Kevin Gaughn article in the Buffalo News re: Decline of Buffalo

[dubs]

Didn't see this topic posted, thought it to be refreshing and certainly relevant to the Bills in Buffalo discussion.

 

http://mobile.buffalonews.com/?articleRedirect=1

 

IMHO, the decline of Buffalo over the last 40 years has been the biggest, unnecessary tragedy of the area. It's relevant because even if we get our wish and the Pegula's buy the Bills, their ownership is likely only a band aid. While improvement have been made over recent months to the climate of the area, the only thing that can truly reverse the direction is the attraction of new businesses to the area.

 

Thought this a potentially interesting discussion. Would love to hear others opinions on this, maybe some personal experiences.

 

 

[Marv's Neighbor]

Of course he's right BUT attracting new businesses is easier said than done.

 

NY state has been in decline for many years. NY used to have 45 Representatives in the US House, now it's down to the high 20's, all due to state population loss. NY City hasn't missed a beat, but the rest of the state has been wiped out. I live in Virginia, and see the NY STATE IS OPEN FOR BUSINESS ads on TV. What a hoot! ALL the taxes are way too high. Sales tax, Property tax, gasoline tax, you name it, NY is way out of line.

 

Sad thing is, it's not just Buffalo, it's our entire fan base area. It's Syracuse and Rochester too. The front page of the NEWS today says Cuomo is 32 points ahead in the polls. So NY is ready to continue the same old corruption, and nothing will change.

 

I hope Mr Pegula is successful with his bid, and hope the BILLS succeed too, but they're in a difficult environment.

[PromoTheRobot]

Didn't see this topic posted, thought it to be refreshing and certainly relevant to the Bills in Buffalo discussion.

 

http://mobile.buffal...ticleRedirect=1

 

IMHO, the decline of Buffalo over the last 40 years has been the biggest, unnecessary tragedy of the area. It's relevant because even if we get our wish and the Pegula's buy the Bills, their ownership is likely only a band aid. While improvement have been made over recent months to the climate of the area, the only thing that can truly reverse the direction is the attraction of new businesses to the area.

 

Thought this a potentially interesting discussion. Would love to hear others opinions on this, maybe some personal experiences.

 

LInk doesn't work. Also can't find this story on the BN website,

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

LInk doesn't work. Also can't find this story on the BN website,

 

http://www.buffalone...morrow-20140809

 

...the only thing that can truly reverse the direction is the attraction of new businesses to the area.

 

 

Isn't this the goal of every city out there?

[Best Player Available]

Same semi annual story, just a different writer.

 

When are these shluck politicians going to demand these super fund sights get cleaned up?

besides some tax breaks, what else is there to not only attract employers but employees?

 

as anyone with kids or were raised in Buffalo and left as a kid. We all know Buffalos greatest

Export is young people. potential talent for the work force. Why stay? Well besides an awesome football team.

The bleeding of young talent IMO is gaining speed not slowing down.

[PolishDave]

IMHO, the decline of Buffalo over the last 40 years has been the biggest, unnecessary tragedy of the area. It's relevant because even if we get our wish and the Pegula's buy the Bills, their ownership is likely only a band aid. While improvement have been made over recent months to the climate of the area, the only thing that can truly reverse the direction is the attraction of new businesses to the area.

 

Thought this a potentially interesting discussion. Would love to hear others opinions on this, maybe some personal experiences.

 

To be honest, I love the topic. But to discuss this topic I feel like I have to talk politics. And I don't feel like pissing a bunch of people off talking about politics. That happens often enough just talking about football.

[jr1]

The weather doesn't help either

[Like A Mofo]

Even Green Bay's population is on the way up: http://www.censusscope.org/us/m3080/chart_popl.html

[dubs]

 

 

To be honest, I love the topic. But to discuss this topic I feel like I have to talk politics. And I don't feel like pissing a bunch of people off talking about politics. That happens often enough just talking about football.

 

Agreed. It's a fine line and I learned a few times not to cross it on The Stadium Wall.

 

It's unfortunate though. Starting with politics almost makes an assumption of fact that politics are necessary, so it becomes a question if sides. When in reality all Buffalonians should be on the same side and our 'advaseries' would be other cities, states, etc... The more decisions are made that better buffalo, the better it is for all of us. But I know that sounds hokey or unrealistic.

 

[Storm Front]

There is no way to get around the damage done by the St. Lawrence Seaway.

[zonabb]

This invariably will decline into a political argument and that's a waste of time because quite honestly, both sides of the aisle in NY are culpable for this situation. And this also will invariably lead to myths and urban legends about "why" we are the way we are. Two I see already in seven posts.

 

1. NY is down in House membership due to population loss. Not true. Although population decline statewide in only one decade in its history, the 70s, it's been on the rise ever since, albeit slower than in the past. You need a lesson in proportional representation. Other states have grown faster and caught up and we've lost representation due to what is happening elsewhere. This state is old and developed way earlier than the booming sunbelt states... we lead first. Now others are growing like we once did. That's the cycle of economics. The northeast was heavily invested in a mono-economy... we made stuff. Some cities and regions survived after deindustrialization due to a more diverse economy.

 

2. Weather, what a laugher. Ever been to Seattle or Portland, you don't see the sun for weeks as it rains constantly. Or Minneapolis, where the winters are way harsher yet they have countless Fortune 500 companies? Weather's an excuse because other cities, dare I say Toronto, have managed to overcome that myth.

 

3. Had to add this... the St. Lawrence. Although it did have an effect, decline was well underway prior to its opening. It opened in 1959. 1950 was the last year Buffalo saw population growth and businesses and factories were already closed after the high production during WWII dropped off. It wasn't the single causal factor by a very minor one because in reality, if anything, the City could have continued manufacturing like every other Great lakes city and taken advantage of the Seaway. It didn't because the economy was already declining.

 

And lastly, Gaughn's an egotistical, self-anointed savior who refuses to engage with any planning entity that he doesn't start and then he manages to keep everyone out of his "discussions" because he likes to hear himself, and only himself talk. And he's talked too long, no one cares anymore, including me who used to think this guy would be a benefit rather than just another talking head. Oh, and his data that there is small amount of population growth... that's typical Buffalo "everything is getting better" mythology. That small growth is an estimate with a margin of error that I am too lazy to look up but certainly possible that there is population loss.

Edited August 11, 2014 by zonabb

[Big Blitz]

He's right. And its exactly why you don't turn downtown into a bunch of parking lots for 3 sports stadiums---a downtown with limited space as it is. Bars and restaurants are nice. But none of these things tells businesses its time to relocate to Buffalo.

 

No one is going to build hotels down there just because we built a stadium for the Bills. Or relocate their company.

Baltimore did similar things Buffalo is doing with its inner harbor. Plus put both stadiums next to each other. They did it 10 years ago and I'm not sure its benefited the city as a whole.

 

There's a lot to be optimistic about for Buffalo. Just dont be fooled into thinking new stadium = economic turnaround. There are plenty of studies that say just the opposite.

[dubs]

The weather doesn't help either

 

Eh...I think weather is too often used as a convenient crutch or excuse. The weather in Chicago sucks, the weather in Boston sucks, the weather in Toronto sucks, the weather in Minneapolis sucks, the weather in London sucks. I'd even make the argument that the weather in Houston sucks.

[8-8 Forever?]

B Lo has been in a tough spot for a long time. But it looks like someone is likely to pay $800-900m and keep the team there, at least for 5 or 6 years and probably longer.... as from an economic perspective, State and County would be insane to build a $1B stadium for 10 games per year, but they probably will. The reality is WNY is a AAA town trying to keep a Major league franchise. With the revenue sharing from the TV deals, gate receipt sharing from the other 31 stadiums who charge double the Bills ticket price, plus otherwise well-meaning government liberals who have no concept of working within a budget, it looks like the Bills will be staying for a long time as the the NFL's "charity case". Hey, any port in a storm, as they say.

[hondo in seattle]

http://www.buffalone...morrow-20140809

 

 

 

Isn't this the goal of every city out there?

 

No. Seattle just passed legislation to raise it's minimum wage to $15/hour. Moves like that don't make your city attractive to new businesses. New York's problem has been it's high taxes. NYC overcomes the high taxes because it's the financial capitol of the country, if not the world, and it's advantages offset its costs.

[SF Bills Fan]

This article is pretty accurate. It has been an awful 3-4 decades. Local politics and the high taxes and cost of doing business has taken it's toll. But, things do seem to be turning around. Tax breaks and incentives like the kind that will lure Solarcity to build their plant at the Riverbend site are the kind of things that places like Dallas and Charlotte have done for years. They have been buying away jobs from Buffalo, Cleveland and other rust belt cities for years, so it is nice to see the state finally getting a clue. Obviously, the NFL long ago outgrew Buffalo and retaining the Bills is a small victory and we are lucky to have people willing to step up. But bringing jobs in and turning things around will justify keeping them there in the long run. I'm cautiously optimistic for the future of Buffalo. The area is far from being out of the woods, but at least you don't hear wolves howling anymore.

[KnightRider]

There is no way to get around the damage done by the St. Lawrence Seaway.

 

This is a huge contributor... Buffalo's economy was built on that canal. http://www.nysun.com/opinion/can-buffalo-ever-come-back/64879/ does a pretty good job making a case that the St Lawrence was the spark that caused the fall.

 

No. Seattle just passed legislation to raise it's minimum wage to $15/hour. Moves like that don't make your city attractive to new businesses. New York's problem has been it's high taxes. NYC overcomes the high taxes because it's the financial capitol of the country, if not the world, and it's advantages offset its costs.

 

I openly admit there are few taxes I don't think need cutting, but I think high property property tax rates are probably the real problem. Quite a while ago, I read a WSJ article talking about how Boston and San Francisco's rebounds were due to a dramatic drop in property tac rates in 1978 for California, and 1982 for Mass... Found it!! http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/property-tax-cut-could-help-save-buffalo

 

While I don't see a rebound of canal utilization anytime soon, I do think Buffalo has a lot going for it. Cheap, clean, energy, abundant fresh water, and real estate much cheaper than most of the country make it a huge opportunity, if the right actions were taken. Maybe Pegula's example can show the polititions they need a strong private sector, and that corporations are not inherently evil.

[CountDorkula]

I will say this. I am 27 and just moved out of Buffalo, and for someone my age. There is just not much there. Between property taxes which seem to be ever increasing, the corrupt local govt and lack of career opportunities, its no wonder why so many "Young kids" leave. I always thought I would be a Buffalonian for my life. But to be honest making this move has been very eye opening. its a shame NY is known for its great education but cannot take advantage of keeping things "in house" afterwards.

 

Property taxes for example. I was looking at comparables and over the course of a 30 year mortgage. I would be paying $105,000 less in property taxes compared to NYS. And that's not even on an extravagant home either. Basically a second mortgage. Not to mention the price of gas and sales tax. Yes the drinking may be cheap but its not as cheap as others make it out to be. Like someone also mentioned the weather also plays a major role.

 

Hopefully WNY can re-gain some strength.

[Ronin]

It's going to take a while to get WNY back to the kind of economic standard that an NFL team would thrive in. This growth that they say is finally showing up must be sustained, not merely a brief blip on a chart.

 

Remains to be seen, but there's a long way to go to get it up to par. Otherwise, Gaughan just states what the informed already know.

[Hplarrm]

I think the article is actually quite simplistic in its analysis and really misunderstands a number of things that I think one can quite comfortably label it as a nice try but pretty fundamentally wrong.

 

For example, on the key issue for this website Gaughan (and many others actually) really misread who the customer the ultimate decision-maker, the NFL is answering to here. Gaughan others seem to adopt an view of how the NFL actually operates and profits in the current economy that began to be put to bed when Pete Rozelle became the NFL Commissioner and finally died with the adoption of the Comprehensive Bargaining Agreement between the NFL and NFLPA in the late 80s or early 90s.

 

The businessmen who ran the NFL simply destroyed the AFL-CIO types led by Ed Garvey who ran the NFLPA in the mid-80s and threatened to go out on strike unless the NFL agreed to give the players 52% of the gross receipts. The owners instead hoodwinked them as any sharp businessman would and locked them out and essentially broke the union.

 

However, what a few smart players and smart NYC lawyers did was use this moment when traditional labor unions were discredited in the players eyes and convince the players to threaten to decertify the NFLPA. This move would have forced the owners into a true free market system where they signed individual players to personal service contracts. Instead the owners ran kicking and screaming to reject the free market and instead reach agreement with the NFLPA to restrain the rights of individual rights to live wherever they could get the best deal but instead work within constraints of free trade like the NFL draft.

 

The owners agreed to pursue this social compact system rather than the free market because the individual team owners stood to make more money from the TV nets working in a stable system with labor peace than they stood to make in the current social compact system of the NFL.

 

The real deal here is that the NFL almost certainly was never gonna leave Buffalo as this would mean that the NFL would be walking away from the alresdy captured cash from 45,000+ season ticket holders, the already usually obtained $ from 20,000+ game ticket buyers, the millions of $ from local advertisers and the 100s of millions in corporate welfare from various NYS govts.

 

Not only would this money NOT travel to another municipality, but in particular with a Toronto franchise the NFL has an avowed strategy of expanding into new markets and ending up with a Toronto franchise did not mandate giving away the millions from a Buffalo franchise.

 

The actual decision-maker is not the Ralph Trust but the NFL as an entity as Ralph contractually already agreed that 75% owners must agree to any sale. The market is not whether you go Buffalo or Toronto, but instead the NFL clearly would and can have both.

 

Another flaw in the Gaughan analysis is that taxes are the seemingly sole or even lead item which guides business decision-making. This is simply not the case. One can certainly make a generalization that might be accurate in a plethora (though not a majority of a marginal number of cases. However, issues such as tradition, family, weather, employment levels, buzz, and whatever make the difference in a lot of particular cases. If you want to make a claim that one particular item is the lead factor you really need to present a lot more factual evidence to support this claim rather than simply throw out some piece of conventional wisdom. Even if one accepts Gaughan's unsubstantiated with a lot of stats or facts claim it is taxes, then a lot of analysis needs to be presented to identify whether taxes should be cut to reward wall St. stockbrokers,increase the earned income tax credit, destroy home rule and the multiple locdal elected officials it supports or something else.

 

In the big picture, Gaughan also seems to make an assumption that NYS is like one big economic pie with fairly equal distribution of incomes and taxes. NOPe.

 

In fact, for us WNY residents, it seems quite possible where the eventual solution is the building of a stadium to paid for in large part by A NYS Sports Authority. Generally stadiums are a bad investment which does not pay for itself. However, a NYS authority would see NYS borrow the money at far better rates than a private business would get. Further, the lionshare of the costs of borrowing would be borne by NYS taxpayers as a whole which by far is taxes on NYC folks rather than WNYers. Further, while a bad investment overall, the relative spending benefits would be in th downtown Buffalo wasteland so the marginal benefit is higher and the costs get distributed. Bad fiscal investment by NYS but fiscal payoff for WNY and NYS politicians would do this as they stand to benefit with this giveaway to the 2nd largest concentration of voters in the state where NYC folks and suburban NYC folks balance each other out.