Manuel/Cam Newton and the relevance of QBs in today's game

[Ronin]

Anyone see this, just posted on PFT;

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/30/new-panthers-g-m-on-newton-now-its-time-to-win/

 

It talks about how Newton's had more success in his first two seasons of starting in the NFL than any other NFL QB.

 

There are several things about this piece that are relevant.

 

First, despite that the Panthers, with at worst about the same talent that the Bills have, still went only 6-10 and 7-9 in those two seasons.

 

Second, the expectations are now a winning season as it will be for Marrone too in 2015 at the latest.

 

Third, Newton started both seasons.

 

If the team goes with Kolb then it will push Manuel's development back so that next year would be akin to a rebuilding year, or at least a year in which playoffs are not expected. Very few rookie QBs or second-year first-time starting QBs lead their team to the division title or playoffs. Some obvious exceptions are Brady, Kaepernick, Luck, RGIII, and Wilson as lightning seems to have struck in this way last season. But consider those teams, Seattle and SF have D's that we don't even come close to having. Luck was reportedly the most NFL-ready QB to ever have hit the NFL.

 

Most need a season just to get acclimated. Those that do have very talented teams around them and some other favorable circumstances to assist them.

 

Manuel didn't come into the league with the same stigma nor does he have the supporting casts of those teams.

 

Looking at some of the other top QBs in the game today:

 

Brees went 29 TDs/31 INTs in his first three seasons.

Stafford went 19/21 in his first two.

Matt Ryan had very average 16/11 and 22/14 seasons.

Eli Manning's first five seasons were all relatively average or only slightly better than average.

Flacco the same in his first two.

 

Gotta get Manuel in there. There's no reason to tinker with Kolb. Whether or not they do this will be the first clue as to whether or not Marrone & Co. know wtf they're doing.

[Gugny]

Is Steve Tasker dead?

[CosmicBills]

I'm on your side in hoping that EJ wins the competition but I don't agree that him not starting in Week One would be a dramatic set back for the franchise or his own development. First off, the franchise has been circling the drain for over a decade; it can't get much worse. Second, it would be more harmful (in my opinion of course) to hand EJ the job over Kolb rather than letting him compete to win it. Marone's whole philosophy since he arrived has been about preaching competition. How could he look his team in the eye if he makes everyone BUT his rookie QB earn their jobs? Let alone how that would impact the way EJ's teammates look upon him.

 

EJ is the future. The future could be now but he has to earn it first. And I think he will.

Edited July 30, 2013 by tgreg99

[GG]

I'm on your side in hoping that EJ wins the competition but I don't agree that him not starting in Week One would be a dramatic set back for the franchise or his own development. First off, the franchise has been circling the drain for over a decade; it can't get much worse. Second, it would be more harmful (in my opinion of course) to hand EJ the job over Kolb rather than letting him compete to win it. Marone's whole philosophy since he arrived has been about preaching competition. How could he look his team in the eye if he makes everyone BUT his rookie QB earn their jobs? Let alone how that would impact the way EJ's teammates look upon him.

 

EJ is the future. The future could be now but he has to earn it first. And I think he will.

 

That's also assuming that Kolb makes it through training camp ...

[CosmicBills]

That's also assuming that Kolb makes it through training camp ...

For sure.

[Gugny]

Every veteran player in the locker room knows Kevin Kolb is terrible.

 

Why play the "let EJ earn it," game when Kolb has already shown the world that he isn't capable of it?

[Ronin]

I'm on your side in hoping that EJ wins the competition but I don't agree that him not starting in Week One would be a dramatic set back for the franchise or his own development.

 

I didn't say week one, I've been saying by week 4 at minimum. He needs reps/games this season if the team expects to do anything w him next season, that's plain and simply all there is to it. Anything else and the risks are way to high.

 

QB controversy, taking next season for him to learn the ropes is what this season should be. It's not as if we have to decide to make the playoffs or start a rookie QB. This is a no-brainer.

 

First off, the franchise has been circling the drain for over a decade; it can't get much worse.

 

I'm really not sure what that has to do with anything. The goal is to move forward. One of my favorite lines from a movie is from Death Race 2000, the original when the Italian driver rips off his rear view mirror and says "what's behind you makes no difference."

 

It's the same here, what's behind us makes no difference now. None whatsoever other than perhaps attempting to shed an image of futility, but that has nothing to do w what's best now.

 

 

Second, it would be more harmful (in my opinion of course) to hand EJ the job over Kolb rather than letting him compete to win it. Marone's whole philosophy since he arrived has been about preaching competition. How could he look his team in the eye if he makes everyone BUT his rookie QB earn their jobs? Let alone how that would impact the way EJ's teammates look upon him.

 

EJ is the future. The future could be now but he has to earn it first. And I think he will.

 

That's ridiculous. With rare exceptions, Luck really, no other rookie QB is likely to outperform a veteran that's started in this league in that same season. I'm not sure you've thought that statement all the way thru. Few rookie QBs would ever start in their rookie seasons if that were the case.

 

Even last year, Wilson in Seattle started over Flynn who'd never even played a season. The Skins started RGIII over no one really. The Colts had no one either.

 

Anyway, you don't expend a 16th overall on a QB to have him sit due to "losing a competition" with a journeyman backup, you just don't. I can't believe that anyone even thinks like that most importantly the team/Marrone.

 

It tells me he's not all that bright to be honest.

 

And then what, at what point would you expect a novice or rookie QB to come in and outplay a vet that's been the starting QB? What, after Kolb predictably plays poorly?

 

This is bordering on the silly.

 

Every veteran player in the locker room knows Kevin Kolb is terrible.

 

Why play the "let EJ earn it," game when Kolb has already shown the world that he isn't capable of it?

 

Who knows if he's terrible, maybe he's perfectly capable of putting up Pennington-like numbers, but would you be enthused with that? Maybe he does suck, but either way his ceiling is severely limited. Manuel's, if the same people are to be believed after they put all their faith in him, at least on paper, is not.

 

And if so, or rather if the coaching staff is satisfied with that, then what was the point of not waiting until round 2 to try to draft Manuel and grabbing a player that really would help us win this season? There must have been 50 players that easily could have started for us in other critical positions. I'll name two, Arthur Brown and Alec Ogletree would have been huge this year in a LB corps that doesn't have one proven player on it right now. Both were available at 16th overall.

 

It's pure idiocy to approach the draft one way (build for the future) but approach the season another (the future is now).

 

But hey, that's the Buffalo Bills that we all know and love. No vision, no focused plan to bring things all together at one point in time, it's just one happy-go-lucky throw the balls in the air and see if they happen to land in a nicely formed pyramid kinda thing at OBD.

 

That's the problem with this team, there seems to be no one driving the bus. .... or wait, I take that back, the one driving is Brandon whose job it is to paint the bus and make it look all pretty on the outside.

Edited July 30, 2013 by TaskersGhost

[Gugny]

Who knows Kolb is terrible?

 

Anyone who has watched him start a game. That's who.

[Ronin]

Every veteran player in the locker room knows Kevin Kolb is terrible.

 

Why play the "let EJ earn it," game when Kolb has already shown the world that he isn't capable of it?

 

Especially when the odds are against it. The point should be getting him playing time so that he can play better next season.

 

Hence the contradiction in what the team says, "the future is now" and they'll play the QB that gives them the best chance of winning now, and a plan to bring it all together in the future.

 

These things, if their words are honest, raise serious cause for concern on this coaching staff. They need to figure out what they want to do and quickly. Right now they say that they want to win now which would likely result in Kolb starting and playing most of the season, but which would run counter to the team's best interests going forward.

 

The sad part is that Marrone is either lying thru his teeth or simply hasn't managed to grasp that easily graspable concept.

[CosmicBills]

I didn't say week one, I've been saying by week 4 at minimum. He needs reps/games this season if the team expects to do anything w him next season, that's plain and simply all there is to it. Anything else and the risks are way to high.

This is your hypothesis and it's one that's not really built on any sort of sound logical foundation. You've put an arbitrary number on the equation and settled on that number without any real evidence to the merits. But that's okay.

 

QB controversy, taking next season for him to learn the ropes is what this season should be. It's not as if we have to decide to make the playoffs or start a rookie QB. This is a no-brainer.

The game isn't played in a bubble...

 

 

I'm really not sure what that has to do with anything. The goal is to move forward. One of my favorite lines from a movie is from Death Race 2000, the original when the Italian driver rips off his rear view mirror and says "what's behind you makes no difference."

The Bills are young. Their window to win titles hasn't opened yet, let along begun to close. Claiming that EJ sitting on the bench in week 5 would be a disaster is just an extreme reaction/prediction without considering all the other factors that could be in play.

 

"It's hard to know where you're going if you don't know where you've been."

 

 

That's ridiculous. With rare exceptions, Luck really, no other rookie QB is likely to outperform a veteran that's started in this league in that same season. I'm not sure you've thought that statement all the way thru. Few rookie QBs would ever start in their rookie seasons if that were the case.

What's ridiculous is this statement. If you believe it's impossible for Manuel to beat out Kolb in a fair competition then why would you want to rush Manuel onto the field? Do you honestly believe that practice and camp are meaningless in terms of player evaluation? Because that seems to be what you're saying in which case I'd ask you why are you bothering to pay attention to camp news if it's all meaningless?

 

 

Even last year, Wilson in Seattle started over Flynn who'd never even played a season. The Skins started RGIII over no one really. The Colts had no one either.

 

Anyway, you don't expend a 16th overall on a QB to have him sit due to "losing a competition" with a journeyman backup, you just don't. I can't believe that anyone even thinks like that most importantly the team/Marrone.

All any coach or player on the roster cares about is winning now. Their jobs are on the line and no coach can sit back and wait to win. That's the point. Your argument seems to be talent is dictated by where a player is drafted, thus regardless of how they play in camp they should start based on their draft position.

 

That's why fans make horrible GMs.

[first_and_ten]

What if Kolb is terrible but Manuel isn't ready? Then what?

Edited July 30, 2013 by first_and_ten

[Gugny]

What if Kolb is terrible but Manuel isn't ready? Then what?

OJT

[Cotton Fitzsimmons]

Who knows Kolb is terrible?

 

Anyone who has watched him start a game. That's who.

 

Gugny, my good friend, they don't call him Kevin "Corn on the" Kolb for nothing.

[billsfan89]

You don't want to shell shock a QB, yes Kolb stinks but if EJ isn't ready they shouldn't rush him in to a bad situation that won't work out.

[Tcali]

cam newton may be one of those guys who looks good but doesn't win games.

[reddogblitz]

I want nothing more than to see EJ win the starting QB job. But I agree that he has to WIN IT by playing better than Kolb.

 

"Hence the contradiction in what the team says, "the future is now" and they'll play the QB that gives them the best chance of winning now, and a plan to bring it all together in the future."

 

I'm totally on board with this. As many may remember I didn't like the Marrone hire. Still don't really. But I'm totally 100% behind this. The future is now. Screw next year and letting guys learn blah blah blah. That's what TC and practice are for. Lets put our best guys out there and strap it on and try to win this thing. If that's with Manuel, sweet. If not, too bad so sad.

 

Playing for next year or the year after is a loser mentality. I'm hoping that's gone at OBD. It certainly isn't at TBD.

[MDH]

cam newton may be one of those guys who looks good but doesn't win games.

 

It might have to do with the 37 turnovers he's been responsible for in his first two seasons (in addition to his lack of leadership.) I look at the statistical seasons Wilson and Griffin had and don't think Newton's rookie season was anywhere near as good. Newton threw for a lot of yards...and that's about it. Talk about a bad D all you want a QB who turns the ball over that much is directly contributing to his team losing. I'd seriously argue with "the best two seasons for an NFL QB" statement.

[peterlaw]

Kolb looks OK here. 83 yard TD.

 

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=F1YZjiGkkag&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DF1YZjiGkkag

[Gugny]

Kolb looks OK here. 83 yard TD.

 

http://m.youtube.com...h?v=F1YZjiGkkag

Here's a highlight reel of Trent Edwards. Even the crappiest QBs in the league have their moments.

 

Kolb sucks.

 

[Dorkington]

As much as Trent didn't work out, I always forget how quick his throwing motion was. Gotta give him that.

[tennesseeboy]

I think Kolb may start if he performs well and we think we can pull together a winning and possible playoff season (unlikely). If Manuel starts Marrone buys a year, and if Manuel is successful Marrone looks like a genius. Manuel will have a first rate receiver, an underappreciated tight end in Chandler and a very good running back. The problem as it has been for over a decade is the offensive line as a unit. Hopefully there will be performance by the additions to that line and we'll get some backup strength in the course of the preseason. If the defense pulls together and stops underachieving, and Manuel turns out to be a good qb, I can see some good results coming from this team, and perhaps even a winning season. That is perhaps overoptimistic, but I think the talent is there if the coaching is up to snuff.

[CosmicBills]

I don't disagree with you, Tennessee. I'm hardened to the state of the franchise these days. I spent years on here railing against the downward spiral this team has been mired in yet every off season I'd get excited at the prospects of a "what if" kind of season. Last season was the first one in my lifetime that I went into completely apathetic too. I hoped for a good season but knew it was wishful thinking so long as the QB situation went unresolved. I was uninspired by the Marone hire at first (having little to no experience with his stint at SU), felt the Brandon move was just more shuffling of the deck chairs on the Titanic, cheered the Whaley promotion but eyed it with suspicion like the battered spouse that I am, and knew little about EJ when he was anointed as the new Chosen One.

 

But I have to say, in the months sense I've gotten really excited about what the team is building here. Of course it's meaningless without Ws on Sunday to back it up, but from the new look D and O to the young talent being infused at positions that have been criminally neglected by this organization for over a decade, I think that this team has the ability to do more than just take a step out of the basement. The AFC East is in disarray right now with the *Pats window nearly closed, the Jests are more dysfunctional than Larry David's dating life, and the Dolphins overspent themselves into a corner by betting the farm on a very unimpressive young QB.

 

The defense has the talent on paper to turn things around in a hurry but once again it'll come down to the QB play. For the first time in a long time I feel like there's hope. If a couple things bounce their way and this team could find itself on the right side of 8 wins this year and chasing a WC spot.

[bowery4]

I don't disagree with you, Tennessee. I'm hardened to the state of the franchise these days. I spent years on here railing against the downward spiral this team has been mired in yet every off season I'd get excited at the prospects of a "what if" kind of season. Last season was the first one in my lifetime that I went into completely apathetic too. I hoped for a good season but knew it was wishful thinking so long as the QB situation went unresolved. I was uninspired by the Marone hire at first (having little to no experience with his stint at SU), felt the Brandon move was just more shuffling of the deck chairs on the Titanic, cheered the Whaley promotion but eyed it with suspicion like the battered spouse that I am, and knew little about EJ when he was anointed as the new Chosen One.

 

But I have to say, in the months sense I've gotten really excited about what the team is building here. Of course it's meaningless without Ws on Sunday to back it up, but from the new look D and O to the young talent being infused at positions that have been criminally neglected by this organization for over a decade, I think that this team has the ability to do more than just take a step out of the basement. The AFC East is in disarray right now with the *Pats window nearly closed, the Jests are more dysfunctional than Larry David's dating life, and the Dolphins overspent themselves into a corner by betting the farm on a very unimpressive young QB.

 

The defense has the talent on paper to turn things around in a hurry but once again it'll come down to the QB play. For the first time in a long time I feel like there's hope. If a couple things bounce their way and this team could find itself on the right side of 8 wins this year and chasing a WC spot.

Wow TGreg you sound me like on here 2 seasons ago. Until Chan/Fitz totally malfunctioned. I like some stuff I am hearing this year but living through the past..... I will wait and see but I am a bit more optimistic and like the direction.