Ralph's thoughts on the CBA, the team, the draft

[San Jose Bills Fan]

It's just - to hoist all of the hopes and pent-up misery of this team onto the back of a troubled kid from the South whose leadership has been questioned and whose father looms in the background like a character on Friday Night Lights... I don't know, it just terrifies me. I'm not saying they shouldn't pick him, but holy cucumber is it ever a gamble. And it's not like this franchise has been flush with luck. It's just a really scary thought to me. Buffalo is a peculiar type of place that isn't for everyone. Ask Willis McGahee. It takes a certain kind of character to endure the atmosphere, and I don't know if Newton is mature and focused enough to be that guy. Glad I'm not making the decision, I guess.

Wow…very interesting take and one that I haven't seen expressed here ever, with regard to anyone.

 

I don't necessarily agree or disagree but I've not seen this articulated before. Thank you for the unique perspective.

 

 

[The Senator]

 

You take that back.

 

OK, I take it back.

 

But NFL Draft Scout has him pegged at the #2 QB in the 2013 draft, right behind Andrew Luck (link) - whom we know is declaring for the 2012 draft (as will Jones, I think, and possibly Thomas as well).

Edited February 17, 2011 by The Senator

[ETD66SS]

Thanks for posting, Beerball.

 

No one should be sold on Fitz.

[Joe Miner]

 

OK, I take it back.

 

But NFL Draft Scout has him pegged at the #2 QB in the 2013 draft, right behind Andrew Luck (link) - whom we know is declaring for the 2012 draft (as will Jones, I think, and possibly Thomas as well).

 

He'll have tons of impressive stats by then.

 

I just wouldn't want him as the starting QB of my pro team, unless he really improves this next year.

[JohnC]

The Monet actually had value.

 

A calculated risk involves some significant benefit that will outweigh that risk. Wilson bet $25 million and a first round pick on a guy who had one decent start in his career (not even like Kolb).

 

That was a sucker's bet that needed no "incredible hindsight (a joke?)" to predict it as such. There was absolutley nothing about RJ even at that time to justify this monumetally stupid move.

 

New Orleans took a calculated risk on an injured Drew Brees that the Dolphins were not willing to take. It payed off. You can look back in hindsight and criticize the acquisition of Rob Johnson. It simply didn't work out. I'd rather give credit to a franchise for trying to get better rather than accept the status quo. Even the best run franchises such as the Pats and Eagles make personnel decisions that don't work out. That is the nature of the business. When something doesn't work out then pursue another option. That is how teams get better.

 

With respect to Rob Johnson he did exceptionally well in a short stint as an injury replacement for Brunell in Jacksonville. There is no doubt that the Bills were seduced by Johnson's physical talents. What they didn't know until they played him for an extended period of time is that his head for the game neutralized his physical abilities. Having Doug Flutie constantly stabbing him in the back certainly didn't help his development either.

[Gordio]

which is why you cannot judge things based on stats alone.

Anybody who watches football and has at least half brain can see that Fitz is nowhere near as good as Kelly was.

 

 

Settle down there, I was just simply stating that Fitz's stats were not bad last year. He was the least of our problem. If Nix believes there is a franchise qb @ 3 then by all means grab him. Why force the issue though? This teams has holes all over the field. Take the BPA.

[Buftex]

The Monet actually had value.

 

A calculated risk involves some significant benefit that will outweigh that risk. Wilson bet $25 million and a first round pick on a guy who had one decent start in his career (not even like Kolb).

 

That was a sucker's bet that needed no "incredible hindsight (a joke?)" to predict it as such. There was absolutley nothing about RJ even at that time to justify this monumetally stupid move.

 

Okay...but, if Johnson had turned out to be the player many (not just the Bills) thought he would be, it would have paid off in the long run. It didn't.

 

IMO, Johnson was a very physically gifted QB, but just not mental toughness to be a leader, or overcome a more popular, backstabbing teammate. For all the hand-wringing over him, he wasn't even the worst QB the Bills have had in the last 15 years. The money the Bills spent him could have just as easily been wasted on a 1st round draft pick that didn't pan out. I am guessing I don't need to list a bunch of those...Johnson had been in the league a couple of seasons as a back-up, and dazzled in his, albeit brief, time as a starter for Jacksonville. If those circumstances present themselves again, I guarantee you, some NFL teams will still take that risk. And it may pay off for them...you never know...and nobody really knew that back in 1997 either.

Edited February 17, 2011 by Buftex

[San Jose Bills Fan]

New Orleans took a calculated risk on an injured Drew Brees that the Dolphins were not willing to take. It payed off. You can look back in hindsight and criticize the acquisition of Rob Johnson. It simply didn't work out. I'd rather give credit to a franchise for trying to get better rather than accept the status quo. Even the best run franchises such as the Pats and Eagles make personnel decisions that don't work out. That is the nature of the business. When something doesn't work out then pursue another option. That is how teams get better.

 

With respect to Rob Johnson he did exceptionally well in a short stint as an injury replacement for Brunell in Jacksonville. There is no doubt that the Bills were seduced by Johnson's physical talents. What they didn't know until they played him for an extended period of time is that his head for the game neutralized his physical abilities. Having Doug Flutie constantly stabbing him in the back certainly didn't help his development either.

 

 

Okay...but, if Johnson had turned out to be the player many (not just the Bills) thought he would be, it would have paid off in the long run. It didn't.

 

IMO, Johnson was a very physically gifted QB, but just not mental toughness to be a leader, or overcome a more popular, backstabbing teammate. For all the hand-wringing over him, he wasn't even the worst QB the Bills have had in the last 15 years. The money the Bills spent him could have just as easily been wasted on a 1st round draft pick that didn't pan out. I am guessing I don't need to list a bunch of those...Johnson had been in the league a couple of seasons as a back-up, and dazzled in his, albeit brief, time as a starter for Jacksonville. If those circumstances present themselves again, I guarantee you, some NFL teams will still take that risk. And it may pay off for them...you never know...and nobody really knew that back in 1997 either.

To both of you who are great posters, I want to address the calculated risk aspect of acquiring Rob Johnson and the argument that the Bills could be lauded for their aggressiveness in pursuing him. I would rebut that it was a bad calculated risk. The sample size was just too small relative to the investment (1st and 4th round draft picks, $25 million). Billy Volek comes to mind as a QB who made a similar brief splash as Johnson did, similarly Scott Mitchell. Kevin Kolb in a larger sample size has had some highs and lows. It's a matter of how much these players proved and what it cost to acquire them. The Bills can be lauded, but it could be strongly argued beforehand and certainly in hindsight that the Bills made a bad decision.

 

As for Drew Brees, he was injured so New Orleans took a risk in that regard, but before his injury he had a Pro Bowl season with the Chargers in 2004…so that was a totally different sort of risk.

 

As for the Doug Flutie point, I would say that an NFL quarterback has to overcome adversity of all types. Johnson's inability to succeed speaks not to Flutie, IMO, but rather to Johnson's lack of mental toughness. By all accounts, Favre was a terrible teammate to Aaron Rodgers, didn't mentor him, and did nothing to help his career. Joe Montana was said to have a similarly unhelpful attitude towards Steve Young. Both Rodgers and Young were able to overcome the hurdles of a starter who was unwilling to help their careers and in fact may have done things to undermine their careers.

Edited February 17, 2011 by San Jose Bills Fan

[Doc]

Simple solution. Then take Gabbert.

And if Gabbert doesn't pan out, is it Ralph's fault?

Wilson compared Johnson to "a Monet."

So you're saying Wilson, playing pro personnel director, caught that Jags-Ravens game to start the 1997 season, kept it in his memory bank for 6 months, and then told John Butler "do what it takes to get this guy?" Highly unlikely.

[JohnC]

And if Gabbert doesn't pan out, is it Ralph's fault?

 

If Newton or Gabbert were drafted and didn't work out I would not criticize him at all. I would give him credit for acknowledging the obvious, that successful teams usually have talented franchise qbs. There are plenty of opportunities to criticize the clueless owner. Wanting an upgrade at qb is not one of them.

[Mr. WEO]

New Orleans took a calculated risk on an injured Drew Brees that the Dolphins were not willing to take. It payed off. You can look back in hindsight and criticize the acquisition of Rob Johnson. It simply didn't work out. I'd rather give credit to a franchise for trying to get better rather than accept the status quo. Even the best run franchises such as the Pats and Eagles make personnel decisions that don't work out. That is the nature of the business. When something doesn't work out then pursue another option. That is how teams get better.

 

With respect to Rob Johnson he did exceptionally well in a short stint as an injury replacement for Brunell in Jacksonville. There is no doubt that the Bills were seduced by Johnson's physical talents. What they didn't know until they played him for an extended period of time is that his head for the game neutralized his physical abilities. Having Doug Flutie constantly stabbing him in the back certainly didn't help his development either.

 

 

Okay...but, if Johnson had turned out to be the player many (not just the Bills) thought he would be, it would have paid off in the long run. It didn't.

 

IMO, Johnson was a very physically gifted QB, but just not mental toughness to be a leader, or overcome a more popular, backstabbing teammate. For all the hand-wringing over him, he wasn't even the worst QB the Bills have had in the last 15 years. The money the Bills spent him could have just as easily been wasted on a 1st round draft pick that didn't pan out. I am guessing I don't need to list a bunch of those...Johnson had been in the league a couple of seasons as a back-up, and dazzled in his, albeit brief, time as a starter for Jacksonville. If those circumstances present themselves again, I guarantee you, some NFL teams will still take that risk. And it may pay off for them...you never know...and nobody really knew that back in 1997 either.

 

 

To both of you who are great posters, I want to address the calculated risk aspect of acquiring Rob Johnson and the argument that the Bills could be lauded for their aggressiveness in pursuing him. I would rebut that it was a bad calculated risk. The sample size was just too small relative to the investment (1st and 4th round draft picks, $25 million). Billy Volek comes to mind as a QB who made a similar brief splash as Johnson did, similarly Scott Mitchell. Kevin Kolb in a larger sample size has had some highs and lows. It's a matter of how much these players proved and what it cost to acquire them. The Bills can be lauded, but it could be strongly argued beforehand and certainly in hindsight that the Bills made a bad decision.

 

As for Drew Brees, he was injured so New Orleans took a risk in that regard, but before his injury he had a Pro Bowl season with the Chargers in 2004…so that was a totally different sort of risk.

 

As for the Doug Flutie point, I would say that an NFL quarterback has to overcome adversity of all types. Johnson's inability to succeed speaks not to Flutie, IMO, but rather to Johnson's lack of mental toughness. By all accounts, Favre was a terrible teammate to Aaron Rodgers, didn't mentor him, and did nothing to help his career. Joe Montana was said to have a similarly unhelpful attitude towards Steve Young. Both Rodgers and Young were able to overcome the hurdles of a starter who was unwilling to help their careers and in fact may have done things to undermine their careers.

SJB is right. This was a poorly calculated risk--nothing like Brees, who was a good QB with possibly a devestatin injury. RJ was on no one's wish list. He had accomplished nothing. He parlayed one good game into a payday offered by a fool. That is not to be lauded.

 

And if Gabbert doesn't pan out, is it Ralph's fault?

 

So you're saying Wilson, playing pro personnel director, caught that Jags-Ravens game to start the 1997 season, kept it in his memory bank for 6 months, and then told John Butler "do what it takes to get this guy?" Highly unlikely.

Look, doc, your desire to excuse Ralph form his most blatantly foolish decision in 20 years is proof positive that you will never find fault with the guy's stewardship of this team for over ten years. He's a genius or naive dullard when it suits you.

[JohnC]

To both of you who are great posters, I want to address the calculated risk aspect of acquiring Rob Johnson and the argument that the Bills could be lauded for their aggressiveness in pursuing him. I would rebut that it was a bad calculated risk. The sample size was just too small relative to the investment (1st and 4th round draft picks, $25 million). Billy Volek comes to mind as a QB who made a similar brief splash as Johnson did, similarly Scott Mitchell. Kevin Kolb in a larger sample size has had some highs and lows. It's a matter of how much these players proved and what it cost to acquire them. The Bills can be lauded, but it could be strongly argued beforehand and certainly in hindsight that the Bills made a bad decision.

 

As for Drew Brees, he was injured so New Orleans took a risk in that regard, but before his injury he had a Pro Bowl season with the Chargers in 2004…so that was a totally different sort of risk.

 

As for the Doug Flutie point, I would say that an NFL quarterback has to overcome adversity of all types. Johnson's inability to succeed speaks not to Flutie, IMO, but rather to Johnson's lack of mental toughness. By all accounts, Favre was a terrible teammate to Aaron Rodgers, didn't mentor him, and did nothing to help his career. Joe Montana was said to have a similarly unhelpful attitude towards Steve Young. Both Rodgers and Young were able to overcome the hurdles of a starter who was unwilling to help their careers and in fact may have done things to undermine their careers.

 

I'm not denying that the Rob Johnson trade was a calculated risk. Johnson did have a short stint of starts replacing the injured Brunell. Johnson played exceptionally well in those games. As I previously stated the Bills were seduced by RJ's physical tools. What they found out is that he did not have a head for the game. The same athletic and tools seduction occurred with the drafting of Losman. He, as did RJ, simply didn't have it. So you move on and don't linger.

 

A number of years ago the Packers gave up a second round pick to Atlanta to acquire Favre. Without a doubt that worked out. The Eagles took a risk signing the troubled Vick. Although the organization received a lot of criticisms it has worked out for the Eagles. The Dolphins decided not to sign Brees because of injury concerns. In hindsight that was a disasterous decision.

 

The Bills are more known for being a passive and status quo organization than they are for being a creative and risk taking organization. Don't you agree that you would rather have your team try to get better and fail at it rather than idly sit by and accept their mediocrity without making the effort to upgrade their puny status?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

FITZ SUCKS. He just doesn't suck as bad as any of the other QBs we've had since Kelly.

Anybody who is sold on Fitz being the longterm answer for the Bills at QB, please identify yourself so I can add you to my ignore list since you clearly no absolutely nothing about winning football.

 

I don't understand how anybody can be surprised by this. The #1 priority for any NFL franchise to identify and acquire a franchise QB. We don't currently have one so it should not surprise anybody that Ralph wants to go find one.

 

You know, I think I might like to be ignored by you - even though I don't quite qualify as saying "I'm sold on Fitz being the longterm answer", I don't think he sucks, I think he's shown he has the capabilities to be a solid NFL starter and I'd like to see what he's got with a better line, a TE, and a preseason as "the man". Plus, I don't agree that the #1 priority for any NFL franchise is to identify and acquire a franchise QB

 

Is that close enough for you to add me to your ignore list? I don't think I mind if you think I clearly "no" absolutely nothing about winning football.

 

Thanks!

[Doc]

Look, doc, your desire to excuse Ralph form his most blatantly foolish decision in 20 years is proof positive that you will never find fault with the guy's stewardship of this team for over ten years. He's a genius or naive dullard when it suits you.

Wilson can rightfully be criticized for failing to hire the correct people to run the organization. He's the owner and the ultimate responsibility rests with him for the product on the field (off-the-field, he's been a wildly successful NFL owner). However to believe that he's been doing it intentionally/maliciously, and to blame every (or even any) bad personnel decision on him, is foolish.

 

Again, Wilson happening to see that one start by RJ and telling Butler to "make it happen" doesn't pass the smell test.

Edited February 18, 2011 by Doc

[Hapless Bills Fan]

It's just - to hoist all of the hopes and pent-up misery of this team onto the back of a troubled kid from the South whose leadership has been questioned and whose father looms in the background like a character on Friday Night Lights... I don't know, it just terrifies me. I'm not saying they shouldn't pick him, but holy cucumber is it ever a gamble. And it's not like this franchise has been flush with luck. It's just a really scary thought to me. Buffalo is a peculiar type of place that isn't for everyone. Ask Willis McGahee. It takes a certain kind of character to endure the atmosphere, and I don't know if Newton is mature and focused enough to be that guy. Glad I'm not making the decision, I guess.

 

This is a very thoughtful post. Great perspective.

 

To both of you who are great posters, I want to address the calculated risk aspect of acquiring Rob Johnson and the argument that the Bills could be lauded for their aggressiveness in pursuing him. I would rebut that it was a bad calculated risk. The sample size was just too small relative to the investment (1st and 4th round draft picks, $25 million). Billy Volek comes to mind as a QB who made a similar brief splash as Johnson did, similarly Scott Mitchell. Kevin Kolb in a larger sample size has had some highs and lows. It's a matter of how much these players proved and what it cost to acquire them. The Bills can be lauded, but it could be strongly argued beforehand and certainly in hindsight that the Bills made a bad decision.

 

As for Drew Brees, he was injured so New Orleans took a risk in that regard, but before his injury he had a Pro Bowl season with the Chargers in 2004…so that was a totally different sort of risk.

 

As for the Doug Flutie point, I would say that an NFL quarterback has to overcome adversity of all types. Johnson's inability to succeed speaks not to Flutie, IMO, but rather to Johnson's lack of mental toughness. By all accounts, Favre was a terrible teammate to Aaron Rodgers, didn't mentor him, and did nothing to help his career. Joe Montana was said to have a similarly unhelpful attitude towards Steve Young. Both Rodgers and Young were able to overcome the hurdles of a starter who was unwilling to help their careers and in fact may have done things to undermine their careers.

 

Great post, SJBF. I agree. With Johnson, the sample size was too small relative to the investment.

Brees, on the other hand, had demonstrated that he had the capability to be a quality QB. At worst he was a proven, solid NFL starter who had had a great year and shown flashes of brilliance the others.

 

That's fundamentally what bothers me about Newton. He had a fantastic year this last year. He's also done a bunch of dumb things, and played at an elite level of competition only one year. I think his sample size is too small. I disagree with the Bills as a status quo organization. I think we have a history of trying to be "smarter" than everyone else on our player e v a l. and pull off the splendid steal with the "sleeper". I see that coming.

 

As for Fitz, I think he hurt his stock with Ralph in the Pats game with all the INTs. The question is whether Ralph has learned to sit back and let his pros drive and abide by whatever Nix and Gailey's private evaluation may be. Publically, Gailey says Fitz has accuracy and expresses confidence that he can get better and we can go to the playoffs with him.

[Astrobot]

As much as I want to go defense first in this draft, it's starting to look more and more like Newton.

 

It's not like we can't get what we want if we do take Newton, or Gabbert.

 

1-Newton QB

2-Clayborn DE

3-Beal OLB

4-Gantt TE

4-Ellis NT

5-Bynes ILB

6-Thornton DE

7-Mims OT

[Bill from NYC]

It's not like we can't get what we want if we do take Newton, or Gabbert.

 

1-Newton QB

2-Clayborn DE

3-Beal OLB

4-Gantt TE

4-Ellis NT

5-Bynes ILB

6-Thornton DE

7-Mims OT

 

Astroman, do you think that the comments by Mr. Wilson indicate that the Bills will select a first round quarterback? I for one do, and I have thought this sinece his earlier comments.

 

Also, would you mind posting a scenario in which the Bills trade down, but stay in the top 10 and STILL draft a qb with the first pick? Btw, the above draft leaves us very weak at OT imo.

 

And really, thanks again for putting so much work into this stuff. Seriously, you really do add a ton to this great site!

[JohnC]

 

 

Great post, SJBF. I agree. With Johnson, the sample size was too small relative to the investment.

Brees, on the other hand, had demonstrated that he had the capability to be a quality QB. At worst he was a proven, solid NFL starter who had had a great year and shown flashes of brilliance the others.

 

I acknowledged the fact that the Bills took a gamble on RJ. It didn't work out. That doesn't mean that the organization should shy away from pursuing players they believe that can help the organization. Even very good organizations such as the Pats and Eagles make personnel decisions that don't work out. When it happens the best approach to take is to acknowledge the mistake and move on. As it stands the Bills have not had a quality franchise qb since the retirement of Jim Kelly, almost a generation ago.

 

That's fundamentally what bothers me about Newton. He had a fantastic year this last year. He's also done a bunch of dumb things, and played at an elite level of competition only one year. I think his sample size is too small. I disagree with the Bills as a status quo organization.

 

Is Newton or Gabbert a risk pick? Yes. So is every high first round pick. If our scouts don't believe that either qb merits being taken with our first pick then they shouldn't be selected. If the organization has major character concerns or whatever issues they have with respect to CN then they should take someone else. Whatever due diligence is going to be applied to CN is also going to be applied to other highly ranked players.

 

As for Fitz, I think he hurt his stock with Ralph in the Pats game with all the INTs. The question is whether Ralph has learned to sit back and let his pros drive and abide by whatever Nix and Gailey's private evaluation may be. Publically, Gailey says Fitz has accuracy and expresses confidence that he can get better and we can go to the playoffs with him.

 

What Gailey or Nix says publicly about any player should be discounted. Do you expect Gailey to publicly criticize his current starting qb?

 

You are probably right that Fitz lost some stock with the owner with his putrid performance against the Pats. I'm also sure that it also had a negative affect on Gailey and Nix regarding their evaluation of him.

 

I think we have a history of trying to be "smarter" than everyone else on our player e v a l. and pull off the splendid steal with the "sleeper". I see that coming.

 

I have a simpler explanation for how this organization drafts. In general, they are bad evaluators of talent. For the past decade the scouting department has performed at a mediocre level. For the most part the scouting department is led by and staffed with the same people.

Edited February 18, 2011 by JohnC

[JohnC]

It's not like we can't get what we want if we do take Newton, or Gabbert.

 

1-Newton QB

2-Clayborn DE

3-Beal OLB

4-Gantt TE

4-Ellis NT

5-Bynes ILB

6-Thornton DE

7-Mims OT

 

You make a great point that other needs can still be addressed if the Bills take a qb in the first round. I'm hoping a CBA deal can get struck in time to allow the free agent market to be used to augment the roster, especially the defense.

 

As NY Bill stated in a prior post your backbreaking effort on the draft is very much appreciated. You add a dimension to this board that can't be duplicated. You are TSW's version of Mel Kiper-Tod McShay-Mike Mayock rolled into one.

[dave mcbride]

I also heard it was Butler who was behind the RJ trade. That quote could be interpreted to mean that all it took for Wilson (who signs-off on moves) to be convinced by Butler was that one game. Now if you have a quote that says Wilson was the driving force behind the trade, it would hold more weight.

 

If Newton impresses that much, he'll be a Panther.

I remember the trajectory of events very clearly. Wilson sat in the owner's box of this Ravens-Jax game: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199708310rav.htm .

 

Wilson was reportedly blown away by Johnson's performance. Not to say that Butler wasn't a fan too, but Wilson was in all probability the driving force.

Edited February 18, 2011 by dave mcbride