BarleyNY Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 flip a coin 4 times and the odds are 1-16 that's heads 4 times in a row, or 6.25%- so at 2% you are giving us slightly less then 50% chance each game which is fair. Unlike the cynics, who give us 0% Nice, factual analysis. I'd add one important factor - this Sunday's game could make the week 17 game quite a bit easier. Denver and New England are almost certainly going to get byes, but NE has the head to head tiebreaker for home field advantage. If the Bills give Denver a loss this Sunday then there is a much, much greater chance that NE will be resting starters on week 17. The Bills have the opportunity to put themselves into position for that game to be meaningful. The odds are still long, but maybe not quite as long as they appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Buffalo Joe Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Nice, factual analysis. I'd add one important factor - this Sunday's game could make the week 17 game quite a bit easier. Denver and New England are almost certainly going to get byes, but NE has the head to head tiebreaker for home field advantage. If the Bills give Denver a loss this Sunday then there is a much, much greater chance that NE will be resting starters on week 17. The Bills have the opportunity to put themselves into position for that game to be meaningful. The odds are still long, but maybe not quite as long as they appear. Belicheat never rests his starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemac2001 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Here's an idea for fans--the Bills are already doing this: How about we focus on going 1-0 on Sunday? Well, since (presumably) none of the contributors to this thread will be suiting up in Denver on Sunday afternoon, who cares if some are "looking ahead"? Will the fans' lack of "focus" somehow be transferred to the team on the field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 flip a coin 4 times and the odds are 1-16 that's heads 4 times in a row, or 6.25%- so at 2% you are giving us slightly less then 50% chance each game which is fair. Unlike the cynics, who give us 0% haha. nice. Unfortunately for us, a coin has evenly distributed weight rendering such odds relevant. Football games that lean towards one end in terms of talent (Denver, GB, & NE) make such comparisons pointless. The chances of us going 4-0 based on the teams we're facing is somewhere between 0% and 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Belicheat never rests his starters. Crap. That's right. The team concept that no one player is more important than another. Good catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 LoL!! true story... I met two dudes at BWW, week one, who are Bills fans. Odds in Tulsa, OK - 1 in 1000. Became friends and found five other folks who are Bills fans and who actually started up a Bills Backer club. Odds in Tulsa, OK - 1 in 1000000. One dude is ex army with a hot little Thai wife, trying to hook me up with her even hotter (yet older) friend three weeks ago.....odds - 100% I hit that ass!!!!! She hardly speaks english, otherwise I would have already asked this lady to marry me. Her food is horrible, but daaaaaamn!!!! hahaha. So, I'm telling you, we have a chance!!! WIN SAMMICH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homey D. Clown Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I feel I'm being a negative nancy in yet another thread this morning, but there is a 0% chance of going 4-0, a 0% chance of going 3-1, a 2% chance of going 2-2, (beating green Bay and Oakland) a 50% chance of going 0-4, (carr has yet another miraculous game) and a 90% chance of going 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html Buffalo in a tie improves their chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QB Bills Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I feel I'm being a negative nancy in yet another thread this morning, but there is a 0% chance of going 4-0, a 0% chance of going 3-1, a 2% chance of going 2-2, (beating green Bay and Oakland) a 50% chance of going 0-4, (carr has yet another miraculous game) and a 90% chance of going 1-3. I'm 142% sure that this math is wonky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homey D. Clown Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm 142% sure that this math is wonky. 75% of the time it works every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clippers of Nfl Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I feel I'm being a negative nancy in yet another thread this morning, but there is a 0% chance of going 4-0, I AGREE a 0% chance of going 3-1, DONT AGREE a 2% chance of going 2-2, (beating green Bay and Oakland) DONT AGREE a 50% chance of going 0-4, (carr has yet another miraculous game) DONT AGREE and a 90% chance of going 1-3. DONT AGREE 0% chance of going 4-0 25% chance of going 3-1 75% chance of going 2-2 0% chance of going 0-4 50% chance of going 1-3 Hope my math is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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