JohnC Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 I also think there's something to be said in that KTD is saying he has ELITE arm and elite legs and elite decision making and elite leadership and.... I'm curious KTD, if pressed, do you think any of those are actually just very good or are all in the top 3-4 in the entire league? What makes Wilson such an attractive qb is that his impressive production has been done in his first three years. He made an impact with the coaching staff right from the start. Without much challenge from the other more experienced qbs on the roster he very quickly took over the reigns as the starting qb. I have never seen a qb so young play with such maturity and presence. I would prefer Rodgers and Luck over Wilson. But without a doubt Wilson has outperformed (not saying he is better) those other qbs in his first few years in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 I also think there's something to be said in that KTD is saying he has ELITE arm and elite legs and elite decision making and elite leadership and.... I'm curious KTD, if pressed, do you think any of those are actually just very good or are all in the top 3-4 in the entire league?I think he has elite legs, elite leadership, possibly elite arm (that's impossible to gauge, especially when you got guys who have super strong arms and no accuracy), and very good decision making. That one is also very hard to say who is the best, top 3, top 5, top 7, etc. Part of the reason I think he is elite is the lack of weaknesses as much as the level of strengths and cannot be underestimated. He's a unique player and unique talent because of his running. Most running QBs cannot also throw very well. But it's a tremendous advantage in a game. Another thing he does elite and extremely valuable is make great 7 yard plays on 3rd and 6 like Big Ben does, which is an extremely important element of his game and isn't found in stats. A while back I tried to think of every single thing you want in a QB, which was over 20 different things and he is very good to great at all of them, something only Rodgers and Luck come close to matching (like, for instance, Manning and Brady cannot scramble and run, although they both use their feet great to avoid the rush). To look at it another way, Russell Wilson has about 100 yards less rushing in his last three years than Mark Ingram does in his last three and averages as much per season as Ingram does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 I've earlier said he'd be worth that pay for a team like ours. At this point I'm waxing on if he makes Cleveland or Jacksonville an instant SB contender like I think an ELITE qb does for a franchise. Who's to say he couldn't succeed with those teams, since his mobility would offset their poor OL play and mediocre wideouts. He'd certainly be better equiped than Brady or Flacco or Big Ben in similar situations. Besides, no 'elite' QB is going to win with an average-to-bad defense or run of the mill coaching. Putting Manning or Rogers on either team wouldn't get you to the SB either, IMO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 If he is so great, why doesn't he carry the offense more in the passing? Why don't the Seahawks throw more? There 454 passing attempts were last in the NFL. The Seahawks finished 27th in passing yards and 22nd in passing TDs. I know those are just stats but none of those come close to the "great" QBs. Probably because they were ahead in most games and didn't need to throw. Passing isn't an end in inself. It's still higher risk than running. And with the Hawk's running game, why not be the modern version of the the great Packers and Dolphins teams where Starr and Griese didn't tear up the league through the air either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Who's to say he couldn't succeed with those teams, since his mobility would offset their poor OL play and mediocre wideouts. He'd certainly be better equiped than Brady or Flacco or Big Ben in similar situations. Besides, no 'elite' QB is going to win with an average-to-bad defense or run of the mill coaching. Putting Manning or Rogers on either team wouldn't get you to the SB either, IMO.... I didn't say he couldn't. Just that he's never shown he could carry a franchise like some of the others have. Brady has had so-so rosters contend on the highest levels. Could Wilson? Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 I didn't say he couldn't. Just that he's never shown he could carry a franchise like some of the others have. Brady has had so-so rosters contend on the highest levels. Could Wilson? Maybe. Exactly it is a projection. The same as can he go out there and really pick a team apart. Maybe he can, but it is a projection. I do think some of this comes down to what people think "elite" means. How many "elite" guys are there in the league at this point? Bandit puts it at 2 maybe 3.... I'd go 3 maybe 4 depending on whether it was really injury at the end of last season with Peyton or whether he has truly hit the wall - his play until about week 10 of last season in the previous 2 and a half years in Denver had certainly been "elite". Now whilst I don't think "eliteness" is a pure numbers game (i.e. elite doesn't mean "top 5") it is not that arbitrary but it does become a numbers game the wider you start to stretch it... because out of 32 once you get 6 or 7 in that "elite" bracket and you are around 20% I'd say that isn't an elite in the normal understanding of the word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 (edited) I certainly watched the game. I also saw him not complete a pass until 5 minutes left in the 1st half. If you watched that game you would know that it was a game chock full of 3 and outs sprinkled with blown coverage on a drive or two. You couldn't be more wrong or sound more ridiculous. It's a shame. You missed a great SB game. All these does is prove that I could replace Wilson with Newton and their winning % improves. The Rodgers' stats are completely flawed by the way. Wilson is a good qb who plays on a great team. Better than their winning percentage already is?? And with....Cam Newton?? LOLOL. Come on, Wilosn wears socks that are more intelligent than Cam Newton. No chance they win more games with Newton. I've earlier said he'd be worth that pay for a team like ours. At this point I'm waxing on if he makes Cleveland or Jacksonville an instant SB contender like I think an ELITE qb does for a franchise. Aaron Rodgers does not make Cleveland or Jags a SB contender. No way. Not for nothing, but Rodgers has made one SB with a better team than either Browns or Jags. I think he has elite legs, elite leadership, possibly elite arm (that's impossible to gauge, especially when you got guys who have super strong arms and no accuracy), and very good decision making. That one is also very hard to say who is the best, top 3, top 5, top 7, etc. Part of the reason I think he is elite is the lack of weaknesses as much as the level of strengths and cannot be underestimated. He's a unique player and unique talent because of his running. Most running QBs cannot also throw very well. But it's a tremendous advantage in a game. Another thing he does elite and extremely valuable is make great 7 yard plays on 3rd and 6 like Big Ben does, which is an extremely important element of his game and isn't found in stats. A while back I tried to think of every single thing you want in a QB, which was over 20 different things and he is very good to great at all of them, something only Rodgers and Luck come close to matching (like, for instance, Manning and Brady cannot scramble and run, although they both use their feet great to avoid the rush). To look at it another way, Russell Wilson has about 100 yards less rushing in his last three years than Mark Ingram does in his last three and averages as much per season as Ingram does. Damn!....I could not have said it better. Edited July 5, 2015 by Mr. WEO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 I didn't say he couldn't. Just that he's never shown he could carry a franchise like some of the others have. Brady has had so-so rosters contend on the highest levels. Could Wilson? Maybe. That's the problem with the NFL salary structure. Older guys who've 'done it' get paid, even if they're on the downward arc of their career and are unlikely to earn their current contract (Manning, Brees, possibly Big Ben). Guys like Wilson who have 'only' one ring have to prove it again, even though he was a play away from having a second ring. Makes me think of grumpy old guys yelling 'get off the damn grass, you kids...' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 That's the problem with the NFL salary structure. Older guys who've 'done it' get paid, even if they're on the downward arc of their career and are unlikely to earn their current contract (Manning, Brees, possibly Big Ben). Guys like Wilson who have 'only' one ring have to prove it again, even though he was a play away from having a second ring. Makes me think of grumpy old guys yelling 'get off the damn grass, you kids...' I'd be amazed if Big Ben doesn't earn his contract. It was very reasonable in the current market and he is coming off his best season last year. I'd also argue Manning earned the huge deal from Denver the first two years... when he didn't earn it last year he took a pay cut in the off-season. If you go by yearly average value (which is all you can go by when comparing the short term deals of Manning and Brady yo the long term deals of younger guys) Manning ranks just 13th and Brady 19th. Indeed, Brady is the worst paid starting Quarterback in the NFL who is not still on his rookie deal with the exception of whoever wins the jobs in Houston, Buffalo and Cleveland respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 I'd be amazed if Big Ben doesn't earn his contract. I like Rothlesberger but if he's worth $99 million in base salary over five years, then Wilson should be in the same category... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 I like Rothlesberger but if he's worth $99 million in base salary over five years, then Wilson should be in the same category... No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 No.Good reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 I feel like we should all give some numbers as a rough check in to quantify some of these stances I think his open market price would be over 20m and end up the highest paid player right about at 20m is where I make the switch from blindly signing him, to starting to play hardball a little to try to to help the club. If he takes 19m I don't think twice. If he requests 23m I scrap for anything I can get back in my pocket to spend on supporting cast but know I'd sign him still even if. It hurts a bit. At 25m it's hard not to look at trade options to atleast see what I'm looking at. If it's a star with a couple years on his rookie deal plus some real value (say the raiders call with Mack, a 1st and either Carr or some picks as an example) it would have me thinking a bit about the pieces I could add with the 25m even if it'd be hard to pull the trigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 I feel like we should all give some numbers as a rough check in to quantify some of these stances I think his open market price would be over 20m and end up the highest paid player right about at 20m is where I make the switch from blindly signing him, to starting to play hardball a little to try to to help the club. If he takes 19m I don't think twice. If he requests 23m I scrap for anything I can get back in my pocket to spend on supporting cast but know I'd sign him still even if. It hurts a bit. At 25m it's hard not to look at trade options to atleast see what I'm looking at. If it's a star with a couple years on his rookie deal plus some real value (say the raiders call with Mack, a 1st and either Carr or some picks as an example) it would have me thinking a bit about the pieces I could add with the 25m even if it'd be hard to pull the trigger I'd say 20m seems about right and as you say, if the team can get closer to 19m they shouldn't think twice. If he wants 25m, that's where the the questioning has to begin. That 5m a year extra could be the difference in keeping an important player or signing a decent guard or very good role player. It's a gamble and the Seahawks would be betting on Wilson, that he can carry the team for a good period of time. I don't think he's proven that and I would wager that has come up in the contract talks. This process can't just be, "Well, he's the next QB to be up for a contract so he should get the biggest one now." Although, I'm fairly confident Luck will eclipse whatever Wilson gerts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 (edited) I'd say 20m seems about right and as you say, if the team can get closer to 19m they shouldn't think twice. If he wants 25m, that's where the the questioning has to begin. That 5m a year extra could be the difference in keeping an important player or signing a decent guard or very good role player. It's a gamble and the Seahawks would be betting on Wilson, that he can carry the team for a good period of time. I don't think he's proven that and I would wager that has come up in the contract talks. This process can't just be, "Well, he's the next QB to be up for a contract so he should get the biggest one now." Although, I'm fairly confident Luck will eclipse whatever Wilson gerts. I agree on the 19-20 range being a done contract, assuming reasonable guaranteed money. When he puts a number like $25M per year out there, then you have to look at what franchise tagging him would cost. For 2015 that is $18.544 and he'd get a 20% bump every year. That'd equal $22.25M in 2016, $26.7M in 2017 and $32.0M in 2018. Those four years of tags average just under $25M per year. Then it gets really crazy at $38.45M in 2019. But here's the thing - they could get him his asking price of $25M per year for 4 years just using the franchise tag. There's a lot less risk for the team that way - and a lot more for him. Edited July 6, 2015 by BarleyNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 (edited) I like Rothlesberger but if he's worth $99 million in base salary over five years, then Wilson should be in the same category... So do I... that category is $20million a year. Nobody is disputing that number - people are questioning how much higher the Seahawks should be willing to go. Edited July 6, 2015 by GunnerBill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Good reasoning. Big Ben is a significantly better QB. How's that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 (edited) I like Rothlesberger but if he's worth $99 million in base salary over five years, then Wilson should be in the same category... Big Ben is a significantly better QB. How's that? Roethlisberger is a better QB than Wilson, but Wilson is very good and the market is scarce in terms of quality QBs. If I was Seattle. I'd stick to a ceiling of about that average. One notable difference is their ages. This contract is likely it for Roethlisberger, but Wilson will be setting himself up for another. That could mean a longer deal possibly with a balloon salary in the last year to force a new deal or release/trade. That would also inflate the average yearly salary and make the agent look better. Edited July 6, 2015 by BarleyNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Big Ben is a significantly better QB. How's that? He arguably is today. And maybe tomorrow. But given the punishment he takes, what will he be like in year four of that contract when he's 37 years old or year five when he's 38? Wilson's six years younger with a lot less tread on his tires. And aside from the fact that Ben averages ten more throws per game, their stats are comparable over the past three years. Throw in Wilson's 15 game winning drives to 9 for Ben and 6-2 in playoff record to Rothlisberger's 0-2. Pay the man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Big Ben is a significantly better QB. How's that? Their career arcs are very similar to this point to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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