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How we should find a franchise QB


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How do you acquire a QB should be the question you ask and then you move forward from there.

 

1- The Draft Top 5 pick. The top of the draft is where the top QB's go. Your Andrew Luck's and Peyton Manning types get drafted here. There are also second tier good to very good QB options like Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Phillip Rivers, Cam Newton, Eli Manning (Probably the best of the bunch). Looking at the top QB's in the game its easy to feel like this is the best way to find a QB. But wiffing on these selections can set back franchises years. Currently in the league are possible busts Sam Bradford and RGIII as well as Mark Sanchez, and of course historically awful busts like Jamarcus Russell.

 

2- Picks 6-40. Later 1st round picks and early 2nd round picks. Some gems here like Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco and Ben Rothlisberger. But a lesser degree of success for guys like Andy Dalton, Jay Cutler, Colin Kapernick, Nick Foles, ect and tons of busts and probably busts like EJ, Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, Johnny Football, Tebow, Brady Quinn, Jimmy Calusen, Jake Locker, Blane Gabbert, ect. The investment level is lower as teams can rebound quicker but the level and rate of success goes down (Even Flacco and Rothlisberger were game managers for long periods of their careers).

 

3- Late in the draft. Beyond the beginning of round 2. Some gems Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Tony Romo. But those only come around once in a generation. There are tons of busts and career backups that come from the back end of the draft. Overall its not a very dependable route to go.

 

4- Free Agency. Good QB's simply don't become free agents. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning (At the back end of his career coming off of an injury) were once in a generation type things. The stars really have to align for a QB worth anything to be a free agent. Any QB's that become free agents are like reclamation projects or career backups. Very low level of success to go this route esp in finding anything more than a stop gap QB.

 

5- Trade. There are only 2 types of QB's that get traded backups or reclamation projects. Backups are risky at best they are Matt Schuab but most of the time they are Matt Cassell or Kevin Klob. Carson Palmer is probably a good example of a impactful reclamation project while Jay Cutler has been a mixed bag for the Bears.

 

Its a weird situation to be in for the Bills because trade and free agency are their best options and there doesn't appear to be a good trade option on the market nor is there anything other than a stop gap on the free agent market. In the future the Bills would be better off drafting multiple QB's in round 1 and trying to develop them with a low degree of patience.

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We certainly have to be more proactive than Buddy Nix was. However, the accusation that the Bills under value the position consistently is not entirely accurate. In the last 13 years we have spent 3 1st round picks on QBs (including the trade for Bledsoe) I am going to do some analysis on how many teams have spent more 1st rounders in that time but I bet there is not many. The problem is we paid too much for a guy on the downslope in Bledsoe, massively overrated Losman (he always looked a bust to me) and then forced ourselves into picking one in a really poor draft year for QBs.

 

My view is every year I would have on my board two Quarterbacks I want to take. Normally one would be a first or second rounder and one a later round developmental guy and I would have a line on my board regardless of where I am picking to say "if he makes it to here we try and move up to get him."

 

Now a lot of years your early round guy isn't going to last, however say last year your guy had been Bridgewater. You might have had technically a high 2nd round grade on him but your line might for example be pick 25. If he is still there at 25 you are going to make the move. I am not saying Bridgewater is the guy by the way... I just use him as an example. The one exception I then have to my rule is in a year directly after I have taken an early rounds guy. I know some think you keep drafting one high until you KNOW you have your man but I think that dedicates too many resources to the position and will leave you talent devoid elsewhere, but in those years I am still looking at having a line for my lower round guy where I will make the move.

 

Some years neither of your guys will last and you won't pick a QB but I think you would end up drafting at least one every couple of years and that increases your chances. I think what you want to avoid is saying "I must take a Quarterback - any Quarterback in X year who is the least bad.." which is where we ended up with EJ.

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Ironically, we've lost our window to find a franchise QB by having a quality roster. The good to great QBs in the league right now are almost exclusively top 10 draft picks. Yes there the draft histories are littered with busts at the top 10 but that's still where they are found. We wasted our years of being bad without finding (or even trying?) to find QBs by drafting them early in the draft. Seasons wasted on the likes of Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick. When they finally did take the plunge (EJ) it was in a historically bad QB draft class. Now our only option is to draft many in mid to late round QBs and hope we get lucky by finding the diamond in the rough. There's enough talent on the team to get by, maybe even make the wild card, with mediocre QB play, but it's unlikely we'd ever be true contenders without a QB that is at least capable of raising his play to elite levels at times.

Edited by earthtobrint
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You guys do realize that the answer might be.......you play EJ Manuel

 

I know a lot of people are not going to like that answer.

 

Two things in my opinion

 

- EJ Manuel should not have started as soon as he did.......they should have done a MUCH better job finding a veteran QB to placehold this team because EJ was NOT ready....they should have eased him in.

 

- EJ got some of that last year when Orton took over the team

 

- If EJ does not show considerable improvement in the offseason they should continue this.....bring in a Hoyer/Moore/other veteran type and keep EJ holding the clipboard....make him EARN the spot.

 

And then if he doesnt.....you have the 1st round pick back the following year.

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You guys do realize that the answer might be.......you play EJ Manuel

 

I know a lot of people are not going to like that answer.

 

Two things in my opinion

 

- EJ Manuel should not have started as soon as he did.......they should have done a MUCH better job finding a veteran QB to placehold this team because EJ was NOT ready....they should have eased him in.

 

- EJ got some of that last year when Orton took over the team

 

- If EJ does not show considerable improvement in the offseason they should continue this.....bring in a Hoyer/Moore/other veteran type and keep EJ holding the clipboard....make him EARN the spot.

 

And then if he doesnt.....you have the 1st round pick back the following year.

If we wait 2 more years for EJ, I may actually stop watching.

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Twins and weird science style, the foot speed of Michael Vick, arm of Jeff George, ability to play through pain of Brett Favre, accuracy of Drew brees, height and mental mentality of Peyton Manning...but he looks like and sounds like sloth (goonies)

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