Romney opens 5 point lead over Obama

[ieatcrayonz]

That doesn't follow any type of logic. We knew that the Taliban harbored terrorists, so we struck. I think any sitting president would have committed to that war. Iraq is debatable, but not Afghanistan.

Pollyanna,

 

When you get back from picking flowers google a little thing called the "Los Gatos foreign policy".

[DC Tom]

Who is more foolish, the fool or the fool who follows him?

 

I'm guessing they both look at lybob and say "At least we're not him..."

[Adam]

Pollyanna,

 

When you get back from picking flowers google a little thing called the "Los Gatos foreign policy".

It took me to a few of your posts, one with a dead link and another with a link that took me to a site with a ton of other links. I am sure the site installed all kinds of nice stuff on my hard drive......

[Rob's House]

I'm eating at Chick-fil-a right now. There's just something about the way the chicken & bacon intermingle with the cheese and the tangy hate sauce. So good. I got my daughter a kids meal; I just hope she doesn't spill on her white robe.

[John Adams]

According to Fox, Obama is now up 9 points...up from 4. And people are now more likely to identify themselves as Dems than Repubs. Add that to the finding that among Independents, Obama is polling stronger by 11 points.

 

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-obama-lead-grows-as-romney-support-slips

 

 

 

[WorldTraveller]

No doubt, that in the most recent CNN and FOX polling, numbers are trending towards Obama. For some reason the daily tracking polls of GALLUP and Rasmussen are fairly consistent with where they have been. My guess is that the truth is somewhere in between. Having said that, recent polling in Virginia and Colorado seem to be moving back towards Romney a little bit. In any case, the dynamics will have to change, if he continues to play small ball with O, they will lose.

[Doc]

No doubt, that in the most recent CNN and FOX polling, numbers are trending towards Obama. For some reason the daily tracking polls of GALLUP and Rasmussen are fairly consistent with where they have been. My guess is that the truth is somewhere in between. Having said that, recent polling in Virginia and Colorado seem to be moving back towards Romney a little bit. In any case, the dynamics will have to change, if he continues to play small ball with O, they will lose.

It's the Olympics lull. Big ball will come soon enough.

[WorldTraveller]

If there is a silver lining, these polls are just RV polls rather than LV. Consistently polls have been showing that the Conservative base is considerably more jazzed to vote than the D's.

 

Here is another poll from yesterday that came to the same conclusion.

 

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/research/2012-voter-enthusiasm-favors-republicans

 

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Republican-leaning voting blocs are more enthusiastic to vote this November, which could be the deciding factor in a turnout election. As we head into the final campaign stretch, President Obama faces the unwelcoming reality that he must close the voter enthusiasm gap and improve his performance among key voting subgroups if he is to be successful in his bid for reelection.

 

When looking at those voters who say they are extremely enthusiastic to vote in the presidential election, Republicans hold a double-digit advantage over Democrats, 62 to 49 percent, and the subgroups most likely to support Governor Romney register higher enthusiasm than those backing President Obama, according to our most recent survey July 9-12.

 

Reliable Republican demographics, such as Protestants, Evangelicals, and white men, score above the median rate of those who are extremely enthusiastic to turnout and far out pace several traditional Democratic voting groups, including Hispanic voters, unmarried, and young voters (18-to-29-year-olds). African-American voters are the exception among Obama supporters and register enthusiasm on par with Republicans.

 

The higher enthusiasm among Republicans overall will help shrink the traditional Democratic identification advantage on Election Day, which stood at seven points during the 2008 wave election. As a result, national polling with a Democratic voter edge greater than the 2008 margin should be viewed with skepticism.

 

In addition to the enthusiasm gap, President Obama is underperforming among key members of his coalition. He holds 53 percent support on the ballot among voters with household income less than $50k, down seven points from 2008. President Obama swept young voters (18-to-29-year-olds) by 66 to 32 percent in 2008, but this margin has been nearly cut in half, 53 to 35 percent. Typically a swing voting bloc in presidential elections, Catholic voters are clearly up for grabs, 47 to 47 percent.

 

Among subgroups that President Obama is likely to lose, he’s doing so by a wider margin. The president trails among white men 61 to 30 percent, a 15 point swing compared to 2008 (57 to 41 percent). His support among white non-college educated voters is also down eight points.

 

It will be difficult for President Obama to close these gaps by winning the undecided voters outright. Nearly every poll puts the presidential contest in a statistical dead heat, with President Obama and Governor Romney battling to win a small percentage of undecided voters. Resurgent Republic’s most recent survey found only five percent of voters nationally are undecided on the presidential ballot, while that figure shrinks to three percent in the battleground states.

 

Conventional wisdom dictates that undecided voters do not split evenly, and the overwhelmingly negative political climate is a significant hurdle for President Obama in bucking this trend. Strong majorities of voters still believe the country is on the wrong track, and even more feel like the economy is stuck in a recession.

 

After four years of President Obama’s economic polices, undecided voters are receptive to the message that it’s time to try something else. So as of today, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where President Obama wins more of the undecided bloc than Governor Romney. It seems President Obama’s best outcome among these voters is to fight Governor Romney to a draw, or even hope they don’t vote, both of which heighten the importance of base turnout and the president’s enthusiasm deficit.

 

In addition, President Obama’s reelection campaign should not depend on Independent voters to make up the lost votes due to lack of enthusiasm and ballot underperformance. Swing voters voted for Republican candidates for Congress by an 18-point margin in 2010, delivering in the process an unequivocal rebuke of President Obama’s agenda. President Obama’s job approval, handling of the economy, personal approval and ballot support among swing voters are all stuck in the low 40’s. Having won a majority of Independents in 2008, President Obama now trails his previous performance by 12 points.

 

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[Doc]

And again, undecideds will mostly go against the incumbent. And again, Romney's Veep choice hasn't had a chance to play pitbull and go after Barry and Joe.

[ieatcrayonz]

And again, undecideds will mostly go against the incumbent. And again, Romney's Veep choice hasn't had a chance to play pitbull and go after Barry and Joe.

 

And again Mitt will probably pick some Los Gatos for VP. If he picks Pawlenty he is basically saying he DOES NOT WANT to be president. That guy is a WUSS.

[billsfan89]

From what polls I have been looking at Obama seems to have a lead of 5-9 points and at worst his lead is 3 points. I don't know of too many that show Romney with a lead. Its sad that the GOP couldn't have a better challenger than Romney, Romney is much like John Kerry a terrible pick from a mediocre field. Obama is going to likely be reelected, what I would really like to see is Gary Johnson get into the debates and get third parties a voice.

[WorldTraveller]

From what polls I have been looking at Obama seems to have a lead of 5-9 points and at worst his lead is 3 points. I don't know of too many that show Romney with a lead. Its sad that the GOP couldn't have a better challenger than Romney, Romney is much like John Kerry a terrible pick from a mediocre field. Obama is going to likely be reelected, what I would really like to see is Gary Johnson get into the debates and get third parties a voice.

 

Gallup and Rasmussen are the only ones with daily trackers who have much larger sampling sizes and they don't agree with your analysis.

Edited August 11, 2012 by WorldTraveller

[3rdnlng]

From what polls I have been looking at Obama seems to have a lead of 5-9 points and at worst his lead is 3 points. I don't know of too many that show Romney with a lead. Its sad that the GOP couldn't have a better challenger than Romney, Romney is much like John Kerry a terrible pick from a mediocre field. Obama is going to likely be reelected, what I would really like to see is Gary Johnson get into the debates and get third parties a voice.

 

 

The polls can't be believed. I'll tell you this, if the polls show Obama ahead by 3-4 percentage points a week before the election, get ready for Mitt, McConnell and Boehner to be giving you your morning news.

[OCinBuffalo]

How's your crusade to have a recount for the 2008 election going?

What? No seriously...what the F are you talking about?

 

Edit:

Even ...lybob knows better than to bring the incoherent to me. To which crusade do you refer? The only crusades I have ever been on:

1. Crushing the "we could have traded down because somebody on the internet, who has no sources whatsoever, said so" people.

2. Crushing the "I'm too dumb to realize that Dan Snyder is tampering with Aaron Schobel, and then he got busted for doing just that with Lance Briggs" people.

3. Crushing the "I am for gay marriage, and demand you recognize my moral superiority, because I am too dumb to recognize that this issue is a political one used to divide the country and try to get votes, and not a moral one....as has been consistently demonstrated ever since the Congressional beating the Democrats took in 2002 and 2004, and has been futher reinforced(as if we needed it) by Obama's recent "I need the gay/Hollywood money, so I will evolve" change of position on it. That anyone would continue to think of gay marriage as a moral/civil rights issue given the consistent bad behavior of the Democrats on it...just proves how much of an unmitigated moron they are.

 

Now, if you want to accuse me of those crusades...I won't deny any of it.

 

But this? Ridiculous.

Edited August 11, 2012 by OCinBuffalo

[Max Fischer]

No doubt, that in the most recent CNN and FOX polling, numbers are trending towards Obama. For some reason the daily tracking polls of GALLUP and Rasmussen are fairly consistent with where they have been. My guess is that the truth is somewhere in between. Having said that, recent polling in Virginia and Colorado seem to be moving back towards Romney a little bit. In any case, the dynamics will have to change, if he continues to play small ball with O, they will lose.

 

No one should use individual polls as each has characteristics that push results one way or the other. Gallup has a good rep among experts (R&D), while only GOP partisans use Rasmussen for anything other justifying their viewpoint on message boards.

 

It's best to aggregate all the polls and weigh them based on histrorical data. See Nate Silver's universally acclaimed 538.com. Only the partisan left and right want to dismiss/praise Silver's work to suit their narrow worldview.

 

 

[John Adams]

Id guess Ryan helps with Independents nationally, and kills Florida for Romney. Team Obama will run Ryan's positions on Social Security and Medicare nonstop in Florida.

[Max Fischer]

Id guess Ryan helps with Independents nationally, and kills Florida for Romney. Team Obama will run Ryan's positions on Social Security and Medicare nonstop in Florida.

 

Agreed. Florida could be toast, and perhaps NC? I'm very curious about the Romney strategy. Obviously, they now have WI as a must get and I assume the same goes for Iowa, but I wonder how else they think Ryan could get Romeny over the top. Guess: CO, NV, VA, NH as well. I suppose they assumed Portman would not get Ohio, which would have been a much easier way to 270.

[3rdnlng]

I guess we can now have a big boy discussion rather than debate how many 10ths of a point a certain VP selection will help Romney out in a specific state.

[B-Man]

Id guess Ryan helps with Independents nationally, and kills Florida for Romney. Team Obama will run Ryan's positions on Social Security and Medicare nonstop in Florida.

Agreed. Florida could be toast, and perhaps NC? I'm very curious about the Romney strategy. Obviously, they now have WI as a must get and I assume the same goes for Iowa, but I wonder how else they think Ryan could get Romeny over the top. Guess: CO, NV, VA, NH as well. I suppose they assumed Portman would not get Ohio, which would have been a much easier way to 270.

 

I wouldn't be so quick to follow the "Florida is toast" crowd.

 

I work with seniors every day, and they are well aware that Medicare and SS have to be reformed or they will go bust.

 

Those who will believe the "GOP is going to take away your medicare" scare ads would have voted dem anyway.

 

Those ads are run EVERY election , no matter who is the VP pick.

 

I have a little more faith in the electorate than that.

 

.

[Max Fischer]

 

 

 

I wouldn't be so quick to follow the "Florida is toast" crowd.

 

I work with seniors every day, and they are well aware that Medicare and SS have to be reformed or they will go bust.

 

Those who will believe the "GOP is going to take away your medicare" scare ads would have voted dem anyway.

 

Those ads are run EVERY election , no matter who is the VP pick.

 

I have a little more faith in the electorate than that.

 

.

 

Ah, the old "faith in the electorate" comment. Oh, please.

 

Anyway, Connie Mack called Ryan's budget "a joke" and Ryan's proposals are/were very unpopular in FL. Thats just reality. But, hey, there is time turn it around but I wouldnt be surprised if Obama's folks feel a little easier about FL.