Would You Trade Any 3 Bills Players for Andrew Luck?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

If i were to pool the bills wrt trade value in teers roughly corresponding to round draft picks, I see it this way:

 

1 Mario

2 Kyle/Darius

3 Stevie And Spiller/Gilmore (high potential)

4 Fitz and Levitre/wood/byrd (lowered near contract end)

5 Shep/Barnett

 

Another interesting question is what would the colts take for him in trade.... The 49ers starting defense?

 

They parted ways with Manning with this guy in their sights.

 

 

 

[K-9]

I hope this thread is still available when he goes 3-13 with like 25 ints.

 

Which he stands a very good chance of doing. The Colts are just not a very good team at the moment. But he's a long-term investment worth making as they build their team again. It's nice to know you have the most important position locked up in the meantime. Now, if along with those 25 INTs he isn't also showing why they made him the #1 pick, then maybe they worry a bit. If he has a comparable rookie year to his predecessor, I think the Colts will be pleased with his trajectory.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Orton's Arm]

If it were somehow possible, would you trade for Andrew Luck in exchange for any three of the Bills players of the Colts choosing (ie - Luck for Fitzpatrick+Johnson+Dareus)?

 

If you think 3 is the wrong number, do you think 1, 2, or 4+ would be the most you'd give up?

Let me ask a slightly different question: if you were 100% convinced Luck is a franchise QB, would it be worth it to trade the Bills' roster in its entirety for him?

 

The roster Nix inherited had very little talent. Of the players projected to be starters on opening day, very few were with the team prior to Nix. If Nix were to trade away the current roster in its entirety, it might take him about 3.5 years to rebuild it back to somewhere around its current level. If you trade the roster for Luck, you're about 3.5 years away from having a franchise QB + a very solid team with which to surround him. But if you try to attack the problem from the other direction, would you be able to find a franchise QB in the next 3.5 years?

 

There has been exactly one franchise QB in the Bills' history: Jim Kelly. (Anyone who thinks Jack Kemp falls into the franchise category needs to take a closer look at his stats.) It's been about 20 years since Kelly hung up his cleats. Less than one franchise QB enters the NFL each year; which means that any given team has about a 1/40 chance of adding a franchise guy in any particular year. The Bills are not "due" to replace Kelly right now, nor will they be until 2023. But there's always the chance of getting unlucky (so to speak) and having to wait until long after 2023 to obtain Kelly's replacement.

 

If you were to surround Luck with a team like the one Nix has assembled, the Bills would have a very good chance of winning the Super Bowl. So why not trade the roster for Luck (if that trade was available), and then use the next few years on re-assembling the kind of team Nix has currently put together? Even if it takes Nix five years to assemble a team like the one we have now, that still means the supporting cast will have been assembled long before the halfway point of Luck's career. From that point until the end of Luck's career, each season would represent a very real chance of achieving a Bills' Super Bowl win.

[Tcali]

If it were somehow possible, would you trade for Andrew Luck in exchange for any three of the Bills players of the Colts choosing (ie - Luck for Fitzpatrick+Johnson+Dareus)?

 

If you think 3 is the wrong number, do you think 1, 2, or 4+ would be the most you'd give up?

 

YES. but it would hurt. Badly. The Williams brothers,dareus,Byrd,Stevie would be the most painful to give up.

PS--They would be foolish to take FITZ.

PSS---If I were Indy I would take Mario,Dareus,Byrd.

[Boludo]

what teams would definitely not make the deal?

 

AFC

patriots

steelers

ravens

bengals

texans

chiefs

chargers

 

NFC

giants

eagles

cowboys

packers

bears

lions

saints

falcons

panthers

49ers

 

what do you think?

[eball]

Let me ask a slightly different question: if you were 100% convinced Luck is a franchise QB, would it be worth it to trade the Bills' roster in its entirety for him?

 

The roster Nix inherited had very little talent. Of the players projected to be starters on opening day, very few were with the team prior to Nix. If Nix were to trade away the current roster in its entirety, it might take him about 3.5 years to rebuild it back to somewhere around its current level. If you trade the roster for Luck, you're about 3.5 years away from having a franchise QB + a very solid team with which to surround him. But if you try to attack the problem from the other direction, would you be able to find a franchise QB in the next 3.5 years?

 

There has been exactly one franchise QB in the Bills' history: Jim Kelly. (Anyone who thinks Jack Kemp falls into the franchise category needs to take a closer look at his stats.) It's been about 20 years since Kelly hung up his cleats. Less than one franchise QB enters the NFL each year; which means that any given team has about a 1/40 chance of adding a franchise guy in any particular year. The Bills are not "due" to replace Kelly right now, nor will they be until 2023. But there's always the chance of getting unlucky (so to speak) and having to wait until long after 2023 to obtain Kelly's replacement.

 

If you were to surround Luck with a team like the one Nix has assembled, the Bills would have a very good chance of winning the Super Bowl. So why not trade the roster for Luck (if that trade was available), and then use the next few years on re-assembling the kind of team Nix has currently put together? Even if it takes Nix five years to assemble a team like the one we have now, that still means the supporting cast will have been assembled long before the halfway point of Luck's career. From that point until the end of Luck's career, each season would represent a very real chance of achieving a Bills' Super Bowl win.

 

It's an interesting proposition, but my answer would still be no. What's the average length of an NFL career? I know "stars" exceed that number, but you've left out one hugely important variable and that's injury. QBs get hurt with more frequency now than ever before. Yes, Luck showed durability during his three year college career, but it's an unknown.

 

In this day and age of "win now" I don't think you can toss away a roster built to succeed on the wing and a prayer of an as-yet unproven QB. I have confidence Buddy will find Fitz's replacement over the next 2-3 seasons, while this roster is kicking ass and taking names.

[CodeMonkey]

Let me ask a slightly different question: if you were 100% convinced Luck is a franchise QB, would it be worth it to trade the Bills' roster in its entirety for him?

Before this past FA and draft, absolutely without hesitation.

Nix had such a good offseason and the defense now looks sound so i would not take that trade now.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

My 2 cents???

 

I trade nothing. He is an unproven player AND we still need the evaluation process with Fitz and Young.

 

We may already have the quarterback we need.

Oh my... you greatly exaggerate the value of your opinion. Evaluate Fitzpatrick ??? . He is not accurate and has a low football I.Q. What else did you need to know ? Trade any three and make it four if Fitzpatrick is needed to close the deal. To capitalize on our talent we need a franchise QB, not a T.O. machine.

[Tcali]

what teams would definitely not make the deal?

 

AFC

patriots

steelers

ravens

bengals

texans

chiefs

chargers

 

NFC

giants

eagles

cowboys

packers

bears

lions

saints

falcons

panthers

49ers

 

what do you think?

 

I think every single one of those teams takes the deal w/poss exc of Panthers,Falcons(altho if i were them id take it) and Lions. With NE and NO its a matter of QB age--they exchange 15 yrs for 2-4 yrs tops.

[Boludo]

I think every single one of those teams takes the deal w/poss exc of Panthers,Falcons(altho if i were them id take it) and Lions. With NE and NO its a matter of QB age--they exchange 15 yrs for 2-4 yrs tops.

 

no way come on now

 

flacco+rice+suggs for luck? the ravens would not do that

schaub+foster+johnson

romo+bryant+austin

etc

[Lurker]

Yes, any three of their choosing.

Any three...

[Tcali]

Yes. Let's give away proven talent for a guy who hasn't even taken a regular season snap yet.

 

Awesome.

 

Luck has proven a lot.Nothing is sure in this life. But Luck looks as good as Peyton,more athletic than Brady,way ahead Brees at the same stage.

I would give away more than our top 3 for him.

 

no way come on now

 

flacco+rice+suggs for luck? the ravens would not do that

schaub+foster+johnson

romo+bryant+austin

etc

ravens would do it in a heartbeat.so would the cowboys and the oilers.

Edited August 20, 2012 by Tcali

[San Jose Bills Fan]

no way come on now

 

flacco+rice+suggs for luck? the ravens would not do that

schaub+foster+johnson

romo+bryant+austin

etc

 

See, I disagree with you. You might be surprised at what some of these teams might do.

 

In Baltimore, Suggs is old and will miss the season with an achilles. Rice is a diminutive running back who has high mileage. Flacco is a sub-elite quarterback.

 

In Houston, Schaub has not been offered a contract extension even though several of his teammates have been extended. The speculation is that the Texans are taking a wait-see attitude towards Schaub and don't view him as elite. Arian Foster is a great running back granted. Andre Johnson has been injury-prone in his last two seasons and might be on a steep downslope… he hasn't been the same player he was for at least two seasons.

 

In Dallas, Romo is sub-elite by most opinion, Dez Bryant has done zero in his career and Miles Austin is again hampered with hamstring problems which washed out 2011 for him. Austin is not practicing and not expected to play this preseason.

 

I think there's a good chance that all 3 teams would make this trade for Andrew Luck.

[deep2evans]

I hope this thread is still available when he goes 3-13 with like 25 ints.

 

i hope this thread is still available in 15 years when Dareus has a bunch of pro-bowls, while Luck has a few MVPs and a couple rings.

 

we're not this delusional and stupid of a fan base are we?

 

Dareus, Freddy, Stevie/Mario/Gilmore/etc.

 

Where do I sign?

[K-9]

i hope this thread is still available in 15 years when Dareus has a bunch of pro-bowls, while Luck has a few MVPs and a couple rings.

 

we're not this delusional and stupid of a fan base are we?

 

Dareus, Freddy, Stevie/Mario/Gilmore/etc.

 

Where do I sign?

 

I'd like to think not. But I'm confident Chix would make that deal in a heartbeat if they could. Short term pain for long time gain.

 

Luck is even more impressive with other professionals around him than he was in college. He's got complete command of the game out there. I was very impressed by how he came back after throwing the pick 6. That's the mark of a great one and he didn't flinch.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[NoSaint]

 

 

I'd like to think not. But I'm confident Chix would make that deal in a heartbeat if they could. Short term pain for long time gain.

 

Luck is even more impressive with other professionals around him than he was in college. He's got complete command of the game out there. I was very impressed by how he came back after throwing the pick 6. That's the mark of a great one and he didn't flinch.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Honestly, from day one luck might be on par with fitz at his best. If that's the case you can trade Mario and fitz and the talent level isn't much different than last year. Add one other player and it's easy. Heck, the fitz move clears a ton of cap going forward. We could target two premiere players - one with Mario's salary (top FA pass rusher next year) and one or more with fitz + the other players salary. The deals a gimme from our end.

[CodeMonkey]

I was impressed watching him last night, particularly against the Steelers who brought their A defensive game for sure.. Even after his bad pic-6 he didn't try and blame anyone else. I could read his lips on the sideline after while talking to the coach "I !@#$ed up".

 

It would appear that Indy's suck for Luck strategy just might pay big dividends. I didn't realize that with their second pick they took one of Lucks college receivers.

 

Too bad the Bills play them in Indy in late November. I suspect Luck would have a much harder time playing at the Ralph that time of year.

Edited August 20, 2012 by CodeMonkey

[Mr. WEO]

I was impressed watching him last night, particularly against the Steelers who brought their A defensive game for sure.. Even after his bad pic-6 he didn't try and blame anyone else. I could read his lips on the sideline after while talking to the coach "I !@#$ed up".

 

It would appear that Indy's suck for Luck strategy just might pay big dividends. I didn't realize that with their second pick they took one of Lucks college receivers.

 

Too bad the Bills play them in Indy in late November. I suspect Luck would have a much harder time playing at the Ralph that time of year.

 

The Bills "luck" in November in Buffalo is not good.

[KD in CA]

I hope this thread is still available when he goes 3-13 with like 25 ints.

 

You mean just like Manning when he was a rookie?

[BuffaloBaumer]

I found it actually difficult to watch Luck last night knowing how good this kid really is. The more and more I see some of the better QBs operate, the more I know the Bills are going nowhere with Fitz. My hope this year is to have meaningful games in December and anything beyond that will be some real good gravy....

[Billsrhody]

See, I disagree with you. You might be surprised at what some of these teams might do.

 

In Baltimore, Suggs is old and will miss the season with an achilles. Rice is a diminutive running back who has high mileage. Flacco is a sub-elite quarterback.

 

In Houston, Schaub has not been offered a contract extension even though several of his teammates have been extended. The speculation is that the Texans are taking a wait-see attitude towards Schaub and don't view him as elite. Arian Foster is a great running back granted. Andre Johnson has been injury-prone in his last two seasons and might be on a steep downslope… he hasn't been the same player he was for at least two seasons.

 

In Dallas, Romo is sub-elite by most opinion, Dez Bryant has done zero in his career and Miles Austin is again hampered with hamstring problems which washed out 2011 for him. Austin is not practicing and not expected to play this preseason.

 

I think there's a good chance that all 3 teams would make this trade for Andrew Luck.

 

One team that would most certainly not is the Patriots. They would be giving up Brady, Gronkowski and (Wilfork, Mayo, Welker). They would be downgrading at QB and giving up two elite players.

[Brand J]

What will be the reaction around here if Fitz struggles mightily, or goes 7-10 for 28 yds again? (numbers before the MIN Jones TD) If he fails to generate any sort of passing game against the Steelers?

[KD in CA]

I found it actually difficult to watch Luck last night knowing how good this kid really is. The more and more I see some of the better QBs operate, the more I know the Bills are going nowhere with Fitz. My hope this year is to have meaningful games in December and anything beyond that will be some real good gravy....

 

I agree. Fitz is a caretaker, nothing more. If the Bills had had a chance at a top flight QB over the past few years they would have taken one but I think they were right to not trade the farm like the Redskins when they still had so many other holes to fill. It seems like they have done a good job filling many of them so hopefully they will have a real chance at a solid QB in the next year or two.

[Orton's Arm]

It's an interesting proposition, but my answer would still be no. What's the average length of an NFL career? I know "stars" exceed that number, but you've left out one hugely important variable and that's injury. QBs get hurt with more frequency now than ever before. Yes, Luck showed durability during his three year college career, but it's an unknown.

 

In this day and age of "win now" I don't think you can toss away a roster built to succeed on the wing and a prayer of an as-yet unproven QB. I have confidence Buddy will find Fitz's replacement over the next 2-3 seasons, while this roster is kicking ass and taking names.

 

If you were to trade the entire roster for Luck, while keeping Nix as the GM, the outcome I'd envision would be as follows:

 

Year 1: The roster would consist of players other teams didn't want, plus Andrew Luck. The Bills would be a hot destination for UDFAs, because the UDFAs would know there aren't going to be any established players in front of them. This team would go 0-16. Andrew Luck will be the third string QB to keep him from getting killed behind the horrible OL.

 

Year 2: With the first overall pick of the draft, Nix will select an elite player. He will continue to find good, solid players throughout the draft. He will add a few judicious free agent signings, and a few UDFAs will have emerged from the train wreck of year 1. Luck will start, but will not have a great year due to growing pains and an OL which is still below average. The Bills go 4-12.

 

Year 3: The Bills pick in the top 5 of the draft; giving Nix the chance to take another elite player. Nix is able to fill a large number of holes in this draft. The offensive line is better, the offensive skill players are better, the team as a whole is better. The Bills go 9-7, and miss the playoffs.

 

Year 4: Nix uses the draft to fill most of the remaining holes at starter positions, while also adding significantly to the team's depth. The Bills now have a core of elite players who are surrounded with good, solid teammates. This team goes 12-4, makes it to the conference championship, and is narrowly defeated. Fans point to a few mistakes born of inexperience which made the difference in the game.

 

Year 5: With an extra year of experience for Luck and other core players, and with a talent infusion of yet another draft, the Bills win the Super Bowl. The Bills have become the most talented and complete team in the league. The Bills will continue to be a serious threat to win more Super Bowls for the next ten years.

[BRAWNDO]

YES

[Tcali]

One team that would most certainly not is the Patriots. They would be giving up Brady, Gronkowski and (Wilfork, Mayo, Welker). They would be downgrading at QB and giving up two elite players.

The Pats most certainly would. Belicek would dump the 35 yr old Brady in a New York second.Would buy him another 10-15 yrs of SB contention.

[Boludo]

if we traded them our whole roster, they would have to cut tons of and we could just sign them all

If you were to trade the entire roster for Luck, while keeping Nix as the GM, the outcome I'd envision would be as follows:

 

Year 1: The roster would consist of players other teams didn't want, plus Andrew Luck. The Bills would be a hot destination for UDFAs, because the UDFAs would know there aren't going to be any established players in front of them. This team would go 0-16. Andrew Luck will be the third string QB to keep him from getting killed behind the horrible OL.

 

Year 2: With the first overall pick of the draft, Nix will select an elite player. He will continue to find good, solid players throughout the draft. He will add a few judicious free agent signings, and a few UDFAs will have emerged from the train wreck of year 1. Luck will start, but will not have a great year due to growing pains and an OL which is still below average. The Bills go 4-12.

 

Year 3: The Bills pick in the top 5 of the draft; giving Nix the chance to take another elite player. Nix is able to fill a large number of holes in this draft. The offensive line is better, the offensive skill players are better, the team as a whole is better. The Bills go 9-7, and miss the playoffs.

 

Year 4: Nix uses the draft to fill most of the remaining holes at starter positions, while also adding significantly to the team's depth. The Bills now have a core of elite players who are surrounded with good, solid teammates. This team goes 12-4, makes it to the conference championship, and is narrowly defeated. Fans point to a few mistakes born of inexperience which made the difference in the game.

 

Year 5: With an extra year of experience for Luck and other core players, and with a talent infusion of yet another draft, the Bills win the Super Bowl. The Bills have become the most talented and complete team in the league. The Bills will continue to be a serious threat to win more Super Bowls for the next ten years.

 

also once the colts have all our players they will have way too many on their roster and we can sign back everyone they cut so it's not like we have to sign guys off the street

 

also we would have tons to spend on free agency in the following years

[Orton's Arm]

if we traded them our whole roster, they would have to cut tons of and we could just sign them all

 

also once the colts have all our players they will have way too many on their roster and we can sign back everyone they cut so it's not like we have to sign guys off the street

 

also we would have tons to spend on free agency in the following years

Good points!

[Billsrhody]

The Pats most certainly would. Belicek would dump the 35 yr old Brady in a New York second.Would buy him another 10-15 yrs of SB contention.

 

Brady is going to play until he is 40.. why would you give up 5 years of certain superbowl contention for potential superbowl contention?

[Shoutbox]

Andrew Luck for Jake Vermiglio, Derek Session, and Nick Sukay.

[CodeMonkey]

Brady is going to play until he is 40.. why would you give up 5 years of certain superbowl contention for potential superbowl contention?

Generally no. But in this case, for Brady 2.0, yes.

[Tcali]

Brady is going to play until he is 40.. why would you give up 5 years of certain superbowl contention for potential superbowl contention?

 

He may think hes gonna play til 40. A lot of people delude themselves that they can still play at that age. The only one I ever saw with the physical skills still there at that age was Favre. Delusion.---AND----even if somehow the odds are defied---Belicek gets a QB who will soon be better than Brady anyway--very soon. And with his coaching /drafting brilliance would overcome the loss of Gronk.

[Orton's Arm]

He may think hes gonna play til 40. A lot of people delude themselves that they can still play at that age. The only one I ever saw with the physical skills still there at that age was Favre. Delusion.---AND----even if somehow the odds are defied---Belicek gets a QB who will soon be better than Brady anyway--very soon. And with his coaching /drafting brilliance would overcome the loss of Gronk.

Agreed. Jim Kelly toward the end of his career wasn't the same player he'd been in his prime. You could say the same about Dan Marino. Brett Favre's quality of play had also declined, even if you want to argue the physical skills were still there.

 

Admittedly, Brady doesn't look like he's declined thus far. But when (not if) that decline happens, it could happen fast. You might get another five years out of Brady. But maybe Brady will begin his decline in year one of that span, or year 3, or some other year. There's no way of knowing. Once that decline begins, the rest of the Patriots team will have to hold itself to a higher standard if that team is to get a Super Bowl win--a higher enough standard to make up for Brady no longer being at his peak.

 

The Patriots seem to be long-term thinkers. Witness the fact they're always eager to trade away their picks in the current draft for picks in future drafts. Trading away Brady for Luck would be a trade like that writ large. They'd have to love the chance to get 12 years younger at the QB position, while continuing to have a franchise QB. Even if you have to trade away two additional players for that, I think they'd conclude it would still be well worth it.