reddogblitz Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm for taking the best player we can at 8. You need studs to win. Quality over quantity. I'd rather have one really good guy than 2 pretty good guys. We should be able to get a starter at 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWinzChampionshipz Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 would having 32 picks in the 7th round produce a higher probability of finding successful players than having 10 picks in the first round. BOOM lol not at all bruh... My point being obviously is that in the 2nd round there is great talent to be found... 3rd is runner up to the 2nd but once you get to the 4th round of the draft is where even Mayock's excitement drops... It's pretty much hit or miss on any player of the draft no matter which round it is but clearly the 1st two is where the so called "Elite" players are most drafted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#34fan Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 (edited) Alright, we're down to bare bones... On the bright side, the draft is right around the corner... That means there's at least the POTENTIAL for us to reload in a very short amount of time. I realize that's not much, but it's something... As another poster pointed out, we lost a host of perrennial losers in the past few weeks. -That in itself, is a HUGE positive. Now, if we could just get rid of Buddy..... Edited March 18, 2013 by #34fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm guessing that (in general) NFL FO's that have a strong belief in their Scouting Dept, and their ability to find players are far more willing to risk trading down...If you have belief, more picks means more chances to hit a home run...There are very good NFL players Drafted well into the 2nd round on average...Sure the odds of finding a quality starter decline rapidly as you move down, but I think the good FO's don't worry about that as much if they think it's the right time to do it... Admittedly I'm unsure of the statistics on this theory... As you likely know, I have done a few studies on drafting success rates......and found that each position has a different success rate. The LB & OG positions seemed to have the same success rate, both for starter and elite calibre player throughout the 1st round.......while QB seemed to have the same success rate through picks 5-32. WRs & OT had a distinct drop off(which is what one would typically expect.....though it is not actually typical for all positions). If one were to purely look at selecting WRs......and using the trade value chart......here is how things would pan out. Pick 8 is roughly equal to the Rams 16 & 46 picks. According to my study(http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155410-drafting-success-wr/?do=findComment&comment=2718875).... Pick 8 would be a 29% chance for a solid starter......22% chance for him to become an Elite player. Pick 16 would be a 21% chance for solid starter.....13% chance for Elite player. Pick 46 would be a 13% chance for solid starter......3% chance for Elite player. Combining the chances..... Picks 16 & 46 would be a 31% chance for at least 1 solid starter.....15.6% chance for at least 1 Elite starter. As you can see, there is a better chance to obtain a solid starter by trading down.....plus the chance of 2 solid starters.....but the chance to hit a home run are reduced. In regards to 1st round LBs & QBs(after pick 4)......it would actually make sense to always trade down inside the 1st if you have a high 1st round pick and were after these positions. It seems apparent that the scouts can recognize the better prospects......as the 2nd round success rate for both LB & particularly QB are greatly reduced......but they cannot differentiate very well between those players that they grade as 1st rounders. QB data: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155235-drafting-success-qb/ LB data: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155307-drafting-success-lb/ IMO, the OP was on the right track. If the Bills have rated several QBs as 1st round prospects(with none being of Elite prospect talent).....and they believe that at least one will definitely be available at a later part in the 1st round........the best scenario(based upon my drafting history analytics) would be to trade down picking up 2 later 1st round picks.....taking a QB(which will likely have the same chance of becoming Elite as a QB selected at #8).....and also take a LB(who will also have a similar chance of success as a LB selected at #8). You got a point on that... Maybe I should have just named the thread "I am no scout but..." and left it at that minus the statistic part... But about your "when we should get a QB statement you made, we can easily grab a QB with our 1st round pick if we had three 2nd round picks after that... We can grab a QB with the 1st round pick if we even had TWO 2nd round picks after that... See above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 would having 32 picks in the 7th round produce a higher probability of finding successful players than having 10 picks in the first round. BOOM yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALF Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Rumor section on bills forum, senior member posts that Marrone wants EJ Manuel with 8th pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Rumor section on bills forum, senior member posts that Marrone wants EJ Manuel with 8th pick Well, that's what I said the Bills should do (on Friday I think). I guess Marrone is smarter than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris heff Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Dibs nailed it. Probability-wise, the more players they draft, the more chances they get at having a player that pans out. However, in general, the lower the pick, the lower the odds of that particular pick panning out. So in a vacuum, it's basically wash. The question is: Would you prefer quality over quantity? Not to bash the OP at all because it's an interesting idea (though a little convoluted the way it was presented), but it would be interesting to see a statistical analysis of draft position vs performance. Here's some food for thought: http://www.sph.umn.edu/faculty1/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/rr2010-022.pdf http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/ Both of these are interesting reads, the first, however is dated, because it was written before the rookie pay scale was in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 As you likely know, I have done a few studies on drafting success rates......and found that each position has a different success rate. The LB & OG positions seemed to have the same success rate, both for starter and elite calibre player throughout the 1st round.......while QB seemed to have the same success rate through picks 5-32. WRs & OT had a distinct drop off(which is what one would typically expect.....though it is not actually typical for all positions). If one were to purely look at selecting WRs......and using the trade value chart......here is how things would pan out. Pick 8 is roughly equal to the Rams 16 & 46 picks. According to my study(http://forums.twobil...r/#entry2718875).... Pick 8 would be a 29% chance for a solid starter......22% chance for him to become an Elite player. Pick 16 would be a 21% chance for solid starter.....13% chance for Elite player. Pick 46 would be a 13% chance for solid starter......3% chance for Elite player. Combining the chances..... Picks 16 & 46 would be a 31% chance for at least 1 solid starter.....15.6% chance for at least 1 Elite starter. As you can see, there is a better chance to obtain a solid starter by trading down.....plus the chance of 2 solid starters.....but the chance to hit a home run are reduced. In regards to 1st round LBs & QBs(after pick 4)......it would actually make sense to always trade down inside the 1st if you have a high 1st round pick and were after these positions. It seems apparent that the scouts can recognize the better prospects......as the 2nd round success rate for both LB & particularly QB are greatly reduced......but they cannot differentiate very well between those players that they grade as 1st rounders. QB data: http://forums.twobil...ing-success-qb/ LB data: http://forums.twobil...ing-success-lb/ IMO, the OP was on the right track. If the Bills have rated several QBs as 1st round prospects(with none being of Elite prospect talent).....and they believe that at least one will definitely be available at a later part in the 1st round........the best scenario(based upon my drafting history analytics) would be to trade down picking up 2 later 1st round picks.....taking a QB(which will likely have the same chance of becoming Elite as a QB selected at #8).....and also take a LB(who will also have a similar chance of success as a LB selected at #8). Agreed... I think the whole issue here is that the Bills, at least the Buddy Nix-led Bills, don't show the type of confidence it takes to make a move like this...They utilize the Draft like they are scared to miss out on a single guy...But history has shown us that, especially in the first few rounds, Buddy's targets were not always the right guy to begin with...So the moral of the story to me at least is...If you just stay put and Draft, you better Draft the right guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Agreed... I think the whole issue here is that the Bills, at least the Buddy Nix-led Bills, don't show the type of confidence it takes to make a move like this...They utilize the Draft like they are scared to miss out on a single guy...But history has shown us that, especially in the first few rounds, Buddy's targets were not always the right guy to begin with...So the moral of the story to me at least is...If you just stay put and Draft, you better Draft the right guy... The overarching problem for the Nix reign is not its draft strategy. The core problem is his ability to evaluate players per se. Buddy has clearly stated that he prefers sticking to his draft turn because he is not willing to gamble with losing his player (as you noted). Whether one agrees with that approach or not there is at least a logic to it. The only time I recall Nix maneuvering in the draft is when he made the small maneuver of trading up for T.J. Graham, a player many people believed would have been available at a lower draft round. Does it make sense for a team with so many holes to trade down and acquire more picks? Absolutely. But when your GM has a very limited comfort zone is it smart to ask him to act outside of his his abilities? Do you expect someone who is not a strategic thinker to behave strategically? When Ralph Wilson selected Nix to be his GM he got what he selected i.e. a person with a simplistic outlook for a multi-faceted and complex job. Ralph Wilson selecting an ill-equipped candidate to run his billion dollar business is not a surprise, it is the norm for this odd owner. There is a number of different philosophies to building a successful franchise. Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, San Fran, NY Giants have different approaches to roster building. However, the underpinning to their successes is the same. Each of these organizations has a high level of ability to evaluate players. That is what is lacking for this franchise located in western NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 So our odds of selecting a player of value at any given pick increase in relation to the number of picks we have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I believe Barkley will be there at #8 but I highly doubt (especially with the hype he's getting lately) that Geno Smith will be there at 8... Geno is the only QB i would use the #8 pick on... The second proposed move I suggested was from moving anywhere from 10-19 to 21-32 and picking up an ADDITIONAL 2nd rounder... We would still have a 1st rounder (late) and three 2nd round picks (which would be unlikely to happen)... But on that note I definitely would like to trade down at least once... Lol... The stat is that based on our recent draft history, it would be statistically better for us to find talent with two or even three 2nd round picks rather than just one... Buddy has 1 good 2nd rd pick (Glenn). It's likely that we traded our 1 chance at getting a really good player (#8) for crap. I'm always happy with trading down, but I'd prefer geno, Barkley or Jarvis this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWinzChampionshipz Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 As you likely know, I have done a few studies on drafting success rates......and found that each position has a different success rate. The LB & OG positions seemed to have the same success rate, both for starter and elite calibre player throughout the 1st round.......while QB seemed to have the same success rate through picks 5-32. WRs & OT had a distinct drop off(which is what one would typically expect.....though it is not actually typical for all positions). If one were to purely look at selecting WRs......and using the trade value chart......here is how things would pan out. Pick 8 is roughly equal to the Rams 16 & 46 picks. According to my study(http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155410-drafting-success-wr/?do=findComment&comment=2718875).... Pick 8 would be a 29% chance for a solid starter......22% chance for him to become an Elite player. Pick 16 would be a 21% chance for solid starter.....13% chance for Elite player. Pick 46 would be a 13% chance for solid starter......3% chance for Elite player. Combining the chances..... Picks 16 & 46 would be a 31% chance for at least 1 solid starter.....15.6% chance for at least 1 Elite starter. As you can see, there is a better chance to obtain a solid starter by trading down.....plus the chance of 2 solid starters.....but the chance to hit a home run are reduced. In regards to 1st round LBs & QBs(after pick 4)......it would actually make sense to always trade down inside the 1st if you have a high 1st round pick and were after these positions. It seems apparent that the scouts can recognize the better prospects......as the 2nd round success rate for both LB & particularly QB are greatly reduced......but they cannot differentiate very well between those players that they grade as 1st rounders. QB data: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155235-drafting-success-qb/ LB data: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155307-drafting-success-lb/ IMO, the OP was on the right track. If the Bills have rated several QBs as 1st round prospects(with none being of Elite prospect talent).....and they believe that at least one will definitely be available at a later part in the 1st round........the best scenario(based upon my drafting history analytics) would be to trade down picking up 2 later 1st round picks.....taking a QB(which will likely have the same chance of becoming Elite as a QB selected at #8).....and also take a LB(who will also have a similar chance of success as a LB selected at #8). See above. You my friend are thee "statistic" king... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 A guy says "I know statistics", yet calls himself defensezwinschampionships? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meathead Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 this was supposed to be a discussion about statistics with no statistics and dibs goes and ruins it with statistics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWinzChampionshipz Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 A guy says "I know statistics", yet calls himself defensezwinschampionships? Ok dude check this s..t out... I clearly f...in named the title wrong... Here's an example for you... Your mother can clearly be a teacher and then be a stripper at night right? A person who calls himself defensewinzchampionshipz has nothing to do with anything else... Wat the !@#$ is your point? this was supposed to be a discussion about statistics with no statistics and dibs goes and ruins it with statistics Here's another stat for you... You put Mr. Weo and myself to fight a thousand times, I go 999-1000... The only win he gets is because I kneel on the floor and tap out on the last fight and pray to God to not let this man suffer anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 (edited) Ok dude check this s..t out... I clearly f...in named the title wrong... Here's an example for you... Your mother can clearly be a teacher and then be a stripper at night right? A person who calls himself defensewinzchampionshipz has nothing to do with anything else... Wat the !@#$ is your point? OH HELLO....momma jokes are out.. Here's another stat for you... You put Mr. Weo and myself to fight a thousand times, I go 999-1000... The only win he gets is because I kneel on the floor and tap out on the last fight and pray to God to not let this man suffer anymore... 999-1000 your just like the 18-1 pats defense...........don't be forgotten with your 1 loss. but yea might wanna clean that up to 999-1. you look like a fighter whose 1 game under .500 as is.......that is a lot of beatdowns. Edited March 18, 2013 by Ryan L Billz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Ok dude check this s..t out... I clearly f...in named the title wrong... Here's an example for you... Your mother can clearly be a teacher and then be a stripper at night right? A person who calls himself defensewinzchampionshipz has nothing to do with anything else... Wat the !@#$ is your point? Here's another stat for you... You put Mr. Weo and myself to fight a thousand times, I go 999-1000... The only win he gets is because I kneel on the floor and tap out on the last fight and pray to God to not let this man suffer anymore... Well, my point was that defense doesn't win championships. Anyway, go on with this idiotic thread and your "yo mamma" stuff and your tough guy routine (I think you meant you go 999-1, or 999/1000, not 999-1000). It's a slow day and I need entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoho Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Ok dude check this s..t out... I clearly f...in named the title wrong... Here's an example for you... Your mother can clearly be a teacher and then be a stripper at night right? A person who calls himself defensewinzchampionshipz has nothing to do with anything else... Wat the !@#$ is your point? Here's another stat for you... You put Mr. Weo and myself to fight a thousand times, I go 999-1000... The only win he gets is because I kneel on the floor and tap out on the last fight and pray to God to not let this man suffer anymore... Did someone really answer a post with his prediction of who would win if they had a fight (or a thousand fights)? All I can say to you is "Oh Yeah". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Well, my point was that defense doesn't win championships. Anyway, go on with this idiotic thread and your "yo mamma" stuff and your tough guy routine (I think you meant you go 999-1, or 999/1000, not 999-1000). It's a slow day and I need entertainment. Why can't you just take it at face value and understand that if your mother is a teacher she may also be a stripper, and were Defense to fight you one thousand times you would win one thousand times, but he would win 999 of those fights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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