Deflate-gate investigation complete

[Dorkington]

 

It's a crappy analysis, though. Developed by someone who thinks they know what statistical analysis is, but obviously doesn't.

 

Still, I like it...anything to get our resident Pats fans' panties in a bunch. I love the desperation oozing out of this thread.

 

In other words "They're my balls, and nobody's going to tell me how to play with them!"

Would love to hear your analysis, Tom, or at the very least where Sharp (and 538?) have gone wrong.

[JohnC]

 

Of course they would have, and they'd have had probable cause (in a criminal matter) out the yin-yang. In a civil context, even without Brady's cooperation they'd have enough to withstand a motion for summary judgment.

 

Many of the posters in this thread have no idea how legal standards of proof operate.

If this was a civil case who would be making the claim against Brady? The league? I don't think so. The report was written like an Inspector General report in which it would go to an agency that reviews it and then hopefully takes corrective action. There is a lot of commentary regarding hypothetically if this was a criminal or civil such and such what would happen? The reality is that this matter and report do not fall in the legal arena (courtroom sense).

Edited May 7, 2015 by JohnC

[DC Tom]

Would love to hear your analysis, Tom, or at the very least where Sharp (and 538?) have gone wrong.

 

1) Bad data collection - the analysis assumes that a fumble correlates to an offensive play. But he counts team fumbles, not just offensive fumbles. Meaning that he counts special teams fumbles against offensive touches. And that means that you only have to address one specific area of the game - controlling the ball on returns - to completely skew the results. Not only that, but the kicking balls are the only ones that are controlled by the league and can't be tampered with.

 

2) Bad assumptions. In particular, assuming that "plays per fumble" is a valid normal distribution. It's not. It can't be; there's both a theoretical (you can't fumble more than you touch the ball) and practical (realistically, you won't fumble every time you run a play) floor to the measure. "Fumbles per play" may be normally distributed, which is probably why they assumed "plays per fumble" is...but the inverse of a normal distribution is not necessarily a normal distribution itself (off the top of my head I can't think of a situation where it would be, though I could probably find one if I sat down and played with the math).

 

That's just two basic methodological flaws - a very badly specified data set, and a confused analytic method based on a bad assumption of distribution.

[The Wiz]

If this was a civil case who would be making the claim against Brady? The league? I don't think so. The report was written like an Inspector General report in which it would go to an agency that reviews it and then hopefully takes corrective action. There is a lot of commentary regarding hypothetically if this was a criminal or civil such and such what would happen? The reality is that this matter and report do not fall in the legal arena (courtroom sense).

The report itself is done as a civil case. The NFL conduct committee is a different story. Might as well spin the shanna-ban wheel used in the NHL.

[BackInDaDay]

worse thing the league could do to Brady is to keep him on the field against our D.

i want him to take his beat down twice this year from us, and maybe two more from the Jets.. and if that dirty bastard Suh wants to stomp him.. have at it. 😀

[Reed83HOF]

NY Tabloids are the best

 

Pic 1

 

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[YoloinOhio]

@Rachel__Nichols: At college appearance, Tom Brady says he's still reading the report, doesn't want to comment until he's more comfortable with what it says.

@nflnetwork: "I don't have any reaction. It's only been 30 hours, I haven't had much time to digest it." http://t.co/LMoSjrdY17

 

@AroundTheNFL: Gray asked if Wells Report diminished enjoyment of Super Bowl: Absolutely not, Brady says with a big smile.

[May Day 10]

Lol

[JohnC]

The report itself is done as a civil case. The NFL conduct committee is a different story. Might as well spin the shanna-ban wheel used in the NHL.

This case was not conducted or written up as if it was a civil case. If this was a civil case (formal legal proceeding) phone and text records would have been subpoenaed. My understanding is that Brady did not give up his records. Texts were reviewed but not a full accounting of the pertinent records. As I said in a prior post this report was written similar to an Inspector General report. This report made a lot of judgments (mostly reasonable) that would not have been made in a criminal or civil case (to such an extent) unless there was more harder evidence.

 

The report was made for the Commissioner's office so that he would know what happened so he can make a disciplinary decision. If you believe that this matter is going to turn into a formal legal battle then that is your opinion. I don't believe that it will.

Edited May 8, 2015 by JohnC

[YoloinOhio]

@Rachel__Nichols: Tom Brady on Wells Report: "I haven't had much time to digest it. When I do I'll let you know."

Jim Gray: "Are you that slow a reader?"

 

@FieldYates: Tom Brady's reaction to Wells report: "I don't have really any reaction, Jim. Our owner commented on it." Will "hopefully" address it soon.

 

@SalSports: Brady: "I'm used to reading Xs and Os. This was a little bit longer" re: Wells Report

Edited May 8, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[Pneumonic]

 

Which is absurd -- and made by a man paid by Brady to make him look good. If you give his opinion equal weight to that of Wells, you're a sucker. That's his job.

 

I would agree with you if I was certain that the Wells report was in fact done without bias. Given many of the inconsistencies in this report, I wonder.

[Georgia Bill]

The most interesting thing will be Bradys actual statement.

 

Will he toe the party line of Kraft and his lawyer and attack the accuser?

 

Or the opposite and issue a full apology?

 

My bet he'll try to find somewhere in the middle. Say he told the guys to let some air out, but only because he thought they felt a little over inflated. That he never intended to circumvent the rule. Only trying to get them to where they felt right. And the little perks he gave the guys weren't for helping him break any rules, but only to reward them when they got them to the levels he felt most comfortable with. "I know now i should have been a lot more careful. And mostly I want to say how sorry I am that my actions have in any way reflected poorly on Mr. Kraft, Coach Bellicheck, and the Patriots organization as a whole. They deserve a lot better from me. As do the our fans, the greatest in the world. From this point I can only try my utmost best to learn from this, and become a better person as a result".

I think you've got what his stance will be about right. It could take the sting out of anything else that would come out thereafter.

 

At any rate, further back it showed that the report said that three of the balls measured as expected due to plain old temp drop, and that the rest had some unaccounted additional pressure drops. So what we're probably talking about is balls that were a tad under, after you account for temp drop. Not really a big deal, and I doubt that we see a Brady suspension. This is more of a slap on the wrist type situation. Although here in our little Bills world, in the offseason this should be good for about a 100 page thread

[Pneumonic]

 

How is that relevant to the question of whether weather conditions, alone, could have caused the drop in pressure? I was responding to the post by Fan in San Diego, where he stated that:

 

"Cold rainy weather would have caused the balls to lose some inflation. Brady's psi is 12.5, Lucks is higher like 13 if I remember right. The balls sit outside during the game. They would have deflated some by halftime."

 

The number of Colts footballs that were measured has nothing to do with the question of whether weather conditions could have caused the Patriots footballs to drop from 12.5 PSI to the air pressures measured at half time. The report concluded that "application of the Ideal Gas Law within the context of the most likely game day conditions cannot account entirely for the pressure drops observed in the Patriots halftime measurements."They could have measured zero Colts footballs and still reached this conclusion. It's just a question of physics, not a comparison of the Patriots footballs to the Colts footballs. Do you disagree?

 

Ooops, sorry only that 1 sentence got posted. This is what I wrote wrt ref incompetancy

 

That they were only capable of measuring 4 of the Colts balls means the results aren’t statistically relevant since the sample size is not large enough. Let’s consider that if you compare the Pats four highest PSI footballs to the four of the Colts, the drop in pressure as a percentage of original PSI is statistically insignificant.

 

Further, the entire premise of using the Colts balls as the control group is folly unless the process is ….. “controlled”. There is no proof that this happened. I would question at least 2 things here relative to the competency of those involved:

 

A) Did the Colts balls reach equilibrium temperature at the beginning of the game?

B) Were the Colts balls measured at the same time as the Pats balls during 1/2time?

 

Further incompetency is suggested as a result of the refs failing to use the same gauges on the same balls before/at half. Or, how about Anderson not being competent enough to recall if he initialized kicking balls (yet he’s fully competent enough to remember the PSI’s of 24 balls pre game) Maybe this memory block also helps explain why the balls disappeared for the first time in said ref's 19 year tenure …… Or, how about the refs not knowing that they, not the Colts, are the only ones allowed to test footballs during a game?

 

Your words were that "the league got what they wanted in all of this." I'm asking how you concluded that the league wanted the report to conclude that Brady cheated. Do you believe that the league engaged in a sting operation hoping to catch Brady cheating and publicly reveal him as a cheater, or is there some other reason you believe that the league wanted this result?

 

I am at least open to the possibility that Yee's contention of sting could be in play. With this league's administration, I believe anything is possible.

Edited May 8, 2015 by Pneumonic

[YoloinOhio]

@DanWetzel: Seems like Brady will allow his attorneys to respond to Wells Report, which is wise. NFL should expect a serious fight.

 

#ontopittsburgh

[Reed83HOF]

Andrew Brandt ‏@adbrandt 16m16 minutes ago

Brady: "I don't have any reaction." Translation: "I'm pissed, but my lawyer won't let me say that."

[The Wiz]

This case was not conducted or written up as if it was a civil case. If this was a civil case (formal legal proceeding) phone and text records would have been subpoenaed. My understanding is that Brady did not give up his records. Texts were reviewed but not a full accounting of the pertinent records. As I said in a prior post this report was written similar to an Inspector General report. This report made a lot of judgments (mostly reasonable) that would not have been made in a criminal or civil case (to such an extent) unless there was more harder evidence.

 

The report was made for the Commissioner's office so that he would know what happened so he can make a disciplinary decision. If you believe that this matter is going to turn into a formal legal battle then that is your opinion. I don't believe that it will.

You misunderstood what I meant. The investigation was done as if it were a civil case but done within the confines of the NFL. This isn't going to end up like Bond/Clemens for sure but the firm was still approaching the situation as a civil case with the NFL limits. The rules of a civil case didn't apply the same as they would have in a normal civil case which is why a lot of judgement needed to be made (particularly things like Brady no cooperating or handing over his communications involved in the case).

[Pneumonic]

This case was not conducted or written up as if it was a civil case. If this was a civil case (formal legal proceeding) phone and text records would have been subpoenaed. My understanding is that Brady did not give up his records. Texts were reviewed but not a full accounting of the pertinent records. As I said in a prior post this report was written similar to an Inspector General report. This report made a lot of judgments (mostly reasonable) that would not have been made in a criminal or civil case (to such an extent) unless there was more harder evidence.

 

The report was made for the Commissioner's office so that he would know what happened so he can make a disciplinary decision. If you believe that this matter is going to turn into a formal legal battle then that is your opinion. I don't believe that it will.

 

And, after all this time, energy and $ spent, what was the report summary given:

 

“In sum, the data did not provide a basis for us to determine with absolute certainty whether there was or was not tampering as the analysis of such data ultimately is dependent upon assumptions and information that is not certain.”

 

Lawyers and billable hours!

[YoloinOhio]

@hsimon62: Sothis would be okay, right? Report: Tom Brady could be suspended for up to one year http://t.co/9K4YzUShBKvia @cbssports

[DC Tom]

@Rachel__Nichols: At college appearance, Tom Brady says he's still reading the report, doesn't want to comment until he's more comfortable with what it says.

 

Still reading it? What, does he move his lips when he reads?

[ko12010]

I think you've got what his stance will be about right. It could take the sting out of anything else that would come out thereafter.

 

At any rate, further back it showed that the report said that three of the balls measured as expected due to plain old temp drop, and that the rest had some unaccounted additional pressure drops. So what we're probably talking about is balls that were a tad under, after you account for temp drop. Not really a big deal, and I doubt that we see a Brady suspension. This is more of a slap on the wrist type situation. Although here in our little Bills world, in the offseason this should be good for about a 100 page thread

Still can't believe people think underinflated footballs don't give a significant advantage. They do.