player at this point, well, it's quite obvious that I disagree based on the contributing factors in each situation.

[ko12010]

 

Focusing on just one year is myopic at best. It's like looking at one incomplete pass and saying a QB has accuracy issues. Try looking at the collective data over the last 20 years and you'll prove yourself wrong and myself right. I'm not going to focus on limited information, just because you want to put the blinders on and ignore everything else that's out there that supports the contrary.

Sounds like the Buffalo media.

[CodeMonkey]

So it sounds like the consensus is that Whaley has failed this team... yet is largely graded at B/A in the other thread.

 

This place confuses me.

I think a lot of the B grades are because of the QB problem that still remains. Most I think, myself included, think he has done a good job overall except for QB. QB is the focus of this thread, so not that confusing.

Edited August 6, 2015 by CodeMonkey

[FireChan]

 

He was never a threat to lose his job because he was a rookie on a horrible team. The only reason that EJ lost his job due to 2 bad games in a row was that the team was poised to win now. Carr's team isn't.

 

If you're going to equate that to being a better player at this point, well, it's quite obvious that I disagree based on the contributing factors in each situation.

So you're telling me that the Raiders would trade Carr for EJ?