Romney opens 5 point lead over Obama

[dayman]

No different than any of your other smug self righteous posts where you act like you are so much better than anyone else here

 

I have to say, through a slew of conversations Tom has done nothing short of prove..beyound a doubt...that he is in fact king of the asylum. Provided you understand what we're working towards here...you come to the conclusion he has won.

[/dev/null]

I have to say, through a slew of conversations Tom has done nothing short of prove..beyound a doubt...that he is in fact king of the asylum. Provided you understand what we're working towards here...you come to the conclusion he has won.

Just like Charlie Sheen

Except Tom doesn't have the ninja tigers blood

[OCinBuffalo]

It's a message board. And one where the regulars are a mess. Including you. And me. Of course your disorder won't let you see the reality or humor int that so you got defensive. Sorry puppy dog. Sometimes I forget how easy it is to hurt you.

Wait...so you agree that we are talking 2 years ago? And, I've been to Chippewa...and elsewhere...way...way..the F elsewhere tonight....so let's not take this too seriously...But...i'm the one being defensive? I'm the one who made the joke, right...?

 

Look....in these absurd situations....I let the party girl decide.....

 

She says we are both douches....and that we need to focus on the Bills game, and making sure we don't F up the tailgate....and some other nonsense I don't want to even bother with because it's pure, unadulterated nonsense.

 

Yes I asked her what unadulterated means...and she thinks its porn....so there you go.

[B-Man]

DRAMATICALLY DECLINING DEMOCRATIC VOTER REGISTRATION: Of course you won’t find this widely reported in the mainstream media. Fox News reports that a recent study by a left-leaning think tank, Third Way, shows a precipitous decline in voters registering as Democrat in key swing states.

 

In Ohio, for example, there are 490,000 fewer registered voters than in 2008, 44 percent of whom reside in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1.

 

Ohio is not alone. . . . Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it’s down down 19.7 percent.

 

Another reason why many recent polls–which oversample Democrats and “weight” results based on 2008 presidential election turnout rates–may indeed be highly misleading.

 

http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/152083/

[Doc]

DRAMATICALLY DECLINING DEMOCRATIC VOTER REGISTRATION: Of course you won’t find this widely reported in the mainstream media. Fox News reports that a recent study by a left-leaning think tank, Third Way, shows a precipitous decline in voters registering as Democrat in key swing states.

 

In Ohio, for example, there are 490,000 fewer registered voters than in 2008, 44 percent of whom reside in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1.

 

Ohio is not alone. . . . Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it’s down down 19.7 percent.

 

Another reason why many recent polls–which oversample Democrats and “weight” results based on 2008 presidential election turnout rates–may indeed be highly misleading.

 

http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/152083/

Good. And I hope Fox shuts up about it.

[In-A-Gadda-Levitre]

DRAMATICALLY DECLINING DEMOCRATIC VOTER REGISTRATION: Of course you won’t find this widely reported in the mainstream media. Fox News reports that a recent study by a left-leaning think tank, Third Way, shows a precipitous decline in voters registering as Democrat in key swing states.

 

In Ohio, for example, there are 490,000 fewer registered voters than in 2008, 44 percent of whom reside in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1.

 

Ohio is not alone. . . . Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it’s down down 19.7 percent.

 

Another reason why many recent polls–which oversample Democrats and “weight” results based on 2008 presidential election turnout rates–may indeed be highly misleading.

 

http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/152083/

 

The decline in OH might well be true. What's interesting is that no source is provided for the OH data. The Third Way report is online, and there's clear dem decline in states like FL, but I wonder what study or data they derived OH from...

[DC Tom]

DRAMATICALLY DECLINING DEMOCRATIC VOTER REGISTRATION: Of course you won’t find this widely reported in the mainstream media. Fox News reports that a recent study by a left-leaning think tank, Third Way, shows a precipitous decline in voters registering as Democrat in key swing states.

 

I can't wait for the inevitable blaming of voter ID laws...

[/dev/null]

I can't wait for the inevitable blaming of voter ID laws...

Which are inevitably a result of the Bush Administration

[Nanker]

Well it's was obvious from the start when the Republican party nominated a Mormon as their Presidential candidate that they wanted to suppress the black vote. The disenchanted blacks will stay at home rather than vote for him.

[Max Fischer]

DRAMATICALLY DECLINING DEMOCRATIC VOTER REGISTRATION: Of course you won’t find this widely reported in the mainstream media. Fox News reports that a recent study by a left-leaning think tank, Third Way, shows a precipitous decline in voters registering as Democrat in key swing states.

 

In Ohio, for example, there are 490,000 fewer registered voters than in 2008, 44 percent of whom reside in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1.

 

Ohio is not alone. . . . Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it’s down down 19.7 percent.

 

Another reason why many recent polls–which oversample Democrats and “weight” results based on 2008 presidential election turnout rates–may indeed be highly misleading.

 

http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/152083/

 

How do you guys get through life thinking everything is a conspiracy?

 

Wow, shocking that certain states have declining percentage of registrations with some in swing states. Effects Ds and Rs. Dems in rust belt though trend of Latino voters could eventually be a huge problem for GOP. None of this is a secret.

[B-Man]

How do you guys get through life thinking everything is a conspiracy?

 

Wow, shocking that certain states have declining percentage of registrations with some in swing states. Effects Ds and Rs. Dems in rust belt though trend of Latino voters could eventually be a huge problem for GOP. None of this is a secret.

 

Not a conspiracy, little one, just an observation. No secrets, just some statistics to ponder

 

How do you get through life, thinking the worst about everyone...

 

 

sad for you.

[fjl2nd]

Some good reading for you guys complaining about polls

 

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/29/poll-averages-have-no-history-of-consistent-partisan-bias/#more-35258

 

The polls have no such history of partisan bias, at least not on a consistent basis. There have been years, like 1980 and 1994, when the polls did underestimate the standing of Republicans. But there have been others, like 2000 and 2006, when they underestimated the standing of Democrats.

 

Over the long term, however, the polls have been about as likely to miss in either direction. Since 1980, they have overestimated the Democratic candidate’s margin by an average of 0.9 percentage points, and by a median of 0.3 percentage points. These errors are so modest that they cannot really be distinguished from statistical noise.

 

Over all, the state polls have had little bias. Since 1972, they have overestimated the standing of the Democratic candidate by an average of half of a percentage point.

[/dev/null]

Some good reading for you guys complaining about polls

 

 

 

The polls have no such history of partisan bias, at least not on a consistent basis. There have been years, like 1980 and 1994, when the polls did underestimate the standing of Republicans. But there have been others, like 2000 and 2006, when they underestimated the standing of Democrats.

 

 

http://fivethirtyeig...ias/#more-35258

 

3 of the 4 elections you cite were "Wave" elections where the country was pissed off and the polls failed to reflect that. Similar dynamic this election

 

The 4th election that you cited, 2000, is textbook example as to why the only polls that really matter are in a handful of states

[fjl2nd]

3 of the 4 elections you cite were "Wave" elections where the country was pissed off and the polls failed to reflect that. Similar dynamic this election

 

The 4th election that you cited, 2000, is textbook example as to why the only polls that really matter are in a handful of states

 

I don't think this is a wave election at all. 2010 was - you could feel it. The feelings aren't as even close this year.

[/dev/null]

I don't think this is a wave election at all. 2010 was - you could feel it. The feelings aren't as even close this year.

 

06 was a wave election. That's when the Democrats retook the House and cursed the country with 4 years of Speaker Pelosi

[fjl2nd]

To dispel further myths you guys are pushing, I present to you some tweets from Nate Silver on Sunday about voter registration:

 

Nate SilverVerified ‏@fivethirtyeight

 

15 states track monthly data on voter registration by party. In those states since 7/1, 34% of new voters are Dems, 20% GOP, 46% other.

 

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

Since 2008, the Dem share of voter registrations is down slightly. But all gains among independents/others, not GOP.

 

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

And in last couple of months, Dem registrations are mediocre, but GOP numbers worse. Both parties losing ground to indies.

 

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

Among the swing states on that list (NV+CO+FL+IA+PA+NC): Dems +238,652 voter regs since 7/1; GOP +154,724; indies +281,825.

[Oxrock]

To dispel further myths you guys are pushing, I present to you some tweets from Nate Silver on Sunday about voter registration:

So, then... the question becomes why isn't Obama leading by crushing numbers? Look at the last one alone: 2.38 to 1.54. Nearly 37% more Democrats Party affiliation than Republican Party affiliation.

 

Oh, wait. Did you look at that? 2.82 Ind/2.39 Dems/1.55 Rep. That's registration. So, Indies outnumber both the Dems and Reps. Yet all the polls have Dems outnumber both Indies and Reps. And this is supposed to show us that the polls aren't skewed?

 

But, just in case you didn't know, A lot of us registered as democrats so we could vote in your primary in 2008. Maybe some didn't change back. I did, but my wife didn't.

Edited October 1, 2012 by Oxrock

[Max Fischer]

So, then... the question becomes why isn't Obama leading by crushing numbers? Look at the last one alone: 2.38 to 1.54. Nearly 37% more Democrats Party affiliation than Republican Party affiliation.

 

Oh, wait. Did you look at that? 2.82 Ind/2.39 Dems/1.55 Rep. That's registration. So, Indies outnumber both the Dems and Reps. Yet all the polls have Dems outnumber both Indies and Reps. And this is supposed to show us that the polls aren't skewed?

 

But, just in case you didn't know, A lot of us registered as democrats so we could vote in your primary in 2008. Maybe some didn't change back. I did, but my wife didn't.

 

You guys are nuts. If you don't believe the reported polls, then I guess the GOP pollsters are in on the conspiracy.

 

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81845.html?hp=t1

 

This is no different than 2004 when my Democratic friends insisited John Kerry would win. Polls suggested otherwise and like 2008, the polls were nearly dead-on. In other words, grow up.

[John Adams]

You guys are nuts. If you don't believe the reported polls, then I guess the GOP pollsters are in on the conspiracy.

 

http://www.politico....1845.html?hp=t1

 

This is no different than 2004 when my Democratic friends insisited John Kerry would win. Polls suggested otherwise and like 2008, the polls were nearly dead-on. In other words, grow up.

 

I've told this story before but someone I know was working the Kerry campaign and was driving home after a long day. Her sister called to console her and she said, "What are you talking about? NPR says Kerry is looking good." The sister told her that all the networks had called the race.

[B-Man]

CNN poll magically tightens as calendar turns...

 

Battle for presidency remains close in new CNN poll

 

Washington (CNN) – Two days before the first presidential debate, a new national survey indicates a very close contest between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the race for the White House.

And according to a CNN/ORC International poll, neither candidate appears to have an edge on the economy, which remains the top issue on the minds of Americans and which may dominate Wednesday night's debate on domestic issues in Denver.

 

 

.The partisan breakdown is 37 percent Democrat,

34 percent independent,

and 29 percent Republican.

 

.

Edited October 1, 2012 by B-Man