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Rivers in 2016?


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Ya.... 1 of those people would possibly be our starting LT...... lets make another hole on the OL. GOOD CALL COACH. I don't know if you can note my sarcasm.

 

Rivers is good, but I would not trade him for losing 2 of the following:

 

Marcell Dareus

Stephon Gilmore

Nigel Bradham

Cordy Glenn

Robert Woods

Leodis McKelvin

 

This doesn't even cover the fact that I'm not mentioning people who playing this year for the starting job or important backups and if they become key cogs to the team we end up with more issues:

 

Percy Harvin

Richie Incognito

Anthony Dixon

Jarius Wynn

Ron Brooks

Duke Williams

Johnathan Meeks

Nickell Robey

Bacarri Rambo

Stefan Charles

Chris Hogan

Corbin Bryant

 

Tell me again how much cap room we have. I didn't even bother listing 2/3rd of our TE's who also have to be paid over the next two years. Assuming a raise of the cap to 150 million, and only 5 million being spent on draft picks (really low amount it here but makes my math easier) We have 20 Million to work with . So you would go get Rivers, and possibly let go of 2 starting Oline men and possibly more?

 

Looking at at best case scenarios, Incognito takes C.Williams contract and that becomes a wash. Mario Williams restructures and the money saved allows us to maintain Dareus. The hate on this board for McKelvin is built rightfully so, however last year he made an amazing leap forward in terms of ability and play level. If he keeps it up this year, It would be hard to say oh just drop him, considering our mixed bag of depth at CB/S.

 

I would love Rivers, but 1) we can't truly afford him 2) he doesn't want to come up here it would cost us even more money to convince him to and at his age, and the options he has, he would have no reason to take more money to go somewhere he doesn't want too.

1st how do you know that he wouldn't want to come to Buffalo? There is no evidence to support that claim. If you want to prove your point don't just make up stuff and try to pass it through as fact. He has been in the league 10+ years and probably would look at the Bills as his best chance to win a Super Bowl (Bills or Texans IMO).

 

In terms of affording him you can restructure Mario and open $12M in cap space and cut Cassel and open another $4.75M. That's just off of the top of my head. I'm not seeing this roster gutting that you are referring to.

 

The real issue is the compensation that it will take to get him. I guess that you could send your 2 this year, a QB and the next 2 number 1's or something like that. I would do it in a second.

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Living in LA I'm sure you've come across plenty of people who live in the valley/west side/OC who would hate living elsewhere in the city -- let alone San Diego. I imagine the same would apply for some folks living in San Diego when they think of Los Angeles.

 

That said, I agree with you that it's nuts. But if it helps Buffalo get a QB like Rivers, I'm all for nutty.

 

Yeah, but like I said, he could easily live in any of those beach communities or the OC, and it would be just like San Diego. It's not like he has to live in West Hollywood, or downtown LA.

 

I found this..

http://www.celebritydetective.com/Celebrity_Homes_Philip-Rivers-house-profile.html

 

He lives on a golf course (basically)...surely there are plenty of these country club communities peppered throughout the OC? It's not even close to the Chargers facilities, so it's not about convenience.

 

http://www.santaluz.com/Location

 

It's a smokescreen of some kind.

Edited by HoF Watkins
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Yeah, but like I said, he could easily live in any of those beach communities or the OC, and it would be just like San Diego. It's not like he has to live in West Hollywood, or downtown LA.

 

I found this..

http://www.celebritydetective.com/Celebrity_Homes_Philip-Rivers-house-profile.html

 

He lives on a golf course (basically)...surely there are plenty of these country club communities peppered throughout the OC? It's not even close to the Chargers facilities, so it's not about convenience.

 

http://www.santaluz.com/Location

 

It's a smokescreen of some kind.

Agreed, it feels like a convenient way of saying "I want to win a title and don't see it happening here." He can save face by making it about relocation.
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Yeah, but like I said, he could easily live in any of those beach communities or the OC, and it would be just like San Diego. It's not like he has to live in West Hollywood, or downtown LA.

 

I found this..

http://www.celebritydetective.com/Celebrity_Homes_Philip-Rivers-house-profile.html

 

He lives on a golf course (basically)...surely there are plenty of these country club communities peppered throughout the OC? It's not even close to the Chargers facilities, so it's not about convenience.

 

http://www.santaluz.com/Location

 

It's a smokescreen of some kind.

 

I don't think you're wrong at all, but it just wouldn't shock me if it turned out to be legit. Mainly because of the amount of nutters out here. :beer:

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1st how do you know that he wouldn't want to come to Buffalo? There is no evidence to support that claim. If you want to prove your point don't just make up stuff and try to pass it through as fact. He has been in the league 10+ years and probably would look at the Bills as his best chance to win a Super Bowl (Bills or Texans IMO).

 

In terms of affording him you can restructure Mario and open $12M in cap space and cut Cassel and open another $4.75M. That's just off of the top of my head. I'm not seeing this roster gutting that you are referring to.

 

The real issue is the compensation that it will take to get him. I guess that you could send your 2 this year, a QB and the next 2 number 1's or something like that. I would do it in a second.

 

You're right I'm speculating based on what all the news outlets are saying regarding his interest to stay in the south regarding his desire to come to the bills.

 

How the hell are you going to open $12 million in cap space on a mario restructure? Regardless, Mario's Restructure is going to cover our resigning of Dareus, sooooooo thats a wash. Just like what I'm going to say the C.Williams contract going to Rich Incognito. Also hate to tell you, but Cassel isn't on our 2016 payroll. so that 4.75 you saved..... you didn't. Lets not forget the following players who will be off rookie contracts : Gilmore, Glenn, and Bradham and god forbid Percy Harvin is worth a dam..... theres another contract that should we option to pick it up, is 6 million that isn't even counted on our 2016 salary yet.

 

If you're going to call me out for speculating Rivers desire to play outside of the south from what I've been reading in the news, you can at least look at our cap numbers and compare/project based on performance likely contract numbers for players we need to pay in 2016.

 

Lets assume Dareus is completely covered by the Mario Restructure (imo not a realistic assumption he's going to get something in the range of 16 million a year)

Gilmore: Looking at 5-8 million a year

Glenn: Looking at 4-6 million a year

Bradham: at least 3 million a year

 

Assuming we can get their yearly cap numbers to be the low end, that's 12 of our 20 million open cap space. But wait... lets talk about back up players that aren't being counted towards this:

 

Ron Brooks

Nickell Robey

Bacarri Rambo

Stefan Charles

MarQueis Gray

Chris Hogan

Corbin Bryant

 

Note: I didn't list everyone who's contracts are up, I purposely choose these 7 players because they see/will see meaningful playing time during a season.

 

Lets just assume that these guys are looking at 600k a person for contracts, thats over 4 Million dollars but we'll round down. However thats being insulting to some of these players. With the exception of Gray and Rambo who rae completely untested in terms of actual team value, each of those names are worth at least 1 million in the market and rightfully so.

 

That leaves us with 4 million in spending money next season if we resign these guys are the low end of what I've put up there. We can use those low ends and assume that the players all receive signing bonuses and the bonus is deferred over the full length of their contracts. None of the Clay contract bull crap where we load the bonus into a specific year of the contract just to spite another team.

 

So where are you pulling the, and I'll be kind 15 million a year to pay for RIvers? At what point do you not just throw in Brees to the conversation, as well as Eli? Both contracts are up, Brees seems to be pretty pissed off and has refused to renegotiate his contract to help the Saints escape contract hell. He may not want to resign there and the Saints may not be willing to pay a kings ransom again for his services. Eli's contract is up and while I could not see the Giants just letting him go, they are letting him play out his contract. Why not throw money at the guy that won two rings? Eli with a running game and a punishing D got it done twice.

Edited by RK_BillsFan
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I don't think you're wrong at all, but it just wouldn't shock me if it turned out to be legit. Mainly because of the amount of nutters out here. :beer:

 

Haha, Yes, there is a high concentration of nuts in LA, but he just has to work there. San Diego just feels like a distant suburb of LA to me.

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You're right I'm speculating based on what all the news outlets are saying regarding his interest to stay in the south regarding his desire to come to the bills.

 

How the hell are you going to open $12 million in cap space on a mario restructure? Regardless, Mario's Restructure is going to cover our resigning of Dareus, sooooooo thats a wash. Just like what I'm going to say the C.Williams contract going to Rich Incognito. Also hate to tell you, but Cassel isn't on our 2016 payroll. so that 4.75 you saved..... you didn't. Lets not forget the following players who will be off rookie contracts : Gilmore, Glenn, and Bradham and god forbid Percy Harvin is worth a dam..... theres another contract that should we option to pick it up, is 6 million that isn't even counted on our 2016 salary yet.

 

If you're going to call me out for speculating Rivers desire to play outside of the south from what I've been reading in the news, you can at least look at our cap numbers and compare/project based on performance likely contract numbers for players we need to pay in 2016.

 

Lets assume Dareus is completely covered by the Mario Restructure (imo not a realistic assumption he's going to get something in the range of 16 million a year)

Gilmore: Looking at 5-8 million a year

Glenn: Looking at 4-6 million a year

Bradham: at least 3 million a year

 

Assuming we can get their yearly cap numbers to be the low end, that's 12 of our 20 million open cap space. But wait... lets talk about back up players that aren't being counted towards this:

 

Ron Brooks

Nickell Robey

Bacarri Rambo

Stefan Charles

MarQueis Gray

Chris Hogan

Corbin Bryant

 

Note: I didn't list everyone who's contracts are up, I purposely choose these 7 players because they see/will see meaningful playing time during a season.

 

Lets just assume that these guys are looking at 600k a person for contracts, thats over 4 Million dollars but we'll round down. However thats being insulting to some of these players. With the exception of Gray and Rambo who rae completely untested in terms of actual team value, each of those names are worth at least 1 million in the market and rightfully so.

 

That leaves us with 4 million in spending money next season if we resign these guys are the low end of what I've put up there. We can use those low ends and assume that the players all receive signing bonuses and the bonus is deferred over the full length of their contracts. None of the Clay contract bull crap where we load the bonus into a specific year of the contract just to spite another team.

 

So where are you pulling the, and I'll be kind 15 million a year to pay for RIvers? At what point do you not just throw in Brees to the conversation, as well as Eli? Both contracts are up, Brees seems to be pretty pissed off and has refused to renegotiate his contract to help the Saints escape contract hell. He may not want to resign there and the Saints may not be willing to pay a kings ransom again for his services. Eli's contract is up and while I could not see the Giants just letting him go, they are letting him play out his contract. Why not throw money at the guy that won two rings? Eli with a running game and a punishing D got it done twice.

There is so much here that is just not factually accurate. There is a BIG difference between cap hit and annual average salary. Dareus and Mario have a combined cap hit this year of roughly $28M. It isn't unrealistic at all to think that they could have the same combined cap hit next year.

 

In terms of the Clay deal it was structured as it was so that Miami couldn't match not "out of spite." I believe that you can restructure a player that was on a transition tag in year 2. If that is the case you will see his cap number go down from $13.5 M to about $6M.

 

In terms of Cassel I thought that we were talking about how to fit Rivers in 2015 so that was just some $ to free up.

 

Gilmore at $5M-$8M is a dream. You are looking at double that. The same goes for Bradham.

 

In terms of Rivers wanting to play in the South that is also speculation. Rivers has indicated that he doesn't want to play in LA and bring his 7 home schooled kids along with him. They speculate the Titans because they are a few hours from his home town and have the number 2 pick.

 

The point being is that you keep rolling the cap forward. I'm on my phone so I really didn't look at the bonus structure on all of these but you can convert them to stretch them over more years. The Saints have been doing it. If your owner is willing to spend crazy cash you have much more flexibility. It appears that the Bills are in this situation. I'm not saying that it is simple but it can be done without gutting the roster.

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kirby - he also seems to neglect that a lot of those role players will be replaced by draft picks and other cheap vets as you cycle guys through. to declare guys like brooks, rambo, gray, hogan and bryant are all going to be on the roster at 1m+ each i think is unrealistic.

 

then of course theres him saying maybe the cap bumps to 150m, but weve seen reports of possibly as high as 160m because the new TV deals will be hitting the calculation.

 

and like you have pointed out, a guy like dareus might have a LOWER cap hit in his first year of the extension.

 

while, theres a lot in play and to consider but if a franchise qb costs me bradham, hogan, and stefan charles (and causes me to otherwise be quiet in free agency) due to cap constraints - sign me up! heck, even if we end up with a mid tier vet instead of a guy like gilmore or glenn - we are talking about a franchise qb. given our last decade watching the pats cycle their roster, im amazed any bills fan would hesitate.

Edited by NoSaint
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There is so much here that is just not factually accurate. There is a BIG difference between cap hit and annual average salary. Dareus and Mario have a combined cap hit this year of roughly $28M. It isn't unrealistic at all to think that they could have the same combined cap hit next year.

 

In terms of the Clay deal it was structured as it was so that Miami couldn't match not "out of spite." I believe that you can restructure a player that was on a transition tag in year 2. If that is the case you will see his cap number go down from $13.5 M to about $6M.

 

In terms of Cassel I thought that we were talking about how to fit Rivers in 2015 so that was just some $ to free up.

 

Gilmore at $5M-$8M is a dream. You are looking at double that. The same goes for Bradham.

 

In terms of Rivers wanting to play in the South that is also speculation. Rivers has indicated that he doesn't want to play in LA and bring his 7 home schooled kids along with him. They speculate the Titans because they are a few hours from his home town and have the number 2 pick.

 

The point being is that you keep rolling the cap forward. I'm on my phone so I really didn't look at the bonus structure on all of these but you can convert them to stretch them over more years. The Saints have been doing it. If your owner is willing to spend crazy cash you have much more flexibility. It appears that the Bills are in this situation. I'm not saying that it is simple but it can be done without gutting the roster.

 

Basically this ^

 

Also, regarding the role players mentioned:

 

- Ron Brooks will likely be let go assuming Cockrell can play ST

- Every single one of the others will be RFAs and can be tendered at the lowest level

 

As to Mario, I'll stick by my theory that he gets a new contract next year that gives him a boatload of guaranteed money and pushes all the base salary out to the final year of the deal, when he'll either retire or be let go.

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There is so much here that is just not factually accurate. There is a BIG difference between cap hit and annual average salary. Dareus and Mario have a combined cap hit this year of roughly $28M. It isn't unrealistic at all to think that they could have the same combined cap hit next year.

 

In terms of the Clay deal it was structured as it was so that Miami couldn't match not "out of spite." I believe that you can restructure a player that was on a transition tag in year 2. If that is the case you will see his cap number go down from $13.5 M to about $6M.

 

In terms of Cassel I thought that we were talking about how to fit Rivers in 2015 so that was just some $ to free up.

 

Gilmore at $5M-$8M is a dream. You are looking at double that. The same goes for Bradham.

 

In terms of Rivers wanting to play in the South that is also speculation. Rivers has indicated that he doesn't want to play in LA and bring his 7 home schooled kids along with him. They speculate the Titans because they are a few hours from his home town and have the number 2 pick.

 

The point being is that you keep rolling the cap forward. I'm on my phone so I really didn't look at the bonus structure on all of these but you can convert them to stretch them over more years. The Saints have been doing it. If your owner is willing to spend crazy cash you have much more flexibility. It appears that the Bills are in this situation. I'm not saying that it is simple but it can be done without gutting the roster.

I understand the difference between salary and cap hit. I'm not referring to actual salary, but actual cap hits.

Mario is sitting at 19.4m this year and 19.9m next year

Dareus is 8m this year and currently 0 next year.

 

As I said I gave you a even wash for Dareus in terms of cap hit based on a Mario Restructuring. Based on what Whaley has said this is going to happen and just a matter of time and numbers.

 

The phins COULD have matched the Clay deal. It would have been extremely stupid. Honestly, we could have structured that deal better, but it was laid out specifically to target the extremely tight cap the phins have in 2016.

 

Like i said this is for 2016, not this year, Cassel isn't on the books, nor do I know if he would be on the team if we got Rivers. Who do we want as back up? Not sure what it would cost us in possible dead cap space to drop EJ but keep Cassel if we were to land Rivers.

 

Gilmore and Bradham numbers were anticipated cap hits, which leads into the next part about bonuses with rolling over money. Bonuses being rolled over is great, so long as the player stays for the full duration of the contract. I feel that both of these guys will be here for the duration of any contract we give them. I'm sure you know that anytime you have a contract where a signing bonus is spread over years and the player leaves, the team is then forced to pay out the remainder that year and it becomes dead cap space.

 

Gilmore at 8m a year with idk, lets say a 18m signing bonus spread over 6 years (broken down as we see fit since it does not have to be the same outside of it being guaranteed) could be a realistic cap hit (8m) for the 2016 cap

 

As for Bradham. He did great last year, and i'm curious to know if it we Schwartz D or if he just came into his own and rededicated himself to the game he loves. There was an article related to it. I think his price will be dependent on how well he fits rex's scheme. I just looked up some LB contracts, and honestly, 5m a year sounds pretty spot on.

 

kirby - he also seems to neglect that a lot of those role players will be replaced by draft picks and other cheap vets as you cycle guys through. to declare guys like brooks, rambo, gray, hogan and bryant are all going to be on the roster at 1m+ each i think is unrealistic.

 

then of course theres him saying maybe the cap bumps to 150m, but weve seen reports of possibly as high as 160m because the new TV deals will be hitting the calculation.

 

and like you have pointed out, a guy like dareus might have a LOWER cap hit in his first year of the extension.

 

while, theres a lot in play and to consider but if a franchise qb costs me bradham, hogan, and stefan charles (and causes me to otherwise be quiet in free agency) due to cap constraints - sign me up! heck, even if we end up with a mid tier vet instead of a guy like gilmore or glenn - we are talking about a franchise qb. given our last decade watching the pats cycle their roster, im amazed any bills fan would hesitate.

 

I didn't mean that all of them were worth 1 million, but some of them certainly are worth more...... which if you take some being worth less, the average contract value of 600k was a nice way of not spending time playing with those numbers. I also choose players that again I know saw meaningful playing time and have shown value to the time.

 

If the cap raises to 160....... This isn't even a question, I'd pull the trigger,

 

I understand your last point about watching the pats cycle their roster around their franchise QB. There is a difference though. Rivers is good, a top 10 QB in the league for sure. My only complaint with him is he can often try to shoulder the burden of winning and can be prone to mistakes. He's like a less frustrating version of Cutler. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have him on the roster, and i fully agree we would be SB contenders in reality and everyone's eyes if he was here.

 

I'm not able to see what Rex will keep on the D and what he will want to bring in. Realistically we could use another Safety, or rather a better second one. We could also use a better Corner in our reserves. We have an oddity in Corey Graham who is able to play both positions at a high level. Would he be better served playing in 1 position? Does he make it possible to carry 1 less low tier S and CB?

 

We are also thin at LB on paper, but then again Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes will be in some DE/LB hybrid possibly.

 

We are PAINFULLY thin at TE.

 

I'm not saying there would be a gutting of the team, but there would be sacrifices (assuming 150 million cap). We are already sitting at 125 million spent. I took away 5 million for rookies. What magic are you proposing we pull for that 20 million. If possible, it would help me see a better view if you could give me your anticipated break down of contracts. Lets keep it simple, if you could show me how to you would restructure or sign the following or who you would let go (just so I can get a better hold of your view since my math in my head says it would be difficult to find room):

 

Mario Williams

Marcell Dareus

Cordy Glenn

Stephone Gilmore

Nigel Bradham

 

And again if we are talking of bringing in Rivers, why don't we consider Brees and Eli.

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Maybe Rivers is the nut?

Rivers doesn't want to go to LA. Because he has options. It's his decision. He can become a FA. Just because someone else thinks living near there is the same as SD doesn't mean he does. He wants control over his career and he doesn't particularly love what the chargers are doing personnel-wise. Sure, maybe it's just a ploy to get more money from the Chargers and if he gets wgat he wants he signs an extension before this season. But his feelings about LA aren't invalid. It's his own opinion.
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Lets keep it simple, if you could show me how to you would restructure or sign the following or who you would let go (just so I can get a better hold of your view since my math in my head says it would be difficult to find room):

 

Mario Williams

Marcell Dareus

Cordy Glenn

Stephone Gilmore

Nigel Bradham

 

And again if we are talking of bringing in Rivers, why don't we consider Brees and Eli.

brees simply wont be available until hes atleast 37 years old. im not saying id never consider him, but rivers just turned 33. thats 4 big years. eli could be, and hes been discussed, but i think the consensus here is that rivers is the better player (and a year younger).

 

 

as to the cap - within the last year i think all the projections ive seen have turned from "could break 150" (from schefter in early 2014) to "possibly as high as $160" (PFT has a good article about the tv money kicking in). if you pencil in $155 i think its a safe area to project.

 

 

as to structures, i do not have time currently to outline year by year cap hits for 5 players (i wouldnt call that keeping it simple) but encourage you to click around spotrac and look at a few big deals. there are a ton of ways to structure things.

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Rivers doesn't want to go to LA. Because he has options. It's his decision. He can become a FA. Just because someone else thinks living near there is the same as SD doesn't mean he does. He wants control over his career and he doesn't particularly love what the chargers are doing personnel-wise. Sure, maybe it's just a ploy to get more money from the Chargers and if he gets wgat he wants he signs an extension before this season. But his feelings about LA aren't invalid. It's his own opinion.

 

What are his feelings about LA? We know he says he doesn't want to play/live there, but why? And If you don't know why, how can you say is feelings are reasonable or not?

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What are his feelings about LA? We know he says he doesn't want to play/live there, but why? And If you don't know why, how can you say is feelings are reasonable or not?

because they are his own feelings. It doesn't matter whether anyone else thinks they are reasonable, or whether you think there is a difference between the two areas. I do think it is more than just the move. But it is a factor. He has options and can do whatever he wants. Edited by YoloinOhio
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because they are his own feelings. It doesn't matter whether anyone else thinks they are reasonable, or whether you think there is a difference between the two areas. I do think it is more than just the move. But it is a factor. He has options and can do whatever he wants.

They say that it has to do with his 7 kids.

 

One thing that is weird about the Rivers situation is that he actually has leverage. He has made SO much money that he can legitimately walk away from the game. Most guys can't (or won't) do that. When you've already made $100+M it tips the scales some.

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They say that it has to do with his 7 kids.

 

One thing that is weird about the Rivers situation is that he actually has leverage. He has made SO much money that he can legitimately walk away from the game. Most guys can't (or won't) do that. When you've already made $100+M it tips the scales some.

 

 

They are home schooled, apparently at their gated community home. Plenty of uber-safe, white-bread, country club, gated communities, a one hour drive north (they can still visit their old friends even, it's way closer than any other city he could play for). They don't have to mix with the LA locals...

 

If he is that concerned, it wouldn't be that difficult to remain at his current home, and commute to LA.

 

I don't think he is leveraging for more money. He is a straight shooter (I listen to a bit of San Diego sports talk), but there is likely more to it than just not wanting to move his kids to LA. It could just be a power struggle within the organization.

Edited by HoF Watkins
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Stephon Gilmore is going to get paid. While the Dareus contract rightfully dominates the headlines, I think we'll all be surprised by the numbers he's going to get. Especially with Rex not wanting to lose his best CB.

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because they are his own feelings. It doesn't matter whether anyone else thinks they are reasonable, or whether you think there is a difference between the two areas. I do think it is more than just the move. But it is a factor. He has options and can do whatever he wants.

 

 

So ANY opinion or feeling, is reasonable?

 

He can do what he likes, but the discussion is about his motivation for saying he doesn't want to play in LA. We are working with the information that has been made public, and the reason he gave doesn't make much sense. This has been discussed on the radio here in both LA and SD, and plenty questioned his statement, and countered with the same points I made.

 

It might read well to people elsewhere in the country, though... "yeah, he doesn't want his kids in that liberal cesspool of sin, Los Angeles", but anyone that has been through the area south of LA knows that it is nothing like the city. It's the Orange Curtain..

 

And again, if he was REALLY super concerned, he could remain in his current home, and commute to LA. Plenty of people have longer commutes.

Edited by HoF Watkins
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Stephon Gilmore is going to get paid. While the Dareus contract rightfully dominates the headlines, I think we'll all be surprised by the numbers he's going to get. Especially with Rex not wanting to lose his best CB.

I think Gilmore is going to get somewhere between Byron Maxwell ($10.5M/year) and Patrick Peterson ($14M/year).

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