TPS Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 for my failed economic theories... Based on my ignorant views (at least according to my many fans here--Magox, Tasker, 3rd, et al), back in January I predicted the economy was going to finally pick up during the second half of the year (so far, 3.6% in Q3), at least until after the tax increases (Payroll and ACA) and sequester spending cuts had their way in the first half. Based on that prediction, I went 100% equities, mostly small and mid cap funds (2/3), the rest in emerging markets, income-growth, and resources. Yesterday put me over 30% for the year. I'd like to thank the Fed, John Maynard Keynes, and Hyman Minsky. I hope the gold bugs, ObamaScarers, and deficit fear mongers did as well... Cheers to another good year (at least for the first half) in 2014! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koko78 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Cool story, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 for my failed economic theories... Based on my ignorant views (at least according to my many fans here--Magox, Tasker, 3rd, et al), back in January I predicted the economy was going to finally pick up during the second half of the year (so far, 3.6% in Q3), at least until after the tax increases (Payroll and ACA) and sequester spending cuts had their way in the first half. Based on that prediction, I went 100% equities, mostly small and mid cap funds (2/3), the rest in emerging markets, income-growth, and resources. Yesterday put me over 30% for the year. I'd like to thank the Fed, John Maynard Keynes, and Hyman Minsky. I hope the gold bugs, ObamaScarers, and deficit fear mongers did as well... Cheers to another good year (at least for the first half) in 2014! This story would have been more appropriate in 2010 if there was competence on Pennsylvania Avenue. Finally hitting a 3.5% growth rate six years after the crisis is like getting excited over drafting JP Losman. Just think of all that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 this assumes there's some connection betwen wall st and main st. i don't think there is. this am herbalife is up 1% and gnc is flat, 1 day after the entire basis for their existence was buried. house of cards, smoke and mirrors etc...whatever you want to call it, the market is often not based on truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 this assumes there's some connection betwen wall st and main st. i don't think there is. this am herbalife is up 1% and gnc is flat, 1 day after the entire basis for their existence was buried. house of cards, smoke and mirrors etc...whatever you want to call it, the market is often not based on truth Please, please stop offering commentary about the stock market. I don't offer medical commentary, so you should do likewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Please, please stop offering commentary about the stock market. I don't offer medical commentary, so you should do likewise. wanna explain to me this observation? how can that be rationalized? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 wanna explain to me this observation? how can that be rationalized? Because I don't offer observations on medicine since I'm not qualified to do so, even though I read about it in the papers & magazines. Yet that doesn't stop you from making observations about the stock market, despite the obvious proof that you have little understanding of what you read. Case in point, the scientific studies about supplements' efficacy are not a perfect correlation to Herbalife's and DNC's business models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 for my failed economic theories... Based on my ignorant views (at least according to my many fans here--Magox, Tasker, 3rd, et al), back in January I predicted the economy was going to finally pick up during the second half of the year (so far, 3.6% in Q3), at least until after the tax increases (Payroll and ACA) and sequester spending cuts had their way in the first half. Based on that prediction, I went 100% equities, mostly small and mid cap funds (2/3), the rest in emerging markets, income-growth, and resources. Yesterday put me over 30% for the year. I'd like to thank the Fed, John Maynard Keynes, and Hyman Minsky. I hope the gold bugs, ObamaScarers, and deficit fear mongers did as well... Cheers to another good year (at least for the first half) in 2014! What stopped you from doing 30% last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Because I don't offer observations on medicine since I'm not qualified to do so, even though I read about it in the papers & magazines. Yet that doesn't stop you from making observations about the stock market, despite the obvious proof that you have little understanding of what you read. Case in point, the scientific studies about supplements' efficacy are not a perfect correlation to Herbalife's and DNC's business models. the studies are absolutely, directly correlated to both of those companies business models. perhaps what you mean to say is that deception is their predominant business model. that may be true but a statement from a highly respected medical journal calling for an end to the use of almost all of their products by almost everyone would be expected to have a significant impact on sales and therefore profits, no? do you really need an mba to analyze that? yet, the stock market yawns. traders were much more excited about the shenanigans of the masters of the universe playing around with herbalife's power structure than in the fundamentals of the business. smoke and mirrors... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Miner Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 for my failed economic theories... Based on my ignorant views (at least according to my many fans here--Magox, Tasker, 3rd, et al), back in January I predicted the economy was going to finally pick up during the second half of the year (so far, 3.6% in Q3), at least until after the tax increases (Payroll and ACA) and sequester spending cuts had their way in the first half. Based on that prediction, I went 100% equities, mostly small and mid cap funds (2/3), the rest in emerging markets, income-growth, and resources. Yesterday put me over 30% for the year. I'd like to thank the Fed, John Maynard Keynes, and Hyman Minsky. I hope the gold bugs, ObamaScarers, and deficit fear mongers did as well... Cheers to another good year (at least for the first half) in 2014! You're supposed to be some kind of economics professor, and you believe your economic views allowed you to have a successful year in the stock market? So are your economic views invalid if someone with opposite views had a higher return than you? I pity your students. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 for my failed economic theories... Based on my ignorant views (at least according to my many fans here--Magox, Tasker, 3rd, et al), back in January I predicted the economy was going to finally pick up during the second half of the year (so far, 3.6% in Q3), at least until after the tax increases (Payroll and ACA) and sequester spending cuts had their way in the first half. Based on that prediction, I went 100% equities, mostly small and mid cap funds (2/3), the rest in emerging markets, income-growth, and resources. Yesterday put me over 30% for the year. I'd like to thank the Fed, John Maynard Keynes, and Hyman Minsky. I hope the gold bugs, ObamaScarers, and deficit fear mongers did as well... Cheers to another good year (at least for the first half) in 2014! Awesome job man! I'm around 19% for the last two years, including dividends, but I'll take it. This story would have been more appropriate in 2010 if there was competence on Pennsylvania Avenue. Finally hitting a 3.5% growth rate six years after the crisis is like getting excited over drafting JP Losman. Just think of all that potential. What could a different President had done better that would have allowed us to swoop out of the Great Recession with a gallop? Could another President have gotten housing prices to rise in 2010? I suspect you don't know very much at all and just spew partisan gibberish and consider it some how to be fact, but I'd still like to read what you got Mr. Shake Down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 the studies are absolutely, directly correlated to both of those companies business models. perhaps what you mean to say is that deception is their predominant business model. that may be true but a statement from a highly respected medical journal calling for an end to the use of almost all of their products by almost everyone would be expected to have a significant impact on sales and therefore profits, no? do you really need an mba to analyze that? yet, the stock market yawns. traders were much more excited about the shenanigans of the masters of the universe playing around with herbalife's power structure than in the fundamentals of the business. smoke and mirrors... These companies are selling a product that their customers believe helps them. It may be a placebo, but an effective placebo. It's the customers' desire to buy their products, and as long as they're not harmful, then more power to them to cater to the Pt Barnum crowd. And if I were you I wouldn't throw out deceptive marketing practices on a willy nilly basis. You are still a Buffalo Bills fan, right? Who's the bigger fool, the guy who buys a $10 vitamin bottle or a life long Ralph Wilson customer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Awesome job man! I'm around 19% for the last two years, including dividends, but I'll take it. What could a different President had done better that would have allowed us to swoop out of the Great Recession with a gallop? Could another President have gotten housing prices to rise in 2010? I suspect you don't know very much at all and just spew partisan gibberish and consider it some how to be fact, but I'd still like to read what you got Mr. Shake Down A different president could have done nothing and it would have been much more effective than what the sitting president did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 These companies are selling a product that their customers believe helps them. It may be a placebo, but an effective placebo. It's the customers' desire to buy their products, and as long as they're not harmful, then more power to them to cater to the Pt Barnum crowd. And if I were you I wouldn't throw out deceptive marketing practices on a willy nilly basis. You are still a Buffalo Bills fan, right? Who's the bigger fool, the guy who buys a $10 vitamin bottle or a life long Ralph Wilson customer? different argument on the question of the bigger fool.i get that many of the people buying their products aren't reading the annals. but some are. and this story has made the national media's A list. it's going to have a measurable negative effect. that's not being reflected in the market and that's far from unique. there are certainly financial experts that argue that market manipulation is very prevelant and fundamentals are becoming less important. that's my point and it's far from novel.i go out of my way to avoid adding to wilson's coffers. i'm sure he got a piece of my sunday ticket purchase indirectly but that is a necessary evil expended for nostalgia. tradition and rituals are imnportant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 What could a different President had done better that would have allowed us to swoop out of the Great Recession with a gallop? Could another President have gotten housing prices to rise in 2010? What exact policies of the sitting President have had a direct effect on housing prices? Be specific. different argument on the question of the bigger fool.i get that many of the people buying their products aren't reading the annals. /Irony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 why isn't every retail investor screaming about stuff like this? - http://www.thestreet.com/story/12158776/1/bill-ackmans-herbalife-tumble-continues.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO. this is exactly why the fundamentals don't much matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TakeYouToTasker Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 My portfolio has grown 52% YTD. Bubbles have a tendency to lead to things like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 This story would have been more appropriate in 2010 if there was competence on Pennsylvania Avenue. Finally hitting a 3.5% growth rate six years after the crisis is like getting excited over drafting JP Losman. Just think of all that potential. i can try to dig up my analysis for 2010, if you are interested. My analysis this year had very little to do with politics, other than the the impact on the first half from contraction army policies. I'd certainly be interested to know who else went 100% into equities this year and why? I'm sure Tasker is sitting on his gold investments waiting for hyperinflation... My portfolio has grown 52% YTD. Bubbles have a tendency to lead to things like that. speak of the devil, pray tell, what investments generated you lofty performance? I didn't think gold had a good year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 i can try to dig up my analysis for 2010, if you are interested. My analysis this year had very little to do with politics, other than the the impact on the first half from contraction army policies. I'd certainly be interested to know who else went 100% into equities this year and why? I'm sure Tasker is sitting on his gold investments waiting for hyperinflation... And I can dig up my analysis from 2008 of why the real estate market would recover in 2012, and my 2010 amendment to it when I moved the recovery date to late summer 2013. So what? Doesn't make Keynes right. And has ****-all to do with Obama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 You're supposed to be some kind of economics professor, and you believe your economic views allowed you to have a successful year in the stock market? So are your economic views invalid if someone with opposite views had a higher return than you? I pity your students. I assume you must know a little about investing? The market leads economic activity, usually. Based on my prediction about a stronger second half, which was based on the way I view macroeconomics, I weighted my portfolio 100% equities. It's as simple as that. On the other side, I know a lot of money managers who were no more than 50% into equities this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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