Rockinon Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) I knew the title would get a rise out of someone. Edited March 25, 2015 by Rockinon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Sure looks like a passing league-- by a 3:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted March 25, 2015 Author Share Posted March 25, 2015 Sure looks like a passing league-- by a 3:1 ratio And the conversion rate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 And the conversion rate? It hasn't been persuasive, I guess. They are still passing instead by a wide margin. Still a passing league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Why does 3rd and 2 say whether it's a passing league or not? All this says is what people do on 3rd and 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Why does 3rd and 2 say whether it's a passing league or not? All this says is what people do on 3rd and 2. Yea- terrible thread premise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I complete more urine in the toilet when I sit down vs standing 5ft away but the 5ft away approach is more appealing to spectators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I complete more urine in the toilet when I sit down vs standing 5ft away but the 5ft away approach is more appealing to spectators. Yeah but we're talking about a moving toilet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Yeah but we're talking about a moving toilet. So me trying to hit it from 5ft away makes it even more appealing instead of sitting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToGoGo Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) Football is just too complex a game with too many variables to use a simple table like that and get too many conclusions from that data. What the data tells me is that running on 3rd and short is attempted less, but has become much more successful. What this data needs is to be segmented further to find out WHY running on third and short is converting better even with passing attempts on 3rd and short staying the same. With so many variables, I wish you luck on finding the answer, although I'm sure it's very possible to find out. Very interesting though. Maybe coordinators are getting smarter. Edited March 25, 2015 by musichunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) It seems to me that those stats show a gradual decrease in runs and a gradual increase in passing. The increase in run conversion percentage is most likely due to simple analytics. Teams notice that running on 3rd and 2 has been declining....so they focus their defenses more often to stop the pass.....therefore there is a higher chance of converting via the run. Edited March 25, 2015 by Dibs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Why does 3rd and 2 say whether it's a passing league or not? All this says is what people do on 3rd and 2. Yeah that's pretty much all that needs to be said as far as this thread goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Interesting stats. I would have guessed the exact opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uffalo Ills Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Why 3rd and 2? Why now 2nd and 2 or 3rd and 4 or 1st and 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) Well, if third and 2 is a running down the vast majority of the time, then it sure as hell isn't a run dominated league. Edited March 25, 2015 by PlayoffsPlease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 And are the teams that are running it more on 3rd and 2, also the teams that have crap QB's? What are the teams like the Broncos, Pats, Saints, Colts, etc, doing on 3rd and short? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToGoGo Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 It seems to me that those stats show a gradual decrease in runs and a gradual increase in passing. The increase in run conversion percentage is most likely due to simple analytics. Teams notice that running on 3rd and 2 has been declining....so they focus their defenses more often to stop the pass.....therefore there is a higher chance of converting via the run. I don't see the gradual increase in passes though. I see passing remaining static (as well as the conversion rates) while runs going down (with higher conversion rate). This is data that definitely has an interesting story behind it. The problem is there are a lot of variables to go over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) I don't see the gradual increase in passes though. I see passing remaining static (as well as the conversion rates) while runs going down (with higher conversion rate). This is data that definitely has an interesting story behind it. The problem is there are a lot of variables to go over. My assumption: There are less third and short opportunities because of the focus on penalties on the defense. Namely, illegal contact and defensive holding coupled with roughing the passer and defenseless receiver calls which have been the focus of the refs over the past few years. Not only do these all provide automatic first downs, but they also provide a more open passing game to convert longer plays (also taking away more third and short plays). As far as the passing plays remaining static, you have to look at it as a percentage of total plays, not just as a number. 35% of the plays were run plays in 2009, in 2014 it was down to 26%. That's a significant decrease (and subsequent increase in passing) in running plays as a ratio. Edited March 25, 2015 by Mark80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) People will believe anything if you put lipstick on it. >> STATS LIE. then can be manipulated to prove almost anything. 3rd and 2 is a rushing down. especially if you have a RB with a 4.2 + YPC avg. 3rd and 5 or more is a passing down. Yea- terrible thread premise If I may be so bold terrible thread premise - period And the conversion rate? as noted.... higher for the Run than the Pass. Edited March 25, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fingon Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 If it's a passing league, then that means defenses are built to stop the pass, not the ground and pound. LB are smaller, faster players, and nickel being most team's base defense means an extra corner will be on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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