Watkins trade revisited

[Deranged Rhino]

Or maybe it's because they don't want him to get hit any more than necessary, given the rib injury. That seems more likely, to me.

 

That's what I assumed was the reason while he was injured -- but he's been 100% for at least two games now and we still haven't seen it. We've seen them fake it, but not run it.

 

Though, we haven't seen bubble screens to any of the WRs that I recall, so maybe Hackett just doesn't have it in his scheme. I completely understand wanting to avoid getting Sammy hit, but it's such a threat and can be used to help the rest of the running game. All they'd need to do is run it once or twice for a big gainer and then every team would have to prep to defend it. It's a tool that could be used to help open up the counter game and inside runs that Hackett loves.

 

Yeah, possible. Again, what I took from it at the time was that, if he got 6 touches he would have preferred to run 5 patterns downfield and do 1 sweep, rather than 2 sweeps, 3 screens and 1 long pattern. But it may have been also that he doesn't doesn't want to be a running back, he thinks he's best used running patterns and getting his ridiculous separation.

 

That makes sense for Sammy to feel that way in college, he's trying to put together film that shows he can succeed at the next level. It makes less sense that he'd be against it in the pros -- unless it's just a preference thing for him which is odd but I get happens.

Edited October 28, 2014 by GreggyT

[The Big Cat]

Imagine what it would look like with another 3 games with a real NFL QB at the helm...

 

Extrapolated over 16 games, his time with Orton would look like:

 

84/1572/12

 

[Deranged Rhino]

Extrapolated over 16 games, his time with Orton would look like:

 

84/1572/12

 

 

Better than Moss. Of course, different era but still...

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

Better than Moss. Of course, different era but still...

It's also about 200 yards & 2 TDs more than any WR in Bills history.

[Kelly the Dog]

Extrapolated over 16 games, his time with Orton would look like:

 

84/1572/12

 

And extrapolated over 16 games with Orton and sans idiocy, would look like:

 

84/1586/16

 

[Deranged Rhino]

It's also about 200 yards & 2 TDs more than any WR in Bills history.

 

Good point!

 

And extrapolated over 16 games with Orton and sans idiocy, would look like:

 

84/1586/16

 

Sign me up.

[TXBILLSFAN]

 

Unless you were publicly screaming relentlessly for the Bills to please draft Kelvin Benjamin with their number one pick that is a tough stance to support. Perhaps you were.

My draft strategy isn't on trial in this thread, but, for what it's worth and to give you a sense of my perspective, I wanted Bills to stand pat at 9 and take either a top OL or top LB. I thought those were the two most important holes to plug. In a deep WR draft, I thought if they wanted to go in that direction they could wait, but also thought a upgrade at TE made more sense in round 2.

 

I think a team without a franchise QB needs to hold onto their 1st round picks in order to have the best chance to land one, whether that's a trade or using the actual selection on one. I was not sold on EJ at the time of the draft and I am even less sold on him now. The loss of the 1st round pick remains my biggest issue with the Watkins trade.

 

The OP wanted us to weigh in NOW, not after the season or after the next draft -- both of those time periods might yield different conclusions.

 

 

 

[Kelly the Dog]

My draft strategy isn't on trial in this thread, but, for what it's worth and to give you a sense of my perspective, I wanted Bills to stand pat at 9 and take either a top OL or top LB. I thought those were the two most important holes to plug. In a deep WR draft, I thought if they wanted to go in that direction they could wait, but also thought a upgrade at TE made more sense in round 2.

 

I think a team without a franchise QB needs to hold onto their 1st round picks in order to have the best chance to land one, whether that's a trade or using the actual selection on one. I was not sold on EJ at the time of the draft and I am even less sold on him now. The loss of the 1st round pick remains my biggest issue with the Watkins trade.

 

The OP wanted us to weigh in NOW, not after the season or after the next draft -- both of those time periods might yield different conclusions.

I understand all that. But the Benjamin pick at 9 wasn't really a viable option. No one thought he was worth that or would go that high. I just think it's kind of a hard argument to make that the Bills should have taken Benjamin and then kept the pick when it really wasn't a scenario without hindsight 20-20. But a very legitimate one if you were saying hey, Benjamin is really good, take him at 9 because everyone knew Sammy would be gone by 1-5.

 

And I totally understand your philosophy on a QB.

 

My argument at the time, and it hasn't changed, is that for virtually all teams, a number one pick is a 50-50 crap shoot in retrospect. There are precious few surefire can't miss guys. Some years there isn't one. Watkins was one, and almost sure to be a star. If you knew you would have a star player every two years, and no pick the next year, I would do it every single time. You would be a perennial Super Bowl contender.

[TXBILLSFAN]

 

I understand all that. But the Benjamin pick at 9 wasn't really a viable option. No one thought he was worth that or would go that high. I just think it's kind of a hard argument to make that the Bills should have taken Benjamin and then kept the pick when it really wasn't a scenario without hindsight 20-20. But a very legitimate one if you were saying hey, Benjamin is really good, take him at 9 because everyone knew Sammy would be gone by 1-5.

 

And I totally understand your philosophy on a QB.

 

My argument at the time, and it hasn't changed, is that for virtually all teams, a number one pick is a 50-50 crap shoot in retrospect. There are precious few surefire can't miss guys. Some years there isn't one. Watkins was one, and almost sure to be a star. If you knew you would have a star player every two years, and no pick the next year, I would do it every single time. You would be a perennial Super Bowl contender.

 

I didn't want to suggest that I thought the Bills would have taken Benjamin had they stayed at 9 --- because, I don't think he was rated high enough to warrant that -- if they wanted Benjamin, they could have traded back into the low 20's and comfortably gotten him --- now that would have been an interesting move, but really a "hindsight is 20/20" argument

 

 

More than likely, had the Bills stayed at 9 and wanted a WR, Beckham would have been the choice --- others have stated that the Bills are on record as saying they'd have taken Ebron --- I would have wanted them to draft Mosley, Barr, Lewan or Martin --- not sure how Lewan is doing, but the others would have been nice fits --

 

I\

Edited October 29, 2014 by TXBILLSFAN

[Kelly the Dog]

I didn't want to suggest that I thought the Bills would have taken Benjamin had they stayed at 9 --- because, I don't think he was rated high enough to warrant that -- if they wanted Benjamin, they could have traded back into the low 20's and comfortably gotten him --- now that would have been an interesting move, but really a "hindsight is 20/20" argument

 

 

More than likely, had the Bills stayed at 9 and wanted a WR, Beckham would have been the choice --- others have stated that the Bills are on record as saying they'd have taken Ebron --- I would have wanted them to draft Mosley, Barr, Lewan or Martin --- not sure how Lewan is doing, but the others would have been nice fits --

 

I\

Yeah, Chris Brown stated in one of the videos after the draft that Ebron was the guy. I was very surprised to see that.

[TXBILLSFAN]

 

Yeah, Chris Brown stated in one of the videos after the draft that Ebron was the guy. I was very surprised to see that.

 

Got it, yeah Chris Brown is the mouthpiece, so I'd buy it if he said it --- I wasn't a big fan of Ebron heading into draft, didn't like his attitude and didn't like taking a TE with a pick that high --- although, a great TE is almost as good as a great WR these days

[Rob's House]

I love the argument that the Bills made a great move trading up because they would have blown the pick otherwise even though other talent was available.

 

Next time I get too drunk to drive home and crash at my friend's house I'll explain to my wife how getting wasted and passing out was brilliant because otherwise I'd have gotten wasted and wrecked the car, and hope she doesn't realize that drinking less was an option.

[Dibs]

I love the argument that the Bills made a great move trading up because they would have blown the pick otherwise even though other talent was available.

 

Next time I get too drunk to drive home and crash at my friend's house I'll explain to my wife how getting wasted and passing out was brilliant because otherwise I'd have gotten wasted and wrecked the car, and hope she doesn't realize that drinking less was an option.

 

Though some may have flippantly said that(or somewhat disturbingly seriously said it), the concept that draft picks are generally a hit/miss percentage is very valid in the discussion.

 

The reality is that most 1st round picks do not pan out into the players that are hoped for.

 

Are two 1st hit/miss picks worth one....ahem...certain stud(with hit/miss superstar potential)? That is pretty much the arguement.....not that we definately would have missed on the two other picks.

 

 

I personally don't have a problem with people not changing their minds about the trade after seeing how special SW is. If the situation were reversed and SW was only looking to be decent/good, it wouldn't have effected how I view the trade(and I'm sure most others as well).

 

To me it really isn't about how SW performs or even ends up performing like. It comes down to whether I thought it was worth it to go for a guy whom the Bills FO saw not only as the best player in the draft, but a true superstar potential player. His performance does not effect how my views are about that trade.......and I respect those who had(have) the opinion that the trade was not worth it, and are not influenced by SW's performance to date.

 

In short, one can agree/disagree with the trade regardless of how SW plays and IMO still hold a legitimately strong arguement(as drafting is not a science......not yet at least).

Edited October 29, 2014 by Dibs

[Rob's House]

 

 

Though some may have flippantly said that(or somewhat disturbingly seriously said it), the concept that draft picks are generally a hit/miss percentage is very valid in the discussion.

 

The reality is that most 1st round picks do not pan out into the players that are hoped for.

 

Are two 1st hit/miss picks worth one....ahem...certain stud(with hit/miss superstar potential)? That is pretty much the arguement.....not that we definately would have missed on the two other picks.

 

 

I personally don't have a problem with people not changing their minds about the trade after seeing how special SW is. If the situation were reversed and SW was only looking to be decent/good, it wouldn't have effected how I view the trade(and I'm sure most others as well).

 

To me it really isn't about how SW performs or even ends up performing like. It comes down to whether I thought it was worth it to go for a guy whom the Bills FO saw not only as the best player in the draft, but a true superstar potential player. His performance does not effect how my views are about that trade.......and I respect those who had(have) the opinion that the trade was not worth it, and are not influenced by SW's performance to date.

 

In short, one can agree/disagree with the trade regardless of how SW plays and IMO still hold a legitimately strong arguement(as drafting is not a science......not yet at least).

 

I'm glad we made the trade, largely for the reasons you gave. I was just making fun of the argument that they nailed it because their plan B sucked.

[Dibs]

I'm glad we made the trade, largely for the reasons you gave. I was just making fun of the argument that they nailed it because their plan B sucked.

 

The thing that I am really enjoying about this thread is that for the most part everyone is being very cordial and respectful to each other. I put that down to the concept that whether one agrees with the trade or not, everyone is happy with how SW looks.....very happy in most cases.

 

What a rare treat it is on a Bills forum to discuss the relative merits of our FO decisions when either way we have done well. Sammy Watkins is like a magic bullet for Bills fans .

[YoloinOhio]

Buffalo Bills ‏@buffalobills 8m8 minutes ago Orchard Park, NY

If he stays on pace, @sammywatkins will set BIG rookie records with BIG rookie numbers. #justsaying

 

[Koufax]

My draft strategy isn't on trial in this thread [...] I wanted Bills to stand pat at 9 and take either a top OL or top LB. I thought those were the two most important holes to plug.

 

If you are plugging "holes" at #9, and in doing so taking inferior players to those available at other positions, then your draft strategy is on trial. If on the other hand you think that a top OL or top LB is the best player available at the pick, then go ahead and take him without worrying about the holes to plug.

 

When you draft for perceived need, you over-estimate the ability of a rookie to contribute in year 1, and you guarantee that you are adding less total talent to your roster over the four or five year rookie contract.

 

In Watkins' case, I think the trade is exciting and reasonable. We clearly got a better player this season than would have been available at #9, and the extra pick we gave up to move up is dropping in value from the "Hey, we could have drafted a Maybin with that pick!" to the "Hey we could have drafted a McCargo with that pick!" (I am jokingly cherry picking).

 

What cannot be doubted is that we got more 2014 value than without the trade. The only question is if the value of the unknown 2015 pick we gave up proves too costly over the next few years compared to the difference between Watkins and who we reasonably would have considered at #9.

[st pete gogolak]

As someone not enamored of the trade (understood the rationale but still didn't like it), I'm ready to declare the trade a win. The real danger in the trade was potentially giving up a top 5 or top 10 pick (irrespective if you're going to use that pick on a QB or another blue chip prospect). Absent a total and epic collapse, that ain't going to happen. So you've obtaining an absolute budding superstar in exchange for Anthony Barr/Eric Ebron and next year's #19 or #20 pick. Let's assume that pick is a Zach Martin type (which is assuming a lot). Would you trade Sammy Watkins for Eric Ebron and Zach Martin? Hell, yes. The trade's a win. You can declare it right now.

[TXBILLSFAN]

 

 

If you are plugging "holes" at #9, and in doing so taking inferior players to those available at other positions, then your draft strategy is on trial. If on the other hand you think that a top OL or top LB is the best player available at the pick, then go ahead and take him without worrying about the holes to plug.

 

When you draft for perceived need, you over-estimate the ability of a rookie to contribute in year 1, and you guarantee that you are adding less total talent to your roster over the four or five year rookie contract.

 

In Watkins' case, I think the trade is exciting and reasonable. We clearly got a better player this season than would have been available at #9, and the extra pick we gave up to move up is dropping in value from the "Hey, we could have drafted a Maybin with that pick!" to the "Hey we could have drafted a McCargo with that pick!" (I am jokingly cherry picking).

 

What cannot be doubted is that we got more 2014 value than without the trade. The only question is if the value of the unknown 2015 pick we gave up proves too costly over the next few years compared to the difference between Watkins and who we reasonably would have considered at #9.

Agree with your thoughts, except your assumption on my opinion on BPA.

 

When there is little or no difference in the rankings of several players, you pick the one that fills a position of need -- all teams do that. The BPA philosophy comes into play when you "reach" for a player based on need. The one exception a lot of teams will allow for is QB. Bills did that with EJ, many others have done that as well.

 

Beckham, Lewan, Mosley and Barr all had 9th overall grades by most draft experts.

 

Said another way, if in the 2014 draft's 2nd round, the Bills had similar grades on OT, DT and WR, they would take OT, why ? they didn't need another DT and just selected a WR.

 

Said a third way, if you take BPA to an extreme a team could, in theory draft a WR in 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds. That would never happen. Common sense factors in.

Edited October 29, 2014 by TXBILLSFAN