Bills 1st rd drafting history on front 7 of defense

[Typical TBD Guy]

The Bills have had 54 first round draft picks in their history, and only 11 (about 20%) of those have gone to the DL and LB positions (which comprise about 30% of a roster). So right away, you can see that the Bills have not properly allocated first round resources to these 7 positions. The historical drafting percentage for a team's front 7 should really be closer to 40%, given the importance of stopping the run and rushing the passer to a team's success.

 

But now looking closer at these 11 picks:

 

1964, 6th overall - Carl Eller - a great pick and a Hall of Famer who unfortunately chose the NFL's Vikings over the AFL's Bills.

1970, 5th overall - Al Cowlings - oh boy.

1972, 1st overall - Walt Patulski - yikes.

1975, 19th overall - Tom Ruud - oops.

1977, 12th overall - Phil Dokes - d'oh.

1979, 1st overall - Tom Cousineau - terrible.

1985, 1st overall - Bruce Smith - finally!

1987, 8th overall - Shane Conlan - another solid pick!

2000, 26th overall - Erik Flowers - thanks a lot, Mr. Butler.

2006, 26th overall - John McCargo - thanks a lot, Mr. Levy.

2009, 11th overall - Aaron Maybin - thanks a lot, Dick.

 

Is it just me or are there a high number of epic draft busts in the above list? I'm not talking about sub-Pro Bowl play not commensurate with their draft spots; I'm talking about guys who could barely get on the field and stay in this league for more than a few years.

 

Two things stand out here:

 

1. The Bills could not scout a DL or LB worth a !@#$ throughout the 1970's.

2. From 1988-2010 (23 frigging years), the Bills only chose 1 DE, 1 DT, and 1 Maybin...all spectacularly legendary busts. Guess how many 1st round DB's the Bills took during that same 23-year period? EIGHT. Yep. EIGHT.

 

Just something to think about for this April's draft. Fairley, Bowers, Quinn, Dareus, Miller...do you think that Nix and Co. will pick one of them? And will they pick the right one?

 

P.S. For those interested, our other 43 first round picks went to the following positions: 3 QB, 10 RB, 6 WR, 3 TE, 10 OL, 11 DB.

[Bangarang]

10 running backs is pretty shocking.

[K-9]

The Bills have had 54 first round draft picks in their history, and only 11 (about 20%) of those have gone to the DL and LB positions (which comprise about 30% of a roster). So right away, you can see that the Bills have not properly allocated first round resources to these 7 positions. The historical drafting percentage for a team's front 7 should really be closer to 40%, given the importance of stopping the run and rushing the passer to a team's success.

 

But now looking closer at these 11 picks:

 

1964, 6th overall - Carl Eller - a great pick and a Hall of Famer who unfortunately chose the NFL's Vikings over the AFL's Bills.

1970, 5th overall - Al Cowlings - oh boy.

1972, 1st overall - Walt Patulski - yikes.

1975, 19th overall - Tom Ruud - oops.

1977, 12th overall - Phil Dokes - d'oh.

1979, 1st overall - Tom Cousineau - terrible.

1985, 1st overall - Bruce Smith - finally!

1987, 8th overall - Shane Conlan - another solid pick!

2000, 26th overall - Erik Flowers - thanks a lot, Mr. Butler.

2006, 26th overall - John McCargo - thanks a lot, Mr. Levy.

2009, 11th overall - Aaron Maybin - thanks a lot, Dick.

 

Is it just me or are there a high number of epic draft busts in the above list? I'm not talking about sub-Pro Bowl play not commensurate with their draft spots; I'm talking about guys who could barely get on the field and stay in this league for more than a few years. ...

 

Tom Cousineau was arguably the BEST first round pick we ever made. He paid dividends for many years after we selected him and was critical to our SB teams.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Justice]

Great!!! That means we're long overdue!!!

[BiggieScooby]

One Hall of Famer in 11 picks ain't too shabby. I will take a .100 batting average. Problem is the misses have been so bad. We are all trying not to think of "Ms. Erin Maybin".

[Geno Smith's Arm]

I don't think you can hold the current regime responsible for the picks they didn't make. I don't mind so much that they haven't made many front 7 1st round selections, what pisses me off is that the PLAYERS that they have chosen haven't turned out. It's not the positions of the players that they are screwing up, it;'s that the guys don't pan out often enough.

[boyst]

We have to go DL, I do not see the next 2 or 3 years being that strong in these positions. They were talking about it on Sirius NFL 124. The amount of DL in this years draft is high. The amount of OL, WR, and QB's is low. The LB's is relatively the same, while DB's are plentiful many are not upper echelon.

 

Also, I thought about Antowain Smith today. Hard to believe he was a 1st round pick, although he went on to success elsewhere, I believe he was worth his draft position in the NFL.

 

Tom Cousineau was arguably the BEST first round pick we ever made. He paid dividends for many years after we selected him and was critical to our SB teams.

Most people will not understand this. If it was not for this, it would be one reason we never had the success of the 90's.

Edited February 19, 2011 by jboyst62

[truth on hold]

DL is a very difficult position to project from college to pros, because they lose the strength/size advantage against the OL. Only a few "no brainers" come to mind like Bruce Smith, Peppers and Suh. That's why so many high profile college DL's are never heard from again in the NFL.

[RunOJRun]

 

Just something to think about for this April's draft. Fairley, Bowers, Quinn, Dareus, Miller...do you think that Nix and Co. will pick one of them? And will they pick the right one?

 

 

If they go with one of the high profile front seven players with the #3 pick, they've got to temper the BPA approach and ensure that they take someone who'll fit into whichever scheme they go with for next season. Don't take someone who's only played 4-3 if you're going 3-4 or visa versa. If you plan on running a hybrid system, make sure you take someone who can play either scheme.

 

Picking a defensive player in the first round who doesn't fit your defense is about a smart as picking a running back in the first round when you've already got Lynch and Jackson on the roster.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Great post, great research. And yes, disturbing findings. But thanks for posting!

[Buffalo Barbarian]

10 running backs is pretty shocking.

can never have enough running backs we had 3 this last decade

[Nanker]

10 running backs is pretty shocking.

 

 

can never have enough running backs we had 3 this last decade

 

nor DBs we had 3 of them this last decade too

[OldTimer1960]

...

 

Picking a defensive player in the first round who doesn't fit your defense is about a smart as picking a running back in the first round when you've already got Lynch and Jackson on the roster.

 

It isn't quite as black and white as this, in my opinion. Most players have only played in one system in college, but

that doesn't mean that they can't (or necessarily can) learn and do well at another system. That's the thing with the

draft - every player is a projection of some sort - step up in competition, change in scheme, etc.

 

I agree, that there is less risk in picking a player whom you have seen play the same scheme/position that he

will in the NFL. However, to discount players projecting to other schemes or positions would be ignoring many

great players. Again, just my $.02 worth.

[1B4IDie]

1. It's not just the front 7. The Bills suck at drafting.

2. Only 3 QBs were drafting in the first round and only 0 with the first pick of the first round in the superbowl era.

3. The Bills really suck at drafting.

4. A TwoBillsDrive consensus poll will draft better than the Bills FO. The Bills really suck at drafting.

Edited February 19, 2011 by Why So Serious?

[Cal Bill's Fan]

I like that idea, during the draft have someone save the consensus from the thread here and see how those work out.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Tom Cousineau was arguably the BEST first round pick we ever made. He paid dividends for many years after we selected him and was critical to our SB teams.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Oh, come. It's hard to argue Tony Hunter did too much for us. Kelly at 12.

 

Cousineau was a good player - for the Browns. And wanted to play for Ground Chuck in B'lo.

[Thoner7]

DL is a very difficult position to project from college to pros, because they lose the strength/size advantage against the OL. Only a few "no brainers" come to mind like Bruce Smith, Peppers and Suh. That's why so many high profile college DL's are never heard from again in the NFL.

 

Dont forget Ngata and Orakpo.

[Billsguy]

I don't think you can hold the current regime responsible for the picks they didn't make. I don't mind so much that they haven't made many front 7 1st round selections, what pisses me off is that the PLAYERS that they have chosen haven't turned out. It's not the positions of the players that they are screwing up, it;'s that the guys don't pan out often enough.

 

Can't hold the the current regime responsible?

 

How about the Ralph Wilson regime?

 

Can he blame it on the previous owner?

 

The Bills have had 54 first round draft picks in their history, and only 11 (about 20%) of those have gone to the DL and LB positions (which comprise about 30% of a roster). So right away, you can see that the Bills have not properly allocated first round resources to these 7 positions. The historical drafting percentage for a team's front 7 should really be closer to 40%, given the importance of stopping the run and rushing the passer to a team's success.

 

But now looking closer at these 11 picks:

 

1964, 6th overall - Carl Eller - a great pick and a Hall of Famer who unfortunately chose the NFL's Vikings over the AFL's Bills.

1970, 5th overall - Al Cowlings - oh boy.

1972, 1st overall - Walt Patulski - yikes.

1975, 19th overall - Tom Ruud - oops.

1977, 12th overall - Phil Dokes - d'oh.

1979, 1st overall - Tom Cousineau - terrible.

1985, 1st overall - Bruce Smith - finally!

1987, 8th overall - Shane Conlan - another solid pick!

2000, 26th overall - Erik Flowers - thanks a lot, Mr. Butler.

2006, 26th overall - John McCargo - thanks a lot, Mr. Levy.

2009, 11th overall - Aaron Maybin - thanks a lot, Dick.

 

Is it just me or are there a high number of epic draft busts in the above list? I'm not talking about sub-Pro Bowl play not commensurate with their draft spots; I'm talking about guys who could barely get on the field and stay in this league for more than a few years.

 

Two things stand out here:

 

1. The Bills could not scout a DL or LB worth a !@#$ throughout the 1970's.

2. From 1988-2010 (23 frigging years), the Bills only chose 1 DE, 1 DT, and 1 Maybin...all spectacularly legendary busts. Guess how many 1st round DB's the Bills took during that same 23-year period? EIGHT. Yep. EIGHT.

 

Just something to think about for this April's draft. Fairley, Bowers, Quinn, Dareus, Miller...do you think that Nix and Co. will pick one of them? And will they pick the right one?

 

P.S. For those interested, our other 43 first round picks went to the following positions: 3 QB, 10 RB, 6 WR, 3 TE, 10 OL, 11 DB.

 

 

Great post.

 

Bills reality sucks!

[K-9]

Oh, come. It's hard to argue Tony Hunter did too much for us. Kelly at 12.

 

Cousineau was a good player - for the Browns. And wanted to play for Ground Chuck in B'lo.

 

You lost me here. What do you mean by "Kelly at 12?" We took Hunter at 12 with our own selection in the '83 draft. Kelly was chosen two picks later with the first round pick the Browns gave us for Cousineau.

 

I agree Cousineau was a pretty good player. In both the CFL and with the Browns. Stew Barber and RW screwed the pooch on that deal and it was a contributing factor in Knox's disgust with the Bills. Had the Browns not offered their first round pick in '83 there is a good chance Cousineau would have played for the Bills. Nobody thought Buffalo would match Houston's (then) record contract offer for Cousineau but they did.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Typical TBD Guy]

Thank you for the comments and criticism, everybody. Keep 'em coming!

 

I'd like to address a couple points that have come up...

 

Regarding the Cousineau draft pick, it WAS a busted pick. Yes, it eventually gave us the 14th overall in 1983 that turned into Kelly, but who's to say that the Bills wouldn't have taken Kelly at 12th overall instead of Tony Hunter if they knew they didn't also have the 14th pick? And was Cousineau really that much of a success with the Browns? I'd expect a LOT more from the 1st overall pick. Captain Hindsight would say that the Bills should have picked Dan Hampton (or Joe Montana, actually, but that would have been too controversial at the time).

 

Also, I was NOT attempting to hold Nix and Co. accountable for the poor DL and LB drafting of the past 51 years. This was more of a "FYI/FWIW" and "Bills in general suck" type of post with no specific agenda. The only person who can ultimately be blamed for this is Ralph Wilson. None of us have any idea how long any of the current team scouts have had their jobs here, but they certainly have not been around with the team for as long as Ralph has.

 

However, it might actually be fair to blame the current scouting team on the Maybin, McCargo, and even Flowers picks. All three were probably recent enough. So what lessons can be learned from these mistakes? Let's review:

 

1. Flowers - classic "workout warrior" who skyrocketed up draft boards much farther than the game film would have suggested.

 

2. McCargo - played on the same line as Mario Williams (1st overall) and Manny Lawson (22nd overall), so I'm guessing those two made McCargo look much better in college than he actually was.

 

3. Maybin - only had a few really good games against smallish OT's as a sophomore, and he was also - erroneously - projected to gain enough bulk to play 4-3 DE despite having the natural shoulder frame and torso of a WR.

 

So basically, PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE GAME FILM. Pay attention not just to the player's performance, but to the teammates around him and the competition he's playing against.