maryland-bills-fan Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 (edited) Many draft pundits claim that this trade was poorly done by the Bills and that they gave up too much to move up. The actual difference in points between #9 and #4 is {1800-1350) = 450 points. The Bills swapped the first round picks and in addition gave up the 2015 first and fourth round picks. How should we evaluate the cost for next year’s picks.? The usual assumption is that the Bills would finish the 2015 season with the same draft position, so using that criteria and the “standard assessment” of discounting next year’s picks by 50% of their value, then the Bills spend 717 points in order to move up 450 points. A bad deal. The view of Whaley is that the Bills will have a much better record next year, so the deal is not so bad. Here is the cost of next year’s 1st and 4th round picks [@ 50% discount] compared to possible draft slots that the Bills might attain next year. 2015 Finish ......……value of 1st & 4th .......................…..overpayment .......................................................overpayment in terms of a draft pick ============================================= 9…….....717…..…....267…………….top 3rd round pick 10……....691…..…....241 11……...655….....….215 12……...639….....…189………………middle 3rd round pick 13……...613……....163 14.……..587….....…137 15……...561…….....111……………..top 4th round pick 16…..….535……......85 17…..…509…….......59……………..~ middle 4th round pick 18..…….483……......33……………….middle 5th round pick 19……...470….....….20………………middle 5th round pick 20……...456…....……6……………….lower 7th round pick 21……...430…..…..-20 22…...…419……....-31 23……...408……...-42 24……..397……....-53 25……..386…....…-64 26……..375…...….-75 27….….365…….....-86 28……..354……....-96 29……..344.…….-107 30……..333..……-117 31……..323…..…-128 32……..317…….-133 So for the Bills to break even on the draft value chart, they would have to get to the #20th best record (Cardinals) with about a 10-4 record- win 6 more games. If they go 8-8 and match Pittsburg #15 spot, then the overpayment is a pick at the top of the 4th round. These are not gamebreakers- if the Bills improve their record. Another question is whether it was a good idea to give up a chance to draft an extra player in the first and third round next year. I don't think so. Edited May 9, 2014 by maryland-bills-fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 We won't know until at least the end of next season, plain and simple. If they make the playoffs? No. If they don't? Maybe. But they can make up the difference in FA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Point system chart is ridiculous. It depends on the player. Was Aaron Maybin worth more than Thurman because he was picked in 1st round? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webster Guy Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Prisco gave the move a C-. Hilarious. He might as well just give it an A or an F. Sammy has never played an NFL down and we have no idea who would be on the board next year in the first and 4th round when it was our turn to pick. Instant draft grades are a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardFan Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryland-bills-fan Posted May 9, 2014 Author Share Posted May 9, 2014 Point system chart is ridiculous. It depends on the player. Was Aaron Maybin worth more than Thurman because he was picked in 1st round? No, but I guess the extension of your argument would be that where you draft doesn't make any difference in the success of your football team. Hint: 7th rounders are not as good as 1st rounders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowery4 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 We won't know until at least the end of next season, plain and simple. If they make the playoffs? No. If they don't? Maybe. But they can make up the difference in FA. And other trades before and during the next draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Prisco gave the move a C-. Hilarious. He might as well just give it an A or an F. Sammy has never played an NFL down and we have no idea who would be on the board next year in the first and 4th round when it was our turn to pick. Instant draft grades are a joke. No kidding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T master Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Screw the pundits or experts as some call them ! Last year they said Cordy Glenn wasn't worth the pick & wasn't good enough to be a LT & look what he's done . So let's just sit back for another 5 years & take the left overs & see where we go from there . Basically we gave up a 1st & a 4th for Sammy , we still had a high 1st this year & we got a great player , and you get what you pay for !! Teams that win championships don't sit around and just take what comes to them you have to gamble once in a while . Whaley & company have just shown the Bills fan base that things have truly changed at the GM level & i'm liking what i've seen so far . Now if they can take some of our players like Hogan, Graham , & maybe even SJ & turn them into some picks no matter where they might be then the Bills will be & are in better hands now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I think its a steal. The Bills will not be a low pick next year. Mid to late 1st rounders are well worth what they are getting in Watkins. The drop from the best 4-6 players to who the Bills would get is very sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulMan Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Too much? Too early to tell. My prediction is that in 2016 the price paid will seem a bargain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 (edited) A few thoughts: -Watkins is going to be a star. -If they get to the playoffs it isn't too much because the pick will be in the low 20's in all likelihood. -If EJ develops it won't matter because this team will have lots of talent. They can address needs in FA next year if necessary plus have a 2nd & 3rd where they can find 2 starters. I do not expect this team to need more than 2 starters next year. If 1 of those is a RB they can get one of the best in the draft in the 2nd (probably not Gurley but lots of value for RB in the 2nd). -As of right now I think that they could use 2 OL (1 in, 1 out), a DE, a LB, a TE and a punter). They still have 5 more picks in this draft plus a trade chip in Stevie. While the price was high IF EJ develops than they will be fine. If they are without a QB and without a 1st they are going to need to explore veteran options (Cutler, Romo, Alex Smith, Cousins, and even Matt Ryan) are guys that I could see potentially becoming available. Their other option is to add another QB at some point in this draft and who knows that guy may develop. I would love Aaron Murray but I don't think that they should take a QB before the 4th. Edited May 9, 2014 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmur66 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 It is what it is. We got a potential great receiver that we wouldn't have got otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Prisco gave the move a C-. Hilarious. He might as well just give it an A or an F. Sammy has never played an NFL down and we have no idea who would be on the board next year in the first and 4th round when it was our turn to pick. Instant draft grades are a joke. Yep. If Watkins turns out to be D Jackson minus the gang membership and the Bills are in the playoffs in the next couple years, it validates the move. If he ends up as another punt returner who they can't develop into a reliable WR, it'll be a failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T master Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Many draft pundits claim that this trade was poorly done by the Bills and that they gave up too much to move up. The actual difference in points between #9 and #4 is {1800-1350) = 450 points. The Bills swapped the first round picks and in addition gave up the 2015 first and fourth round picks. How should we evaluate the cost for next year’s picks.? The usual assumption is that the Bills would finish the 2015 season with the same draft position, so using that criteria and the “standard assessment” of discounting next year’s picks by 50% of their value, then the Bills spend 717 points in order to move up 450 points. A bad deal. The view of Whaley is that the Bills will have a much better record next year, so the deal is not so bad. Here is the cost of next year’s 1st and 4th round picks [@ 50% discount] compared to possible draft slots that the Bills might attain next year. 2015 Finish ......……value of 1st & 4th .......................…..overpayment .......................................................overpayment in terms of a draft pick ============================================= 9…….....717…..…....267…………….top 3rd round pick 10……....691…..…....241 11……...655….....….215 12……...639….....…189………………middle 3rd round pick 13……...613……....163 14.……..587….....…137 15……...561…….....111……………..top 4th round pick 16…..….535……......85 17…..…509…….......59……………..~ middle 4th round pick 18..…….483……......33……………….middle 5th round pick 19……...470….....….20………………middle 5th round pick 20……...456…....……6……………….lower 7th round pick 21……...430…..…..-20 22…...…419……....-31 23……...408……...-42 24……..397……....-53 25……..386…....…-64 26……..375…...….-75 27….….365…….....-86 28……..354……....-96 29……..344.…….-107 30……..333..……-117 31……..323…..…-128 32……..317…….-133 So for the Bills to break even on the draft value chart, they would have to get to the #20th best record (Cardinals) with about a 10-4 record- win 6 more games. If they go 8-8 and match Pittsburg #15 spot, then the overpayment is a pick at the top of the 4th round. These are not gamebreakers- if the Bills improve their record. Another question is whether it was a good idea to give up a chance to draft an extra player in the first and third round next year. I don't think so. There's always gonna be the guys that don't think so !! Just like those that don't think we need a new stadium so let's just sit back & do the least possible till we watch the trucks taking the team to another city ! OR let's go out & grab this thing by the A** & show them what the Bills are made of !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 take a QB before the 4th. Tajh Boyd in the 4th? Get the band back together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXBILLSFAN Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Love the player, hate the trade ! That's my assessment in a nutshell. They gave up a LOT. You have to ask yourself what the Bills were looking at when they made this assessment. This is a DEEP WR class and the Bills already have Johnson, Woods, Williams and Goodwin signed and on their roster. They knew they would have had their choice of Beckham and Ebron at 9, so is the difference between those 2 players impact and Watkins worth a #1 pick ? Doubt it. While, I wouldn't have agreed, I could at least rationalize doing this for Clowney, since he was consensus BPA in draft and difference between Clowney and next best DE in draft was HUGE. Even Whaley said in post-pick presser that difference between Watkins and next WR was minimal, amazing comment when you send a 1st. This pick is out of desperation for Brandon to prove to new owner that team is a playoff caliber, he doubled down to make playoffs now and mortgage a bit of this franchise's future. I think it was too much and I question the motivation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Hurt Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I love the trade. The front office is showing me that they are willing to take a risk. What you are seeing is youth. I think most Bills fans are programmed to think old school, too conservative, and too scared to do anything bold. That is the result of watching many years of Dick Jauron, Chan Gailey, and Buddy Nix. I love the aggressiveness. I am also so sick of 7-9, 6-10 seasons. For those who complained about the lost of the first round picks, do you remember what we did with first round picks? Go look it up. If you believe in this front office, then trust the decision. If you don't believe in them, then those first round picks will turn into Maybin, Mike Williams, McGahee, Losman, etc. Make up your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 The object is to acquire players people! Not to have draft picks in the future. A lot of people have said they think this guy is the top 1 or 2 player in this draft. I also like that we didn't damage our draft this year. Draft a couple more starters today, and this team is tough looking. That's what its all about, building a team with player's. There is something almost abstract in the minds of people around draft time. We have all these picks... so therefore we will be better in the future. Cleveland has had first rounders galore, and it hasn't panned out (Richardson, Weeden). You need players! And, while there is no guarantee, you have to put your money somewhere. And, this guy is as good a bet as any IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fingon Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 The general rule is that a 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year, so no I don't think they gave up too much. I would rather have my 2nd round pick this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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