YoloinOhio Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What else would it be? .. Leroi knew about the Rex/roman stuff before it was reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLFan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think Joe B. hit the nail on the head concerning EJ during this mornings conversation on WGR... The problem with EJ dating back to his time at FSU has been accuracy...But not necessarily accuracy that can be tracked fairly by completion percentage...It's more ball-placement...The ball being too low, too high, behind the receiver, etc...I sincerely challenge any Bills fan to go back and watch film on EJ in most games and concentrate on the amount of throws he misses to open receivers...Some of these passes even end up as completions...But the ball is so low, or so far behind, or so high, the receiver has no opportunity to continue the play for additional yardage...And in the NFL an open receiver is sometimes a very, very small window...EJ struggles mightily in this area...And I'm not so sure this is a coach-able thing...I'm not saying I know...I'm just uncertain... IMHO...Those who claim EJ struggles reading Defenses are ill informed...Or at the very least they are not grasping the whole story...He's a young QB...He's not perfect reading Defenses, don't get me wrong...What young QB is? But through this early stage of his career had EJ simply hit the open receivers in stride 65% of the time he would be a top 15 QB in the NFL easily...Probably top 10...This is an area where a QB like Russell Wilson pulls ahead of the pack despite somewhat average passing stats...He's a career 63% passer, which is average (tied for 18th in 2014)...He's only completed 57% of his passes this postseason...Is anyone claiming Russell Wilson is struggling reading Defenses this postseason? I did not think so...But pay close attention to ball placement, especially on mid-longer range passes...He's got deadly ball placement...Especially when he gets a receiver running open...And that turns into points and big plays...Something that has been lacking in EJ's game for a while now... Now before anyone jumps on the Wilson thing I do realize he's amazing on his feet as well and extends plays as good as any QB not named Rogers or Big Ben...But IMHO without his ability to hit receivers in stride he would not make it in the NFL...At least he would not be anywhere near as effective... So as far as I'm concerned EJ either improves his ball placement or he's done...It keeps the chains moving and turns into big plays...Especially when you have a WR like Sammy on the other end...Plain and simple... Great analysis of the situation. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Maybe I'm just a fanboy, but I just don't see the Bills releasing EJ. In fact, I think he'll be in the starting QB competition, and I have faith he'll win it. Unless some blockbuster happens, there's no one available that is clearly better, and EJ has a ceiling he hasn't even touched yet being only 14 games into his professional career. I'll be drinking my Kool-Aid over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think Joe B. hit the nail on the head concerning EJ during this mornings conversation on WGR... The problem with EJ dating back to his time at FSU has been accuracy...But not necessarily accuracy that can be tracked fairly by completion percentage...It's more ball-placement...The ball being too low, too high, behind the receiver, etc...I sincerely challenge any Bills fan to go back and watch film on EJ in most games and concentrate on the amount of throws he misses to open receivers...Some of these passes even end up as completions...But the ball is so low, or so far behind, or so high, the receiver has no opportunity to continue the play for additional yardage...And in the NFL an open receiver is sometimes a very, very small window...EJ struggles mightily in this area...And I'm not so sure this is a coach-able thing...I'm not saying I know...I'm just uncertain... IMHO...Those who claim EJ struggles reading Defenses are ill informed...Or at the very least they are not grasping the whole story...He's a young QB...He's not perfect reading Defenses, don't get me wrong...What young QB is? But through this early stage of his career had EJ simply hit the open receivers in stride 65% of the time he would be a top 15 QB in the NFL easily...Probably top 10...This is an area where a QB like Russell Wilson pulls ahead of the pack despite somewhat average passing stats...He's a career 63% passer, which is average (tied for 18th in 2014)...He's only completed 57% of his passes this postseason...Is anyone claiming Russell Wilson is struggling reading Defenses this postseason? I did not think so...But pay close attention to ball placement, especially on mid-longer range passes...He's got deadly ball placement...Especially when he gets a receiver running open...And that turns into points and big plays...Something that has been lacking in EJ's game for a while now... Now before anyone jumps on the Wilson thing I do realize he's amazing on his feet as well and extends plays as good as any QB not named Rogers or Big Ben...But IMHO without his ability to hit receivers in stride he would not make it in the NFL...At least he would not be anywhere near as effective... So as far as I'm concerned EJ either improves his ball placement or he's done...It keeps the chains moving and turns into big plays...Especially when you have a WR like Sammy on the other end...Plain and simple... This...absolutely this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I still think it's crazy that we had a rookie OC (a young one at that) and no QB coach his first season. Blows my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Certainly. Drew Stanton http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/10487/drew-stanton Mark Sanchez http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/12482/mark-sanchez Colt McCoy http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/13199/colt-mccoy Kirk Cousins http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/14880/kirk-cousins Austin Davis http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/15187/austin-davis Mike Glennon http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/15837/mike-glennon Ryan Fitzpatrick (he was technically the starter, but he's a career back-up) http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/8664/ryan-fitzpatrick Charlie Whitehurst http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/9667/charlie-whitehurst Kyle Orton http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/8520/kyle-orton Now, you can look at one or two of these guys and see that EJ has one less fumble, but they almost all beat him in passer rating (Stanton is the only exception), and I believe that they all beat him in Total QBR (not that I'm a firm believer in that stat). And they all beat him in YPA, perhaps the single best indicator of QB success. First off FireChan, thanks for responding straight up - good stuff. Bottom line up front. I exclude Fitzpatrick and Orton, because Fitzpatrick wasn't technically the starter, he WAS the starter; it also seems clear Orton was signed with the intention of starting him as soon as he got some grasp on the playbook and Manuel stumbled. That leaves us with 7 names. There are 32 teams in the league. Manuel is on one of those teams. That means there are at least 24 teams where either you don't think the backup is better than Manuel, or we don't have enough info to know. I would argue that simple fact of math alone would say that EJ has value as a QB, at least as a backup. Now as to the actual facts, here's a tabulation of how these QB have historically performed over their career. Let's just look at numbers, because frankly I think arguments can be made against total QBR and rating. Austin Davis intrigues me - as a UDFA, he came in and did very well, but also he's got the most limited sample size and it's not uncommon for a QB to "regress" as opponents get more film on him. For the rest...do you really want to argue that Glennon's 6.5 YPA is superior to Manuel's 6.4 YPA, or that his 58.8% completions are superior to Manuel's 58.6%? Or that Whitehurst's 55.6% completions and 6.3 YPA are clearly superior? For that matter, while I think both Davis and Cousins had superior YPA, I'm not sure that statistically, 6.4 and 6.7 YPA are really different numbers - there are so many variables that go into them aside from the QB's level of skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Bills GM: EJ Manuel knows he needs to 'step up' http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000461950/article/bills-gm-ej-manuel-knows-he-needs-to-step-up?campaign=Twitter_atn_sessler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billykaykay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Leroi knew about the Rex/roman stuff before it was reported. Wow. Leroi knew (or guessed correctly). Everyone seems to treat this guy as if he is really an insider. I predict that EJ will not be cut. So, if he isn't cut, does that make me & others with the same prediction, revered insiders. Leroi doesn't know squat what is going on behind the scenes. I trust Kirby's knowledge more than Leroi's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wow. Leroi knew (or guessed correctly). Everyone seems to treat this guy as if he is really an insider. I predict that EJ will not be cut. So, if he isn't cut, does that make me & others with the same prediction, revered insiders. Leroi doesn't know squat what is going on behind the scenes. I trust Kirby's knowledge more than Leroi's. which was why I simply asked if it was really just his opinion. Where is the issue here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wow. Leroi knew (or guessed correctly). Everyone seems to treat this guy as if he is really an insider. I predict that EJ will not be cut. So, if he isn't cut, does that make me & others with the same prediction, revered insiders. Leroi doesn't know squat what is going on behind the scenes. I trust Kirby's knowledge more than Leroi's. How are you certain that Leroi is not an insider and doesn't know what is going on behind the scenes? Be specific in your conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 @TheBillsMafia: NEW by @jaytdehart -How Can Greg Roman Help #Bills QB EJ Manuel? http://t.co/QZLWpF9oGPhttp://t.co/W6QuRT4FBt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 (edited) @TheBillsMafia: NEW by @jaytdehart -How Can Greg Roman Help #Bills QB EJ Manuel? http://t.co/QZLWpF9oGPhttp://t.co/W6QuRT4FBt not meaning to be rude but that is obvious. His performing well should shut up the haters (I know it will never happen) and if not, then I can honestly say w/o a doubt that EJ wasn't good enough While the Bills still have to look for alternative options at the quarterback position, if only for competition and depth purposes, it appears Manuel well enter the 2015 season with a clean slate and a chance to show why he should be the starter. IMO he's the starter until someone outperforms him Wow. Leroi knew (or guessed correctly). Everyone seems to treat this guy as if he is really an insider. I predict that EJ will not be cut. So, if he isn't cut, does that make me & others with the same prediction, revered insiders. Leroi doesn't know squat what is going on behind the scenes. I trust Kirby's knowledge more than Leroi's. because Orton sucked and was a proven .500 QB for 10+ years EJ has 14 games under his belt. Edited January 22, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 First off FireChan, thanks for responding straight up - good stuff. Bottom line up front. I exclude Fitzpatrick and Orton, because Fitzpatrick wasn't technically the starter, he WAS the starter; it also seems clear Orton was signed with the intention of starting him as soon as he got some grasp on the playbook and Manuel stumbled. That leaves us with 7 names. There are 32 teams in the league. Manuel is on one of those teams. That means there are at least 24 teams where either you don't think the backup is better than Manuel, or we don't have enough info to know. I would argue that simple fact of math alone would say that EJ has value as a QB, at least as a backup. Now as to the actual facts, here's a tabulation of how these QB have historically performed over their career. Let's just look at numbers, because frankly I think arguments can be made against total QBR and rating. Austin Davis intrigues me - as a UDFA, he came in and did very well, but also he's got the most limited sample size and it's not uncommon for a QB to "regress" as opponents get more film on him. For the rest...do you really want to argue that Glennon's 6.5 YPA is superior to Manuel's 6.4 YPA, or that his 58.8% completions are superior to Manuel's 58.6%? Or that Whitehurst's 55.6% completions and 6.3 YPA are clearly superior? For that matter, while I think both Davis and Cousins had superior YPA, I'm not sure that statistically, 6.4 and 6.7 YPA are really different numbers - there are so many variables that go into them aside from the QB's level of skill. QbBackup.GIF Bottom line up front. I exclude Fitzpatrick and Orton, because Fitzpatrick wasn't technically the starter, he WAS the starter; it also seems clear Orton was signed with the intention of starting him as soon as he got some grasp on the playbook and Manuel stumbled. Those are fair arguments to make. However, both Orton and Fitzpatrick were back-ups the season before. I would contend that both of them are high-end back up players and are germane to this discussion. That leaves us with 7 names. There are 32 teams in the league. Manuel is on one of those teams. That means there are at least 24 teams where either you don't think the backup is better than Manuel, or we don't have enough info to know. I would argue that simple fact of math alone would say that EJ has value as a QB, at least as a backup. Those are merely the players the actually saw starting time. Only the individual teams' FOs knows if guys like Brock Osweiler are serviceable back-ups. But you have muddied my point. I'm not arguing that EJ has zero value as a back-up or even that he cannot become a good back-up, only that he may not even be there yet as a quality back-up, looking at how some of the other back-ups have performed. Suffice it to say, if I had the choice of any of those guys on my list over EJ as my back-up QB, I'd take them. And even some of those who were not on my list, like Matt Moore. IMO, EJ is not on this team because of what he has been doing, but what he could be doing if he grew to realize his potential. Now as to the actual facts, here's a tabulation of how these QB have historically performed over their career. Let's just look at numbers, because frankly I think arguments can be made against total QBR and rating. Austin Davis intrigues me - as a UDFA, he came in and did very well, but also he's got the most limited sample size and it's not uncommon for a QB to "regress" as opponents get more film on him. For the rest...do you really want to argue that Glennon's 6.5 YPA is superior to Manuel's 6.4 YPA, or that his 58.8% completions are superior to Manuel's 58.6%? Or that Whitehurst's 55.6% completions and 6.3 YPA are clearly superior? For that matter, while I think both Davis and Cousins had superior YPA, I'm not sure that statistically, 6.4 and 6.7 YPA are really different numbers - there are so many variables that go into them aside from the QB's level of skill. The same argument against Austin Davis could be made against EJ and 2014 was simply the start of his regression. I don't think going by careers paints the whole story. Charlie Whitehurst is 7 years removed from when he started, how much of his game is the same as his first year or two? Glennon has shown to have gotten better since last year, while EJ has gotten worse. I tend to favor the most recent years as more relevant than entire careers. I would also disagree with the insignificance of the YPA stat. The difference in .1 of the YPA stat could be one more 80 yard TD pass a season. I will show you an example using EJ's numbers as a baseline. He has 14 games, so it will be a little bit of an overestimation, but I think you'll agree it's close enough. He has 437 career attempts for 2,810 yards for 6.43 YPA. If we add 1 attempt for 80 yards, he gets 438 attempts for 2890 yards, which results in a 6.598 YPA. That's almost a .2 increase for one more big play. How many years do we see, "we could've made the playoffs with 1 or 2 more plays?" Almost every year. I wouldn't discount it as insignificant, an improvement is an improvement and the more big plays, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negativo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Geno is a risk taker. EJ is risk averse. This was the case in college, and it's still the case in the pros. Not sure any amount of nurture can change that nature. Geno may develop better risk management skills via gameday learning experience, and there are signs that's starting to happen. If so, he has a very big upside. If not, he's capable of apocalyptic destruction. Next year will be the make or break for him. Meanwhile, EJ needs to loosen up the risk controls. He plays with fear, and the only way that fear will dissipate is if he isn't worried about the consequences of making a mistake. This is where a loyal coach like Rex could be a big help. If Manuel believes he can suck deflated balls and his coach will still have his back it could relax his game. No guarantees on that, but a season of rope to either hang or prove himself probably should be extended in 2015. He needs to dance like nobody's watching to have a chance at making boom out of bust. I'd still put my money on EJ hanging himself, but I'm a terrible gambler so who knows. Gotta give him a punchers chance given the high investment we made, and the dearth of top quality options in free agency or the draft. I just think it's harder to embolden the timid than reign in the reckless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Geno is a risk taker. EJ is risk averse. This was the case in college, and it's still the case in the pros. Not sure any amount of nurture can change that nature. Geno may develop better risk management skills via gameday learning experience, and there are signs that's starting to happen. If so, he has a very big upside. If not, he's capable of apocalyptic destruction. Next year will be the make or break for him. Meanwhile, EJ needs to loosen up the risk controls. He plays with fear, and the only way that fear will dissipate is if he isn't worried about the consequences of making a mistake. This is where a loyal coach like Rex could be a big help. If Manuel believes he can suck deflated balls and his coach will still have his back it could relax his game. No guarantees on that, but a season of rope to either hang or prove himself probably should be extended in 2015. He needs to dance like nobody's watching to have a chance at making boom out of bust. I'd still put my money on EJ hanging himself, but I'm a terrible gambler so who knows. Gotta give him a punchers chance given the high investment we made, and the dearth of top quality options in free agency or the draft. I just think it's harder to embolden the timid than reign in the reckless. Geno wasn't a risk taker in college... He would throw a screen to Austin and let him get the yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 (edited) Geno is a risk taker. EJ is risk averse. This was the case in college, and it's still the case in the pros. Not sure any amount of nurture can change that nature. Geno may develop better risk management skills via gameday learning experience, and there are signs that's starting to happen. If so, he has a very big upside. If not, he's capable of apocalyptic destruction. Next year will be the make or break for him. Meanwhile, EJ needs to loosen up the risk controls. He plays with fear, and the only way that fear will dissipate is if he isn't worried about the consequences of making a mistake. This is where a loyal coach like Rex could be a big help. If Manuel believes he can suck deflated balls and his coach will still have his back it could relax his game. No guarantees on that, but a season of rope to either hang or prove himself probably should be extended in 2015. He needs to dance like nobody's watching to have a chance at making boom out of bust. I'd still put my money on EJ hanging himself, but I'm a terrible gambler so who knows. Gotta give him a punchers chance given the high investment we made, and the dearth of top quality options in free agency or the draft. I just think it's harder to embolden the timid than reign in the reckless. That's what alcohol is for. Honestly though, like others have said before, when you see EJ run the offense in a 2 minute drill he looks like a completely different player. I feel like the timid nature that we saw in him during games was risk aversion coached into him. He started off strong when he started in 2013 and slowly regressed. Not necessarily in his playing ability but the plays themselves. He was taking more chances early on and slowly developed to always looking for the check down. The same could actually be said about Orton. He came in slinging the ball around and slowly started looking for 2-3 yard dump offs (although Orton was only playing to get another check then retire so he probably didn't care that much). I really hope it was the coaching and not the player so we can actually get a fair assessment of what EJ can do but only time will tell. Edited January 22, 2015 by The Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negativo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That's what alcohol is for. So, what you're saying is EJ needs to be pregaming before the games. I think you may be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 So, what you're saying is EJ needs to be pregaming before the games. I think you may be on to something. If you've ever been in a hockey beer league, you would know how well it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truth on hold Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Maybe I'm just a fanboy, but I just don't see the Bills releasing EJ. In fact, I think he'll be in the starting QB competition, and I have faith he'll win it. Unless some blockbuster happens, there's no one available that is clearly better, and EJ has a ceiling he hasn't even touched yet being only 14 games into his professional career. I'll be drinking my Kool-Aid over here. And Any qb we have a chance at drafting will be an even bigger project than EJ, especially now that he's had 2 years in nfl. So what's ythe point? Will set us back that much further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks same to me How can anyone watch these highlights and say EJs can't be a starting QB in the NFL? How can anyone say he's not accurate? How can Joe B say he can't hit receivers in stride or throw to the right place? In these highlights he reminds me of Steve McNair. He really put a beating on the Jets. Maybe Rex seen the same potential in EJ some of us have and will unleash it this season with an established OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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