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Website predicts:Bills won't get any comp draft picks


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Just FYI, the topic title is misleading.

 

The writer is predicting the compensatory picks.

 

"I have again this year decided to try to predict compensatory draft picks to feed my draft obsession. Last year I did rather well, in that I was able to correctly assign picks for players with the exception of Seattle and Baltimore, where a midseason contract renegotiation with Cory Redding that I was not aware of gave Baltimore a pick instead of Seattle receiving a rather high pick from losing Burleson. I was also off by a round for a few picks, most of which I can relate to playing time differential.

 

I again claim no credit for the basis behind this work, as I did nothing original. I shamelessly used AdamJT13's publicly posted guidelines as best as I could. You can find his work at adamjt13.blogspot.com. Unfortunately it looks like he has abandoned his research. If you are unfamiliar with his work, the basics that affect comp picks are:

 

1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.

 

2. Players earning minimum salaries do not count.

 

3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.

 

4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts."

 

 

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As Usual SJBF, is right this is not official. The Bills will get at least one pick, IMO but who knows.

Poz left for a lot of money and Donte is on a playoff team (although he isn't being paid that great. Brad may cancel out his contract). The league gave us an extra 7th last year just for being a crap team, I kind of think we will get at least that this year too and one for Poz.

predicting the compensatory picks.

 

If you look at how they did it last year

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d81ef2e1e/article/nfl-distributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-23-clubs

Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a club is covered by this formula. Three clubs this year (Oakland, Seattle and New Orleans) will each receive a compensatory pick even though they did not suffer a net loss of compensatory free agents last year. Under the formula, the compensatory free agents lost by these clubs were ranked higher than the ones they signed (by a specified point differential based upon salary and performance).

 

Twenty one compensatory picks were awarded to clubs based upon the compensatory pick formula. By rule, 11 additional choices were awarded at the end of the seventh round to bring the total number of compensatory selections to 32, equaling the number of NFL clubs. The 11 additional picks were awarded to Carolina, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Denver, Cleveland, Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Dallas, Washington and Houston based upon the 2011 draft selection order.

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What about losing an All Pro safety that helped turn a team from a nothing into a solid Super Bowl contender? We should definitely get something for that.

 

I think you're giving Whitner a lot more credit than he actually deserves. Did you actually watch any 49ers games this year? Their defense would have been in the top 5 with Martin Grammatica at safety.

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Well....we of course could actually USE Kirk Morrison as he has been a productive player everywhere he has been......

 

I really hope Wanstaddt can fix all his. crap....Morrison is a attacking linebacker....Wanstaddts defense as gap attack rather then read and react

 

 

Wanny makes them a 4-3 with a healthy Kyle next to Dareus and a free agent DE or high draft pick and the Bills have a fearsome DL that sets the tone for a massive defensive turnaround. Of course I just said this might hinge on a FA pickup almost any other team would do, so we all know that means it's a fifty-fifty proposition as the only big item left on Ralph's shopping list is a coffin.

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