The next four games = the season

[The Big Cat]

We have four games until the bye week, then a pretty favorable schedule after that.

 

If we can split these next four (NO, KC, PITT, NYJ), that would put us in a great position.

 

I definitely think we can, but I can also see us going win less.

 

A week 12 bye week is no fun, but going into ours 5-6 (or better, but i'm not holding my breath) would be HUGE.

[BringBackFergy]

We have four games until the bye week, then a pretty favorable schedule after that.

 

If we can split these next four (NO, KC, PITT, NYJ), that would put us in a great position.

 

I definitely think we can, but I can also see us going win less.

 

A week 12 bye week is no fun, but going into ours 5-6 (or better, but i'm not holding my breath) would be HUGE.

I like our chances Cat. Byrd will be more acclimated to the D, Gilmore will be "de-clawed" or "de-clubbed" soon, Mario is getting into a groove of sorts, Thad is getting more and more confident (albeit less accurate but there is room for improvement), and it was nice seeing Lee Smith and even Chris Gragg take some heat off Chandler (if we can get another TE involved Lewis will have another solid target to look to). I'd like to see 4-0 in this stretch but will settle for 2-2.

[The Big Cat]

I like our chances Cat. Byrd will be more acclimated to the D, Gilmore will be "de-clawed" or "de-clubbed" soon, Mario is getting into a groove of sorts, Thad is getting more and more confident (albeit less accurate but there is room for improvement), and it was nice seeing Lee Smith and even Chris Gragg take some heat off Chandler (if we can get another TE involved Lewis will have another solid target to look to). I'd like to see 4-0 in this stretch but will settle for 2-2.

 

Hahaha...4-0 (a five game winning streak) would be THE national story!

[cmjoyce113]

I think we need to go 3-1 over the next 4. To me we need to beat the Jets and Steelers and split with the Saints/Chiefs. If by some fluke we win the next 2, you have to go 4-0 heading into the bye. If your are 7-4 going into the bye week you have a serious chance at the division title. The next 2 weeks are the most important weeks the Bills have had since they lost to Pittsburgh in the season finale about 10 years ago.

[filthymcnasty08]

NO game - we cannot go 3 and out on 80% of our drives - were most likely toast in that game unless Pettine can work up something nasty on D. 20% chance to win that game.

 

The KC game is a classic trap game - I hope they are undefeated when they come in. I give us 50/50.

 

@ Pitt - they beat the Jets and Ravens. Road game: 50/50

 

Jets @ home: revenge game - Bills win in another tight match.

Edited October 21, 2013 by filthymcnasty08

[MichFan]

Four of the top defenses in the league this year. 3-4 wins and things get very interesting. 2 wins and we're still alive. 0-1 win and the season's over. Our O-Coordinator needs to show he is a pro caliber strategist now, the kid gloves are off. The defensive line needs to achieve consistency in pressuring the QB. I believe we have to talent to win 3 of these games.

[quinnearlysghost88]

I see us giving KC a hard time. We just seem to have their number, much like the Jets have ours.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Buffalo

8 Sun, Oct 27 @ New Orleans

9 Sun, Nov 3 Kansas City

10 Sun, Nov 10 @ Pittsburgh

11 Sun, Nov 17 New York NYETS

12 BYE WEEK

13 Sun, Dec 1 Atlanta

14 Sun, Dec 8 @ Tampa Bay

15 Sun, Dec 15 @ Jacksonville

16 Sun, Dec 22 Miami

17 Sun, Dec 29 @ New England

 

Miami

8 Sun, Oct 27 @ New England

9 Sun, Nov 3 Cincy Bungles

10 Sun, Nov 10 @ Tampa Bay

11 Sun, Nov 17 Chargers

12 Sun, Nov 24 Carolina

13 Sun, Dec 1 @ New York NYETS

14 Sun, Dec 8 @ Pittsburgh

15 Sun, Dec 15 New England

16 Sun, Dec 22 @ Buffalo

17 Sun, Dec 29 New York NYETS

 

New York NYETS

8 Sun, Oct 27 @ Cincy Bungles

9 Sun, Nov 3 New Orleans

10 BYE WEEK

11 Sun, Nov 17 @ Buffalo

12 Sun, Nov 24 @ Balto

13 Sun, Dec 1 Miami

14 Sun, Dec 8 Oakland

15 Sun, Dec 15

16 Sun, Dec 22 Cleveland

17 Sun, Dec 29 @ Miami

 

NE Putz

8 Sun, Oct 27 Miami

9 Sun, Nov 3 Pittsburgh

10 BYE WEEK

11 Sun, Nov 17 @ Carolina

12 Sun, Nov 24 Denver

13 Sun, Dec 1 @ Houston

14 Sun, Dec 8 Cleveland

15 Sun, Dec 15 @ Miami

16 Sun, Dec 22 @ Balto

17 Sun, Dec 29 Buffalo

 

I see us giving KC a hard time. We just seem to have their number, much like the Jets have ours.

So do I. KC has a great home field advantage and they have had a soft schedule for the lost part.

 

In Buffalo ... take the Bills and the points.

Edited October 21, 2013 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[Reddy Freddy]

We have four games until the bye week, then a pretty favorable schedule after that.

 

If we can split these next four (NO, KC, PITT, NYJ), that would put us in a great position.

 

I definitely think we can, but I can also see us going win less.

 

A week 12 bye week is no fun, but going into ours 5-6 (or better, but i'm not holding my breath) would be HUGE.

 

I think this is exactly right. 2-2 over the next 4 games keeps us alive to get to 9-7 on the season, which I think gives us a chance in the AFC this year. Here's how I look at it:

 

Regarding the games before the bye, I think we will lose to the Saints and beat the Jets at home. That means we have to take one of the two games home vs. the Chiefs and at the Steelers. Both would be great, but I think that's asking too much with Thad likely still at QB for those games.

 

That gets us to 5-6 at the bye, hopefully with EJ ready to come back at that point.

 

Regarding the games after the bye, we should be favored to win at Tampa, at Jax, and home vs Miami. Win those, and you're then at 8 wins. The two other games are Atlanta in Toronto and at New England. Split those and you're at 9 wins.

 

Difficult? Yes. Impossible? I don't think so.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

We have to beat the Jets. If we want to have any shot at anything, we have to win that game (and then beat Miami at home). That would allow us to likely be 3-3 in the division, with probable tie-breaker advantages over both the Jets and Miami.

 

I would take going 1-3 over the next 4 games, so long as the lone win is against the Jets.

[The Big Cat]

We have to beat the Jets. If we want to have any shot at anything, we have to win that game (and then beat Miami at home). That would allow us to likely be 3-3 in the division, with probable tie-breaker advantages over both the Jets and Miami.

 

I would take going 1-3 over the next 4 games, so long as the lone win is against the Jets.

 

1-3 with a win over the Jets is the ONLY sub-2-2 scenario that lets us sniff a shot...at anything

 

scenarios in order of worst to best:

 

0-4

1-3 with a loss to the Jets

1-3 with a in over the Jets

2-2 with a loss to the Jets

3-1 with a loss to the jets

2-2 with a win over the jets

3-1 with a win over the jets

4-0

 

that seem right?

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1-3 with a win over the Jets is the ONLY sub-2-2 scenario that lets us sniff a shot...at anything

 

scenarios in order of worst to best:

 

0-4

1-3 with a loss to the Jets

1-3 with a in over the Jets

2-2 with a loss to the Jets

3-1 with a loss to the jets

2-2 with a win over the jets

3-1 with a win over the jets

4-0

 

that seem right?

 

I would agree with that.

 

Realistically, I think we can pull off scenario No. 3 (2-2, with win over jets). Just a matter of winning 2 games at home.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

IF the NFL Gods shine a light on Buffalo

 

8 Sun, Oct 27 @ New Orleans - L

9 Sun, Nov 3 Kansas City - W

10 Sun, Nov 10 @ Pittsburgh - W

11 Sun, Nov 17 New York NYETS - W

12 BYE WEEK

13 Sun, Dec 1 Atlanta - W

14 Sun, Dec 8 @ Tampa Bay - W

15 Sun, Dec 15 @ Jacksonville - W

16 Sun, Dec 22 Miami - W

17 Sun, Dec 29 @ New England - W

Edited October 21, 2013 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[Reddy Freddy]

IF the NFL gods shines a light on Buffalo

 

8 Sun, Oct 27 @ New Orleans - L

9 Sun, Nov 3 Kansas City - W

10 Sun, Nov 10 @ Pittsburgh - L

11 Sun, Nov 17 New York NYETS - W

12 BYE WEEK

13 Sun, Dec 1 Atlanta - W

14 Sun, Dec 8 @ Tampa Bay - W

15 Sun, Dec 15 @ Jacksonville - W

16 Sun, Dec 22 Miami - W

17 Sun, Dec 29 @ New England - L

 

My optimistic projection above ... 9 wins is the magic number in my opinion. That at least gives us a solid chance, especially if we beat the Jets and Dolphins. I still think @Pitt will be very tough and Atlanta is still dangerous. If we lose to Atlanta or drop one of the games we'll be favored in (TB, JAX, MIA), then I think we'll need to win the last game of the year to get to 9 wins.

Edited October 21, 2013 by Reddy Freddy

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

IF the NFL gods shines a light on Buffalo

 

8 Sun, Oct 27 @ New Orleans - L

9 Sun, Nov 3 Kansas City - W

10 Sun, Nov 10 @ Pittsburgh - W

11 Sun, Nov 17 New York NYETS - W

12 BYE WEEK

13 Sun, Dec 1 Atlanta - W

14 Sun, Dec 8 @ Tampa Bay - W

15 Sun, Dec 15 @ Jacksonville - W

16 Sun, Dec 22 Miami - W

17 Sun, Dec 29 @ New England - W

 

While you're at it, why don't you just mark us down for a "W" at New Orleans too!?

[The Big Cat]

While you're at it, why don't you just mark us down for a "W" at New Orleans too!?

 

hahaha

[Billshank Redemption]

IF the NFL gods shines a light on Buffalo

 

8 Sun, Oct 27 @ New Orleans - L

9 Sun, Nov 3 Kansas City - W

10 Sun, Nov 10 @ Pittsburgh - W

11 Sun, Nov 17 New York NYETS - W

12 BYE WEEK

13 Sun, Dec 1 Atlanta - W

14 Sun, Dec 8 @ Tampa Bay - W

15 Sun, Dec 15 @ Jacksonville - W

16 Sun, Dec 22 Miami - W

17 Sun, Dec 29 @ New England - W

 

Haha I would very happily take this.

[johnwalter]

i would say we have:

 

 

a 15% chance of beating NO

a 15% chance of beating KC

a 65% chance of beating PIT

a 50% chance of beating NYJ

 

thus our expected wins: .15+.15.+.65+.50 = 1.45

so winning 1 or 2 of the 4 games seams reasonable

[Meark]

Buffalo hasn't lost a home game to KC since 1986.. Hoping the trend continues.

[cvanvol]

Nine wins will not get us into the playoffs in the AFC this year. Especially not with KC, Denver and SD playing well. We need to get to 10

[The Big Cat]

Buffalo hasn't lost a home game to KC since 1986.. Hoping the trend continues.

 

Same was true this year for Cincy.

[tennesseeboy]

These are some very very tough teams coming up. If we win more than two of the next four I'd revise my estimate of eight win max to making us serious playoff contenders. Stranger things have happened and we will have some players coming back off injuries...so let's keep our fingers crossed. Realistically? I would be happy to win one of the next four.

[Luxy312]

The next two games will be difficult for the Bills to win. The Saints have are coming off of a bye week and get an extra week of rest after their only loss to the Patriots. They're a solid football team particularly on the defensive side. Can't say enough on the Chiefs. They've been playing lights out defensively. The only saving grace is that they at least get to play them at home. After that they get the Steelers, who don't really scare me all that much. Their offense has been absolutely pathetic. Home against the Jets before our bye week, but for some reason this team always makes Jets QB's look like Joe Montana. Atlanta at home doesn't bother me either. Julio Jones is gone for the season, and Roddy White is catching about 2 balls a game. To boot, they have almost no running game. Speaking of which, then they got to Tampa Bay, who just lost their best offensive player for the season. They follow up playing that 0-6 team with an 0-7 team in the Jags. Jacksonville may seriously not win a single game this season. Finish that off with the Fish and the Pats. I seriously think this team could win 6 more games. Will come down to whether the defense can continue to take the ball away and whether the offense holds onto their own. 9-7 could easily make the Bills a wild card and a dangerous team to have to play in the first round of the playoffs.

[The Senator]

15 and 4 baby!!!!!

[Reddy Freddy]

Nine wins will not get us into the playoffs in the AFC this year. Especially not with KC, Denver and SD playing well. We need to get to 10

 

I'll bet you a Buffalo nickel that the last AFC wild card gets in at 9-7. Not saying that will be us, but a 9-7 team will make the playoffs in the AFC. San Diego is 4-3 and has to play Denver and KC twice each still.

[4merper4mer]

The best scenario is to lose to New Orleans and beat KC, Pitt and the Jets as the three wins will improve our record and beat potential rivals and the loss to NO will help us in tie-breakers because they are in the NFC.

[Meark]

Same was true this year for Cincy.

 

Very true.. Cincy has been breaking a bunch of their terrible streaks/records lately.. Regardless of their current record I think Cincy is a better team than KC.

[DerekJ]

Hahaha...4-0 (a five game winning streak) would be THE national story!

 

Hah! Could you imagine? The downtrodden, patchwork Bills holding it together to get to 7-4 going into the bye...every news organization would be beating down the doors at One Bills Drive.

[The Big Cat]

Hah! Could you imagine? The downtrodden, patchwork Bills holding it together to get to 7-4 going into the bye...every news organization would be beating down the doors at One Bills Drive.

 

And all eyes would be on EJ's return.

[Dean Cain]

Gotta beat up the Aints. This is a game where our defense can step up & show the NFL nation how good they are. Beat the Saints & I'll believe we can run the table.

[Captain Hindsight]

I am much more confident about most games this year than in years past simply because I trust the coaching staff to have the team ready to play. We haven't laid an egg in any game yet

[DC Bills Backer]

The best scenario is to lose to New Orleans and beat KC, Pitt and the Jets as the three wins will improve our record and beat potential rivals and the loss to NO will help us in tie-breakers because they are in the NFC.

 

I would say the best scenario would be to win all 4 games giving us a better chance at making the playoffs.

[billykaykay]

Hah! Could you imagine? The downtrodden, patchwork Bills holding it together to get to 7-4 going into the bye...every news organization would be beating down the doors at One Bills Drive.

If the Bills are 7-4 going into the bye, Thad will remain the QB, at least for a while.

[JPS]

Dunno if I'm tipping my hand on this thread, but I picked up NO Defense and Alex Smith to cover bye weeks in FFL. I'd be blown away if this team went 8-8. They are just not consistent enough in every phase of the game. They have shown improvement though.

[dollars 2 donuts]

NO game - we cannot go 3 and out on 80% of our drives - were most likely toast in that game unless Pettine can work up something nasty on D. 20% chance to win that game.

 

The KC game is a classic trap game - I hope they are undefeated when they come in. I give us 50/50.

 

@ Pitt - they beat the Jets and Ravens. Road game: 50/50

 

Jets @ home: revenge game - Bills win in another tight match.

 

This.

 

I am with Cat on the 2-2, but I think there is a legitimate shot at 3-1.

 

Although our P.O. chances would be seriously dimmed at 1-3, I still think there is a reasonable shot to get to .500 by season's end.

 

EDIT: I think that after NO running the table to the bye week should be on every Bills' fans mind.

Edited October 22, 2013 by dollars 2 donuts

[cvanvol]

I'll bet you a Buffalo nickel that the last AFC wild card gets in at 9-7. Not saying that will be us, but a 9-7 team will make the playoffs in the AFC. San Diego is 4-3 and has to play Denver and KC twice each still.

 

Thats fine, I would bet that you were right. But 9-7 wont get us into the playoffs. We will lose the tie breaker at 9-7. We need 10 wins

[boyst]

I am morrle worried about Pitt then any other team. NO will be a very tough game. I don't know if we can expect a win or evenhope. KC has had a light schedule. I'm not too worried. Timing and injuries have put them where they are. The Jets wil go down with revenge

 

The steelers tho are a mature team and well coached. They will get better if anything and that makes me most worried about that game. 3-1 is possible. But 2-2 more likely

[dollars 2 donuts]

On a side note...isn't fun to still be able to talk like this?

 

...and believe it?

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I am morrle worried about Pitt then any other team. NO will be a very tough game. I don't know if we can expect a win or evenhope. KC has had a light schedule. I'm not too worried. Timing and injuries have put them where they are. The Jets wil go down with revenge

 

The steelers tho are a mature team and well coached. They will get better if anything and that makes me most worried about that game. 3-1 is possible. But 2-2 more likely

 

We are going to lose to the steelers. In fact, I think they are going to rebound and get to 9+ Wins.

 

kc and NYJ are home games too and give us a better shot.

[RevWarRifleman]

I think this is exactly right. 2-2 over the next 4 games keeps us alive to get to 9-7 on the season, which I think gives us a chance in the AFC this year. Here's how I look at it:

 

Regarding the games before the bye, I think we will lose to the Saints and beat the Jets at home. That means we have to take one of the two games home vs. the Chiefs and at the Steelers. Both would be great, but I think that's asking too much with Thad likely still at QB for those games.

 

That gets us to 5-6 at the bye, hopefully with EJ ready to come back at that point.

 

Regarding the games after the bye, we should be favored to win at Tampa, at Jax, and home vs Miami. Win those, and you're then at 8 wins. The two other games are Atlanta in Toronto and at New England. Split those and you're at 9 wins.

 

Difficult? Yes. Impossible? I don't think so.

Good analysis. But over the next 4 games, I say win the 2 home games,(yeh we have KC, but its at the Ralph man) and beat somebody on the road if you want to be relevant. Pittsburgh looks like the best chance for that. JMO.