It's been a very good year...

[TakeYouToTasker]

i can try to dig up my analysis for 2010, if you are interested. My analysis this year had very little to do with politics, other than the the impact on the first half from contraction army policies. I'd certainly be interested to know who else went 100% into equities this year and why? I'm sure Tasker is sitting on his gold investments waiting for hyperinflation...

 

speak of the devil, pray tell, what investments generated you lofty performance? I didn't think gold had a good year...

Why wouldn't I take advantage of the business cycle?

 

Your theories are phenomenal for increasing my own personal wealth, but lousy for those who are less savy, whose paper gains will evaporate when this bubble busts, and will sell in a panic, reliquishing their retirements for pennies on the dollar, while people like me are buying up a storm.

[TPS]

 

 

And I can dig up my analysis from 2008 of why the real estate market would recover in 2012, and my 2010 amendment to it when I moved the recovery date to late summer 2013.

 

So what? Doesn't make Keynes right. And has ****-all to do with Obama.

the only one bringing Obama into this is you (and GG).

 

 

Why wouldn't I take advantage of the business cycle?

 

Your theories are phenomenal for increasing my own personal wealth, but lousy for those who are less savy, whose paper gains will evaporate when this bubble busts, and will sell in a panic, reliquishing their retirements for pennies on the dollar, while people like me are buying up a storm.

care to tell us when the bubble will bust?

[DC Tom]

the only one bringing Obama into this is you (and GG).

 

Sorry, I thought you were bringing Obama into it when you mentioned Obama.

[Joe Miner]

I assume you must know a little about investing? The market leads economic activity, usually. Based on my prediction about a stronger second half, which was based on the way I view macroeconomics, I weighted my portfolio 100% equities. It's as simple as that. On the other side, I know a lot of money managers who were no more than 50% into equities this year.

 

So?

 

How does you having a good year in the market lead to a validity of your economic beliefs?

 

People with different economic beliefs can have just as good or even better years than you. Does that make their beliefs more valid than yours?

[Jauronimo]

Putting together a macro outlook and then picking asset classes (not even sectors) isn't exactly what I would call investing, but I'm happy for all your successes.

 

~2.5 year CAGR of 30%, 35% YTD 2013. I must be a genius with the way I'm churning out 30% since I began actively investing. Or maybe you can't really miss in the current market. A 30% return beats the DJIA by 4%, and exceeds S&P 500 performance by 6.5% for the year. Every !@#$ with a major index tracking ETF is killing it in 2013.

Edited December 19, 2013 by Jauronimo

[Tiberius]

What exact policies of the sitting President have had a direct effect on housing prices? Be specific.

 

I don't think any President could have really of done anything major about housing prices. That's my point. GG acting like someone could is just silly anti-Obama madness.

[TPS]

 

 

Sorry, I thought you were bringing Obama into it when you mentioned Obama.

I mentioned obamascare in a list of "things" associated with people who argued those things would harm the economy. As GG said, if I wanted to bring O into it, I would've done so in 2010 when he could've done some things to get us out of this mess a little quicker.

[DC Tom]

I mentioned obamascare in a list of "things" associated with people who argued those things would harm the economy. As GG said, if I wanted to bring O into it, I would've done so in 2010 when he could've done some things to get us out of this mess a little quicker.

 

And that had nothing to do with Obama. Okay.

[TPS]

Putting together a macro outlook and then picking asset classes (not even sectors) isn't exactly what I would call investing, but I'm happy for all your successes.

 

~2.5 year CAGR of 30%, 35% YTD 2013. I must be a genius with the way I'm churning out 30% since I began actively investing. Or maybe you can't really miss in the current market. A 30% return beats the DJIA by 4%, and exceeds S&P 500 performance by 6.5% for the year. Every !@#$ with a major index tracking ETF is killing it in 2013.

only if you are 100% equities, which is my point. I'd be curious to know how many went all in this year? And why?

 

 

 

 

And that had nothing to do with Obama. Okay.

of course. It seems that some were trying to infer that my post was somehow supporting O; it wasn't.

[Jauronimo]

When you pass hastily crafted legislation that intends to fundamentally change the cost of doing business in this country and the final form and effects of which remain to be seen until years down the road, you just might put a damper on economic growth. Something about uncertainty and corporate planning. Doing something like this at trough of a recession probably isn't a good idea.

Edited December 19, 2013 by Jauronimo

[TakeYouToTasker]

care to tell us when the bubble will bust?

It would be educated speculation, but it's proprietary regardless.

[DC Tom]

only if you are 100% equities, which is my point. I'd be curious to know how many went all in this year? And why?

 

 

of course. It seems that some were trying to infer that my post was somehow supporting O; it wasn't.

 

Ah. "I didn't imply, you inferred." Typical Obama argument.

[TPS]

When you pass hastily crafted legislation that intends to fundamentally change the cost of doing business in this country and the final form and effects of which remain to be seen until years down the road, you just might put a damper on economic growth. Something about uncertainty and corporate planning. Doing something like this at trough of a recession probably isn't a good idea.

possibly. When I make my (annual) prediction about the economy, I weigh the positives against the negatives. I saw negatives restraining things in the first half, then the underlying positives taking hold in the second. I weight my portfolio accordingly. I try to make above market gains by market timing. Maybe that isn't what you call investing, but I gave up more risky type investing 10 years or so ago.

 

 

 

Ah. "I didn't imply, you inferred." Typical Obama argument.

ok, you got me. It was a total pro-Obama post. Long live the king!

 

 

It would be educated speculation, but it's proprietary regardless.

ah, yes, proprietary... I see...

[Jauronimo]

possibly. When I make my (annual) prediction about the economy, I weigh the positives against the negatives. I saw negatives restraining things in the first half, then the underlying positives taking hold in the second. I weight my portfolio accordingly. I try to make above market gains by market timing. Maybe that isn't what you call investing, but I gave up more risky type investing 10 years or so ago.

I'm not talking about growth in 2013. I'm talking about why it took until 2013 for our economy to gain real traction. When gatorman and others ask what could anyone else have done differently, they fail to account for the president's pet project. Once you introduce that level of uncertainty to the game, there wasn't much he or anyone else could have done. The private sector took a wait and see approach.

 

How do you make above market gains by redistributing your portfolio among asset classes? When discussing market gains don't you compare asset class returns against appropriate asset class benchmarks? Is there a "market portfolio" invested across equities, fixed income, commodities and alt assets which you compare your performance to?

[GG]

only if you are 100% equities, which is my point. I'd be curious to know how many went all in this year? And why?

 

I'll take, "Any fund manager who was awake in Sept 2012 and saw the immediate effect that the bond buying program had on the high yield market." for $1,000 Alex.

 

And as for the implied vs inferred, absolutely Obama had an effect on the slow growth over the last 5 years. Maybe not him personally, which it never is, but the people he put in charge of key cabinet posts and the agenda they pursued held back the recovery. That and the uncertainty the indian refers to is what kept growth below 2.5%. Why make money the old fashioned way, when Obama & Bernanke help juice up profits below the EBITDA lines?

[TakeYouToTasker]

ah, yes, proprietary... I see...

Quite. My contract prohibits it.

[TPS]

 

 

I'll take, "Any fund manager who was awake in Sept 2012 and saw the immediate effect that the bond buying program had on the high yield market." for $1,000 Alex.

 

And as for the implied vs inferred, absolutely Obama had an effect on the slow growth over the last 5 years. Maybe not him personally, which it never is, but the people he put in charge of key cabinet posts and the agenda they pursued held back the recovery. That and the uncertainty the indian refers to is what kept growth below 2.5%. Why make money the old fashioned way, when Obama & Bernanke help juice up profits below the EBITDA lines?

if you believe Rogoff & Reinhart, i linked a paper here a few years ago in which they looked at recessions and recoveries in relation to private sector debt build up in the preceding expansions. Excessive debt build up takes longer to unwind and recover from, 4 years on average according to their study. Richard Koo from Nomura securities also argued this was a balance sheet recession, and it's taken years for the household sector to deleverage. The policy that would've been most effective would be to write down household debt faster. But only finance and important corporations get bailouts...

[GG]

if you believe Rogoff & Reinhart, i linked a paper here a few years ago in which they looked at recessions and recoveries in relation to private sector debt build up in the preceding expansions. Excessive debt build up takes longer to unwind and recover from, 4 years on average according to their study. Richard Koo from Nomura securities also argued this was a balance sheet recession, and it's taken years for the household sector to deleverage. The policy that would've been most effective would be to write down household debt faster. But only finance and important corporations get bailouts...

 

And household debt was tied up in the homes, and the bottoming out of which was delayed by the witch hunt and efforts to artificially prop up mortgages and delay foreclosures.

[Tiberius]

Why wouldn't I take advantage of the business cycle?

 

Your theories are phenomenal for increasing my own personal wealth, but lousy for those who are less savy, whose paper gains will evaporate when this bubble busts, and will sell in a panic, reliquishing their retirements for pennies on the dollar, while people like me are buying up a storm.

 

So are you hoarding cash now waiting for the panic to begin so you can accomplish this?

[boyst]

Cool story, bro.