Stevie Johnson: Pats can't 'stop me'

[The Big Cat]

The key to whether or not the Pats can stop SJ is how effective they are at stopping the Bills running game.If the Pats can contain the Bills rushing attack - without having to commit an extra defender in the box - then added attention (ie that extra defender) can be placed towards stopping SJ ..... if need be.

 

I feel like I'm back in an argument about Lee Evans...

[thebandit27]

No worries though. A couple weeks ago on Rochester radio during camp SJ13 said he had learned his lesson and was done doing immature things that hurt the team.

 

Here's the part I need to understand: how does what he said in the interview (I'm assuming you listened to it) hurt the team?

[billsfan1959]

Yet you don't say why the stats are useless.

 

In this case, we're looking at his history to make a determination about the very subjective assertion: Pats can't stop Stevie. What would "unstoppable" stats look like? I'd venture to say they're a whole lot better than about 4 catches for 60ish yards and less than half a touchdown per game.

 

And if stats don't exist in a vacuum, I welcome you to jump on into the many debates I've had defending Ryan Fitzpatrick, that Stevie wouldn't have gotten 3 x 1000 yard seasons if Fitz was as incompetent as posters here will have you believe.

 

Actually, I did. Those stats tell us nothing about the games themselves. Let me be a little more specific: How did his teammates play, how often was he double teamed, how often was he targeted, how accurate were the passes, did the offensive line give the quarterback enough time, etc. Those statistics are meaningless because they fail to factor in so many things that go into how effective any player is in any given game. They become even more meaningless when we are talking about how successful Johnson might be in a future game. I could go on; however, you should get the point - and I am sure you do.

[thebandit27]

For those that wonder about the Stevie-Fitz dynamic, here's a great breakdown by Cian Fahey:

 

http://presnapreads.com/2013/05/24/the-rollercoaster-series-steve-johnson-buffalo-bills/

[The Big Cat]

Actually, I did. Those stats tell us nothing about the games themselves. Let me be a little more specific: How did his teammates play, how often was he double teamed, how often was he targeted, how accurate were the passes, did the offensive line give the quarterback enough time, etc. Those statistics are meaningless because they fail to factor in so many things that go into how effective any player is in any given game. They become even more meaningless when we are talking about how successful Johnson might be in a future game. I could go on; however, you should get the point - and I am sure you do.

 

I understand what you're saying. But if you're going to dismiss the validity of stats based on these factors, then all stats are moot. CJ Spiller took it 90 yards to the house because two linebackers missed their assignment, or because the defense only had 10 guys on the field, therefore CJ's stats are meaningless.

 

Also, and more to the point, and similar to what somebody indirectly mentioned already, if New England* forced the QB into bad throws by disrupting the line, by getting into throwing lanes, but pressuring the quaterback, or by forcing the quarterback to go through more progressions, then--by your logic--they have effectively "stopped" Stevie Johnson.

[billsfan1959]

I understand what you're saying. But if you're going to dismiss the validity of stats based on these factors, then all stats are moot. CJ Spiller took it 90 yards to the house because two linebackers missed their assignment, or because the defense only had 10 guys on the field, therefore CJ's stats are meaningless.

 

Also, and more to the point, and similar to what somebody indirectly mentioned already, if New England* forced the QB into bad throws by disrupting the line, by getting into throwing lanes, but pressuring the quaterback, or by forcing the quarterback to go through more progressions, then--by your logic--they have effectively "stopped" Stevie Johnson.

 

I am not dismissing the validity of statistics - I am dismissing the validity of using general statistics in a vacuum. I will use your example: CJ Spiller carries the ball ten times in a game. On one play he runs for 90 yards and a touchdown because the other team has only 10 men on the field or because two linebackers miss their assignments on that particular play. On the other nine plays, Spiller gains 27 yards for a 3 YPC average. He ends the game with 117 yards on ten carries, for a YPC average of 11.7, and a touchdown. The stats are valid in terms of numbers only. If you were to then say the team he was playing is incapable of stopping him because he averages 11.7 yards per rush against them - then those stats become meaningless because they do not tell the whole story.

 

In general, stats are not that meaningful when the sample size is small, and become more meaningful as the sample size increases. For example, if Spiller plays for ten years and finishes his career averaging approx 20 carries a game and over 6 YPC, then the statistics become more meaningful because things like plays with only ten defensive players on the field or linebackers missing their assignments become statistical outliers. But even then, all they would really tell you is that he was a really good running back.

 

My point was that statistics, other than in very controlled scientific conditions, can only tell you so much. In the post I was responding to, those stats literally were meaningless in terms of supporting the argument. Maybe that is why, in sports, you often hear the phrase, "statistics are for losers."

Edited September 3, 2013 by billsfan1959

[The Big Cat]

I am not dismissing the validity of statistics - I am dismissing the validity of using general statistics in a vacuum. I will use your example: CJ Spiller carries the ball ten times in a game. On one play he runs for 90 yards and a touchdown because the other team has only 10 men on the field or because two linebackers miss their assignments on that particular play. On the other nine plays, Spiller gains 27 yards for a 3 YPC average. He ends the game with 117 yards on ten carries, for a YPC average of 11.7, and a touchdown. The stats are valid in terms of numbers only. If you were to then say the team he was playing is incapable of stopping him because he averages 11.7 yards per rush against them - then those stats become meaningless because they do not tell the whole story.

 

In general, stats are not that meaningful when the sample size is small, and become more meaningful as the sample size increases. For example, if Spiller plays for ten years and finishes his career averaging approx 20 carries a game and over 6 YPC, then the statistics become more meaningful because things like plays with only ten defensive players on the field or linebackers missing their assignments become statistical outliers. But even then, all they would really tell you is that he was a really good running back.

 

My point was that statistics, other than in very controlled scientific conditions, can only tell you so much. In the post I was responding to, those stats literally were meaningless in terms of supporting the argument. Maybe that is why, in sports, you often hear the phrase, "statistics are for losers."

 

And I don't necessarily disagree with that.

[CodeMonkey]

Here's the part I need to understand: how does what he said in the interview (I'm assuming you listened to it) hurt the team?

Yes I did hear it that day. What he said in the interview didn't hurt the team. What he said in the interview basically was that he had grown up and wasn't going to do immature things any more that could hurt the team. Yet not even week one and it's the same old Stevie it seems.

[Maury Ballstein]

 

 

Fair enough. But every time his antics bubble up, folks like you dismiss it by saying "Stevie's just..."

 

And my argument all along is that said dismissal is fine, if he did it once or twice, and not regularly enough that we have to keep hearing "Stevie's just..."

 

As mentioned already, his antics were enough for one coach to bench him already...

 

The happy new year / why so serious gangster is out of control !

 

 

[B-Large]

I wish Football players were more like hockey players in this regard. Shut your mouth and earn respect by being better, tougher and more hungry that your opponent.

 

Stevie is a clown and is free to run his mouth, dance like a jackass after TD's and pull other antics, but after purusing the Patriots/Bills records thread I don't see much reason for any Bills to run their mouths...

 

Lets hope that Brady doesn't sodomize our below average secondary for 50 this weekend.... Stevie, can you play DB? Could you unstoppable at that position?

[C.Biscuit97]

I wish Football players were more like hockey players in this regard. Shut your mouth and earn respect by being better, tougher and more hungry that your opponent.

 

Stevie is a clown and is free to run his mouth, dance like a jackass after TD's and pull other antics, but after purusing the Patriots/Bills records thread I don't see much reason for any Bills to run their mouths...

 

Lets hope that Brady doesn't sodomize our below average secondary for 50 this weekend.... Stevie, can you play DB? Could you unstoppable at that position?

 

Maybe if hockey players had some personalities, it won't be a fringe sport.

 

Btw, it's hilarious how posters act like players (most of them who are much younger than then) are supposed to act a certain way. You realize you are rooting for guys who play a game? Some of you need to get over yourselves.

[BUNCH OF MULARKEY]

I don't think he's a bad guy. I think he's a good player, good teammate, and good in the community.

Just the constant "look at me" antics seem like desperate pleas for attention that you would expect from a high school kid.

 

[transient]

Can't help it. Thread title makes me think of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c69DzQ2Yu8w

Edited September 4, 2013 by transient

[thebandit27]

Yes I did hear it that day. What he said in the interview didn't hurt the team. What he said in the interview basically was that he had grown up and wasn't going to do immature things any more that could hurt the team. Yet not even week one and it's the same old Stevie it seems.

 

Sorry for the confusion, I was referring to the audio of the "Pats can't stop me" quote...I meant to ask what about that interview hurt the team.

[CodeMonkey]

Sorry for the confusion, I was referring to the audio of the "Pats can't stop me" quote...I meant to ask what about that interview hurt the team.

Ohhhh. That quote in particular nothing (unless you believe in things like like firing other team up). But it sure makes it look like the same old SJ13.

 

Plus to be honest it makes him look like a fool. All anyone has to do is look at the records of the two teams over the last 13 years, both in general and against each other, and any Bill shooting their mouth off looks the fool.

Edited September 4, 2013 by CodeMonkey

[thebandit27]

Ohhhh. That quote in particular nothing (unless you believe in things like like firing other team up). But it sure makes it look like the same old SJ13.

 

Plus to be honest it makes him look like a fool. All anyone has to do is look at the records of the two teams over the last 13 years, both in general and against each other, and any Bill shooting their mouth off looks the fool.

 

Gotcha...for me, I tend to have (what I assume is) the same attitude as the players toward that kind of stuff; it just doesn't bother me. Some guys talk, some guys don't. I can't say I agree with your take, but I do understand that some folks prefer their athletes to keep quiet.

[B-Large]

Maybe if hockey players had some personalities, it won't be a fringe sport.

 

Btw, it's hilarious how posters act like players (most of them who are much younger than then) are supposed to act a certain way. You realize you are rooting for guys who play a game? Some of you need to get over yourselves.

 

If you like seeing Grown men dance like idiots all over your favorite game, fine. These are men were talking about.. I don't like or need the dancing and bull **** after a touchdown, hand the ball to the ref and get back to business... I don't know when this dancing **** started, but its stupid.

[biglukes]

 

 

If you like seeing Grown men dance like idiots all over your favorite game, fine. These are men were talking about.. I don't like or need the dancing and bull **** after a touchdown, hand the ball to the ref and get back to business... I don't know when this dancing **** started, but its stupid.

God forbid anybody have fun playing a GAME.

[thebandit27]

If you like seeing Grown men dance like idiots all over your favorite game, fine. These are men were talking about.. I don't like or need the dancing and bull **** after a touchdown, hand the ball to the ref and get back to business... I don't know when this dancing **** started, but its stupid.

 

And while you're at it...GET OFF MY LAWN!

[biglukes]

 

 

And while you're at it...GET OFF MY LAWN!

Damn kids with their rock n roll, 8 track tapes.

[GG]

If you like seeing Grown men dance like idiots all over your favorite game, fine. These are men were talking about.. I don't like or need the dancing and bull **** after a touchdown, hand the ball to the ref and get back to business... I don't know when this dancing **** started, but its stupid.

 

I'm sorry, but back in the prehistoric days I loved to watch Billy White Shoes' TD dances. Sports is entertainment. Always has been, always will. That's how the NFL got to rule the TV game. It recognized the entertainment aspect of the game, and that to keep building audiences it needs more than a bunch of guys hitting each other. It's just a hunch, but if ratings start to slide, suddenly NFL will be much more lax about TD celebrations.

[B-Large]

God forbid anybody have fun playing a GAME.

 

These same dancing clowns are the ones bankrupt within 2 years of retiring... alot of life is about how you carry yourself.. you can have fun, you don't have to dance a jig..

[thebandit27]

These same dancing clowns are the ones bankrupt within 2 years of retiring... alot of life is about how you carry yourself.. you can have fun, you don't have to dance a jig..

 

Where exactly is the line drawn between being allowed to have fun and being allowed to dance?

[The Big Cat]

Where exactly is the line drawn between being allowed to have fun and being allowed to dance?

 

Who--other than you--implied there was a difference?

[thebandit27]

Who--other than you--implied there was a difference?

 

Wait, really?

 

These same dancing clowns are the ones bankrupt within 2 years of retiring... alot of life is about how you carry yourself.. you can have fun, you don't have to dance a jig..

[CodeMonkey]

Gotcha...for me, I tend to have (what I assume is) the same attitude as the players toward that kind of stuff; it just doesn't bother me. Some guys talk, some guys don't. I can't say I agree with your take, but I do understand that some folks prefer their athletes to keep quiet.

Yeah I can see where you are coming from as well. But to me if you have been good (as a team) you don't need to talk (look at the pats* for example), and if you have been bad (or VERY bad) if you talk it makes you look foolish. I guess over all I would prefer the players to be quiet and do their talking on the field. Put up or shut up as it were.

Edited September 4, 2013 by CodeMonkey

[Meatloaf Sandwich]

I wish Football players were more like hockey players in this regard. Shut your mouth and earn respect by being better, tougher and more hungry that your opponent.

 

Stevie is a clown and is free to run his mouth, dance like a jackass after TD's and pull other antics, but after purusing the Patriots/Bills records thread I don't see much reason for any Bills to run their mouths...

 

Lets hope that Brady doesn't sodomize our below average secondary for 50 this weekend.... Stevie, can you play DB? Could you unstoppable at that position?

 

Jealousy... I bet he will say it isn't.

[The Big Cat]

Wait, really?

 

My bad, bro.

[thebandit27]

 

 

My bad, bro.

 

All good man

[enlightener]

So every single screen pass to CJ that he took for 40 yards means Fitz threw every yard of those too right?

 

Apparently yards after catch mean nothing.

sj had very few yac last season, and he doesn't catch screens like CJ does so the comparison is off, and some of fitz long balls were actually overthrown past SJ, had he been faster he may have caught a few. maybe an INT or two could be blamed on a bad route by SJ too, who knows, but you cant say SJ earned all those yards and then say Fitz doesn't deserve credit because they were 10 yarders. SJ only runs short routes anyways so whats fitz supposed to have done?

[MRW]

Yeah I can see where you are coming from as well. But to me if you have been good (as a team) you don't need to talk (look at the pats* for example), and if you have been bad (or VERY bad) if you talk it makes you look foolish. I guess over all I would prefer the players to be quiet and do their talking on the field. Put up or shut up as it were.

I want to see the team win. If the Bills lose, sure Johnson will look foolish, but really that's his problem not mine. The past 13 years of suckitude have never been made any better by the Bills players being quietly respectful of their opponents.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

sj had very few yac last season, and he doesn't catch screens like CJ does so the comparison is off, and some of fitz long balls were actually overthrown past SJ, had he been faster he may have caught a few. maybe an INT or two could be blamed on a bad route by SJ too, who knows, but you cant say SJ earned all those yards and then say Fitz doesn't deserve credit because they were 10 yarders. SJ only runs short routes anyways so whats fitz supposed to have done?

 

Interesting quote from EJ interview:

"Stevie is a very versatile receiver and he does things that you don’t expect sometimes. We hit all his routes and things he’s been open on."

 

Now that can be read a couple of different ways

[billsfan1959]

sj had very few yac last season, and he doesn't catch screens like CJ does so the comparison is off, and some of fitz long balls were actually overthrown past SJ, had he been faster he may have caught a few. maybe an INT or two could be blamed on a bad route by SJ too, who knows, but you cant say SJ earned all those yards and then say Fitz doesn't deserve credit because they were 10 yarders. SJ only runs short routes anyways so whats fitz supposed to have done?

 

I'm a little confused. If SJ gets very few YAC and only runs short routes - then how in the world did he get over 1000 yds?

[eball]

 

Where exactly is the line drawn between being allowed to have fun and being allowed to dance?

 

Why do I suddenly find myself humming "Footloose?"

[enlightener]

I'm a little confused. If SJ gets very few YAC and only runs short routes - then how in the world did he get over 1000 yds?

well its real simple....its called 12 ypc, so if he runs a 7 yard route and gets dragged down after whole nother 5 yards, that's 12 yards. Are you stil confused billsfan? 12 ypc is far from the kind of yac that gets you a decent ypc say something over 14-19 ypc....the type of number a gamebreaker would have,

[thebandit27]

well its real simple....its called 12 ypc, so if he runs a 7 yard route and gets dragged down after whole nother 5 yards, that's 12 yards. Are you stil confused billsfan? 12 ypc is far from the kind of yac that gets you a decent ypc say something over 14-19 ypc....the type of number a gamebreaker would have,

 

Mr. Englightener...it would be prudent for you to stop talking down to people in general, but especially so when you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

According to ESPN, Stevie ranked 11th in the NFL among WRs for YAC in 2012:

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/receiving/sort/receivingYardsAfterCatch

 

Better than players like Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Victor Cruz, Miles Austin, & Larry Fitzgerald

 

I'd also recommend you read this link (which I posted before in this thread) that examines the # of short, intermediate, and deep routes that Stevie ran in 2012:

 

http://presnapreads.com/2013/05/24/the-rollercoaster-series-steve-johnson-buffalo-bills/

 

As you'll see, 124 of his 387 routes run in 2012 were of the "deep" variety; that's 32% of his routes that were deep. In comparison, a mere 69 (17.8%) of his routes were short, while the remaining 194 (50.2%) were intermediate.

 

So basically, none of what you said ("he only runs short routes" and "he had very few YAC") is correct.

 

I'm anxious to hear your response...and again, it may behoove you to leave the snark out of it until you're confident enough in your talking points to be assured of their accuracy.

[billsfan1959]

well its real simple....its called 12 ypc, so if he runs a 7 yard route and gets dragged down after whole nother 5 yards, that's 12 yards. Are you stil confused billsfan? 12 ypc is far from the kind of yac that gets you a decent ypc say something over 14-19 ypc....the type of number a gamebreaker would have,

 

Given the level of receiver and quarterback talent this team has had around Johnson, as well as offensive philosophy - 12 ypc really is not, in and of itself, a good barometer of his talent. Of course you know that - it's just that your disdain for Johnson and incessant need to prove to everyone how right you are about him clouds your objectivity.

[BillsBytheBay]

So no one has mentioned yet his shout-out to Patriots safety Patrick Chung? Who now plays for the Eagles?

 

I love Stevie - but he has a ten-cent head.

it was a comment about NE's 2012 film, ya ten-cent head, lol. Than cut and paste to make a head line.

[BillsBytheBay]

 

sj had very few yac last season, and he doesn't catch screens like CJ does so the comparison is off, and some of fitz long balls were actually overthrown past SJ, had he been faster he may have caught a few. maybe an INT or two could be blamed on a bad route by SJ too, who knows, but you cant say SJ earned all those yards and then say Fitz doesn't deserve credit because they were 10 yarders. SJ only runs short routes anyways so whats fitz supposed to have done?

CJ is a rare talent, and is unfair to compare SJ to him. You do have to relize that Fitz didn't put the ball on a spot, to leed a receiver. It was easy to dump the ball off 2 yards, and let Spiller make magic. It was not so easy to squeez the ball into a tight window. To be honest, I was amazed at some of the throws Fitz made last year. I don't know that EJ can leed a guy yet, but I know he can throw a laser. I'm excited to see if 3 to 13 becomes a big deal.

[CountDorkula]

Mr. Englightener...it would be prudent for you to stop talking down to people in general, but especially so when you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

According to ESPN, Stevie ranked 11th in the NFL among WRs for YAC in 2012:

 

http://espn.go.com/n...YardsAfterCatch

 

Better than players like Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Victor Cruz, Miles Austin, & Larry Fitzgerald

 

I'd also recommend you read this link (which I posted before in this thread) that examines the # of short, intermediate, and deep routes that Stevie ran in 2012:

 

http://presnapreads....-buffalo-bills/

 

As you'll see, 124 of his 387 routes run in 2012 were of the "deep" variety; that's 32% of his routes that were deep. In comparison, a mere 69 (17.8%) of his routes were short, while the remaining 194 (50.2%) were intermediate.

 

So basically, none of what you said ("he only runs short routes" and "he had very few YAC") is correct.

 

I'm anxious to hear your response...and again, it may behoove you to leave the snark out of it until you're confident enough in your talking points to be assured of their accuracy.

 

I think the appropriate response here is

"Thank you sir, may i have another"

Edited September 5, 2013 by CountDorkula