Astro-Mock: 31 Days Away

[Astrobot]

I'm making my picks a month away. The closer we get to the fire, the more the smokescreens cloud one's vision! For each round, I've added a value pick (BPA left at that pick), one that makes too much sense, one pick made looking carefully at the roster, and a just say NO pick.

 

1 9 Buffalo Eric Ebron TE North Carolina – Top need is tall red-zone playmaker. Check.

value: Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M – If a QB like Manziel or Bortles slides, consider.

sense: C.J. Mosley ILB Alabama – Long-term solution but he’s more Alonso than Spikes

sense: Anthony Barr DE43 UCLA –Bills won’t use RD1 on D, but Schwartz wants Wide-9DEs

roster: Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix FS – Waste of a top 10 pick, but you lost a Pro Bowler at S

say-no:Taylor Lewan LOT Michigan – sliding Cordy to RT/ LG not justified, Lewan a RD3 RT

 

2 41 Buffalo David Yankey OG Stanford 2nd need is LG. Check.

value: Yankey.

sense: Zack Martin OG Notre – If Yankey wasn’t there at 41, Martin can play OG/RT

roster: Shayne Skov ILB Stanford – Skov is more like Spikes than Alonso, pairs perfectly

say-no: Morgan Moses LOT Virginia – More likely LT/RG than RT/LG

 

3 73 Buffalo Carlos Hyde RBF Ohio State

value: Richardson WRF Colorado / Moncrief WRF - Both falling to 73 is amazing

sense: Hyde. FJax’s contract is up in 2015, and he’d be the thunder to Spiller’s lightning

roster: Brandon Thomas OG Clemson – If you go elsewhere in RD2 then OG here is best bet

say-no: Yawin Smallwood ILB Connecticut – a reach here, 2^nd LB not as vital in this defense

 

4 109 Buffalo Michael Sam DE43 Missouri – Falls due to coming out as gay but a fiery team guy

value: Anthony Johnson DT43 LSU – Fewer teams need DT43 this year, so he drops a round

sense: Zach Mettenberger QB LSU – Same build as EJ, less mobile, mechanics > than ‘12

roster: Joel Bitonio ROT Nevada – A great choice if RT isn’t filled earlier (or by Hairston)

say-no: De'Anthony Thomas RBC – Has ST/ WRS/ ATH potential but has no true position

 

5 149 Buffalo Michael Schofield ROT Michigan –RT compet. fopr Hairston or 2^nd DE43.

value: Lache Seastrunk RBF Baylor – Still need 2015 replacement for Spiller even if you take Hyde

sense: Ross Cockrell CB Duke – Bills have been bringing in d-backfield, Cockrell included

roster: Cody Latimer WRF Indiana – Even though 12 WRs are on roster, depth left says take 1

say-no: Tyler Larsen OC Utah State – Eric Wood has no backup or heir, but use OG on roster

 

7 224 Buffalo Cassius Marsh DE43 UCLA – Only 2 DE43’s on roster, Sam and Marsh are depth

value: Colt Lyerla TE Oregon – risk-reward is huge here, but by far the greatest value at 224

sense: Devonta Freeman RBC Florida State – best blitz pickup in the draft, decent receiver

roster: Nickoe Whitley FS Mississippi –would likely be there in UDFA

say-no: Marquis Spruill OLB43 Syracuse – Marrone knows him, backup to Rivers, but a big reach

[chris heff]

I'm starting to think Clinton-Dix.

[Kirby Jackson]

Great draft Astro!!

[boyst]

I'd like it. I ran it the other day after we got William and changed up some ratings to what I thought was more accurate. Bumped up RB, moved WR down, moved TE down one because I think we might be comfortable with who we have a but more then we realize.

 

We took Mike Evans. I think I would be fine with that because we have the opportunity to take a chance. I don't like Ebron all that much and would just as soon take Evans and keep SJ in the slot without needing an extra TE on the field.

[Manther]

I like Yankey in the 2nd! I still prefer Evans in the first. I like your options throughout the draft at RT.

[KOKBILLS]

I'm making my picks a month away. The closer we get to the fire, the more the smokescreens cloud one's vision! For each round, I've added a value pick (BPA left at that pick), one that makes too much sense, one pick made looking carefully at the roster, and a just say NO pick.

 

1 9 Buffalo Eric Ebron TE North Carolina – Top need is tall red-zone playmaker. Check.

value: Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M – If a QB like Manziel or Bortles slides, consider.

sense: C.J. Mosley ILB Alabama – Long-term solution but he’s more Alonso than Spikes

sense: Anthony Barr DE43 UCLA –Bills won’t use RD1 on D, but Schwartz wants Wide-9DEs

roster: Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix FS – Waste of a top 10 pick, but you lost a Pro Bowler at S

say-no:Taylor Lewan LOT Michigan – sliding Cordy to RT/ LG not justified, Lewan a RD3 RT

 

2 41 Buffalo David Yankey OG Stanford 2nd need is LG. Check.

value: Yankey.

sense: Zack Martin OG Notre – If Yankey wasn’t there at 41, Martin can play OG/RT

roster: Shayne Skov ILB Stanford – Skov is more like Spikes than Alonso, pairs perfectly

say-no: Morgan Moses LOT Virginia – More likely LT/RG than RT/LG

 

3 73 Buffalo Carlos Hyde RBF Ohio State

value: Richardson WRF Colorado / Moncrief WRF - Both falling to 73 is amazing

sense: Hyde. FJax’s contract is up in 2015, and he’d be the thunder to Spiller’s lightning

roster: Brandon Thomas OG Clemson – If you go elsewhere in RD2 then OG here is best bet

say-no: Yawin Smallwood ILB Connecticut – a reach here, 2^nd LB not as vital in this defense

 

4 109 Buffalo Michael Sam DE43 Missouri – Falls due to coming out as gay but a fiery team guy

value: Anthony Johnson DT43 LSU – Fewer teams need DT43 this year, so he drops a round

sense: Zach Mettenberger QB LSU – Same build as EJ, less mobile, mechanics > than ‘12

roster: Joel Bitonio ROT Nevada – A great choice if RT isn’t filled earlier (or by Hairston)

say-no: De'Anthony Thomas RBC – Has ST/ WRS/ ATH potential but has no true position

 

5 149 Buffalo Michael Schofield ROT Michigan –RT compet. fopr Hairston or 2^nd DE43.

value: Lache Seastrunk RBF Baylor – Still need 2015 replacement for Spiller even if you take Hyde

sense: Ross Cockrell CB Duke – Bills have been bringing in d-backfield, Cockrell included

roster: Cody Latimer WRF Indiana – Even though 12 WRs are on roster, depth left says take 1

say-no: Tyler Larsen OC Utah State – Eric Wood has no backup or heir, but use OG on roster

 

7 224 Buffalo Cassius Marsh DE43 UCLA – Only 2 DE43’s on roster, Sam and Marsh are depth

value: Colt Lyerla TE Oregon – risk-reward is huge here, but by far the greatest value at 224

sense: Devonta Freeman RBC Florida State – best blitz pickup in the draft, decent receiver

roster: Nickoe Whitley FS Mississippi –would likely be there in UDFA

say-no: Marquis Spruill OLB43 Syracuse – Marrone knows him, backup to Rivers, but a big reach

 

Well...

 

I can see Ebron at #9...But it depends on who went top 8...I don't think the Bills would take Ebron over the following players...Robinson, Matthews, Watkins, Evans, or Mack...And of course Clowney but he'll never be there...

 

A couple notes...Not picking on you just giving my opinion as usual...Not that you asked for it...

 

Anthony Barr is as much an NFL DE as I am right now...And I'm 5-9-185...Wide-9 or not, I don't think he's a fit at DE unless he fills out big-time...And even then I doubt it...He did 15 reps at the Combine...He's not physical enough yet to play DE...He's going to have some issues anchoring as a 3-4 OLB and that's his best fit...

 

How is LG still a need? The Bills went out and spent decent money on a LG who is a former 1st round pick? Plus...And I think this continues to get lost every single year...The Bills have an organizational philosophy...They prefer not to take OG's with premium picks...They take OT's and convert them because they feel in a pinch they need players who can fill in outside as well...So...If you're looking for an OG a player like Brandon Thomas is a much better fit for the way the Bills Draft than Yankey...Also...Martin will never slide to the 2nd...And the Bills would 100% take Moses over Yankey...

 

I don't see Michael Sam as a fit for this Defense, nor do I see him as a 4th Round prospect...IMHO he's borderline Draft-able...He's a tweener that lacks speed...He's WAY too stiff to play OLB, even in a 3-4...He's also too small and not nearly strong enough to play DE in NFL...He's the worst kind of tweener...He's all effort, but in the NFL that does not get you far...His future in the NFL depends on how well he can play ST's...

 

I like Carlos Hyde but I don't think there's any way he falls to the 3rd...I think too many teams have him as their #1 RB...

 

Anyway...

Edited April 6, 2014 by KOKBILLS

[Kellyto83TD]

I can't see guard in round 2. We addressed LG in Free agency, fans still will not seem to accept this for some reason. I say trade down in round one and get more picks if we aren't trading up to get Clowney. A DE clearly better than what we have behind Mario is needed on the other side, RT, LB, TE are the needs as well. WR has now been addressed via trade I feel.

[Beerball]

JMHO...Hyde won't be there in round 3. I'd like to have him, but I think he's gone in round 2. I think I've made my thoughts about Ebron with the 9th pick widely known so I won't go into that here. Same with Lewan.

 

If they go your way with the first pick they are almost guaranteed to take a lineman in the second (aren't they?). I'd be satisfied with any of the 3 you mention.

 

Maybe Sam becomes one of those core special teamers who gets some situational looks.

 

I'm starting to think Clinton-Dix.

I have a one word response to this nonsense.

 

Ha Ha

 

 

<edit> I do take exception to your comment about Sam sliding because he announced publicly that he is gay. His slide is due as much, if not more, to his weak combine numbers as anything else.

[Dragonborn10]

Gay or not Sam is a college player and not an NFL guy. He is too slow to play LB and too small to play DE. He doesn't even translate well into a special teams player. I think he gets drafted in the 6th or 7th round with someone's compensatory pick. Probably play Strong side OLB in a 3-4 like Green Bay or 4-3 DE with the Giants or Baltimore.

[Lt. Dan's Revenge]

Gay or not Sam is a college player and not an NFL guy. He is too slow to play LB and too small to play DE. He doesn't even translate well into a special teams player. I think he gets drafted in the 6th or 7th round with someone's compensatory pick. Probably play Strong side OLB in a 3-4 like Green Bay or 4-3 DE with the Giants or Baltimore.

 

This. I can't remember a worse football player winning SEC Defensive Player of the Year. I'm an SEC guy. He was about the 4th best player on that defense.

[Bill from NYC]

I'm starting to think Clinton-Dix.

 

As well you should be. The Bills have a long history of blowing first round picks.

[boyst]

Gay or not Sam is a college player and not an NFL guy. He is too slow to play LB and too small to play DE. He doesn't even translate well into a special teams player. I think he gets drafted in the 6th or 7th round with someone's compensatory pick. Probably play Strong side OLB in a 3-4 like Green Bay or 4-3 DE with the Giants or Baltimore.

So, the whole gay or not thing really doesn't need to be mentioned, does it?

 

JMHO...Hyde won't be there in round 3. I'd like to have him, but I think he's gone in round 2. I think I've made my thoughts about Ebron with the 9th pick widely known so I won't go into that here. Same with Lewan.

If you're going to add to your offense you're just as good trying to get ASJ in the 2nd and even Evans in the first. There is a lot of talent in this years draft but every single one of them seem to have questions marks on them. From the top to the middle of talent it is so rare to see this kind of thing. From Bortles being just a UCF guy, to Clowney being called lazy, and Mack being from Buffalo to Evans being a product of Manziel, and Lewan being overrated.

 

It doesn't seem like there are standouts in this draft and I would not be surprised to see this being called a bad draft class in 4 or 5 years.

 

I'd just as soon run the risk of drafting Evans in the first then I would Ebron. I'd like ASJ in the 2nd because we do need a TE and he has some attitude. I don't know what to do about OL and I don't want to draft a LT to play RT.

 

As well you should be. The Bills have a long history of blowing first round picks.

oh my gosh, in this thread with a name already being mentioned that statement could really be run with...but I will refrain, Beerball is lurking

[billsfan89]

I'm making my picks a month away. The closer we get to the fire, the more the smokescreens cloud one's vision! For each round, I've added a value pick (BPA left at that pick), one that makes too much sense, one pick made looking carefully at the roster, and a just say NO pick.

 

1 9 Buffalo Eric Ebron TE North Carolina – Top need is tall red-zone playmaker. Check.

value: Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M – If a QB like Manziel or Bortles slides, consider.

sense: C.J. Mosley ILB Alabama – Long-term solution but he’s more Alonso than Spikes

sense: Anthony Barr DE43 UCLA –Bills won’t use RD1 on D, but Schwartz wants Wide-9DEs

roster: Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix FS – Waste of a top 10 pick, but you lost a Pro Bowler at S

say-no:Taylor Lewan LOT Michigan – sliding Cordy to RT/ LG not justified, Lewan a RD3 RT

 

2 41 Buffalo David Yankey OG Stanford 2nd need is LG. Check.

value: Yankey.

sense: Zack Martin OG Notre – If Yankey wasn’t there at 41, Martin can play OG/RT

roster: Shayne Skov ILB Stanford – Skov is more like Spikes than Alonso, pairs perfectly

say-no: Morgan Moses LOT Virginia – More likely LT/RG than RT/LG

 

3 73 Buffalo Carlos Hyde RBF Ohio State

value: Richardson WRF Colorado / Moncrief WRF - Both falling to 73 is amazing

sense: Hyde. FJax’s contract is up in 2015, and he’d be the thunder to Spiller’s lightning

roster: Brandon Thomas OG Clemson – If you go elsewhere in RD2 then OG here is best bet

say-no: Yawin Smallwood ILB Connecticut – a reach here, 2^nd LB not as vital in this defense

 

4 109 Buffalo Michael Sam DE43 Missouri – Falls due to coming out as gay but a fiery team guy

value: Anthony Johnson DT43 LSU – Fewer teams need DT43 this year, so he drops a round

sense: Zach Mettenberger QB LSU – Same build as EJ, less mobile, mechanics > than ‘12

roster: Joel Bitonio ROT Nevada – A great choice if RT isn’t filled earlier (or by Hairston)

say-no: De'Anthony Thomas RBC – Has ST/ WRS/ ATH potential but has no true position

 

5 149 Buffalo Michael Schofield ROT Michigan –RT compet. fopr Hairston or 2^nd DE43.

value: Lache Seastrunk RBF Baylor – Still need 2015 replacement for Spiller even if you take Hyde

sense: Ross Cockrell CB Duke – Bills have been bringing in d-backfield, Cockrell included

roster: Cody Latimer WRF Indiana – Even though 12 WRs are on roster, depth left says take 1

say-no: Tyler Larsen OC Utah State – Eric Wood has no backup or heir, but use OG on roster

 

7 224 Buffalo Cassius Marsh DE43 UCLA – Only 2 DE43’s on roster, Sam and Marsh are depth

value: Colt Lyerla TE Oregon – risk-reward is huge here, but by far the greatest value at 224

sense: Devonta Freeman RBC Florida State – best blitz pickup in the draft, decent receiver

roster: Nickoe Whitley FS Mississippi –would likely be there in UDFA

say-no: Marquis Spruill OLB43 Syracuse – Marrone knows him, backup to Rivers, but a big reach

 

The first two picks are good fills up some needs on offense, although I think with the Willams signing we might not be looking at a guard but at a RT in round two. Only pick I have an issue with is round 3 going after a RB. A DE, RT, FS, or LB would make more sense there.

[boyst]

The first two picks are good fills up some needs on offense, although I think with the Willams signing we might not be looking at a guard but at a RT in round two. Only pick I have an issue with is round 3 going after a RB. A DE, RT, FS, or LB would make more sense there.

I would have agreed with you a month or two ago. But, RB makes a lot of sense - at least to this team. Now that is has been mentioned we looked at getting Chris Johnson and we have added some RB's to the roster I think the team wants to get some future planning in development. Carlos Hyde is just that. He reminds me of Alfred Morris (though, I am not a big fan of Morris'). He is similar to Fred Jackson with heart and is able to move the ball across the field in any direction - most importantly forward. He is going to be a solid back in this league.

 

As for DE - I don't know what DE's are really out there right now behind Clowney because that's all you ever hear about. I would just as soon wait for a camp cut to find someone like Dwan Edwards was for us many years ago.

[thebandit27]

 

 

As well you should be. The Bills have a long history of blowing first round picks.

 

I'm shocked to see you say this!

 

Would you mind going on record right now with a player or list of players you wouldn't hate as 1st round picks?

[Astrobot]

Are you talking about 2012 Barr or 2013 Barr? Loved what I saw from Barr on a great line in 2012, but Ealy swallowed him whole in 2013. As new to the position as Barr was, and given the raw skillset Barr has, I thought we would see a little more than we did in 2013. Remember Ansah, though. Josh Norris and Dane Brugler still have Barr going in the first round. I think he'll end up going late in the first or by mid-2nd, when risk-reward starts playing a factor, and Barr will be selected by #46. Barr will go as early as the Cowboys at #16 or else freefall to #40 (Vikings), #41 (Bills) #42 (Titans), #45 (Lions), or #46 (Steelers).

[Astrobot]

The first two picks are good fills up some needs on offense, although I think with the Willams signing we might not be looking at a guard but at a RT in round two. Only pick I have an issue with is round 3 going after a RB. A DE, RT, FS, or LB would make more sense there.

I disagree about RT in RD2. Hairston's healthy and he was a very good RT before his injury. DE makes some sense as there are only 2 on roster. If we take FS I will kill myself; we need 2 playmakers from the first 3 picks or we're going nowhere.

 

I would have agreed with you a month or two ago. But, RB makes a lot of sense - at least to this team. Now that is has been mentioned we looked at getting Chris Johnson and we have added some RB's to the roster I think the team wants to get some future planning in development. Carlos Hyde is just that. He reminds me of Alfred Morris (though, I am not a big fan of Morris'). He is similar to Fred Jackson with heart and is able to move the ball across the field in any direction - most importantly forward. He is going to be a solid back in this league.

Exactly.

In 2015 and you don't have Spiller or Jackson on this team you'll be glad you drafted Hyde and Seastrunk, or Sankey and Hill, or whatever combination, in what was supposed to be a "bad draft for RBs" or "the league is a passing league". In late November or December, especially.

[Coach Tuesday]

They are gonna pick a corner and a RB, probably one of each in the first four rounds... sorry to say it but it's going to happen.

[boyst]

Exactly.

In 2015 and you don't have Spiller or Jackson on this team you'll be glad you drafted Hyde and Seastrunk, or Sankey and Hill, or whatever combination, in what was supposed to be a "bad draft for RBs" or "the league is a passing league". In late November or December, especially.

But, you can also add that you will be happy they draft _____ and _____ in 2015. Because, the way the RB's are playing now there is a good chance we could snatch one next year that'd contribute, too.

 

If we continue to set our team and fill our needs we do not need to worry about how to use our draft picks and will be able to go BPA thru 3 rounds. That'd be awesome and we're nearly to that point.

[John from Riverside]

The Carlos Hyde pick is interesting.....and believable.

 

I am starting to think CJ Spiller is not the back Marrone wants for this offense regardless of what happens with Fred Jackson after this year....

 

Marrone wants to run effectively between the tackles