Watkins trade revisited

[Alaska Darin]

'Fantastic' is under-selling it. Those numbers would fall into the top-5 rookie performances...of all time.

Imagine what it would look like with another 3 games with a real NFL QB at the helm...

[TXBILLSFAN]

 

 

Absolutely and for the record, I'm not trying to bash TX just pointing out that an observation like that smacks of bias. Anyone who has had the privileged to watch Sammy live (I got to spend a lot of time at camp this year) knows the way the guy explodes into routes and his physical tools make him virtually unguardable.

 

I drafted Benjamin in nearly all my fantasy leagues and have watched every one of his games -- he does not bring anywhere close to the skills that Sammy brings. Even with a broken rib and EJ at QB, Sammy was matching him stat for stat. Now that he's healthy and has a vet QB throwing the rock, Sammy is doing what he does best: putting distance between himself and the rest of the pack.

Just because I'm not picking out Sammy's bust for Canton doesn't mean I don't think he's had a very good first 8 games. Why is it all or nothing with some people ?

 

Look, I've said on numerous occasions that I've been very happy with Watkins, the player. All I said in my post is that I haven't seen him being that significantly different than Benjamin and Beckham AT THIS STAGE, 8 GAMES IN ! His production has been inconsistent and he's had a couple mental lapses that are typical of a rookies, so has Benjamin and Beckham has been hurt. Benjamin made a great catch in the Seattle game on Sunday between 2 All PROS (Thomas and Sherman), he's a good player.

 

Why does thinking another WR is good have to take something away from Watkins ? You can love Sammy's play and still respect and love Benjamin's.

 

If I had to pick one WR from that draft today, I'd pick Watkins. No doubt. But, at this stage, I'd rather Benjamin and our 1st and 4th pick next year.

 

Again, let's let sustained and consistent performance determine his value and the value of the trade.

[Kelly the Dog]

If I had to pick one WR from that draft today, I'd pick Watkins. No doubt. But, at this stage, I'd rather Benjamin and our 1st and 4th pick next year.

 

Again, let's let sustained and consistent performance determine his value and the value of the trade.

Unless you were publicly screaming relentlessly for the Bills to please draft Kelvin Benjamin with their number one pick that is a tough stance to support. Perhaps you were.

[Matt in KC]

Just because I'm not picking out Sammy's bust for Canton doesn't mean I don't think he's had a very good first 8 games. Why is it all or nothing with some people ?

 

Look, I've said on numerous occasions that I've been very happy with Watkins, the player. All I said in my post is that I haven't seen him being that significantly different than Benjamin and Beckham AT THIS STAGE, 8 GAMES IN ! His production has been inconsistent and he's had a couple mental lapses that are typical of a rookies, so has Benjamin and Beckham has been hurt. Benjamin made a great catch in the Seattle game on Sunday between 2 All PROS (Thomas and Sherman), he's a good player.

 

Why does thinking another WR is good have to take something away from Watkins ? You can love Sammy's play and still respect and love Benjamin's.

 

If I had to pick one WR from that draft today, I'd pick Watkins. No doubt. But, at this stage, I'd rather Benjamin and our 1st and 4th pick next year.

 

Again, let's let sustained and consistent performance determine his value and the value of the trade.

Exactly where my head is.

 

Unless you were publicly screaming relentlessly for the Bills to please draft Kelvin Benjamin with their number one pick that is a tough stance to support. Perhaps you were.

Why? If I had to decide today, I'd choose Benjamin and the picks. I wasn't screaming for Benjamin at any time; I just think with the benefit of hindsight we might have done better going a different direction.

[Deranged Rhino]

Just because I'm not picking out Sammy's bust for Canton doesn't mean I don't think he's had a very good first 8 games. Why is it all or nothing with some people ?

 

Look, I've said on numerous occasions that I've been very happy with Watkins, the player. All I said in my post is that I haven't seen him being that significantly different than Benjamin and Beckham AT THIS STAGE, 8 GAMES IN ! His production has been inconsistent and he's had a couple mental lapses that are typical of a rookies, so has Benjamin and Beckham has been hurt. Benjamin made a great catch in the Seattle game on Sunday between 2 All PROS (Thomas and Sherman), he's a good player.

 

Why does thinking another WR is good have to take something away from Watkins ? You can love Sammy's play and still respect and love Benjamin's.

 

If I had to pick one WR from that draft today, I'd pick Watkins. No doubt. But, at this stage, I'd rather Benjamin and our 1st and 4th pick next year.

 

Again, let's let sustained and consistent performance determine his value and the value of the trade.

 

I'm not taking the position you can't love them both, but the subject of the thread is was the trade worth it. I'm saying, based on watching the actual games Benjamin has played rather than just looking at stats or highlights, saying he's been "close" to as good as Watkins is not true. There is nothing Benjamin does better than Watkins, even when Watkins had a busted rib and EJ throwing to him.

 

You and Matt are making the argument that Benjamin plus the picks next year would be better than Sammy (or at least it's too early to tell). I say that's wrong. It's not too early to tell if you actually watch Benjamin play. He's good, I enjoy watching him -- but he's not Sammy. He's not even in Sammy's league as far as physical tools and ability.

 

Exactly where my head is.

 

Why? If I had to decide today, I'd choose Benjamin and the picks. I wasn't screaming for Benjamin at any time; I just think with the benefit of hindsight we might have done better going a different direction.

 

And I'd say to you, go watch Benjamin play. Sammy has directly contributed to at least 4 of the 5 wins with huge plays in big moments. Benjamin might have made those same plays -- but I doubt it. He doesn't have the same level of skills as Sammy. If we had Benjamin rather than Sammy this team is sitting 3-5 or worse headed into the bye.

 

Of course that's speculation and everyone can have their opinion.

[K-9]

Just because I'm not picking out Sammy's bust for Canton doesn't mean I don't think he's had a very good first 8 games. Why is it all or nothing with some people ?

 

Look, I've said on numerous occasions that I've been very happy with Watkins, the player. All I said in my post is that I haven't seen him being that significantly different than Benjamin and Beckham AT THIS STAGE, 8 GAMES IN ! His production has been inconsistent and he's had a couple mental lapses that are typical of a rookies, so has Benjamin and Beckham has been hurt. Benjamin made a great catch in the Seattle game on Sunday between 2 All PROS (Thomas and Sherman), he's a good player.

 

Why does thinking another WR is good have to take something away from Watkins ? You can love Sammy's play and still respect and love Benjamin's.

 

If I had to pick one WR from that draft today, I'd pick Watkins. No doubt. But, at this stage, I'd rather Benjamin and our 1st and 4th pick next year.

 

Again, let's let sustained and consistent performance determine his value and the value of the trade.

 

Yes, we all need to do that.

 

Unfortunately, GM's don't have that luxury. What Whaley did have was a consensus among the various talent evaluators that Watkins was one of the bluest chips coming out of college, regardless of position, in years. Taking nothing away from Benjamin, but he wasn't close to Watkins as a prospect. Benjamin was rated as a legit starter in the league, Watkins was rated a STAR, an All Pro down the line.

 

Now Benjamin may indeed become the All Pro and Watkins end up a bust in the long run, but coming out, which was all anyone had to go by, he was head and shoulders above anyone else as a prospect at every position, let alone WR.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Deranged Rhino]

Yes, we all need to do that.

 

Unfortunately, GM's don't have that luxury. What Whaley did have was a consensus among the various talent evaluators that Watkins was one of the bluest chips coming out of college, regardless of position, in years. Taking nothing away from Benjamin, but he wasn't close to Watkins as a prospect. Benjamin was rated as a legit starter in the league, Watkins was rated a STAR, an All Pro down the line.

 

Now Benjamin may indeed become the All Pro and Watkins end up a bust in the long run, but coming out, which was all anyone had to go by, he was head and shoulders above anyone else as a prospect at every position, let alone WR.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

You're right and this is well said, but it goes further than that. Watkins has been head and shoulders above everyone else on the field in actual games. Even when he doesn't get the ball, he's getting separation and forcing defenses to adjust to him -- then, when they adjust, he still ends up making plays. Benjamin has the benefit of playing with Cam and being the only playmaker on the roster and even then he isn't being doubled or safety shaded the way Watkins is.

[Kelly the Dog]

Exactly where my head is.

 

Why? If I had to decide today, I'd choose Benjamin and the picks. I wasn't screaming for Benjamin at any time; I just think with the benefit of hindsight we might have done better going a different direction.

But it's like saying we should have drafted Colin Kaepernick and we could have drafted a great OG instead of EJ and then we would have a chance at a SB. Of course in hindsight you can draft better players, at virtually every position.

[K-9]

You're right and this is well said, but it goes further than that. Watkins has been head and shoulders above everyone else on the field in actual games. Even when he doesn't get the ball, he's getting separation and forcing defenses to adjust to him -- then, when they adjust, he still ends up making plays. Benjamin has the benefit of playing with Cam and being the only playmaker on the roster and even then he isn't being doubled or safety shaded the way Watkins is.

 

I agree. I've observed the same dominant performances by Watkins as well. He's rare bird. I don't know what else to say. I've only seen Benjamin a couple time this year and I like what I see, but he's not even close to Watkins in raw ability. There is not one single aspect of the position that SW doesn't do better than most. Already.

 

It is obvious to me why he had a history making college career.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Kelly the Dog]

I agree. I've observed the same dominant performances by Watkins as well. He's rare bird. I don't know what else to say. I've only seen Benjamin a couple time this year and I like what I see, but he's not even close to Watkins in raw ability. There is not one single aspect of the position that SW doesn't do better than most. Already.

 

It is obvious to me why he had a history making college career.

 

GO BILLS!!!

And they really didn't use him as well as they could have, although it's hard to argue with their strategy.

 

I'm not sure about this, without being there, but it's possible one of the reasons that we haven't seen the Bills use Watkins much on Jet Sweeps and reverses, like he did a lot at Clemson, was that he didn't really like it. I heard him say that flat out around draft time.

 

At the time (and now for that matter), what he was talking about was in reference to the criticisms that he didn't run a lot of pro patterns in his senior year. And he said that he was asked to do a lot of running out of the backfield and reverses and bubble screens because it was working and teams were so scared of him beating them deep that they played so far back. And the Clemson coaches were saying, rightfully I guess, that if you're just going to give us 8-12 yards a crack we'll keep doing it until you stop us. Watkins was saying he didn't want to run a lot, and didn't want all those screens, because he wanted to run patterns and go downfield a lot more. But maybe he just doesn't like running those plays and told the coaches that.

[mrags]

 

 

'Fantastic' is under-selling it. Those numbers would fall into the top-5 rookie performances...of all time.

you got it right here bro

[Matt in KC]

But it's like saying we should have drafted Colin Kaepernick and we could have drafted a great OG instead of EJ and then we would have a chance at a SB. Of course in hindsight you can draft better players, at virtually every position.

I'll concede that. But I thought the whole point of this thread was to answer "If the Bills could do it all over would you make the trade?" when it was posted October 6th, after the first 5 games.

 

Yes, with hindsight, I still think Benjamin + picks is better. Without hindsight, I had, and have, no problem at all with what the Bills did. I am thrilled with Watkins and prefer him to Benjamin.

 

I have watched some of what Benjamin has done this year, but not nearly as much as Watkins. What I have seen is another game-changer, remarkable for a rookie. I have no doubt about Watkins' skill, just open questions about Benjamin, their long-term durability, and if the Bills really needed those picks to round out the cast of a winning team.

 

Time and perspective will sort out who is better, and by how much in the long-term. Another couple weeks in a row of performances like this week's, and I'll change my mind and vote. I just doubt that Watkins has the better showing every week, and expect it will take longer to get a realistic view of what their initial 4-5 years will look like.

[Koufax]

I don't generally like future pick trades, because they give up the long term roster talent of the team. But this time I will take Watkins over Ebron and the #32 pick in the 2015 draft.

 

It might hurt more if that pick slides back into the teens, but it isn't likely to sit too high. And while I was smart enough to get Kelvin Benjamin on my fantasy team, I don't think he is reasonably thought to be the pick at #9 and that is more like the giving up a 5th rounder for Tom Brady revisionism, and Mike Evans was off the board, so it is Ebron or Beckham plus a pick vs Watkins. I'm happy with the trade, and every time we win the value of the pick drops and we can get happier.

[Kelly the Dog]

I'll concede that. But I thought the whole point of this thread was to answer "If the Bills could do it all over would you make the trade?" when it was posted October 6th, after the first 5 games.

 

Yes, with hindsight, I still think Benjamin + picks is better. Without hindsight, I had, and have, no problem at all with what the Bills did. I am thrilled with Watkins and prefer him to Benjamin.

 

I have watched some of what Benjamin has done this year, but not nearly as much as Watkins. What I have seen is another game-changer, remarkable for a rookie. I have no doubt about Watkins' skill, just open questions about Benjamin, their long-term durability, and if the Bills really needed those picks to round out the cast of a winning team.

 

Time and perspective will sort out who is better, and by how much in the long-term. Another couple weeks in a row of performances like this week's, and I'll change my mind and vote. I just doubt that Watkins has the better showing every week, and expect it will take longer to get a realistic view of what their initial 4-5 years will look like.

Got it. Cool. I agree with 90% of that, although I would still want Watkins over Benjamin and the pick. Right now. if Benjamin keeps this up and has a career path as good as Sammy, then it's a different story. I think that Benjamin will be a very good player and Watkins is a star. But of course, that is just a guess.

[K-9]

And they really didn't use him as well as they could have, although it's hard to argue with their strategy.

 

I'm not sure about this, without being there, but it's possible one of the reasons that we haven't seen the Bills use Watkins much on Jet Sweeps and reverses, like he did a lot at Clemson, was that he didn't really like it. I heard him say that flat out around draft time.

 

At the time (and now for that matter), what he was talking about was in reference to the criticisms that he didn't run a lot of pro patterns in his senior year. And he said that he was asked to do a lot of running out of the backfield and reverses and bubble screens because it was working and teams were so scared of him beating them deep that they played so far back. And the Clemson coaches were saying, rightfully I guess, that if you're just going to give us 8-12 yards a crack we'll keep doing it until you stop us. Watkins was saying he didn't want to run a lot, and didn't want all those screens, because he wanted to run patterns and go downfield a lot more. But maybe he just doesn't like running those plays and told the coaches that.

 

I guess he wouldn't be the first player to indicate a preference for certain plays or not. And I can't blame his college coaches for devising ways to use him or for taking what the defense gave him. Personally, I don't care if he never runs a jet sweep for us because he is such a polished threat as a receiver. As for those reports of him not running "pro routes" and that route running was a weakness, don't believe that for a second. He wowed scouts with his route running ability and I often refer to that SI article from April where they describe his workouts on a vacant field where it was just him and a set of orange cones. Apparently, he's been doing that for years and I think that's the singular characteristic that sets him apart; his work ethic. I've heard he runs every practice rep like it's his last, too.

 

Simply put, you can't coach what he has. And Whaley (and everybody else for that matter), knew that. That trade was a no-brainer from where I sit. Star players are difference makers and SW has been that at every level he's played and we're seeing that as well as a pro.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited October 28, 2014 by K-9

[Kelly the Dog]

I guess he wouldn't be the first player to indicate a preference for certain plays or not. And I can't blame his college coaches for devising ways to use him or for taking what the defense gave him. Personally, I don't care if he never runs a jet sweep for us because he is such a polished threat as a receiver. As for those reports of him not running "pro routes" and that route running was a weakness, don't believe that for a second. He wowed scouts with his route running ability and I often refer to that SI article from April where they describe his workouts on a vacant field where it was just him and a set of orange cones. Apparently, he's been doing that for years and I think that's the singular characteristic that sets him apart; his work ethic. I've heard he runs every practice rep like it's his last, too.

 

Simply put, you can't coach what he has. And Whaley (and everybody else for that matter), knew that. That trade was a no-brainer from where I sit. Star players are difference makers and SW has been that at every level he's played and we're seeing that as well as a pro.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Great post. Totally agree. And to add to the alleged scouts calling his route running a weakness, I very much doubt any real scout thought that in any way. That was all TV scouts and draftniks that watch a couple games and have graduated from MSU (Making Schitt Up). He ran more regular routes as a freshman and ran them great and dominated.

[Wing Man]

Look, barring some sort of career threatening injury, the eye test says Watkins is going to be an NFL superstar. I'm not hearing about any other 1st or 2nd round receivers lighting it up like him. He blew the TD on the 80+ yard reception against the Jets on Sunday, but honestly, SJ never gets separation or catches that ball. Williams hasn't panned out as a top receiver and EJ was just short of a Geno Smith size bust. Watkins gives an average backup journeyman quarterback a weapon to compensate for any weaknesses he may bring to the game that few other teams will have for years. Furthermore, it looks like we won't be giving the Browns a top 10, maybe even not a top 15 pick in the draft next year. It would be great to have that first rounder and I'm sure Pegula and whoever he brings in to evaluate the entire organization will have something to say on the subject. Whaley may or may not have a job after that. Either way, it was an extremely bold move by Whaley to execute the trade and the Bills have been bold averse for too long.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

I'm not sure about this, without being there, but it's possible one of the reasons that we haven't seen the Bills use Watkins much on Jet Sweeps and reverses, like he did a lot at Clemson, was that he didn't really like it. I heard him say that flat out around draft time.

 

 

I didn't know this. As one who's been wondering where these plays have been in the Bills' game plans, this provides a possible answer.

[mannc]

 

 

I didn't know this. As one who's been wondering where these plays have been in the Bills' game plans, this provides a possible answer.

Or maybe it's because they don't want him to get hit any more than necessary, given the rib injury. That seems more likely, to me.

[Kelly the Dog]

I didn't know this. As one who's been wondering where these plays have been in the Bills' game plans, this provides a possible answer.

Yeah, possible. Again, what I took from it at the time was that, if he got 6 touches he would have preferred to run 5 patterns downfield and do 1 sweep, rather than 2 sweeps, 3 screens and 1 long pattern. But it may have been also that he doesn't doesn't want to be a running back, he thinks he's best used running patterns and getting his ridiculous separation.

 

Or maybe it's because they don't want him to get hit any more than necessary, given the rib injury. That seems more likely, to me.

And this.