Who's a Bust ??

[finknottle]

I like Spiller, think he's turned it around and may be the best RM *at this moment.* But I still do not like the pick.

 

From a business perspective, we signed him to a 5 year, $25 million dollar deal (let's ignore the escalation, for simplicity). After 5 years, who knows? At best, a new and richer contract, and at worst he's done. RB's have the shortest shelf-life in the NFL. So we need to ask ourselves what kind of productivity we expect from that $25 million dollars, and what is he on track for?

 

Spiller is almost halfway through his contract (2 and a quarter seasons). He has career 1,152 yards rushing, 540 yards receiving. If the contracted ended now, we'd have paid 11 millions dollars for 1,700 yards - about $6,450 a yard. Remember, money spent on one position is money not available for others.

 

In contrast, in 2009 the most productive bargins were about $500 a yard:

1. Chris Johnson - $191

2. Ray Rice - $287

3. Jamaal Charles - $343

4. Rashard Mendenhall - $347

5. Matt Forte - $414

6. Fred Jackson - $470

7. Adrian Peterson - $545

8. DeAngelo Williams - $577

9. Pierre Thomas - $580

10. Jerome Harrison - $620

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/428604-bang-for-your-buck-the-10-most-productive-rbs-for-thier-salary

These numbers are a bit apples-to-oranges because they are 2009 dollars, are base salary (I think), and may not include receiving yards... But the point is still made. If I want efficient productivity out of the running back position, it has to be a lot of yards for a reasonable amount of money. Spiller has been a terrible ROI so far. He'll need to catch up with two 2,000 yard seasons over his remaining contract before I'll consider that 5 year roster spot and $25 million well spent.

 

Assuming he takes over from Jackson sooner rather than later and plays exceptionally, I'm guessing that Spiller finishes his 5 years having contributed 4,000 yards rushing and 2,000 yards receiving. At $25 million, that's over $4,000 a yard. No thanks.

[/dev/null]

Busts? How about Christina Hendricks

http://media-cache-ec6.pinterest.com/upload/26810560252970498_KOaFF4hc_b.jpg

[justnzane]

Busts? How about Christina Hendricks

http://media-cache-e..._KOaFF4hc_b.jpg

 

eww... gingers... they have no souls!

 

back to point, I saw Spiller as a poor choice, but the only other players that would have made any sense and have panned out in the next 10 picks are Anthony Davis and JPP.

[Shoto]

DeHavens is a bust on his second term as special teams coach, he is a shell of a coach of what he was in the early 90s. Just an old man with a whistle. Cutting Moorman was foolish.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I like Spiller, think he's turned it around and may be the best RM *at this moment.* But I still do not like the pick.

 

From a business perspective, we signed him to a 5 year, $25 million dollar deal (let's ignore the escalation, for simplicity). After 5 years, who knows? At best, a new and richer contract, and at worst he's done. RB's have the shortest shelf-life in the NFL. So we need to ask ourselves what kind of productivity we expect from that $25 million dollars, and what is he on track for?

 

Spiller is almost halfway through his contract (2 and a quarter seasons). He has career 1,152 yards rushing, 540 yards receiving. If the contracted ended now, we'd have paid 11 millions dollars for 1,700 yards - about $6,450 a yard. Remember, money spent on one position is money not available for others.

 

In contrast, in 2009 the most productive bargins were about $500 a yard:

1. Chris Johnson - $191

2. Ray Rice - $287

3. Jamaal Charles - $343

4. Rashard Mendenhall - $347

5. Matt Forte - $414

6. Fred Jackson - $470

7. Adrian Peterson - $545

8. DeAngelo Williams - $577

9. Pierre Thomas - $580

10. Jerome Harrison - $620

http://bleacherrepor...or-thier-salary

These numbers are a bit apples-to-oranges because they are 2009 dollars, are base salary (I think), and may not include receiving yards... But the point is still made. If I want efficient productivity out of the running back position, it has to be a lot of yards for a reasonable amount of money. Spiller has been a terrible ROI so far. He'll need to catch up with two 2,000 yard seasons over his remaining contract before I'll consider that 5 year roster spot and $25 million well spent.

 

Assuming he takes over from Jackson sooner rather than later and plays exceptionally, I'm guessing that Spiller finishes his 5 years having contributed 4,000 yards rushing and 2,000 yards receiving. At $25 million, that's over $4,000 a yard. No thanks.

 

This list is more like apples to fender washers.

 

You mention the 2009 base salary and lack of receiving yards… in addition you have to consider draft position and number of years in the league.

 

On top of all that, Chris Johnson is the highest-paid running back in the league now and Ray Rice is right up there with him, both having signed huge new contracts.

 

Jerome Harrison is out of the league.

 

That list really has very little relevance.

 

Spiller should be compared to his draft classmates… Ryan Mathews and Jahvid Best. Also Dexter McCluster.

 

Also I don't agree with your assumptions for his career yardage and the idea of what his "efficiency" right now is also pointless.

 

So Donte Whitner was drafted around the same slot, has a lot more starts and many tackles. Would you say then that Whitner was a better draft pick than Spiller?

[Homey D. Clown]

When a team is perennially 6-10 or 7-9 there is no such thing as a luxury pick, it was a ridiculously stupid comment, since the team at the time had a sub-par running back in Lynch and an un-proven Fred Jackson. There is nothing that can be said to ever justify that the team had bigger needs elsewhere at the time, the team didn't just have a few small holes in the dam to fix, the team was hemorrhaging water everywhere. I said it right from the start, I was ecstatic with the pick for once.

 

and don't try to say Lynch was anything more than sub-par, his YPC had dropped below 4 at the close of 2009.

 

I am very pleased this kid is coming around, and will be one of those players that will set team records when it's all said and done if he stays healthy.

 

This thread really isn't so much a testament to CJ being a good player, but it's that the front office got it right for once, and the masses of self loathing Bills fans can't bash the pick for once. It's time to start looking at it for what it was, a great 1st round pick, given his college talents and achievements at the time, being the best player on the board at the time, AND it met a team need.

[xsoldier54]

Chan is to blame for anyone calling Spiller a bust. I wasn't thrilled with the pick although I watched a ton of his games in college and thought he was a great talent. At the time, the Bills were so talent depleted that drafting a RB, which was their strongest position, didn't make sense. But okay, if you're going to draft him then use him! Then Chan only gives the guy 70 carries his rookie year? Then he follows that up last year by only giving Spiller 21 carries through the first 10 games? The truth is, CJ has only looked great when he was able to get the ball rep after rep. When Freddy comes back, will Chan get his head out of his a** and start running the ball with both of them consistently? I don't know but if he doesn't then Chan's time should be up.

I think it took CJ until last year to figure out the NFL. Early on he thought he could use his speed to get outside like he did in college. Once he learned that he needs to run the play as designed and wait for the hole to open, he got a lot better. That is just gaining experience. I don't blame Chan for giving Fred the majority of the carries. Fred Jackson is a beast and he was one of the best players in the league. Now that CJ has more experience, we have two really good running backs. I'm sure that Gailey will find ways to get both of them some touches when they are both healthy again.

[MDH]

Spiller is a good back but you don't spend a top 10 pick to back up your starter in case he gets injured. That's all Spiller has done so far and we're 35 games into his career. Those top picks have to see the field and they have to see the field almost immediately (starting by year 2) given how much money they make.

 

Hell, with Spiller on the roster the Bills just redid Freddie's deal to give him more money - that's 2 years after Spiller was drafted. And even this year, once both are back healthy Spiller isn't going to do anything but split carries.

 

Granted, the way it's played out with the injuries it's been a blessing to have two quality backs but as I said - you don't spend a top 10 pick as an insurance policy.

 

For all those people saying, "you draft the best player available" that player does no good if he can't get on the field because the guy in front of him is better. I'd rather have had a guy who wasn't quite as good as Spiller but was better than what the Bills already had at that position and he saw the field from day one and helped the Bills improve as a team.

[hondo in seattle]

I was against the pick.

 

If I were a GM, I would NEVER draft a RB in the first round, let alone the top-10. It's an utter waste. RB's are a dime a dozen. You can get a RB in the 7th round (or undrafted) who is equally productive as a 1st round pick.

 

I am glad we have CJ, but still don't like the pick.

 

You can get a quality player at any position in the 7th round - if you're lucky. But your odds of getting a talented player are better at the beginning of a draft. And RB is important enough still in today's NFL that I would draft a RB in the 1st round under the right conditions.

 

I really disagree with "RB's are a dime a dozen." There aren't a ton of RBs as good as FredEx and CJ. We're a better team for having them then say the RBs the Pats or Jets have. I'd go far as to say Chan would have been fired if Choice was lugging the ball last year instead of Freddy and CJ - the season would have been that bad.

[finknottle]

Spiller should be compared to his draft classmates… Ryan Mathews and Jahvid Best. Also Dexter McCluster.

 

Also I don't agree with your assumptions for his career yardage and the idea of what his "efficiency" right now is also pointless.

 

Ok, I'll play.

Ryan Matthews signed a 5 year deal at $20 million. He has produced 2,445 yards for his team (1,813 rushing, 632 receiving). $3,681 a yard.

Jahvid Best signed a 5 year deal, $12.7 million. He has produced 1,719 yards (945 rushing, 774 receiving). $3,324 a yard.

Dexter McCluster signed a 4 year deal at $5.15 million. He has produced 1,271 yards (679 rushing, 592 receiving). $2,277 a yard.

 

Looks like around $3,000 a yard is the going rate in Spiller's class.

 

Spiller has produced 1,692 yards (1,152 rushing, 540 receiving). That's $6,648 a yard.

 

As for my guess at his finishing the 5 years with 4,000 yards rushing, 2,000 yards receiving, fine. Let's see your estimate.

By my calculation, for his productivity to the team to come in at $3,000 a yard over his contract, he needs to finish with 8,000 yards. 6,300 yards in the remaining 2 3/4 seasons is quite a pace.

[Tommy]

I still think we should have gotten Bulaga instead like a number of posters here had wanted. He's a dominant tackle. Looked good againt Irvin last night.

 

You mean the Bulaga that was part of the O-Line that gave up 8 sacks on Rodgers against Seattle? Irvin alone had 2 sacks. I'd be lying if I said I knew how many of the sacks were on Bulaga, but I don't know that I'd call him a dominant tackle. Spiller is showing the game-breaking ability that we drafted him for.

[QCity]

Spiller is a good back but you don't spend a top 10 pick to back up your starter in case he gets injured. That's all Spiller has done so far and we're 35 games into his career. Those top picks have to see the field and they have to see the field almost immediately (starting by year 2) given how much money they make.

 

Hell, with Spiller on the roster the Bills just redid Freddie's deal to give him more money - that's 2 years after Spiller was drafted. And even this year, once both are back healthy Spiller isn't going to do anything but split carries.

 

Granted, the way it's played out with the injuries it's been a blessing to have two quality backs but as I said - you don't spend a top 10 pick as an insurance policy.

 

For all those people saying, "you draft the best player available" that player does no good if he can't get on the field because the guy in front of him is better. I'd rather have had a guy who wasn't quite as good as Spiller but was better than what the Bills already had at that position and he saw the field from day one and helped the Bills improve as a team.

 

He's not a backup and he's not an insurance policy. The 1-back offense is nearly dead - it's too much punishment to hang on one player. I'm not a fan of drafting RB's early, but if you are still sitting here today claiming Spiller was a bad #1 pick you are insane. McCargo was a bad pick. Maybin was a bad pick. Spiller?

[prissythecat]

You mean the Bulaga that was part of the O-Line that gave up 8 sacks on Rodgers against Seattle? Irvin alone had 2 sacks. I'd be lying if I said I knew how many of the sacks were on Bulaga, but I don't know that I'd call him a dominant tackle. Spiller is showing the game-breaking ability that we drafted him for.

 

Lol. Thats exactly my point. There was a touch of sarcasm in my original post about Bulaga ;-) You don't go reaching for a player just because you need someone at a position. He would have been a wasted pick at 9.

[Nanker]

Cordy Glenn is clearly a bust. He hasn't been to a single Pro Bowl yet. Nuff said.

[bowery4]

Actually a bust is one of the best parts of a woman......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

oh wait you said who.

Edited September 27, 2012 by bowery4

[John from Riverside]

I still think we should have gotten Bulaga instead like a number of posters here had wanted. He's a dominant tackle. Looked good againt Irvin last night.

 

In Bulaga's first year with the pack he was BENCHED......do you realize that?

 

Just like Bulaga.....Spiller needed time. I said when we drafted him that he wasn't a "right now" pick.....I think they knew that CJ needed to work on things like pass protection.....running between the tackles...etc etc

 

In the end......we have probably one of the best O lines in the league AND Spiller.....I would say it worked out.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I hated the pick. I wanted to see o line, d line or linebacker. There were no QBs in that draft left at 9 otherwise that would have been the way to go. So glad clausen was avoided, and Tebow.

 

That said, if feel he was a major factor in exactly 3-4 wins since he's been in buffalo. My benchmarch for a rb was Thurman who was a major factor in many wins.

 

This is what organizations need top picks to do.

 

 

Since the draft is over and done and the contract is done I am happy to have him. If I had to make that pick over again, knowing what i know about judt his contribution, I still would have gone a different way- mainly because of the little difference I see between elite RBs and average RBs, especially when you build up the lines.

[John from Riverside]

Spiller is a good back but you don't spend a top 10 pick to back up your starter in case he gets injured. That's all Spiller has done so far and we're 35 games into his career. Those top picks have to see the field and they have to see the field almost immediately (starting by year 2) given how much money they make.

 

Hell, with Spiller on the roster the Bills just redid Freddie's deal to give him more money - that's 2 years after Spiller was drafted. And even this year, once both are back healthy Spiller isn't going to do anything but split carries.

 

Granted, the way it's played out with the injuries it's been a blessing to have two quality backs but as I said - you don't spend a top 10 pick as an insurance policy.

 

For all those people saying, "you draft the best player available" that player does no good if he can't get on the field because the guy in front of him is better. I'd rather have had a guy who wasn't quite as good as Spiller but was better than what the Bills already had at that position and he saw the field from day one and helped the Bills improve as a team.

 

Aaron Rogers says hello

[markgbe]

who cares... i just like football.

[BuffBill]

Actually a bust is one of the best parts of a woman......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

oh wait you said who.

As it is in the Hall of Fame also.