bobobonators Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 (edited) Could not disagree more. The league is not about setting trends in order to succeed. It is about understanding the rules and exploiting them. The NFL's rules have evolved to a point where it has become far easier to gain 5 yards through the air than on the ground. The teams that succeed do that the best. All you need do is look at the teams that run the ball for the most yardage and you will see that is almost an anti-barometer for success. Having a good ground game as a secondary feature is a great thing to have, but make no mistake that it is a primary. If the rules change to make it better for defensing the passing game, it will be time to switch strategies. Until then it is suicide. I agree. However, just an interesting note. I looked at the current top 16 teams in the NFL by W/L record (the "better half") and out of those top 16 teams (Hawks/Broncos/Panthers/Chiefs/Patriots/Saints/Bengals/Colts/49ers/Cardinals/Cowboys/Lions/Eagles/Ravens/Bears/Dolphins), 9 of these 16 were in the top 16 in the NFL for passing yards/game, compared to 8 of these 16 being in the top 16 in the NFL for rushing yards/game. Advantage teams with more passing yards/game, but only by one team. Furthermore, out of the two categories, "top 16 rushing yards/game" and "top 16 passing yards/game", 7 of the 16 teams in the top 16 for passing yds/game were below .500 compared to 8 of the 16 teams in the top 16 for rushhing yards/game being below .500. Advantage teams with more passing yards/game, but again, only by one team. There are countless factors that determine these stats and stats can sometimes be skewed any which way to make or break an argument. That being said, I expected a slightly greater advantage for teams with more passing yards/game than for teams with more rushing yards/game. Anomalies: There are 3 teams that make the top 16 in both categories and are still having poor seasons. 1. The Redskins rank 1st in rushing yards/game and top 16 in Passing yds/game (16th) and are among the league's worst in the NFL at 3-9. Reason: Defense is horrible ranking 2nd to last in pts/game. 2. The Packers rank 8th in rushing yards/game and 7th in passing yards/game and are below .500 at 5-6-1. Reason: Losing their starting QB. 3. The Texans rank 16th in rushing yards/game and 11th in passing yards/game and have the NFL's worst record at 2-11. Reason: Entire team is having an atrocious season, finding ways to lose; defense giving up close to 27pts/game. After all that nonsense, I guess the moral of the story: balance is key and stats are overrated. At the end of the day, score more points than your opponent: Of the teams in the top 16 in the NFL in W/L%, only one team has not scored more points than their opponents: the Bears at -9. So 15/16 are in the positive in Net points. Of the bottom 16 teams in the NFL in W/L%, only 2 teams have scored more points than their opponents: the Chargers (+2) and the Rams (+1). So 2/16 teams in bottom 16 are in the positive in Net points. Bills are at -40. :w00t: Edited December 7, 2013 by bobobonators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Could not disagree more. The league is not about setting trends in order to succeed. It is about understanding the rules and exploiting them. The NFL's rules have evolved to a point where it has become far easier to gain 5 yards through the air than on the ground. The teams that succeed do that the best. All you need do is look at the teams that run the ball for the most yardage and you will see that is almost an anti-barometer for success. Having a good ground game as a secondary feature is a great thing to have, but make no mistake that it is a primary. If the rules change to make it better for defensing the passing game, it will be time to switch strategies. Until then it is suicide. Apparently you missed my post One of the most difficult things to do in the NFL is find that "elite" QB like Brady, Brees, Manning. Sometimes it can take years, and years to find one of those players, along with a bunch of 1st round picks. The Texans will probably be spending that #1 overall on a QB just like they did back in 2002 with David Carr. Then they have spent the last 6 years trying to make a 3rd round QB work, and got to 12-4 last season. It is far easier to build a dominate running game, and a top O line. That top O line can almost make any decent QB work out OK, JMO http://mmqb.si.com/2013/10/04/pass-rush-balance-notes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUNCH OF MULARKEY Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Well seems overwhelmingly that a stud tight end is on everyone's wish list, myself included. With the signing of moiaki we now have four tight ends on the roster. I like how they are taking a flyer with this kid, I'm interested in seeing how he looks these last four games.What if he looks great and we can spend our early round pick elsewhere, that would be wonderful.Makes me wonder why gragg and lee smith are still here, perhaps their role on special teams? I really think we need a big tall physical wide receiver. We all know how Hackett keeps trying those little fades around the goal line and I just don't think our little fast wr's are really suited for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Everyone ready for the official excuse for EJ Manuel next year. Sophomore Slump Better than having a rookie slump like some people. Come on, both those guys are good. Best ever? Not so fast Graham- 3rd round pick Gronk- 2nd round pick. Point is you have to find these guys. Easy? Nope. But the Bills need to address TE once and for all and stop with the cast off's. I thought you had to buy these guys at a special store? Anyways according to some here, the best way to help EJ is to continue to draft O-linemen in the first round. Seriously though, weapons do matter as JR knows. Brady is an interesting case because he won a Super Bowl with Givens, Patten, and other no names. However earlier this year when missing Gronk, Amendola, and Vereen, he was playing the worst football of his career. So yes, weapons do matter especially when injuries force you to throw to 2 rookie wideouts (Dobson and Thompkins). As a corollary, please remember that very few rookie wideouts make significant contributions (cue those who will bring up the exceptions as the rule). As far as EJ's accuracy, I reject those who say he's not accurate. Yes, he needs to work on his LONG ACCURACY which is a function of him improving his mechanics. But his short and medium accuracy are excellent for the most part and most of the misfires he's had are a function of missing 2 weeks of preseason, 5 weeks of the regular season, and regularly throwing to, wait for it, 2 rookie wideouts. EJ's made accurate downfield throws that Fitz couldn't make in his most glorious dreams. In addition, EJ was a 67% passer in college with an astronomical yards per attempt of 8.6. There are only two ways of having a yards per attempt that high: 1) Completing a high percentage of passes (every incompletion lowers that metric) 2) Making chunk yardage downfield EJ is a natural thrower who hasn't yet sighted-in his gun. But he's generally an accurate thrower whose accuracy will improve. Disagree with me but mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Section242 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Perhaps you overestimate how average 2nd and 3rd tier WR's are in this league. If Chris Hogan can spend 3 years in the NFL then TJ Graham can spend at least double that. I think Hogan was only a practice squad member before making the Bills this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Better than having a rookie slump like some people. I thought you had to buy these guys at a special store? Anyways according to some here, the best way to help EJ is to continue to draft O-linemen in the first round. Seriously though, weapons do matter as JR knows. Brady is an interesting case because he won a Super Bowl with Givens, Patten, and other no names. However earlier this year when missing Gronk, Amendola, and Vereen, he was playing the worst football of his career. So yes, weapons do matter especially when injuries force you to throw to 2 rookie wideouts (Dobson and Thompkins). As a corollary, please remember that very few rookie wideouts make significant contributions (cue those who will bring up the exceptions as the rule). As far as EJ's accuracy, I reject those who say he's not accurate. Yes, he needs to work on his LONG ACCURACY which is a function of him improving his mechanics. But his short and medium accuracy are excellent for the most part and most of the misfires he's had are a function of missing 2 weeks of preseason, 5 weeks of the regular season, and regularly throwing to, wait for it, 2 rookie wideouts. EJ's made accurate downfield throws that Fitz couldn't make in his most glorious dreams. In addition, EJ was a 67% passer in college with an astronomical yards per attempt of 8.6. There are only two ways of having a yards per attempt that high: 1) Completing a high percentage of passes (every incompletion lowers that metric) 2) Making chunk yardage downfield EJ is a natural thrower who hasn't yet sighted-in his gun. But he's generally an accurate thrower whose accuracy will improve. Disagree with me but mark my words. Like always, a great post. I love Goodwin but what if 6'5" Mike Evans is running those deep throws instead of 5'7" Goodwin against Atlanta? The best thing I've seen out of EJ the last 2 weeks is taking more deep shots. For some reason, some folks think you're supposed to complete 100% of them. If anyone can dig up the stats on throws over 20 yards, I'd love to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webster Guy Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Invent time machine. Draft AJ Green instead of Dareus. Manuel gets to pro bowl just like Dalton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Invent time machine. Draft AJ Green instead of Dareus. Manuel gets to pro bowl just like Dalton. This one is a tough one. Obviously, it was easy after the first 2 years. But Dareus has been a borderline pro bowler this year and our defense was terrible when we drafted him. But AJ might be the second best wr in football. And I like our chances of completing deep balls to Green over Graham and Goodwin. Tough question though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALLEN1QB Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 TE a must and long overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 TE a must and long overdue. Agreed. Plus where we'll be drafting we'll be in a position to get the best TE in the draft. Players like AJ, calvin johnson, a. johnson etc require having a top 5 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Another way I also look at the Bills situation is as follows: I would rather invest in the offense in the immediate future b/c I feel the fate of this Franchise for the next 5 years is clearly on EJ's shoulders and not the defense. I want to give EJ every possible chance to succeed in the NFL. I want to give EJ an embarrassment of riches and targets galore. I want EJ's confidence to be sky-high in order to secure a place among the better QB's in this league. The success of EJ offensively will ultimately come with wins for the team, regardless of what the defense does. Sure, we won't be a complete team without a good defense....but i'd rather have my QB situation working than worrying about who my MLB or DE is. Not true! A game manager at QB and a dominating defense will win championships! Ask the Ravens, Chicago'85! Invent time machine. Draft AJ Green instead of Dareus. Manuel gets to pro bowl just like Dalton. Is it really about EJ getting to Pro Bowls or is it to win championships? Not saying EJ Is a game manager at QB, but a dominating defense will cure the ills of any upcoming QB in the NFL. It will allow said QB to make mistakes and learn knowing that the defense will suffocate opposing offenses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Tell that to Andrew luck who can't get a 1st down anymore after Reggie Wayne went down. Weapons do matter. I am with you. I can't believe the argument is even being made that weapons don't matter. A very few truly Hall of Fame QBs can still excel with lesser weapons, but those QBs are RARE and they would be even better with very good receivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackInDaDay Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 i'll be honest, those FSU stats look pretty impressive, but they don't jive with what i'm seeing with the Bills - at least, not yet. that's why i think that a physical receiver - who can beat his man off the los and make plays on less than perfect passes is a must for EJ. even with adequate protection, some of his throws have been real head-scratchers. i'm not saying he can't be an accurate passer, only that he may never be a consistently accurate passer - and that's ok, because he can make all the throws, and no DC can base his defensive gameplan on the assumption that he'll miss every time. the league has more guys like EJ, than not.. and not many have the physical tools to keep plays alive which #3 has. there's not a single QB who isn't more accurate when he has the chance to set his feet and fire, and nothing gets that done better than a well executed drop back from center where the ball comes out as soon as that back foot is planted.. but even if the QB's mechanics on a drop&toss are sound, the timing of the play breaks down if the receivers can't get into their patterns quickly. has Hackett seen too many instances of EJ setting up and waiting for his receivers to get to their spots? maybe that's why he prefers him in the shotgun(pistol) formations - preferring instead to let EJ survey his options downfield and anticipate separation. the immediate trouble with this is, he's asking his young QB to recognize the flow of the coverage.. and when that recognition is off, EJ doesn't pull the trigger until he sees separation. this can result in poorly thrown balls, or (to EJ's credit) check downs when the alarm in his head goes off. i'm confidant that with experience EJ will develop better recognition skills, but i don't think he'll ever be a consistently accurate passer.. so getting him at least one receiver who can beat his defender to his spot on drop&toss plays, and who comes up with poorly thrown balls when EJ's being - well, an inexperienced QB - is essential. he doesn't have to be the next Calvin or AJ.. just a better physical compliment to Goodwin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Section242 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Agreed. Plus where we'll be drafting we'll be in a position to get the best TE in the draft. Players like AJ, calvin johnson, a. johnson etc require having a top 5 pick. Dorial Green-Beckham but he's not eligible til 2015 draft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garranimal Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 get EJ what he needs to succeed in 2014 Blake Bortles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 A big "go get the ball" WR. And a playmaking TE. Easy, right? C'mon Dorkington. Everyone knows you get a go get the ball WR and playmaking TE from the go get the ball WR and playmaking TE tree. They're right next to the franchise QB patch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Put me on the side to have the Bills try mightily to upgrade and TE and WR in the off season. If you're Petyon Manning or Brady maybe you can get away without great WRs and TEs. However EJ is not like them and may never be. Instead of giving up on him because he can't excel with SJ and Graham as the startesr, get some good players to surround himself with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filthymcnasty08 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Thread title should read: Get CJ what he needs to succeed 1-LG Upgrade 2- a real NFL OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Better than having a rookie slump like some people. I thought you had to buy these guys at a special store? Anyways according to some here, the best way to help EJ is to continue to draft O-linemen in the first round. Seriously though, weapons do matter as JR knows. Brady is an interesting case because he won a Super Bowl with Givens, Patten, and other no names. However earlier this year when missing Gronk, Amendola, and Vereen, he was playing the worst football of his career. So yes, weapons do matter especially when injuries force you to throw to 2 rookie wideouts (Dobson and Thompkins). As a corollary, please remember that very few rookie wideouts make significant contributions (cue those who will bring up the exceptions as the rule). As far as EJ's accuracy, I reject those who say he's not accurate. Yes, he needs to work on his LONG ACCURACY which is a function of him improving his mechanics. But his short and medium accuracy are excellent for the most part and most of the misfires he's had are a function of missing 2 weeks of preseason, 5 weeks of the regular season, and regularly throwing to, wait for it, 2 rookie wideouts. EJ's made accurate downfield throws that Fitz couldn't make in his most glorious dreams. In addition, EJ was a 67% passer in college with an astronomical yards per attempt of 8.6. There are only two ways of having a yards per attempt that high: 1) Completing a high percentage of passes (every incompletion lowers that metric) 2) Making chunk yardage downfield EJ is a natural thrower who hasn't yet sighted-in his gun. But he's generally an accurate thrower whose accuracy will improve. Disagree with me but mark my words. I agree with you about weapons. I also think if the Bills had better receiving options you can mask the Oline a little. I know it sounds backwards but if another team has to respect the pass as much as the run, then your oline has an advantage. Right now teams are keying on the run. i am not writing EJ off. i am more worried that hackett's inability to work well with him is hurting EJ's career and confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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