Buffalo Barbarian Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I've spent more time and energy on the 2011 draft then many people have spent on their Doctoral thesis. Probably has something to do with an 0-8 start in 2010. I've watched almost all of the first round prospects in game action, many times just to see the prospect play. As well as tons of YouTube clips and many different draftnik site's opinion. Below is my assessment of the top 12 prospects the Bills have a shot to take at #3. I'm just one man, not pretending to be a scout but I can tell you I spent more time focusing on the Buffalo Bills in particular than many draftnick's that just seem to mail it in when it comes to Buffalo. The good news is there are tons of options. The bad news is there are tons of options because there are no clear cut top tier prospects. There are 20 people that would be rated #10-20 in most years but there really aren't that many prospects in 2011 that would be rated in th Top5 most years. No top of line QBs or LTs in this draft; unfortunate since we need 1 of each. Haynseworthian Talent: Marcell Dareus: This guy can be an unstoppable force if he wants to. I've seen many Alabama games and the guy can make plays. At least 1 or 2 times a game you'll say “how does a guy that size make plays like that?” Then for 80% of the rest of the game he is invisible. He has the potential to be great but sounds more like McKelvin in interviews. Worrisome plus is a 1 year wonder. Not as worried about the 1 year wonder with him because how is a 18 or 19 year old going to get playing time on Alabama's defense that is chocked full with NFL pros. Possibly Nick Names: Marcellosaurus Nick Fairely The shoe-in for the #1 overall in January and February, he has fallen out of favor mostly over concerns with work ethic and he came into the combine under 300 and was expected by over 300. The guy is a dominant athlete. You just can't find almost 300 lb athletic people like him in the world. He can today, reportedly 360 dunk on a regulation basketball rim. Has only been semi-serious about football the last 4 years and played TE and DE in High School. Would like to get into the mix at TE on goal line plays if given the chance. The concern is motivation and work ethic which is a big one and kind of a 1 year wonder as well. Worrisome. If the Bills took either Fairely or Dareus at #3 they both have huge ceilings and huge basements. Da'Quan Bowers The guy was the #1 High School recruit. Then pretty much disappeared his first two years. His father died after his Sophomore season and to paraphrase told his son to work hard. Well he kicked it into gear his Junior year and had a product season, sacks wise it was nice. To me this guy seems like the prototypical spoiled athlete. Has have had everything given to me since he was a teenager because of his freakish athletic ability and doesn't appear to have the work ethic to live up to his potential. Has his father's passing motivated him to step up and fulfill his potential, or is going to go back to taking it easy once he gets a payday? No one knows, We only have one year to work with. He is top10 talent mostly on reputation. When I watch clips his D-Lineman mates stand out. In particular Jarvis Jenkins which would be a great 3 round pick in my opinion. Also would be weird to have back to back Clemson first round picks. The recent rumors about micro fracture surgery are going to kill his draft stock. Micro Fracturer knee surgery is atleast a year off. If the rumors are true. He may be there at #34. Little Bitty Speed Rusher: Von Miller Why in the world would the Bills want to take an undersized speed rusher with #3 overall pick? No clue. Von Miller will likely be a good player. I think he is more suited to play ILB in the NFL than OLB, especially in a 3-4. This pick would give me some major heartburn. There have been only 2 LBs taken in the Top5 in almost a decade and neither lived up to the draft position. Just a risky risky pick. I watched him in the biggest game of his career and he had 0 backside pursuit. He would just kind of amble around out there if the play wasn't to his side. I was instantly depressed when the Bills took Maybin over Orakpo. This wouldn't be as bad a pick but taking Von Miller over some of these big guys would be a Buffalo Bills style draft botch job. He didn't cover TEs college and even with his 27 sacks the last two years the Texas A&M defense was still 105 in the nation. Expect a similar impact on defense ranking if Miller came to Buffalo. The "QBs" Cam Newton. Anyone that says Cam Newton can't throw the ball is an idiot or racist or both. There is no question he has NFL throwing motion and a nice release. Surprisingly didn't test as high at the combine as expected but still did amazing. The worry is the 21 Wonderlic. The average of all starting Super Bowl QBs Wonderlic is 28 the last 11 years. I don't think that is a coincidence. He does seem to be late in making decisions. I'm not sold. On the flip side the Bills haven't taken a QB with their first 1st round pick in the Super Bowl era ever and have only taken 2 QBs in the first round in total. The only time the Bills have been relevant in the Super Bowl era is when one of those QBs panned out. You can say what you want about Chan, he knows QBs. If Chan and Nix pull the trigger on Cam Newton I'll be cautiously optimistic. If the Bills did nothing but take a QB with their first round pick every other year until one panned out it wouldn't be a bad plan. I'm just not sold on Cam Newton. Yo Gabba-Gabbert. Come on man, really Blaine Gabbert? What is your real name? Well I like him in interviews the guy has his head on straight and killed the Wonderlic. Has a good arm. He needs a lot of coaching though. Didn't seem to be able to read coverages well and just seemed to crumble under pressure. Not really two qualities you like in a Top5 QB. Has tons of question marks. However under Chan's tutelage he might be able to turn into something after sitting a year or two, again not really what you want with a Top5 pick but Nix was involved in drafting Philip Rivers well actually drafting Eli Manning and trading him for Philip Rivers and a boatload of picks. So if Nix and Chan take Gaine Blabbert they must be on to something. Side note I think the Amish Rifle is the perfect QB to start in front of Newton or Gabba for a year. Fitzpatrick has a bit of sporadic noodle arm but if you put his head on Gabba-Gabbert's body; Championship! If the Bills take a QB they can learn a lifetime of Quarterbacking from Fittzy and Chan. Its like a perfect QB Petri-dish. They just need to get the right strain and they can turn it into a deadly QB. Another Side note Jake Locker had 0.0% chance of going #1 overall last year and has 0.1% chance of going in the 1st ROUND this year. Leading into the 2010 draft he had 5-7 season, with 55% completion percentage and a 20 Wonderlic. He crumbles under any kind of pressure and is widely inaccurate. Contrary to common belief he actually did better his senior year, 6-6 with a Bowl win. He is a complete Todd McShay creation. Its likely some team takes a chance on his hype in the 3rd, I hope its not the Bills. He wouldn't even thrive in the Bills perfect QB petri dish. Garbage, he should go play MLB or become a TE because he is a gifted athlete. Not another CB! Patrick Peterson. The guy looks and plays like a safety. He has stiff hips where he doesn't look smooth when he turns out of a back pedal and runs with a WR imo. In college his dominant speed can erase some of his stiffness. In the NFL he still has some dominant speed 4.34 is no joke. He may not be as "shut down" as billed but he will probably play for 12-15 years because when he losses his speed he can still play Safety like many of the elite CBs. The Bills actually need a CB. McGee is declining, CBs have a short shelf life and McGee isn't the kind of guy that transition to Safety. Corner is a good Nickel. McDrainBramage needs to focus on CB fundamentals and not fumbling returns. Florence was probably are best CB last year but he is oldish and a FA. YouBooty might be able to be a #2 CB but definitely needs some coaching. Another player that would be a top 10 pick any year. But seriously another DB in the first!!! Prince Amukamara Doubt the Bills go with Prince but as a side note. I think he might end up being the real "shutdown" CB this year. The Next Calvin Johnson / Larry Fitzgerald or the next Mike Williams / Roy Williams? AJ Green looks like the real thing to me but what's the point if you have no defense, no offensive line, and a questionable QB. A WR is probably one of the least impact and most dependent positions on the football field. How great is Larry Fitzgerald without a QB? That's also how you talk yourself out of taking a possible future HoFer. AJ Green would be a Top5 pick any year and is one of the few elite players in this draft. If the Bills take Green I take that as a sign of confidence in Troup, Carrington, Batten and Moats. Julio Jones Another Top 5 talent any other year. Another player one of the few top tier talent in the 2011 draft. Its possible Carolina or Denver takes AJ Green. Putting the Bills in a good position to trade down (Trading down in th Top10 and picking up a second 2nd pick plus a 3rd or 4th is the real Why So Serious approved move. Just need a trading partner) AJ Green is an athletic freak of nature. Has a bit of the droppsies in college but look at Moss and Owens numbers and their drops. I would pay money to see AJ Green and Julio Jones in a MMA fight or a track race, or a decathelon. Those are two beasts. Both of which could probably take Von Miller out no problem one on one. I want my top3 LB to put the fear of god in WRs not make WRs want to give him a wedgie. Again just say no to Von Miller. Trading Down. In my mind the Top QB, WR, DB, and D-linemen come in pairs in the 2011 draft with a huge perceived drop off to the #3 ranked talent. The trade down opportunity is going to come if Carolina takes Cam Newton and Arizona wants Gabbert. If Newton and Gabbert are both on the board the chances to trade up for a QB go down. This draft will have 1st round defensive talent in most years available in the mid second. Like Stephen Paea DE\NT, Phil Taylor NT, Martez Wilson ILB, Brooks Reed OLB. So it’s not likely a team will trade up for Fairely or Dareus given the sheer tons of impactful defensive players in this draft. DBs don't go very often in the Top5 and a team trading up and paying a premium for Prince Amukamara if Patrick Peterson goes in the Top2 would be unusual but this draft is pretty weak at CB. I think AJ Green and Julio Jones are both the real deal and would be top of the draft any year. As I pointed out early I believe the likelihood to trade down with the Browns or Redskins goes up if AJ green is gone and they want Julio Jones. Any trade down package that includes a Top10 pick, a second, and a 3rd or 4th is a no brainer. Based on the Draft Points chart which many NFL teams use (like the 2point conversion chart) it would take a package like that just to move from #3 overall to #5 overall because of the lack of Top Tier talent you can see a slight discount where that same package may buy the #3 from the #7. Robert Quinn. Not a Buddy nix guy. Had 1 good season in 2009 then suspended for 2010. Buddy nix drafted almost all 4 year players and Team Captain's on their collegiate team in 2010. I don't believe there any chance the Bills take this one year wonder. Plus he is supposed to be physically dominating at 260 lbs and didn't have a good bench press at the combine which just doesn't add up. If he played in 2010 he could probably be the consensus #1 overall if he played well. Although I like the guy in interviews he seems to have his head on straight and seems genuinely humbled by his 2010 suspension. He also had a brain tumor in High School and was forced to grow up faster or atleast face mortality at an early age. Still it’s kind of tough spending the #3 overall pick on a guy that has played as much organized football as I have the last year. Actually I'll be playing a touch football game on Saturday so I'll actually have plaid more organized Football in the last year than Robert Quinn leading into the draft. He could end up being a Randy Moss or Thurman Thomas type of story if many teams start passing on him and then he ends up dominating the NFL. Cameron Jordan I may be over analyzing this but this kid looks like the perfect fit for the Bills. He dominated the Pac10 Jake Locker, Andrew Luck, Foles, and Matt Barkley have all been forcibly introduced to him throughout the years. He is a 4 year player and team captain that makes him A Buddy Nix kind of guy. He can play DE in a 3-4 as he did in college and move inside to DT on Nickel and Dime packages. He can be an unblockable force at times. Putting him on the same line as Kyle Williams mean 3-4 people on opposing Offensive Lines are going to be to pay attention to those two players. This helps keep our linebackers clean so they can make plays. Plus this kid just has "IT." He can be the face of the franchise for the next ten years. He has great bloodlines his father went to Brown and plain in the NFL at TE for a decade. Not to mention Jordan’s former teammate at Cal, Tyson Alualu’s emergence last year, When at the time Tyson was considered a “reach” by the Jags, but the Jags got the last laugh. In a year with no organized team activities until the CBA is settled maybe in June, July, or August. There is no question that Cam Jordan will show up on time, in shape, and ready to go. The same can't be said for Fairely or Dareus. If the Bills trade down Cam Jordan is the target. If they don't I would be happy with a typical Buffalo Bills "reach" and have his name called at #3 overall. Watch this link and tell me you wouldn't like to hear him discussing how he made the air go out of Tom Brady's lungs in the Bills first victory of the Patroits in forever: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-combine/09000d5d81e8001e/Cameron-Jordan-talks-to-press JJ Watt The guy is all motor. Had unexpectedly freakish numbers in the combines. If the Bills trade down and Cam Jordan is off the board. Picking up JJ Watt is a great cancelation prize. If they trade down out of the Top 10. In the 10-20 range JJ Watt is the target. If they go that low. The price would have to be the same package outlined earlier plus a 2012 1st. Now trading future picks has been frowned upon by the NFL. Owners and GMs have been told "buyer beware" meaning there is so much uncertainty right now they can't guarantee a 2012 draft or guarantee that any future draft pick trades can be honored. However with two 2012 1st round picks in tow the odds for Andrew Luck in 2012 go up. If you think there are a lot of options at #3, there triple the options at #34. Names to be aware of: If one of these tackles Fall: (Derek Sherrod:Gabe Carimi:Anthony Castonzo:Tyron Smith:Nate Solder) PhilTaylor NT Baylor Brooks Reed OLB Arizona Martez Wilson ILB Ill Christian Ponder QB FSU Andrew Dalton QB TCU Ryan Mallet QB Arkansas Nice work serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bisonbrigade Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 If you look at the current front office and how they operate some things need to fit so they will draft a player. Last year every player selected was a senior. Players they select this year must have either played at the Senior bowl or have visited One Bills Drive in the last month. Then finally fit a need. If you look at the players brought to OBD they were mostly front seven defensive players or QB's. So here's my guess at the first four rounds. Carolina takes Cam Newton QB and Denver takes Marcell Dareus DE. 1st Round. Cam Jordan DE, Californa. He fits a need, played at the Senior Bowl, visited OBD, can play both 3-4 and 4-3 and has a good blood line. Buddy Nix said earlier this year that he is happy with OLB's so my guess is that Von Miller is out. 2nd Round. Christian Ponder QB, FSU. He fits a need, MVP of the Senior Bowl, recruited by Galley in high school, visited OBD, played in the Pistol Offense which Galley likes, and is smart. 3rd Round. Kelvin Sheppard ILB, LSU. He fits a need, played in the Senior Bowl, and visited OBD. 4th Round. Wright, Shareece CB, USC . Mcgee is old and MCkelvin is bad so fits a need, played in the Senior bowl with Galley. 4th Round from Seatle. Pinkston, Jason OT, Pittsburgh Played in Senior Bowl, played at Pitt for Wannstedt, three year start at LOT and fits a need. I would say I would be happy with this draft. How about You!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roccitybillsfan Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I wouldn't be excited about it, but it would fill needs on the team..... POW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I'd be happy with all those picks if this went down. I'd rather have Newton in the first IF he was there, if not, I'd rather have Quinn I think and depending on who was there in the 2nd i'd rather pass on Ponder for someone like Clayborne and take Kaepernick in the 3rd. I'd be ok if Gailey really wants Ponder and thinks he can be the real deal. Other than that I'd want Newton or Kaepernick. Either way, I would be extremely happy with your draft. And honestly, I think the "pros" would give us decent to good grades for once if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeSpeed Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I just thought this might be fun. Here are my outrageous draft predictions... 1.) Cam Newton will still be available at the start of the second round. 2.) The Bills will draft a WR with their first 2 picks. 3.) This thread will be criticized by someone who is tired of all the pre-draft post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Mallett to Dallas in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playman Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 kapernick goes 1st overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armchair GM Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Mallett to Dallas in the first round. The Raiders will trade up to get Green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdogtim Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Ralph Wilson waddles to the podium and selects Cookie Gilchrist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Bills select JJ Watt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I love threads like this! 1. Zero RBs will be selected in the first round. 2. Either New England or Indy will spend a 1st round pick on a QB 3. Jake Locker will be selected before the first offensive tackle is off the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Bills select JJ Watt Worse things could happen Pete, ya know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Cam Newton slides to second round Worse things could happen Pete, ya know? absolutely Bill. Like we could draft another CB. I would be ok with Watt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
808 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 i admit i didnt watch a lot of ponder. so my question is did he play in the pistol? i thought he was a pro style qb taking snaps from under center. CK was a pistol guy but ponder too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Cam Newton slides to second round absolutely Bill. Like we could draft another CB. I would be ok with Watt Do you remember when we were talking back and forth on draft day/2008 when you posted (in round 7), "holy s---t, we drafted another corner." Time does fly. I will be ok with the Bills drafting a qb at 3, but there is no room for them to miss. Aside from that, I too would be fine with Watt, to be followed by a RT (or a quality TE) in round 2. The team would be stronger, which is a huge step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Great analysis! The only thing I can disagree on is that 2 #1 picks helps to get Luck. Unless Luck totally collapses this year, no team with the #1 pick would trade his rights away. The only way to get Luck is to have the #1 pick when the 2011 season ends. Yeah I agree that its long odds, but having two #1s still increased the odds, from 1 in 1,000,000 to atleast 1 in 999,999 or better. The Buffalo Bills media relations department has charted 107 mock drafts dating back to April 27, 2010. Below is a list of the players most selected for the Bills … 22 - Cam Newton 21 - Von Miller 20 - Marcell Dareus 15 - Blaine Gabbert 8 - Da'Quan Bowers Given Buffalo's drafting history, gives even more fuel to Cameron Jordan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Do you remember when we were talking back and forth on draft day/2008 when you posted (in round 7), "holy s---t, we drafted another corner." Time does fly. I will be ok with the Bills drafting a qb at 3, but there is no room for them to miss. Aside from that, I too would be fine with Watt, to be followed by a RT (or a quality TE) in round 2. The team would be stronger, which is a huge step in the right direction. You and me both are sick of drafting CBs and neglecting the lines. Hopefully we get it right this year. I am like a kid at Christmas on draft day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 (edited) 3) I think you're personal character attack on Bowers is unsubstantiated I didn't really think of it as a personal character attack. I'm just summarizing articles. "His last wish was: 'Challenge yourself this year to be one of the best players in the country. And put your name in the draft. Challenge yourself to be the No. 1 pick of the 2011 draft.' http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2011-03-27-bowers-sw_N.htm I didn't mean is as an attack. It just seems like he didn't live up to his #1 High School recruit status until his Junior year and even then I like the play of Jarvis Jenkins who is right there gang tackling QBs on a lot of Bowers highlight reels. 7) AM I CRAZY, BUT IS PRINCE A DARK-HORSE CANDIDATE AT 3? I think he'll be the best CB of this class. Scary, I know. You can never count anyone out. Out of everyone mentioned I would put him at the bottom of the list, but he is still on the list. I agree with you totally! GM, head coach, positional coaches and scouts really don't know what they're doing! You and Why So Serious would do a great job drafting while watching youtube videos!!! If you measure by result. They don't know what they're doing. I'm not saying I'm qualified. I am saying a blind folded 10 year old with a dart board and a dart can draft better than the Buffalo Bills the last 10-15 years. The jury is still out on Nix as a GM, but this is his second go around at one Bills drive in the last 10-15 years. BTW my DVR during the college season got a lot more workout than YouTube, but yeah I looked at some YouTube videos. OMG!!!! The internet can't possibly have any information on it because there is one article that is incorrect, therefore its all incorrect!!! I read your entire post and agree with you 100%, until you got to the list of the 2nd rounders (I still don’t like Coztanza or Solder and Im not a fan of adding a QB at 34 either) I have always agreed with the things you say about guys – its obvious you know what you are talking about. I would feel better about this upcoming draft if you were running the draft than the cronies we have in there (not saying much, but still a compliment ). I will volunteer for your staff and would also strongly recommend tgreg. My bet is we three could outdraft the Bills staff PS: wanna throw up your big board- if you have one? Thanks for the support. I think we got to start as an assistant quality coach and spend 80 hours a week editing videos for $0.00 a year and then work your way up. I don't think I'm crazy enough to make the move. Edited April 12, 2011 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 you know, I'm really tired of all these pre-draft what if posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tipster19 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 The Bills trade up with Carolina and takes Newton. This should get the board in an uproar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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