Mark80 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 (edited) Hopeful nailed it. YGC are the truest representation of a RB's success. His are trending down the last two years from being the best in the league in 2012 to almost half of what they were this year. How is this hard to understand? Edited October 8, 2014 by Mark80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 (edited) I'm gonna ignore the rookie year, because... rookies. ypc - yards per carry, ypr - yards per reception, ypt - yards per touch 2011: 5.2 ypc / 6.9 ypr / 5.7 ypt 2012: 6.0 ypc /10.7 ypr / 6.8 ypt 2013: 4.6 ypc / 5.6 ypr / 4.8 ypt 2014: 3.5 ypc / 8.2 ypr / 4.3 ypt He improved every year under Chan. Whether that be him learning, or Chan figuring out how to use him, or a combination of the two, that's indisputable (his rookie year was worse than 2011). As soon as Hackett takes over? He regresses majorly. To be fair, he was also injured a bit, and the line made some changes. His carries stayed about the same (202 vs 207) but the amount of receptions dropped dramatically (33 vs 43) and the types of routes changed as well. This year, Hackett has designed some throws to CJ, already, so that's improving, but we're still power running him up the gut in heavy formations it seems. I'm not really sure what the answer is there, as I'm not an expert in run block design. But the holes certainly aren't there like they were in previous years. Fred can take a small hole, hit it with power, and fall forward for a few yards. CJ, however, cannot. The run designs that Hackett implements is best suited for power running backs. CJ is clearly effective, but on the right team, in the right system. CJ had a really high yards after contact number in 2012, because the holes were so large that linemen were only getting a hand/arm on him. This year, and last, the holes are smaller, and he's getting swallowed up, or he bounces away from them. We need a better blocking scheme, or we need to change to a full scale power running attack. Edited October 8, 2014 by Dorkington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I thought I was the only one. He got better yearly with Gailey. But sharply dropped off with Hackett. Of course it's scheme but the OP makes a point I dont grasp given his data It becomes a lot more obvious when you look at # carries and YPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xsoldier54 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 He was hobbled in 2013. So far this year, we've faced some good front sevens. I think he's fine. People are quick to abandon players. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homey D. Clown Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 REALITY: CJ Spiller has had ONE good year as a pro (2012). REALITY: It took the "genius" Chan Gailey until YEAR #3 to figure out how to use HIS chosen "waterbug" running back. REALITY: CJ needs just 120 YDS from scrimmage this season to surpass the production of his ENTIRE rookie year! I know... Hackett is awful and if we JUST had the genius Chan Gailey again, Spiller would be AMAZING! I mean, he "knew how to use him!" Let's look at the stats: 2010 Year #1 of Chan and Spiller: 440 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 5 fumbles 2011 Year #2 of Chan and Spiller: 830 YDS from scrimmage, 6 TD, 2 fumbles 2012 Year #3 of Chan and Spiller: 1,703 YDS from scrimmage, 8 TD, 3 fumbles 2013 Year #1 of Hackett and Spiller: 1,118 YDS from scrimmage, 2 TD, 4 fumbles 2014 Year #2 of Hackett and Spiller: 320 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 1 fumble 2012 was a great year for CJ, and 2013 was not bad either (aside from the drop in TDs). http://www.pro-footb.../S/SpilC.00.htm *************************************************************************************************************************************** But let's not kid ourselves. As much as people want to incessantly rip on Hackett and sing Gailey's praises, the offensive numbers are not much different overall in terms of PPG, NFL ranking, etc. And Chan "had his QB" for most of his tenure here, whereas Hackett had a rotation of EJ (3 injuries), an UDFA rookie (Tuel) and Thad Lewis at QB. Most damning of all for the "oh, if only we had Chan...." people is that Chan got ONE good year out of his 1st round RB that he HAD to have, and it took him until year #3 to figure out how to use him. Hackett and Marrone have a different offense, with different responsibilities, and yet they still got the 2nd best year out of Spiller that he's ever had (better than 2/3 of Gailey's years). And that was in year #1 for them, in an offense led by a guy who is now on the bench, a guy who is now on the practice squad where he belongs, and a guy who is out of the NFL entirely. Good analysis, I think that most of the hackett hate comes from the EJ fanbase. I think Hackett is a pretty good playcaller, and with better execution now at the QB position, over time this will be more apparent. CJ has been a vicitm of situational playcalling, and it appears that defenses are immediately ready for him when he's in there. Freddie is such a dual threat that things tend to open up more for him. When Spiller is in there, defenses know to shut doan all the running lanes. I just re-watched the Detroit game last night, and when spiller was in the game, they loaded the box with as many as 8 defenders, they know he is going to get it. How to fix that? For Spiller, he needs to be a better passing weapon, and through no fault of his own, be in the game for a higher percentage of total plays, but you'd have to take away plays from Freddie, and I'll tell you right now, I don't think there's a Bills fan on the planet that wants to see less of Fred Jackson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I'm gonna ignore the rookie year, because... rookies. ypc - yards per carry, ypr - yards per reception, ypt - yards per touch 2011: 5.2 ypc / 6.9 ypr / 5.7 ypt 2012: 6.0 ypc /10.7 ypr / 6.8 ypt 2013: 4.6 ypc / 5.6 ypr / 4.8 ypt 2014: 3.5 ypc / 8.2 ypr / 4.3 ypt He improved every year under Chan. Whether that be him learning, or Chan figuring out how to use him, or a combination of the two, that's indisputable (his rookie year was worse than 2011). As soon as Hackett takes over? He regresses majorly. To be fair, he was also injured a bit, and the line made some changes. His carries stayed about the same (202 vs 207) but the amount of receptions dropped dramatically (33 vs 43) and the types of routes changed as well. This year, Hackett has designed some throws to CJ, already, so that's improving, but we're still power running him up the gut in heavy formations it seems. I'm not really sure what the answer is there, as I'm not an expert in run block design. But the holes certainly aren't there like they were in previous years. Fred can take a small hole, hit it with power, and fall forward for a few yards. CJ, however, cannot. The run designs that Hackett implements is best suited for power running backs. CJ is clearly effective, but on the right team, in the right system. CJ had a really high yards after contact number in 2012, because the holes were so large that linemen were only getting a hand/arm on him. This year, and last, the holes are smaller, and he's getting swallowed up, or he bounces away from them. We need a better blocking scheme, or we need to change to a full scale power running attack. And I think you at the end hit the issue with Hackett - what's the identity of the running game (and offense in general)? When you look at our personnel and play calling what's the story it tells? From the read options without an option to the explosive down field threats without reliable blockers to let plays develop.and spiller is a shifty back running hb dives behind our worst blockers instead of being a guy you can use to force mismatches and put pressure on a defense.... its a bit cliche but other than fast, what is the bills offensive identity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowery4 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 (edited) And I think you at the end hit the issue with Hackett - what's the identity of the running game (and offense in general)? When you look at our personnel and play calling what's the story it tells? From the read options without an option to the explosive down field threats without reliable blockers to let plays develop.and spiller is a shifty back running hb dives behind our worst blockers instead of being a guy you can use to force mismatches and put pressure on a defense.... its a bit cliche but other than fast, what is the bills offensive identity? That would be a good thread! At the moment, I think they are a fast passing team. It is an interesting contradiction from what they said they wanted. But has had some success against teams we beat. More contradictions I vote for the myth that tackles can play guard (thank you Buddy Nix for starting that one) and everyone has to be a giant. What do people think of big slow guys zone blocking? The last two weeks teams have schemed specifically (with stunts and delays) to attack this weakness. Edited October 8, 2014 by bowery4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 In the last 6 games of the 2011 season When Spiller became the full time starter: 86 rushes for 446 yards (5.2 ypc), 3 tds, 24 catches for 187 yards, and 2 tds. That's a per game average of 105.5 yards. http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/13203/year/2011/cj-spiller Add that to the 2012 season, Spiller had a 22 game stretch of 293 rushes for 1690 rushing yards (5.77 ypc), 9 tds, and 67 catches for 646 yards (9.6 ypc), 5 tds. That puts his per game yards per scrimmage for that 22 game stretch at 106 yards/ game. For a 16 game season, that would average out to a 1696 yards. All while sharing a lot of time with a very good rb in Fred Jackson. In 2012, Syracuse's offense was 56th out of 124. Not bad but slightly above average. http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/syracuse/2012.html Spiller has proven a lot more to me at the NFL level than Nate Hackett. Spiller was peaking with Gailey, a veteran playcaller. I have little doubt he would flourish for a Sean Payton or Chip Kelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Schick Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 And I think you at the end hit the issue with Hackett - what's the identity of the running game (and offense in general)? When you look at our personnel and play calling what's the story it tells? From the read options without an option to the explosive down field threats without reliable blockers to let plays develop.and spiller is a shifty back running hb dives behind our worst blockers instead of being a guy you can use to force mismatches and put pressure on a defense.... its a bit cliche but other than fast, what is the bills offensive identity? I've been asking the same question all year..... For once we seem to have a number of strengths on offense. but I just haven't seen its identity come to the surface. Just the simple "what are some things we do best?" question, and then going out and doing those things most of the time. Particularly with EJ's development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I've been asking the same question all year..... For once we seem to have a number of strengths on offense. but I just haven't seen its identity come to the surface. Just the simple "what are some things we do best?" question, and then going out and doing those things most of the time. Particularly with EJ's development. And that's my concerns as well. You draft a QB in the 1st round but you can't develop him. A rb who looked like one of the most explosive weapons in the NFL is struggling to get going. Our offensive line is much worse. At what point, do you start to think it's the offensive coaches? Our two defenses have been great under Marrone. But our offense has not gotten the most out of the talent IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 (edited) And I think you at the end hit the issue with Hackett - what's the identity of the running game (and offense in general)? When you look at our personnel and play calling what's the story it tells? From the read options without an option to the explosive down field threats without reliable blockers to let plays develop.and spiller is a shifty back running hb dives behind our worst blockers instead of being a guy you can use to force mismatches and put pressure on a defense.... its a bit cliche but other than fast, what is the bills offensive identity? Boy is that a loaded question. In the end, we have some good players, we just need to figure out how to use them. If Hackett wants to maintain this "power run" style (or whatever it's called), then we clearly need to move away from CJ. But it'd be a shame, because from 2011-2012, we saw what CJ is truly capable of in the right scheme. Edited October 8, 2014 by Dorkington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 (edited) Boy is that a loaded question. In the end, we have some good players, we just need to figure out how to use them. If Hackett wants to maintain this "power run" style (or whatever it's called), then we clearly need to move away from CJ. But it'd be a shame, because from 2011-2012, we saw what CJ is truly capable of in the right scheme. whats frustrating is for good units, its not that hard an answer. you can normally cut it down to 2-3 sentences and get a pretty good feel for what a teams goals are and how they execute them. Chan gailey identified that we werent very quick outside, didnt have great blocking and our qb couldnt go deep - so he spread the field horizontally instead of vertically to create space and quick releases and found a weapon in spiller that could exploit the lanes created (and jackson). it was clearly compensating for a large lack of talent, which made it hard to sustain long term and consistently --- but it had a goal/plan/purpose and found a way match talent to that design and maximize results. the read option, if it had actual options (EJ, sammy used like harvin, some play action passes etc...), would have been a good example of utilizing our speed all over and mobile qb in order to create misdirection and mismatches where a false step would create large chunk gains, while still preserving a run game that could keep our offense "on schedule" and not putting tooo much pressure on the line or qb for a downfield passing game to create as many of those chunks. like seattle, but a little less powerful and instead a bit faster. picture the defense moving left to right tracking CJ, then having to go the other way to keep up with sammy while a goodwin runs vertical -- its pretty tough to flow with all those directions AND keep up with 3 of the fastest guys in the league without losing a step on any of them. Edited October 8, 2014 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 REALITY: CJ Spiller has had ONE good year as a pro (2012). REALITY: It took the "genius" Chan Gailey until YEAR #3 to figure out how to use HIS chosen "waterbug" running back. REALITY: CJ needs just 120 YDS from scrimmage this season to surpass the production of his ENTIRE rookie year! I know... Hackett is awful and if we JUST had the genius Chan Gailey again, Spiller would be AMAZING! I mean, he "knew how to use him!" Let's look at the stats: 2010 Year #1 of Chan and Spiller: 440 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 5 fumbles 2011 Year #2 of Chan and Spiller: 830 YDS from scrimmage, 6 TD, 2 fumbles 2012 Year #3 of Chan and Spiller: 1,703 YDS from scrimmage, 8 TD, 3 fumbles 2013 Year #1 of Hackett and Spiller: 1,118 YDS from scrimmage, 2 TD, 4 fumbles 2014 Year #2 of Hackett and Spiller: 320 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 1 fumble 2012 was a great year for CJ, and 2013 was not bad either (aside from the drop in TDs). http://www.pro-footb.../S/SpilC.00.htm *************************************************************************************************************************************** But let's not kid ourselves. As much as people want to incessantly rip on Hackett and sing Gailey's praises, the offensive numbers are not much different overall in terms of PPG, NFL ranking, etc. And Chan "had his QB" for most of his tenure here, whereas Hackett had a rotation of EJ (3 injuries), an UDFA rookie (Tuel) and Thad Lewis at QB. Most damning of all for the "oh, if only we had Chan...." people is that Chan got ONE good year out of his 1st round RB that he HAD to have, and it took him until year #3 to figure out how to use him. Hackett and Marrone have a different offense, with different responsibilities, and yet they still got the 2nd best year out of Spiller that he's ever had (better than 2/3 of Gailey's years). And that was in year #1 for them, in an offense led by a guy who is now on the bench, a guy who is now on the practice squad where he belongs, and a guy who is out of the NFL entirely. It's true that it took Chan a while to learn how to use Spiller. But he did learn. Hackett has not. At least not yet. You would think he'd study the tapes and figure out the problem. The stats you cite show Spiller getting about 600 total yards offense less under Hackett (1st year) than under Gailey (last year). That's a significant drop. Worse, maybe, are the stats you leave out. Let's look at CJ's yards per carry: 2011: 5.2 2012: 6.0 2013: 4.6 2012: 3.5 In Spiller's last two years with Chan, he ran for more than 5 yards per carry! That's awesome productivity that he hasn't been able to match under Hackett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 CJ is a third down back. Don't take him OUT on third down. Put him IN on third down. Please read this Hackett, sheesh. That is all I'd agree but he can't block to save his life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I'd agree but he can't block to save his life right - if anything, fred is the prototype 3rd down back. spiller is not in the mold of reliably picking up a couple yards every touch, or blocking well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 right - if anything, fred is the prototype 3rd down back. spiller is not in the mold of reliably picking up a couple yards every touch, or blocking well. He is a guy who should be moved all over the field. Gailey used him a slot receiver. They should use him and F Jack in the backfield and force mismatches in the passing game. I'm sorry but a guy who can average 106 yards over a 22 game stretch is not the problem. This is a very uncreative offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBuff423 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I think Gailey did use Spiller in a way that helps Spiller be a focal point in the Offense, whereas Hackett / Marrone use Spiller in a bit of a more traditional RB style because that's their Offense...I think Hackett's play-calling has been suspect at times, but as the OP pointed out, there has been much QB turnover since they came to Buffalo (Marrone and Hackett). So, with Orton now at QB, no more Rookie or developing QB excuses, it will be interesting to see how this Offense does for the rest of the year (assuming Orton remains at the QB helm) and not just Spiller. To me, that's why Fred does so much better in Marrone / Hackett's Offense, is the more traditional RB in terms of how he runs, that's not a knock on anyone, just an observation. Also, Bryce Brown has shown flashes of real brilliance in both the running game and in receptions, prior to coming to Buffalo, it would seem that Spiller's days are numbered for that reason alone, not to mention the aforementioned square peg to round hole scenario....either way, let's see how this Offense does with Orton's second full week in practice taking the snaps, calling the plays and leading the Offense on game day....hopeful but cautiously so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 He is a guy who should be moved all over the field. Gailey used him a slot receiver. They should use him and F Jack in the backfield and force mismatches in the passing game. I'm sorry but a guy who can average 106 yards over a 22 game stretch is not the problem. This is a very uncreative offense. i didnt mean it as a get him off the field, just that he doesnt fit the prototype that the poster was implying very well at all. the thing is, hes talented enough that he doesnt need to be a prototype to have great value - you just have to be willing to be creative and play to his strengths. kevin faulk he is not - and thats not a bad thing, though i wouldnt complain if he was a better blocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussellDopeland Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 This thread brought to you by the Buffalo Bills! Please- enough with the propaganda. I was no fan of Gailey- and to quote Bill Belichick: "stats are for losers". The reality is that Nate Hackett is a dilettante, an amateur, who wouldn't be an OC in the league if his daddy hadn't been a coach of some renown. If my last name was Marchibroda, and Ted had been my granddad- I would be as qualified as little Nate to coordinate an NFL offense. Hackett hasn't used Spiller correctly from day one; furthermore he has yet to fully grasp how to properly configure a screen passing game. Under Gailey the Bills were arguably the best team in the NFL when it came to screens. And it's not like either Spiller, Jackson or many of the same OL-men (Wood, Glenn, Urbik, Pears) all-of-a-sudden forgot how to execute an effective screen play. And Watkins excelled on screens (slip, bubble, etc) at Clemson- but as of yet, not with the Bills. That is on little Nate. He either A) needs to put on his big-boy pants and figure things out, and FAST! or B) Marrone is going to have to take this offense over himself. Hackett is a liability- and I dare say that there are several "novice" fans on this board that could call a reasonably better game than Master Hackett- the actual novice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJDK Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 (edited) If he could block my grandmother who is coming around the end on a blitz I'm sure he'd get more opportunities on 3rd down. But since grandma just notched a sack on a whiffed blitz pick up , I'm happy the Bills continue to use Freddie. Thats a great point except our leading receiver is... Fred Jackson. When does Fred make those receptions? On third down is when fred makes most of those receptions. So I guess that means he's not really blocking then huh? He also seems to have some SPACE when he makes said receptions. CJ Spiller is FASTER than Fred.. So if I remember my ninth grade logic homework correctly Spiller might be able to make a flair pass on third and 5+ a gain of more than 2 yards. Obviously Fred is a better blocker but we aren't asking him to do much pass blocking in those situations. I do however think Fred should get the bulk of the work on first and second down Edited October 8, 2014 by SJDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts