Billsrhody Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Alright so I wanted to find out the prototype for the best pass rushers in the league at OLB and DE. At 3-4 OLB the best players seem on average 6-3, 260 and run somewhere around a 4.6 40. Whitney Mercilus (Illinois) seems to fit that mold almost exactly. He led the nation in sacks last year with 16 sacks and is projected as an early 2nd round draft pick. Courtney Upshaw doesn't really seem to fit the mold, although neither does James Harrison. 3-4 Defense Ht Wt 40 Ware: 6-4, 260, 4.56 Harrison: 6-0, 242, 4.85 Matthews: 6-3, 255, 4.62 Suggs: 6-3, 260, 4.65 Hali: 6-3, 275, 4.75 Draft fits? Mercilus: 6-4, 265, 4.65 (projected) Upshaw: 6-2, 265, 4.76 For a 4-3 DE, the best players seem to be on average around 6-6, 275 and run a 4.7 40. Its scary how closely Quinton Coples fits that mold, which makes me think that he's the real deal. Right now he's projected as a top 10 pick. Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) also fits the mold. He's projected as a mid to late first round pick, but his stock may be on the rise. 4-3 Defense Ht Wt 40 Peppers: 6-7, 287, 4.74 Allen: 6-6, 270, 4.72 Williams: 6-6, 283, 4.70 P-Paul: 6-5, 278, 4.71 Freeney: 6-1, 268, 4.53 Draft fits? Coples: 6-6, 272, 4.75 Ingram: 6-2, 276, 4.72 The bills are in dire need of a pass rusher and I would love to see Coples fall to them at 10. If he doesnt though, the bills do have some other pretty good options. I would rather see them take Mercilus (in the second round) over Upshaw (in the first) if they plan to stay in a 3-4. Ingram might be a stretch at 10, but if they can trade down a few spots I would love to see him on the team. I dont think any of these 4 guys are bad options and I think its likely we'll see one of them on the Bills in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Measurables are great and all but its hard to measure a guys drive. Thats why Harrison is so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDaDdy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Measurables are great and all but its hard to measure a guys drive. Thats why Harrison is so good 1st Coples DE/OLB 2nd Mercilus OLB That would be a pretty decent start in my opinion. Our defenses is our biggest problem. People need to stop whining about Fitz and focus on our real problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I'd be delighted with Melvin Ingram, Nick Perry, Quinton Coples, or Whitney Mercilus. Any of these guys would be an immediate starter for us. While Ingram and Coples have improved their draft standing during Senior Bowl week, I suspect that Nick Perry will be a household name after the combine. One of these guys has to be the pick at #10 IMO. 1st Coples DE/OLB 2nd Mercilus OLB That would be a pretty decent start in my opinion. Our defenses is our biggest problem. People need to stop whining about Fitz and focus on our real problems. That would be incredible, but I highly doubt Mercilus will make it to the 2nd round. I actually question whether or not he will make it to #10. Vinny Curry, DE/OLB from Marshall would be a great pick in round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Mercilus will not make it out of the top 15 after his combine, bet that. We need to take him with our 1st if we do not trade up for Blackmon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I'm too lazy and I'm finishing up work but could anyone post 1st round pass rushers drafted in the last 10 years? Fro some reason, I feel like there is a huge bust rate when picking these guys. Personally, I won't mind 3 or 4 picks on pass rushers in this draft. As the Giants proved, you can never have enough and you can find gems in later rounds (Jared Allen, Tuck, Wake). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrhody Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 I'm too lazy and I'm finishing up work but could anyone post 1st round pass rushers drafted in the last 10 years? Fro some reason, I feel like there is a huge bust rate when picking these guys. Personally, I won't mind 3 or 4 picks on pass rushers in this draft. As the Giants proved, you can never have enough and you can find gems in later rounds (Jared Allen, Tuck, Wake). Just off the top of my head.. Busts: Aaron curry, Aaron Maybin, Vernon Gholston Hits: Pierre-Paul, Mario Williams, Julius Peppers, Chris Long, Von Miller, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Brian Orakpo. I believe Tamba Hali was a 1st rounder too. I'm sure there's many more busts, but I'm not sure about ones picked in the top 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webster Guy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 (edited) I'm too lazy and I'm finishing up work but could anyone post 1st round pass rushers drafted in the last 10 years? Fro some reason, I feel like there is a huge bust rate when picking these guys. Personally, I won't mind 3 or 4 picks on pass rushers in this draft. As the Giants proved, you can never have enough and you can find gems in later rounds (Jared Allen, Tuck, Wake). I think there is a huge "bust rate" on most NFL first rounders, but you're right it seems like there are a lot of 1st round pass rushers that fall flat. The bottom line is it's hard to find a great one no matter where you pick. Brian Orakpo had only 3.5 more sacks than Marcell Dareus this year, and Clay Matthews only had half a sack more than big 99, and he's obviously not even a pass rusher. These are guys that are better NFL pass rushers than anyone in this year's draft class. I know sack stats don't tell the whole story, and that pressures or drawing double teams can change the game just as much as a sack, but my point is even when you guess right it doesn't mean you automatically win. I agree with your approach of picking up 3 pass rushers in the draft. I thought they would take Coples but then I read that although Coples has the most overall talent of any 4-3 defensive end in the class he had a disappointing senior season in which some say he lacked effort and drive on some plays. At 6'5'' and 281 pounds, he already has an NFL body and is a terrific athlete who can rush the quarterback, play the run well and shed blocks but if he's not motivated as a senior knowing he's going to be a first rounder if he does well, how motivated is he going to be when he gets his $18M guarantee and starts playing on a poorly ranked defense. I think Nix will pass on this dude, although if Wanny wants to go 4-3 then we might have to roll the dice on him at the 10 pick..... Edited January 27, 2012 by Webster Guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Just off the top of my head.. Busts: Aaron curry, Aaron Maybin, Vernon Gholston Hits: Pierre-Paul, Mario Williams, Julius Peppers, Chris Long, Von Miller, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Brian Orakpo. I believe Tamba Hali was a 1st rounder too. I'm sure there's many more busts, but I'm not sure about ones picked in the top 10 Add Ryan Kerrigan, Clay Matthews, Terrell Suggs, Adrian Clayborn, and Jevon Kearse to the list of guys who've produced on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I think there is a huge "bust rate" on most NFL first rounders, but you're right it seems like there are a lot of 1st round pass rushers that fall flat. The bottom line is it's hard to find a great one no matter where you pick. Brian Orakpo had only 3.5 more sacks than Marcell Dareus this year, and Clay Matthews only had half a sack more than big 99, and he's obviously not even a pass rusher. These are guys that are better NFL pass rushers than anyone in this year's draft class. I know sack stats don't tell the whole story, and that pressures or drawing double teams can change the game just as much as a sack, but my point is even when you guess right it doesn't mean you automatically win. I agree with your approach of picking up 3 pass rushers in the draft. I thought they would take Coples but then I read that although Coples has the most overall talent of any 4-3 defensive end in the class he had a disappointing senior season in which some say he lacked effort and drive on some plays. At 6'5'' and 281 pounds, he already has an NFL body and is a terrific athlete who can rush the quarterback, play the run well and shed blocks but if he's not motivated as a senior knowing he's going to be a first rounder if he does well, how motivated is he going to be when he gets his $18M guarantee and starts playing on a poorly ranked defense. I think Nix will pass on this dude, although if Wanny wants to go 4-3 then we might have to roll the dice on him at the 10 pick..... Terrific, well thought out post, and I agree on all points. I share your concern pertaining to Coples "turning it on" to impress scouts and earn his payday, only to flop after he puts 18 million dollars in the bank. I have heard that Coples was frequently played out of position this year at UNC (played a lot of 4-3 DT), so I am hoping that this was the reason for the drop off in production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrhody Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Obviously we dont know everything about these prospects and I'm sure we'll learn alot more with the combine coming up and all that talk that takes place after the superbowl. Coples does seem to have the physical tools to be an absolute monster though. You have to hope that he can be coached in the right way to reach his full potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 1st Coples DE/OLB 2nd Mercilus OLB That would be a pretty decent start in my opinion. Our defenses is our biggest problem. People need to stop whining about Fitz and focus on our real problems. I think Mercilus will be long gone by round 2. Defensive lineman always go higher than expected and I think that he is going to wow them at the combine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Just off the top of my head.. Busts: Aaron curry, Aaron Maybin, Vernon Gholston Hits: Pierre-Paul, Mario Williams, Julius Peppers, Chris Long, Von Miller, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Brian Orakpo. I believe Tamba Hali was a 1st rounder too. I'm sure there's many more busts, but I'm not sure about ones picked in the top 10 I think even more to support your point, I don't think many thought Aaron Curry was a pass rusher. He was supposed to be this fantastic all-around OLB, but not necessarily a dominant pass rusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I think there is a huge "bust rate" on most NFL first rounders, but you're right it seems like there are a lot of 1st round pass rushers that fall flat. The bottom line is it's hard to find a great one no matter where you pick. Brian Orakpo had only 3.5 more sacks than Marcell Dareus this year, and Clay Matthews only had half a sack more than big 99, and he's obviously not even a pass rusher. These are guys that are better NFL pass rushers than anyone in this year's draft class. I know sack stats don't tell the whole story, and that pressures or drawing double teams can change the game just as much as a sack, but my point is even when you guess right it doesn't mean you automatically win. I agree with your approach of picking up 3 pass rushers in the draft. I thought they would take Coples but then I read that although Coples has the most overall talent of any 4-3 defensive end in the class he had a disappointing senior season in which some say he lacked effort and drive on some plays. At 6'5'' and 281 pounds, he already has an NFL body and is a terrific athlete who can rush the quarterback, play the run well and shed blocks but if he's not motivated as a senior knowing he's going to be a first rounder if he does well, how motivated is he going to be when he gets his $18M guarantee and starts playing on a poorly ranked defense. I think Nix will pass on this dude, although if Wanny wants to go 4-3 then we might have to roll the dice on him at the 10 pick..... Good post. I did a quick search of NFL drafts and it's very mixed. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=DL&type=position Some of the busts in the last 5 years: Derrick Harvey, Graham, Tyson Jackson (though he wasn't really a pass rusher), Derrick Morgam, Jerry Hughes, Larry English, Lawrence Jackson, Gaines Adams, Carriker, Jamaal Anderson, Jarvis Moss. That's just from the last 5 years and just the DEs (a guy like Robert Ayers is listed as LB). That's awful. I know we all think the Bills are the worst scouting team ever, but it appears the league struggles to scout pass rushers. Given this information, a guy like Coples scares the hell out of me. Especially given the motivation issues you listed. Upshaw may not be the flashiest pick but he might be the safest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picnic Table F'er Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 (edited) You need to keep track of arm length. Also, pass rushers usually do not shine in their rookie year. Edited January 27, 2012 by Picnic Table F'er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You need to keep track of arm length. Now that would be a good stat to see. Arm length vs. production of a draft pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Upshaw may not be the flashiest pick but he might be the safest. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turftoe Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Good post. I did a quick search of NFL drafts and it's very mixed. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=DL&type=position Some of the busts in the last 5 years: Derrick Harvey, Graham, Tyson Jackson (though he wasn't really a pass rusher), Derrick Morgam, Jerry Hughes, Larry English, Lawrence Jackson, Gaines Adams, Carriker, Jamaal Anderson, Jarvis Moss. That's just from the last 5 years and just the DEs (a guy like Robert Ayers is listed as LB). That's awful. I know we all think the Bills are the worst scouting team ever, but it appears the league struggles to scout pass rushers. Given this information, a guy like Coples scares the hell out of me. Especially given the motivation issues you listed. Upshaw may not be the flashiest pick but he might be the safest. I don't think Upshaw makes it to pick #10. Seems like he is climbing up just about all the draft boards I've read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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