Good Article On Chip Kelly & Taking Risk On 4th Down

[BiggieScooby]

Can't help but think, could taking a little more risk and trying outside of the box thinking help Chan Gailey turn things around? Sure! Will he do it? Probably not.

 

My personal argument is even with 7 guys in the box, CJ, Fred & Tashard could probably get it to 4th & 2 or less on 75% of all offensive possessions simply lining up with 5 offensive linemen, 2 tight ends, and 1 wideout, with Corey McIntrye lead blocking.

 

http://www.thepostga...-revolution-nfl

[CFLstyle]

This is a great point.

 

I was listening to a program on our sports radio here in Toronto a couple of weeks ago, and they were talking about the psychology of coaches in the NFL, and how they very rarely take risks because they're coaching for their jobs. Generally the textbook has become 'punt or kick on fourth and one', and to be conservative most of the time.

 

So I guess the idea is if they feel like they're going by the textbook they're less likely to be criticized.

 

I thought of this during the Titans game when they kicked a field goal on fourth and one near the red zone, I remember getting very frustrated because the running backs were dominating and it was a high-scoring game. Three points did little good, and they were moving the ball so well, why not keep it going?

 

I keep thinking, if I were a coach, most of the time I'd probably go for fourth and three or less if I'm across midfield -- obviously depending on the score of the game and the situation. Who knows though, maybe it's different in the shoes of an NFL head coach.

 

Basically my mentality on fourth down is this: if you don't think you can get a single yard, or even two or three yards, then why bother playing the game? The average play is much higher than a yard that's for sure. The odds are in your favour. That seems to be Chip's thought process too.

Edited November 8, 2012 by CFLstyle

[CardinalScotts]

College football is predictable and a game of mismatches...1 or 2 guys who might make it in the NFL on a guy who isnt even on scholarship.....NFL they are all good

[drinkTHEkoolaid]

If a coach is willing to be unconventional and plan to go for it on 4th down it could change their entire play calling strategy.

[Best Player Available]

All Hail the Chipster!!!

[Section242]

Gailey would rather have Fitz throw than to hand the ball to Spiller or Jackson. It shouldn't even be Spiller or Jackson just Spiller. Mike Schopp always calls for this.

[NoSaint]

This is a great point.

 

I was listening to a program on our sports radio here in Toronto a couple of weeks ago, and they were talking about the psychology of coaches in the NFL, and how they very rarely take risks because they're coaching for their jobs. Generally the textbook has become 'punt or kick on fourth and one', and to be conservative most of the time.

 

So I guess the idea is if they feel like they're going by the textbook they're less likely to be criticized.

 

I thought of this during the Titans game when they kicked a field goal on fourth and one near the red zone, I remember getting very frustrated because the running backs were dominating and it was a high-scoring game. Three points did little good, and they were moving the ball so well, why not keep it going?

 

I keep thinking, if I were a coach, most of the time I'd probably go for fourth and three or less if I'm across midfield -- obviously depending on the score of the game and the situation. Who knows though, maybe it's different in the shoes of an NFL head coach.

 

Basically my mentality on fourth down is this: if you don't think you can get a single yard, or even two or three yards, then why bother playing the game? The average play is much higher than a yard that's for sure. The odds are in your favour. That seems to be Chip's thought process too.

 

There's a balance. Average yardage per play tightens up as each yard gets more important too (for instance on 3rd/4th and 1). Explosive plays being big numbers vs even the worst losses being small also effects that perception.

 

I think generally coaches are overly conservative, but I don't think it's as bad as some of us arm chair GMs make it out to be. You miss a couple of those shots in a row and you can get knocked out of a game real quick.

[Dragonborn10]

There is a massive difference between fourth and inches and fourth and 2. I can not recall a QB sneak for fourth and inches failing. I'm sure it has but I can not remember a single attempt failing. Fourth and two is much different. That is not a QB sneak play. If it is a run it involves a hand off in the backfield. Not infrequently DB's and safeties are coming off the edge and disrupting the play in the backfield as the defense play man with no safety over the top figuring it will be a run.

That being said 4th and 2 on the opponents 37 early in the game I say go for it. How often do you see a punt for a ttouch-backand all you net is 17 yards. If you are playing with a lead sure maybe you try to pin them deep. But a missed FG is worse than failing to get the first down.

The best idea is to know ahead of time that if they are facing a fourth and short the QB can go no huddle and try to get the defense to at least burn a time-out or catch them unprepared. Oregon does that very very well.

[TheBlackMamba]

http://www.thepostga...-revolution-nfl

 

Just read this article on Chip Kelly, and how basically he has revolutionzed college football based on mathematics. He goes for it on 4th and short, almost never kicks fg's or punts, goes for onsides kicks, etc.. all based on mathematics.

 

The article goes on how to mention how the Dolphins went 1-18 in their previous 19 games but implemented the wildcat they went 11-3 on their way to winning the division and making the playoffs. The wildcat was thought of as a gimmick but now 50% of teams run some sort of variation of it.

 

If Chip Kelly were to come to the NFL his style would be though of as a gimmick until he starts winning. Not saying he would come to Buffalo because why would he leave Oregon, where he can field a national championship contender every year, incredible facilities pretty and pretty awesome uni's. (The article also mentions that he turned down Tampa last year because he had "unfinished business" at Oregon. So good luck trying to get him to come to Buffalo)

 

This is exactly what the Bills need to break out of the irrevelant malayse they're in. They need creativity. They need to do something different. If you're going to go 5-11, 6-10, 7-9 do it being creative so than you have something to build of off, instead of finishing .500 or worse EVERY year.

 

This "Moneyball" revolution for footbal would be a great way to attract FA's, coaches, young front office talent to want to be here.

 

I know it will likely never happen but just an idea.

Edited November 8, 2012 by TheBlackMamba

[CodeMonkey]

Can you imagine old school Buddy Nix hiring a radical coach like this?

[BuffOrange]

This is a great point.

 

I was listening to a program on our sports radio here in Toronto a couple of weeks ago, and they were talking about the psychology of coaches in the NFL, and how they very rarely take risks because they're coaching for their jobs. Generally the textbook has become 'punt or kick on fourth and one', and to be conservative most of the time.

 

So I guess the idea is if they feel like they're going by the textbook they're less likely to be criticized.

 

This is unequestionably true. Ron Rivera took comparatively little heat for a gutless punt in Atlanta than other coaches have for 4th downs that failed.

[inkman]

Just read this article on Chip Kelly, and how basically he has revolutionzed college football based on mathematics. He goes for it on 4th and short, almost never kicks fg's or punts, goes for onsides kicks, etc.. all based on mathematics.

Mathematics dictates teams should kick onsides every time. Does Oregon?

 

The article goes on how to mention how the Dolphins went 1-18 in their previous 19 games but implemented the wildcat they went 11-3 on their way to winning the division and making the playoffs. The wildcat was thought of as a gimmick but now 50% of teams run some sort of variation of it.

The wildcat is dying in the NFL because it's much more easily defended in the NFL with bigger faster players at all positions.

 

 

This is exactly what the Bills need to break out of the irrevelant malayse they're in. They need creativity. They need to do something different. If you're going to go 5-11, 6-10, 7-9 do it being creative so than you have something to build of off, instead of finishing .500 or worse EVERY year.

 

This "Moneyball" revolution for footbal would be a great way to attract FA's, coaches, young front office talent to want to be here.

 

I know it will likely never happen but just an idea.

If we're going to use "mathematics", the odds are severely slanted against Chip being a success in the NFL. He will not have the luxury of recruiting every blue chip prospect within 1000 miles because of cool looking Uni's and playing against over matched defenses on a weekly basis.

[Haven Moses]

Chip Kelly is not from the south.

[TheBlackMamba]

Mathematics dictates teams should kick onsides every time. Does Oregon?

 

 

The wildcat is dying in the NFL because it's much more easily defended in the NFL with bigger faster players at all positions.

 

 

 

If we're going to use "mathematics", the odds are severely slanted against Chip being a success in the NFL. He will not have the luxury of recruiting every blue chip prospect within 1000 miles because of cool looking Uni's and playing against over matched defenses on a weekly basis.

 

Did you read the article? Or are you just trying to poke holes in it for f#$ks sake?

 

No, he doesn't go for onsides kicks everytime but he opts to do so when the mathematical odds are in his favor.

 

The article wasn't suggesting the wildcat is effective. It was stating that a team that went 1-15 the previous year and started 0-2, used a "gimmick" formation and proceeded to go 11-3 and to a division title. It was something DIFFERENT and CREATIVE to break them out of their 1-17 stetch. Something the NFL hadn't seen before.

 

The article isnt about the spread offense. It's about his style and how its already making it's way into the NFL. The same two astrophysicists that Chip Kelly gets his data from, consulted with Bill Bellichek and Sean Payton (two of the more aggresive coaches in the NFL). Bellicheck and Payton goes for it more often than not on 4th and short. I think an untimely onside kick helped win Payton a Super Bowl...

 

Wouldn't you like to try it out and try something DIFFERENT and CREATIVE for your team? See the thing with the Bills is throughout the last 12 years, they havent done anything creative and have still managed to suck. If you're going to suck, at least be entertaining and try to build on something on your way to no sucking anymore.

Edited November 8, 2012 by TheBlackMamba

[Sisyphean Bills]

Mathematics dictates teams should kick onsides every time. Does Oregon?

 

The wildcat is dying in the NFL because it's much more easily defended in the NFL with bigger faster players at all positions.

 

If we're going to use "mathematics", the odds are severely slanted against Chip being a success in the NFL. He will not have the luxury of recruiting every blue chip prospect within 1000 miles because of cool looking Uni's and playing against over matched defenses on a weekly basis.

 

Actually, Oregon doesn't get the best athletes. If you look at how they do in the draft, many of their better players fall well down the draft board. LaMichael James, who was Kelly's most dynamic player at Oregon, went in the 2nd round. Compare that to USC's track record.

 

Still, I tend to agree that it would be rather difficult to recreate the system at the NFL level. You can fake some of the people out of their jocks some of the time, but not the best of the best all of the time.

[inkman]

Did you read the article? Or are you just trying to poke holes in it for f#$ks sake?

I read it. I'm all for the "moneyball" approach using advanced stats for decision making in the NFL. The problem is, Chip Kelley won't have the luxury of having players bigger, faster (and I mean WAYYY faster), and stronger across the board. I'm not arguing that it won't work. It's a hell of a lot easier going for it on 4th and 2 with LeMichael James in your back field going against defenses filled with future grocery store clerks than it is in the NFL going against Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, and Ed Reed.

 

I think the old guard in the NFL is antiquated in their decision making. Punting inside your own 40 let alone 50, moronic. Kicking field goals inside your own 5 let alone the 20 yard line, idiotic. Every game there are a dozen times coaches make these calls. If they did the opposite, half the fan base would want them tar and feathered. It will change but it's going to be cultural. It's going to have to come from the top down. It's a lot easier to make these calls with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers than Ryan Fitzpatrick or Michael Vick.

 

Actually, Oregon doesn't get the best athletes. If you look at how they do in the draft, many of their better players fall well down the draft board. LaMichael James, who was Kelly's most dynamic player at Oregon, went in the 2nd round. Compare that to USC's track record.

While I know where you are going with this, I'd still argue that he gets his share of the best COLLEGE athletes. Unfortunately, most of them are not adequately sized for the NFL.

Edited November 8, 2012 by inkman

[PatsFanNH]

BlackMamba,

 

The Phins EXAMPLE is scewed and the writer KNOWS it, The year they introduced the wildcat and "changed" their fortuins was hmm the same year Brady went down with his ACL... Brady stays healthy the Phins are HOME for the playoffs. (I don't think I am being a Pats Homer thinking Brady win ONE more game than Cassell right?)

 

Also 50% of NFL teams use the wildcats, now lets look at the teams that dont and see if we see a comman thread ok?

 

NE

Indy

Houston

Baltimore

Pittsburg

SD

Denver (W Manning)

NY Giants

Atlanta

Green Bay

Chicago

Detroit

 

 

Do I have to continue the teams that are contenders dont need the WILDCAT gimmick... IMO this guys style be a disaster and he go 1-15 with a bad club he would inherit.

Edited November 8, 2012 by PatsFanNH

[filthymcnasty08]

BlackMamba,

 

The Phins EXAMPLE is scewed and the writer KNOWS it, The year they introduced the wildcat and "changed" their fortuins was hmm the same year Brady went down with his ACL... Brady stays healthy the Phins are HOME for the playoffs. (I don't think I am being a Pats Homer thinking Brady win ONE more game than Cassell right?)

 

Also 50% of NFL teams use the wildcats, now lets look at the teams that dont and see if we see a comman thread ok?

 

NE

Indy

Houston

Baltimore

Pittsburg

SD

Denver (W Manning)

NY Giants

Atlanta

Green Bay

Chicago

Detroit

 

 

Do I have to continue the teams that are contenders dont need the WILDCAT gimmick... IMO this guys style be a disaster and he go 1-15 with a bad club he would inherit.

 

Well played.

[bmur66]

The math has never been a secret. Problem is no coach in the NFL has the coyones to do it.

[NoSaint]

The math has never been a secret. Problem is no coach in the NFL has the coyones to do it.

The math is also not as simple - individual matchups, situational issues, etc..... Make it harder to pull the trigger. Coaches definitely err on the side of conservative but its often a tough call.

[Sisyphean Bills]

While I know where you are going with this, I'd still argue that he gets his share of the best COLLEGE athletes. Unfortunately, most of them are not adequately sized for the NFL.

 

I don't disagree that the Ducks recruit good players for their system. A lot of that has to do with success on the field (and maybe Nike giving them new uniforms every week). Still, I wouldn't just dismiss the system entirely and say the success is based solely on the top shelf athletes. Darron Thomas won two conference titles as the Ducks QB, wasn't drafted, and is out of football I believe. Critically, he was simply never all that good and his success was a product of their system. Before dismissing the system, it should be said that their style of offense is (was) different enough that it is extremely difficult for other college teams to get properly prepared to stop it in a week or so. On the other hand, success breeds copycats and we're seeing many of the same principles being used all across the country. Nobody stands still...

[TheBlackMamba]

BlackMamba,

 

The Phins EXAMPLE is scewed and the writer KNOWS it, The year they introduced the wildcat and "changed" their fortuins was hmm the same year Brady went down with his ACL... Brady stays healthy the Phins are HOME for the playoffs. (I don't think I am being a Pats Homer thinking Brady win ONE more game than Cassell right?)

 

Also 50% of NFL teams use the wildcats, now lets look at the teams that dont and see if we see a comman thread ok?

 

NE

Indy

Houston

Baltimore

Pittsburg

SD

Denver (W Manning)

NY Giants

Atlanta

Green Bay

Chicago

Detroit

 

 

Do I have to continue the teams that are contenders dont need the WILDCAT gimmick... IMO this guys style be a disaster and he go 1-15 with a bad club he would inherit.

 

Again this isnt about running the wildcat. It was using the wildcat as a comparison as to how the NFL is a copycat league and how if something leads to wins for one team, others are sure to follow.

 

Read the entire post instead of taking tidbits out and trying to debunk it.

Edited November 8, 2012 by TheBlackMamba

[Mr. WEO]

This is a great point.

 

I was listening to a program on our sports radio here in Toronto a couple of weeks ago, and they were talking about the psychology of coaches in the NFL, and how they very rarely take risks because they're coaching for their jobs. .

 

Well, clearly Gailey isn't coaching for his job.

[Best Player Available]

Can you imagine old school Buddy Nix hiring a radical coach like this?

No. But in Nix's defense Kelly wouldn't even return his call.

[Sisyphean Bills]

No. But in Nix's defense Kelly wouldn't even return his call.

 

He was getting a lot of calls at the time. Maybe posting his cell phone number with "For a good time call..." in the rest room on I-90 wasn't such a great plan.

[BuffOrange]

The math is also not as simple - individual matchups, situational issues, etc..... Make it harder to pull the trigger. Coaches definitely err on the side of conservative but its often a tough call.

 

That's largely a cop-out. Yes sometimes the individual matchups & situational issues are to the advantage of the defense. But sometimes they aren't. Like when you have Cam Newton on your team - the best 4th&short QB in NFL history. Or this year's Bills OL vs the Titans defense.

[BuffOrange]

BlackMamba,

 

The Phins EXAMPLE is scewed and the writer KNOWS it, The year they introduced the wildcat and "changed" their fortuins was hmm the same year Brady went down with his ACL... Brady stays healthy the Phins are HOME for the playoffs. (I don't think I am being a Pats Homer thinking Brady win ONE more game than Cassell right?)

 

Also 50% of NFL teams use the wildcats, now lets look at the teams that dont and see if we see a comman thread ok?

 

NE

Indy

Houston

Baltimore

Pittsburg

SD

Denver (W Manning)

NY Giants

Atlanta

Green Bay

Chicago

Detroit

 

 

Do I have to continue the teams that are contenders dont need the WILDCAT gimmick... IMO this guys style be a disaster and he go 1-15 with a bad club he would inherit.

 

I see this point get made a lot, for what reasons I don't know. The point is what - that you're better off with Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers than with Ryan Fitzpatrick or Mark Sanchez? No way! The 2008 Dolphins did not have Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, so they had to try to win with what they had. And they were pretty successful at it @11-5, regardless of whether NE would've won more games with their starting qb.

[nemhoff]

There's a reason they call him Big Ball's Chip

[T master]

If you want it you have to go get it & that means taking chances . So let's just take a chance & call Chip Kelly & ask him if he want s to be our coach , all's he can say is no ... Right ???

 

But it was a great point and to add by going for it how much are you telling your offense that you believe in them ? What kind of a confidence booster is that ?

 

And when you have 2 guys in the back field like we have Why not ??

 

Plus if you are down around the 20 say 25 or less & you need a score & it has to be more than 3 to go ahead GO FOR IT !! If you don't make it it's the same as kicking it & getting a touch back or running it out with less of a possibility of running it all the way back for a TD .

 

So be a little more aggressive & put the confidence in the people you hired to get the job done & send them the message that you believe in their ability's !!!

[Turbosrrgood]

Can't help but think, could taking a little more risk and trying outside of the box thinking help Chan Gailey turn things around? Sure! Will he do it? Probably not.

 

My personal argument is even with 7 guys in the box, CJ, Fred & Tashard could probably get it to 4th & 2 or less on 75% of all offensive possessions simply lining up with 5 offensive linemen, 2 tight ends, and 1 wideout, with Corey McIntrye lead blocking.

 

http://www.thepostga...-revolution-nfl

 

I'm a big Chip Kelly fan. However Gailey is not Chip Kelly, he simply can't pull it off. I still like the idea though.

 

Some of the most painful moments for me as a Bills fan was when Jauron would decide to punt from the 30-45 yard line, on a 4th and 2. The Bills would then proceed to punt into the end zone for a negligible net gain. I'd go for points, as opposed to 10-25 yards in field position every time.

Edited November 9, 2012 by Turbosrrgood

[Bronc24]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/09/people-close-to-oregons-chip-kelly-think-hes-heading-to-the-nfl/

 

If he hired a young, aggressive coordinator, I'd be in heaven if we got him.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Be about as successful as Steve Spurrier...

[BillsBiker]

No way..

 

Bruce Ariean.. 2 time super bowl champ with running steelers offence

 

5-1 with Colts this year..

 

get him

[BiggieScooby]

Chip Kelly would be stupid to come to Buffalo. If he were to come to Buffalo he would immediately lose lots of credibility. More importantly I'm pretty sure he'd look at our roster and say no way. Maybe after we draft a QB with the #1 overall pick in 2013 we'll be good. Geno Smith might bring a few folks to Buffalo.

[T master]

Well if we want to have a snow balls chance in hell of getting some one like this we need to send some one like our own Kelly out to start this conversation !

 

Jerry , Bud & a host of others will be after this guy when they read this & i can bet you that jerry will mortgage the farm to get this guy .

 

Ralph is to out of it to send Buddy out to get some one this good but this is the type of guy we need ! The only thing that we might have in our favor is that he 1) likes a challenge & 2) always routes for the underdog !!!

[robkmil]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/09/people-close-to-oregons-chip-kelly-think-hes-heading-to-the-nfl/

 

he does things differently, if we start over with a new HC atleast it will be fun to watch.

[Astrobot]

Chip Kelly's an attractive idea, but he succeeds in part because of the fast players he recruits. Everybody's fast in the NFL. Some don't "play fast", according to Kyle Williams.

[Rob T from OP]

I think who ever thinks Chip Kelly would become Head coach of the Buffalo Bills is in Fantasyland. There is no way he would leave his job as one of the best football colleges on the west coast to coach one of the most disfunctional professional football teams in history only get fired in three yrs......

Edited November 10, 2012 by Rob T from OP

[KRT88]

Why, why would Chip Kelly leave all the Phil Knight money and Oregon? He's highly paid, his next contract will be much bigger, the uniforms Phily boy provides does a lot of his recruiting for him. He plays an untempo offense which attracts elite athletes, so what's his motivation? He's in no danger of getting fired any time soon so why would he give that up to take such a risky job with a risky franchise that could move soon?

[drinkTHEkoolaid]

Yes.