C.Biscuit97 Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 There are going to be so many silly threads to look back on after EJ leads us to the playoffs with his first competent offensive coaching staff in the NFL. Since it was the anniversary of Steve McNair's death, I looked back at his stats. Some of you would have been running him out of town. Patience sucks! Bust! http://m.pfref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXMXXMcNaSt00.htm&t=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 (edited) There are going to be so many silly threads to look back on after EJ leads us to the playoffs with his first competent offensive coaching staff in the NFL. Since it was the anniversary of Steve McNair's death, I looked back at his stats. Some of you would have been running him out of town. Patience sucks! Bust! http://m.pfref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXMXXMcNaSt00.htm&t=0 I took a few logic classes in my day and I would venture to say that because other successful QB's have had slow starts to their career, that does not necessarily mean that when a QB has a slow start to his career that he will probably become good. On the flip side, virtually all QB's who are unsuccessful do in fact have slow starts to their career. You will see similar arguments on here like "Andrew Luck threw a bad pass once" or "Joe Flacco had a bad game at Houston once too." Yes, all QB's have bad games. There is no correlation between other QB's also having bad games and EJ Manuel becoming a successful QB. Jamarcus Russell's chances of re-entering the NFL and becoming successful will not improve if Aaron Rodgers has a bad game in week 1. That being said, I hope you're right. Edited July 5, 2015 by metzelaars_lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 I am not sure how this has turned into another EJ thread but it has..... I do think there is something to C.Biscuit's point though and I have said it here a few times. It has been so long since we have had a Quarterback and so long since we have been in the play-offs that we are hysterical about the whole thing now and we will run out of town pretty much anyone. Unless someone has a Luck like immediate impact we are going to be screaming "he isn't the answer - move on." I personally believe that we are much more likely to miss someone that way than by not drafting a new one every spring just so that we can pin our hopes to a different mast. None of this makes EJ the answer however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 (edited) I am not sure how this has turned into another EJ thread but it has..... I do think there is something to C.Biscuit's point though and I have said it here a few times. It has been so long since we have had a Quarterback and so long since we have been in the play-offs that we are hysterical about the whole thing now and we will run out of town pretty much anyone. Unless someone has a Luck like immediate impact we are going to be screaming "he isn't the answer - move on." I personally believe that we are much more likely to miss someone that way than by not drafting a new one every spring just so that we can pin our hopes to a different mast. None of this makes EJ the answer however.In fairness, all of the guys we have "run out of town" since Kelly have turned out to have been worthy of being ran out of town. They should've let Flutie play maybe one more season and they should have never cut Fitzpatrick- although he wasn't a long term solution either. You also don't want to waste a season of all the great players on this roster's prime waiting for a guy to develop if your gut is that it's not happening for him. It'll work itself out. I am confident that if this coaching staff does decide to move on from Manuel that they will have done their due process and I wouldn't be too worried about him developing into a franchise QB elsewhere. EDIT: Look, I think every single person on this website would agree that if EJ Manuel can't beat out Matt Cassel in his third year in the league then it's not happening for him. I sincerely hope that people don't continue to make excuses for him if he can't win this job. If he does win the job then this debate will likely drag on for some time I would think. Edited July 5, 2015 by metzelaars_lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Stats aside and this may not be the best evaluator but Smith plays while EJ has been on the bench. I believe EJ is better but until he wins the starting job and starts to show it, hard to say Manuel is better. well said Nucci , well said. In fairness, all of the guys we have "run out of town" since Kelly have turned out to have been worthy of being ran out of town. They should've let Flutie play maybe one more season and they should have never cut Fitzpatrick- although he wasn't a long term solution either. You also don't want to waste a season of all the great players on this roster's prime waiting for a guy to develop if your gut is that it's not happening for him. It'll work itself out. I am confident that if this coaching staff does decide to move on from Manuel that they will have done their due process and I wouldn't be too worried about him developing into a franchise QB elsewhere. EDIT: Look, I think every single person on this website would agree that if EJ Manuel can't beat out Matt Cassel in his third year in the league then it's not happening for him. I sincerely hope that people don't continue to make excuses for him if he can't win this job. If he does win the job then this debate will likely drag on for some time I would think. absolutely. he will need to get on the field this year and prove it. politics be damned. if he is not the choice to start then we can start hand wringing. very interesting to see how training camp and then pre season unfolds this is the qualifying year. i think Whaley knows this as well as we fans do. I expect him to start to have a shot at this. and i hope he is battling against Tyrod for all the right reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 (edited) In fairness, all of the guys we have "run out of town" since Kelly have turned out to have been worthy of being ran out of town. They should've let Flutie play maybe one more season and they should have never cut Fitzpatrick- although he wasn't a long term solution either. You also don't want to waste a season of all the great players on this roster's prime waiting for a guy to develop if your gut is that it's not happening for him. It'll work itself out. I am confident that if this coaching staff does decide to move on from Manuel that they will have done their due process and I wouldn't be too worried about him developing into a franchise QB elsewhere. EDIT: Look, I think every single person on this website would agree that if EJ Manuel can't beat out Matt Cassel in his third year in the league then it's not happening for him. I sincerely hope that people don't continue to make excuses for him if he can't win this job. If he does win the job then this debate will likely drag on for some time I would think. I don't disagree with any of that, but some people wanted to run him out of town after 10 games when he had performed as well and indeed better at that stage than some guys who have gone on to be franchise calibre Quarterbacks. That he showed no discernible improvement in his first full off season was a concern to me and that he totally fell apart in that Houston game. However, even if it had gone the other way at the start of year two the dye was already cast - there was a near full on campaign on here to draft Johnny Football in the 2013 draft 'cos "he is a gamer in a way Manuel will never be". That is my point here. Not that we haven't given EJ enough time - I agree if he doesn't win this job (or lose it only because magically Matt Cassel rolls back the clock to his pro bowl form which looks unlikely) then he is done here and it is time to move on. My point is only that I have basically lost the faith that our fanbase would give anyone that time unless they rip it up from day 1. Edited July 6, 2015 by GunnerBill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oberyn Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Fair enough if you were talking about not betting at Caesar's in generality but that was not apparent from your initial post, it read like you were linking the Bills' odds with your statement not to bet futures at Caesar's. As for the first bit, yes, I know all that. Believe me I know how the bookmaker business works. However, even with Caesar's high holds the Bills are not in to 7/1 4th favourite in the AFC without them taking money on it. Hearing more about your knowledge of the bookmaker business sounds about 1000 times more interesting than yet another thread on Manual. Either he will be good or he won't. The Bills have a coaching staff they pay millions to put him in a situation to succeed, and hopefully he will as it would be great for the team and organization if he does. I almost feel like people want to talk about him non-stop just so they can point back to some earlier posts and say "Look, I told you so in x thread on x day!!!" in case he does whatever it is they think he will do (good or bad). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buftex Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Based on what he's shown thus far, I don't think it's wrong of this sportswriter to assume Matt Cassel will win the job, nor to have the Bills' QB situation ranked at the bottom of the league. I think you could make an argument that Cassel/Manuel be ranked ahead of maybe the Browns and possibly the Jets but that's about it. Yet just the other day, Gugny along with a sizeable entourage in the shoutbox were insisting that EJ Manuel is already better than Ryan Tannehill right now. Not "I'd take Manuel over Tannehill because I still believe in his tools and his upside and I think Tannehill may be closer to his ceiling" (which would also be ridiculous) but that as we stand here today, Manuel has already proven himself to be better. I have a hard time not arguing with people when they express absurd opinions. I always have. Where do you stand on that issue anyway? I am not convinced that Manuel is useless...some had their mind made up about him after a small handful of games. To me, he has had 14 NFL starts...in about 6 of them, I think he played very well...in another 6 he played so-so, some good, some bad...and he had two really awful games...I just don't think we have seen enough of him to come to such definitive conclusions, as some have. Honestly, I re-watched his 4 stars from last season...the first two games (Chicago and Miami) I think he showed himself to be a credible "game managing" QB...what we have all been asking for...against San Diego, I don't think he was remarkably awful, the whole team (offense and defense) was sub-par that day...then there was the Houston game. So, he got spooked by, arguably, the best defensive player in the NFL. It happens...it certainly did that day. Sure, if a viable, legit, NFL starting caliber QB were available, I would love it if the Bills snagged him. I am not talking about McCown or Cassel... But that isn't the case. And, I am not convinced EJ can't be that guy. I find the prospect of Manuel starting much more exciting than Matt Cassel... Geno Smith, as mentioned earlier, after some really atrocious football, finally started to settle down the last month of the 2014 season...we don't have a better option, so give the kid some breathing room, and let him learn. There are people here (not necessarily you) who have been all over him since the Cleveland game his rookie season... when it comes to QB's, people are just too damned impatient. I do think the EJ has a lot of talent, and I do think, too, there is a point for some players where the "switch" flips on, and they just start to get it. But that usually comes with some failure along the way. Generally he makes good decisions, and is not a turnover machine...I think he has had 12 picks in 14 starts, and I would guess that about 6 of those came in two games. I have heard talking heads who study QB's attribute a lot of EJ's accuracy issues to his poor footwork. That is something that can be corrected, and coached. There have been comments from "insiders" saying that Rex and his staff have been surprised by how little Bills players were actually coached on the nuts and bolts of playing football, at the pro level. I don't want to make excuses for Manuel, and I don't want to blame all of his perceived woes on outside factors, but I do feel like the offense regressed a lot under Marrone and company... I am not sure that was the best staff to be handling a QB that was seen as a project coming out of the draft. Lets see what a real coaching staff can do with this kid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ko12010 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 In fairness, all of the guys we have "run out of town" since Kelly have turned out to have been worthy of being ran out of town. They should've let Flutie play maybe one more season and they should have never cut Fitzpatrick- although he wasn't a long term solution either. You also don't want to waste a season of all the great players on this roster's prime waiting for a guy to develop if your gut is that it's not happening for him. It'll work itself out. I am confident that if this coaching staff does decide to move on from Manuel that they will have done their due process and I wouldn't be too worried about him developing into a franchise QB elsewhere. EDIT: Look, I think every single person on this website would agree that if EJ Manuel can't beat out Matt Cassel in his third year in the league then it's not happening for him. I sincerely hope that people don't continue to make excuses for him if he can't win this job. If he does win the job then this debate will likely drag on for some time I would think. In fairness, all of the guys we have "run out of town" since Kelly have turned out to have been worthy of being ran out of town. They should've let Flutie play maybe one more season and they should have never cut Fitzpatrick- although he wasn't a long term solution either. You also don't want to waste a season of all the great players on this roster's prime waiting for a guy to develop if your gut is that it's not happening for him. It'll work itself out. I am confident that if this coaching staff does decide to move on from Manuel that they will have done their due process and I wouldn't be too worried about him developing into a franchise QB elsewhere. EDIT: Look, I think every single person on this website would agree that if EJ Manuel can't beat out Matt Cassel in his third year in the league then it's not happening for him. I sincerely hope that people don't continue to make excuses for him if he can't win this job. If he does win the job then this debate will likely drag on for some time I would think. This doesn't at all take into account whether the QB would have succeeded somewhere else, with different personnel, scheme, coaches, opportunity, etc. I don't think all players that failed in the NFL would have failed no matter where they ended up. Some team situations are so screwed up (Raiders, Bills, Browns, 2000-2010 for the most part) that no one could succeed there. You could argue that certain players did poorly even after leaving a bad situation, but they may have been so damaged by their experience that they had no chance to resurrect their career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinaccia Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 I took a few logic classes in my day and I would venture to say that because other successful QB's have had slow starts to their career, that does not necessarily mean that when a QB has a slow start to his career that he will probably become good. On the flip side, virtually all QB's who are unsuccessful do in fact have slow starts to their career. You will see similar arguments on here like "Andrew Luck threw a bad pass once" or "Joe Flacco had a bad game at Houston once too." Yes, all QB's have bad games. There is no correlation between other QB's also having bad games and EJ Manuel becoming a successful QB. Jamarcus Russell's chances of re-entering the NFL and becoming successful will not improve if Aaron Rodgers has a bad game in week 1. That being said, I hope you're right. Finally a voice of reason on the forum. Great post and I agree fully with you. I hope EJ becomes the guy but I am just as skeptical as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnwalter Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 I'd have though PIT, BAL, and SD would be ahead of us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Finally a voice of reason on the forum. Great post and I agree fully with you. I hope EJ becomes the guy but I am just as skeptical as you. What do you mean? I'm pretty reasonable sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 I am not convinced that Manuel is useless...some had their mind made up about him after a small handful of games. To me, he has had 14 NFL starts...in about 6 of them, I think he played very well...in another 6 he played so-so, some good, some bad...and he had two really awful games...I just don't think we have seen enough of him to come to such definitive conclusions, as some have. Honestly, I re-watched his 4 stars from last season...the first two games (Chicago and Miami) I think he showed himself to be a credible "game managing" QB...what we have all been asking for...against San Diego, I don't think he was remarkably awful, the whole team (offense and defense) was sub-par that day...then there was the Houston game. So, he got spooked by, arguably, the best defensive player in the NFL. It happens...it certainly did that day. Sure, if a viable, legit, NFL starting caliber QB were available, I would love it if the Bills snagged him. I am not talking about McCown or Cassel... But that isn't the case. And, I am not convinced EJ can't be that guy. I find the prospect of Manuel starting much more exciting than Matt Cassel... Geno Smith, as mentioned earlier, after some really atrocious football, finally started to settle down the last month of the 2014 season...we don't have a better option, so give the kid some breathing room, and let him learn. There are people here (not necessarily you) who have been all over him since the Cleveland game his rookie season... when it comes to QB's, people are just too damned impatient. I do think the EJ has a lot of talent, and I do think, too, there is a point for some players where the "switch" flips on, and they just start to get it. But that usually comes with some failure along the way. Generally he makes good decisions, and is not a turnover machine...I think he has had 12 picks in 14 starts, and I would guess that about 6 of those came in two games. I have heard talking heads who study QB's attribute a lot of EJ's accuracy issues to his poor footwork. That is something that can be corrected, and coached. There have been comments from "insiders" saying that Rex and his staff have been surprised by how little Bills players were actually coached on the nuts and bolts of playing football, at the pro level. I don't want to make excuses for Manuel, and I don't want to blame all of his perceived woes on outside factors, but I do feel like the offense regressed a lot under Marrone and company... I am not sure that was the best staff to be handling a QB that was seen as a project coming out of the draft. Lets see what a real coaching staff can do with this kid... 1. I have never said that the book is closed on EJ and that he is "useless." He could develop into a franchise QB for all I know. From what I have seen however, I find that possibility rather unlikely at this point. Perhaps more unlikely than many of the posters on here. I have never said anything otherwise. 2. EJ Manuel has had more than two awful starts in a Bills uniform. Off the top of my head, at NYJ, at Tampa Bay and at Pittsburgh his rookie year and then the two games last year (he absolutely was awful against San Diego- every bit as awful as he was at Houston). So at least 5 out of 14. Hey after the Carolina game last year, I was sure he WAS going to become the guy. I have maintained that his rookie year wasn't half bad at all. My biggest issue with him- and the one that the "14 gamers" constantly ignore- is the extent to which he regressed last offseason. He literally had one good practice all offseason- the intersquad practice with Pittsburgh. Other than that, and then in the preseason as well, he was so incredibly inept that they had to go out and make the emergency signing of Orton. Anyway we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 (edited) 1. I have never said that the book is closed on EJ and that he is "useless." He could develop into a franchise QB for all I know. From what I have seen however, I find that possibility rather unlikely at this point. Perhaps more unlikely than many of the posters on here. I have never said anything otherwise. 2. EJ Manuel has had more than two awful starts in a Bills uniform. Off the top of my head, at NYJ, at Tampa Bay and at Pittsburgh his rookie year and then the two games last year (he absolutely was awful against San Diego- every bit as awful as he was at Houston). So at least 5 out of 14. Hey after the Carolina game last year, I was sure he WAS going to become the guy. I have maintained that his rookie year wasn't half bad at all. My biggest issue with him- and the one that the "14 gamers" constantly ignore- is the extent to which he regressed last offseason. He literally had one good practice all offseason- the intersquad practice with Pittsburgh. Other than that, and then in the preseason as well, he was so incredibly inept that they had to go out and make the emergency signing of Orton. Anyway we'll see. I don't agree that he was "awful" against San Diego or at New York but the Tampa game and the Pittsburgh game were awful... every bit as bad as Houston just without a JJ Watt to show it to the world. I had some sympathy with him in Pittsburgh that said.... because I am not sure he was really back healthy and ready to play. He could hardly move. Edited July 6, 2015 by GunnerBill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uffalo Ills Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 okey dokey. Not sure if I agree or think this is 100% insane. We have all the pieces except at QB and Oline. Unfortunately, if you look at those 3 teams above us, they all at least have the QB situation figured out. (And Indy #1? C'mon, look at their defense! I'd put Baltimore up above all of these other teams. Aside from the WR position, they look to be one of the more complete teams in the AFC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 okey dokey. Not sure if I agree or think this is 100% insane. We have all the pieces except at QB and Oline. Unfortunately, if you look at those 3 teams above us, they all at least have the QB situation figured out. (And Indy #1? C'mon, look at their defense! I'd put Baltimore up above all of these other teams. Aside from the WR position, they look to be one of the more complete teams in the AFC) 2 kinda big pieces, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Very wide right Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 If the Bills had a better situation at QB I could understand this. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsguy Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Only three AFC teams have better odds. http://www.scout.com/nfl/bills/story/1560612-bills-a-vegas-favorite-for-afc-championship It depends where you shop for odds. There is no single Vegas line. It is different from place to place. I've seen the Bills no better than 10th to win the AFC. This link has them 5th currently. http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 But, doomed @theMMQB: .@Andy_Benoit ranks the NFLs projected starting quarterbacks: http://t.co/pxYgIz494T The bottom 5 could probably be in any order but still. I would take any of our 3 over McCown or Geno People keep short-changing Geno Smith. I am not a Geno smith follower or supporter. But look at his stats in the 2nd half of the season. He made a tremendous jump in his completion percentage and cut down his INTs . He is definitely showing progress and IMHO has played better than Manuel. okey dokey. Not sure if I agree or think this is 100% insane. We have all the pieces except at QB and Oline. Unfortunately, if you look at those 3 teams above us, they all at least have the QB situation figured out. (And Indy #1? C'mon, look at their defense! I'd put Baltimore up above all of these other teams. Aside from the WR position, they look to be one of the more complete teams in the AFC) Baltimore and Pittsburgh definitely would have better odds to win the AFC Championship. Both have very good QBs and a good OL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cleveland Rocks? Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 (edited) People keep short-changing Geno Smith. I am not a Geno smith follower or supporter. But look at his stats in the 2nd half of the season. He made a tremendous jump in his completion percentage and cut down his INTs . He is definitely showing progress and IMHO has played better than Manuel. Baltimore and Pittsburgh definitely would have better odds to win the AFC Championship. Both have very good QBs and a good OL. Because he sucks. He cannot read defenses (or a watch) and if he made any kind of jump I presume it is because he couldn't go any lower. He is terrible. He has a decent game here and there to get people's hopes up but he isn't NFL starter caliber to this point in his career, IMO. Watching him against any good defense is pure pain. That list of stack ranked QBs -- here is what I would say for bottom 6 32. Geno 31. Bortles 30. McCown 29. Carr 28. Hoyer 27. Cassel/Manuel Edited July 8, 2015 by Cleveland Rocks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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