Would You Trade Any 3 Bills Players for Andrew Luck?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

If i were to pool the bills wrt trade value in teers roughly corresponding to round draft picks, I see it this way:

 

1 Mario

2 Kyle/Darius

3 Stevie And Spiller/Gilmore (high potential)

4 Fitz and Levitre/wood/byrd (lowered near contract end)

5 Shep/Barnett

 

Another interesting question is what would the colts take for him in trade.... The 49ers starting defense?

 

They parted ways with Manning with this guy in their sights.

 

 

 

[K-9]

I hope this thread is still available when he goes 3-13 with like 25 ints.

 

Which he stands a very good chance of doing. The Colts are just not a very good team at the moment. But he's a long-term investment worth making as they build their team again. It's nice to know you have the most important position locked up in the meantime. Now, if along with those 25 INTs he isn't also showing why they made him the #1 pick, then maybe they worry a bit. If he has a comparable rookie year to his predecessor, I think the Colts will be pleased with his trajectory.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Orton's Arm]

If it were somehow possible, would you trade for Andrew Luck in exchange for any three of the Bills players of the Colts choosing (ie - Luck for Fitzpatrick+Johnson+Dareus)?

 

If you think 3 is the wrong number, do you think 1, 2, or 4+ would be the most you'd give up?

Let me ask a slightly different question: if you were 100% convinced Luck is a franchise QB, would it be worth it to trade the Bills' roster in its entirety for him?

 

The roster Nix inherited had very little talent. Of the players projected to be starters on opening day, very few were with the team prior to Nix. If Nix were to trade away the current roster in its entirety, it might take him about 3.5 years to rebuild it back to somewhere around its current level. If you trade the roster for Luck, you're about 3.5 years away from having a franchise QB + a very solid team with which to surround him. But if you try to attack the problem from the other direction, would you be able to find a franchise QB in the next 3.5 years?

 

There has been exactly one franchise QB in the Bills' history: Jim Kelly. (Anyone who thinks Jack Kemp falls into the franchise category needs to take a closer look at his stats.) It's been about 20 years since Kelly hung up his cleats. Less than one franchise QB enters the NFL each year; which means that any given team has about a 1/40 chance of adding a franchise guy in any particular year. The Bills are not "due" to replace Kelly right now, nor will they be until 2023. But there's always the chance of getting unlucky (so to speak) and having to wait until long after 2023 to obtain Kelly's replacement.

 

If you were to surround Luck with a team like the one Nix has assembled, the Bills would have a very good chance of winning the Super Bowl. So why not trade the roster for Luck (if that trade was available), and then use the next few years on re-assembling the kind of team Nix has currently put together? Even if it takes Nix five years to assemble a team like the one we have now, that still means the supporting cast will have been assembled long before the halfway point of Luck's career. From that point until the end of Luck's career, each season would represent a very real chance of achieving a Bills' Super Bowl win.

[Tcali]

If it were somehow possible, would you trade for Andrew Luck in exchange for any three of the Bills players of the Colts choosing (ie - Luck for Fitzpatrick+Johnson+Dareus)?

 

If you think 3 is the wrong number, do you think 1, 2, or 4+ would be the most you'd give up?

 

YES. but it would hurt. Badly. The Williams brothers,dareus,Byrd,Stevie would be the most painful to give up.

PS--They would be foolish to take FITZ.

PSS---If I were Indy I would take Mario,Dareus,Byrd.

[Boludo]

what teams would definitely not make the deal?

 

AFC

patriots

steelers

ravens

bengals

texans

chiefs

chargers

 

NFC

giants

eagles

cowboys

packers

bears

lions

saints

falcons

panthers

49ers

 

what do you think?

[eball]

Let me ask a slightly different question: if you were 100% convinced Luck is a franchise QB, would it be worth it to trade the Bills' roster in its entirety for him?

 

The roster Nix inherited had very little talent. Of the players projected to be starters on opening day, very few were with the team prior to Nix. If Nix were to trade away the current roster in its entirety, it might take him about 3.5 years to rebuild it back to somewhere around its current level. If you trade the roster for Luck, you're about 3.5 years away from having a franchise QB + a very solid team with which to surround him. But if you try to attack the problem from the other direction, would you be able to find a franchise QB in the next 3.5 years?

 

There has been exactly one franchise QB in the Bills' history: Jim Kelly. (Anyone who thinks Jack Kemp falls into the franchise category needs to take a closer look at his stats.) It's been about 20 years since Kelly hung up his cleats. Less than one franchise QB enters the NFL each year; which means that any given team has about a 1/40 chance of adding a franchise guy in any particular year. The Bills are not "due" to replace Kelly right now, nor will they be until 2023. But there's always the chance of getting unlucky (so to speak) and having to wait until long after 2023 to obtain Kelly's replacement.

 

If you were to surround Luck with a team like the one Nix has assembled, the Bills would have a very good chance of winning the Super Bowl. So why not trade the roster for Luck (if that trade was available), and then use the next few years on re-assembling the kind of team Nix has currently put together? Even if it takes Nix five years to assemble a team like the one we have now, that still means the supporting cast will have been assembled long before the halfway point of Luck's career. From that point until the end of Luck's career, each season would represent a very real chance of achieving a Bills' Super Bowl win.

 

It's an interesting proposition, but my answer would still be no. What's the average length of an NFL career? I know "stars" exceed that number, but you've left out one hugely important variable and that's injury. QBs get hurt with more frequency now than ever before. Yes, Luck showed durability during his three year college career, but it's an unknown.

 

In this day and age of "win now" I don't think you can toss away a roster built to succeed on the wing and a prayer of an as-yet unproven QB. I have confidence Buddy will find Fitz's replacement over the next 2-3 seasons, while this roster is kicking ass and taking names.

[CodeMonkey]

Let me ask a slightly different question: if you were 100% convinced Luck is a franchise QB, would it be worth it to trade the Bills' roster in its entirety for him?

Before this past FA and draft, absolutely without hesitation.

Nix had such a good offseason and the defense now looks sound so i would not take that trade now.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

My 2 cents???

 

I trade nothing. He is an unproven player AND we still need the evaluation process with Fitz and Young.

 

We may already have the quarterback we need.

Oh my... you greatly exaggerate the value of your opinion. Evaluate Fitzpatrick ??? . He is not accurate and has a low football I.Q. What else did you need to know ? Trade any three and make it four if Fitzpatrick is needed to close the deal. To capitalize on our talent we need a franchise QB, not a T.O. machine.

[Tcali]

what teams would definitely not make the deal?

 

AFC

patriots

steelers

ravens

bengals

texans

chiefs

chargers

 

NFC

giants

eagles

cowboys

packers

bears

lions

saints

falcons

panthers

49ers

 

what do you think?

 

I think every single one of those teams takes the deal w/poss exc of Panthers,Falcons(altho if i were them id take it) and Lions. With NE and NO its a matter of QB age--they exchange 15 yrs for 2-4 yrs tops.

[Boludo]

I think every single one of those teams takes the deal w/poss exc of Panthers,Falcons(altho if i were them id take it) and Lions. With NE and NO its a matter of QB age--they exchange 15 yrs for 2-4 yrs tops.

 

no way come on now

 

flacco+rice+suggs for luck? the ravens would not do that

schaub+foster+johnson

romo+bryant+austin

etc

[Lurker]

Yes, any three of their choosing.

Any three...

[Tcali]

Yes. Let's give away proven talent for a guy who hasn't even taken a regular season snap yet.

 

Awesome.

 

Luck has proven a lot.Nothing is sure in this life. But Luck looks as good as Peyton,more athletic than Brady,way ahead Brees at the same stage.

I would give away more than our top 3 for him.

 

no way come on now

 

flacco+rice+suggs for luck? the ravens would not do that

schaub+foster+johnson

romo+bryant+austin

etc

ravens would do it in a heartbeat.so would the cowboys and the oilers.

Edited August 20, 2012 by Tcali

[San Jose Bills Fan]

no way come on now

 

flacco+rice+suggs for luck? the ravens would not do that

schaub+foster+johnson

romo+bryant+austin

etc

 

See, I disagree with you. You might be surprised at what some of these teams might do.

 

In Baltimore, Suggs is old and will miss the season with an achilles. Rice is a diminutive running back who has high mileage. Flacco is a sub-elite quarterback.

 

In Houston, Schaub has not been offered a contract extension even though several of his teammates have been extended. The speculation is that the Texans are taking a wait-see attitude towards Schaub and don't view him as elite. Arian Foster is a great running back granted. Andre Johnson has been injury-prone in his last two seasons and might be on a steep downslope… he hasn't been the same player he was for at least two seasons.

 

In Dallas, Romo is sub-elite by most opinion, Dez Bryant has done zero in his career and Miles Austin is again hampered with hamstring problems which washed out 2011 for him. Austin is not practicing and not expected to play this preseason.

 

I think there's a good chance that all 3 teams would make this trade for Andrew Luck.

[deep2evans]

I hope this thread is still available when he goes 3-13 with like 25 ints.

 

i hope this thread is still available in 15 years when Dareus has a bunch of pro-bowls, while Luck has a few MVPs and a couple rings.

 

we're not this delusional and stupid of a fan base are we?

 

Dareus, Freddy, Stevie/Mario/Gilmore/etc.

 

Where do I sign?

[K-9]

i hope this thread is still available in 15 years when Dareus has a bunch of pro-bowls, while Luck has a few MVPs and a couple rings.

 

we're not this delusional and stupid of a fan base are we?

 

Dareus, Freddy, Stevie/Mario/Gilmore/etc.

 

Where do I sign?

 

I'd like to think not. But I'm confident Chix would make that deal in a heartbeat if they could. Short term pain for long time gain.

 

Luck is even more impressive with other professionals around him than he was in college. He's got complete command of the game out there. I was very impressed by how he came back after throwing the pick 6. That's the mark of a great one and he didn't flinch.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[NoSaint]

 

 

I'd like to think not. But I'm confident Chix would make that deal in a heartbeat if they could. Short term pain for long time gain.

 

Luck is even more impressive with other professionals around him than he was in college. He's got complete command of the game out there. I was very impressed by how he came back after throwing the pick 6. That's the mark of a great one and he didn't flinch.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Honestly, from day one luck might be on par with fitz at his best. If that's the case you can trade Mario and fitz and the talent level isn't much different than last year. Add one other player and it's easy. Heck, the fitz move clears a ton of cap going forward. We could target two premiere players - one with Mario's salary (top FA pass rusher next year) and one or more with fitz + the other players salary. The deals a gimme from our end.

[CodeMonkey]

I was impressed watching him last night, particularly against the Steelers who brought their A defensive game for sure.. Even after his bad pic-6 he didn't try and blame anyone else. I could read his lips on the sideline after while talking to the coach "I !@#$ed up".

 

It would appear that Indy's suck for Luck strategy just might pay big dividends. I didn't realize that with their second pick they took one of Lucks college receivers.

 

Too bad the Bills play them in Indy in late November. I suspect Luck would have a much harder time playing at the Ralph that time of year.

Edited August 20, 2012 by CodeMonkey

[Mr. WEO]

I was impressed watching him last night, particularly against the Steelers who brought their A defensive game for sure.. Even after his bad pic-6 he didn't try and blame anyone else. I could read his lips on the sideline after while talking to the coach "I !@#$ed up".

 

It would appear that Indy's suck for Luck strategy just might pay big dividends. I didn't realize that with their second pick they took one of Lucks college receivers.

 

Too bad the Bills play them in Indy in late November. I suspect Luck would have a much harder time playing at the Ralph that time of year.

 

The Bills "luck" in November in Buffalo is not good.

[KD in CA]

I hope this thread is still available when he goes 3-13 with like 25 ints.

 

You mean just like Manning when he was a rookie?

[BuffaloBaumer]

I found it actually difficult to watch Luck last night knowing how good this kid really is. The more and more I see some of the better QBs operate, the more I know the Bills are going nowhere with Fitz. My hope this year is to have meaningful games in December and anything beyond that will be some real good gravy....