LA Takes a big step towards getting the NFL back

[Playoff Bound]

The weather is nice most of the year so they can rent out the parking lot for swap meets and RV sales. That should cover the shortfall in revenue on the rent. Really though, the two teams that still have a following in the Los Angeles are the Chargers and the Raiders. I would give the nod to the Chargers. The Chargers have been pushing for a new stadium in San Diego for years and there is no support for it if it requires public funds. I could see them moving to Los Angeles and I could see them with fan support. The entire Los Angeles population extends south to Orange County, east to the Inland Empire and north to Santa Barbara. They would support one team with no problem, especially one with "roots" to the area like the Chargers have.

[8-8 Forever?]

Pegula is out. He is going to spend alot of money in multiple areas, the Bills aren't one of them.

Golisano isn't interested in another round in sports franchises either.

Jacobs? Maybe, but he lacks the financial means to achieve all of the necessary goals for the Bills to stay in Buffalo.

Rich? No way, he is down with this area.

Kelly? Hahahahahaha, please, if this guy had the tools together, it'd be a done deal already.

 

No, I think many people here are discounting what the real cost of the Bills is going to be.

It's not just the franchise itself. It's the new Domed Stadium that will without a doubt, have to be built for any Professional Football Team to stay here in the area and remain financially viable.

The team itself is no longer justified given the ever shrinking fan base regionally due to the constant lose of population numbers in the region as industries continue to downsize, fail or pack up and leave.

 

Without a Domed Stadium, the Bills are as good as gone, it's merely a matter of time now.

The cost of a Domed Stadium engineered for the eastern end of the Great Lakes would be roughly 1.7 billion dollars or more.

That does not include the price of the team.

Yep. Upon Ralph's demise and an open auction of the team, it is hard to imagine the numbers working for someone to both outbid everyone else for the team AND run it in WNY. If they stay in RWS it might work, but if a new stadium is part of the requirement, then hard to imagine anyone taking that kind of financial risk. No owner in the league wants their team to play at RWS and share half of that paltry gate when they can split half the gate in L.A., where tickets will be 2 to 3 times what they are at RWS. The bills staying in Buffalo post-Ralph has to be viewed as absolutely a possibility given an existing stadium/fan base but who wants to financially risk $700Million(!) to run a business in an economic climate like WNY?

Edited February 2, 2011 by 8and8Forever

[Fan in San Diego]

I still have yet to hear a good explanation as to how these two (or three) entities are going to make enough money to make this feasible.

 

And unless a lot of people know something and aren't talking about it (which is quite possible), the environmental study is still a huge hurdle.

 

I don't see any way in hell a team is going to be worth twice what it is worth now by moving to LA unless they own the stadium and get all the money from it. If they are going to rent it from AEG (which would have to be an outrageous price), they wouldn't be getting all of the parking and concessions and luxury boxes which are the single things that make stadium owners in big cities like Kraft, Jones and Snyder the big bucks. I've read numerous articles on the idea and none of them explained that. I don't even see how AEG is going to make a ton of money on a 2 billion dollar project when they don't own a team, and have to split the sizable amount of money an NFL team makes with the owners of the team(s). And I've yet to see Anshutz say he's for it.

 

IMO, it's far from a done deal. I'm just glad there isn't a lot of talk about the Bills moving there. I also wasn't at all impressed with the LA retreads they trotted out for it, outside of Magic.

 

Environmental study? Have you seen the area where they are talking about? A toxic landfill with a chemical scrubbing plant would be an upgrade. I went to a McDonald's once a long time ago by Hollywood Park which is in the vicinity of the proposed stadium I believe. They had 6 inches of bullet proof glass to order a big mac. I have never been back to that area since.

[metzelaars_lives]

Why do people speculate on where the Bills are going to move? The Bills are not going to move while Ralph is alive and after he dies, they're going to go wherever the hell the highest bidder wants to move them to. Thusly, the Bills proximity to Toronto doesn't make them any better a candidate to move there over LA. If the new owner thinks LA is a more viable market than Toronto- which it is- he's gonna move them there. Regardless, the Bills aren't going anywhere so long as LA already has a team by the time that Ralph Wilson dies. No one is going to roll the dice on Toronto or San Antonio or Oklahoma City being a more profitable long-term football market than Buffalo. You could buy the Bills tomorrow and know that you're going to profit X amount of dollars every year anyway.

[Kelly the Dog]

Environmental study? Have you seen the area where they are talking about? A toxic landfill with a chemical scrubbing plant would be an upgrade. I went to a McDonald's once a long time ago by Hollywood Park which is in the vicinity of the proposed stadium I believe. They had 6 inches of bullet proof glass to order a big mac. I have never been back to that area since.

Hollywood Park is nowhere near downtown or The Staples Center where the stadium is being planned. I live in LA. The stadium is being planned right in downtown Los Angeles. Two blocks from where all the skyscrapers start.

[stony]

Pegula is out. He is going to spend alot of money in multiple areas, the Bills aren't one of them.

Golisano isn't interested in another round in sports franchises either.

Jacobs? Maybe, but he lacks the financial means to achieve all of the necessary goals for the Bills to stay in Buffalo.

Rich? No way, he is down with this area.

Kelly? Hahahahahaha, please, if this guy had the tools together, it'd be a done deal already.

 

No, I think many people here are discounting what the real cost of the Bills is going to be.

It's not just the franchise itself. It's the new Domed Stadium that will without a doubt, have to be built for any Professional Football Team to stay here in the area and remain financially viable.

The team itself is no longer justified given the ever shrinking fan base regionally due to the constant lose of population numbers in the region as industries continue to downsize, fail or pack up and leave.

 

Without a Domed Stadium, the Bills are as good as gone, it's merely a matter of time now.

The cost of a Domed Stadium engineered for the eastern end of the Great Lakes would be roughly 1.7 billion dollars or more.

That does not include the price of the team.

 

Just curious where you got this number from. Lucas Oil Stadium was built for 750mil and is good enough to host a Superbowl.

 

You speak of the weather of the Great Lakes like it sits on a fault line in California with a volcano a mile a way. Chicago and Cleveland both appear to get by with open-aired stadiums.

[CosmicBills]

The Final Four isn't going to be in LA every year. Maybe every 10. Same with Super Bowl. LA likey has tons of convention space--how many organizations need a massive stadium for a convention. Assume the weekly gate for 8 home games is 7 or 8 million--a chink of that goes to the visiting team. How much is left for the team to pay in "rent"? There is no such model anywhere in the League (or in pro sports?)--any teams paying rent for their stadiums (like Ralph) are paying a nominal fee at most.

 

None of what you mention explains how these guys cover the monthly nut on a billion plus loan.

LA doesn't get a lot of the big conventions because there isn't enough hotel space downtown. They said on the radio that there are something like 2,500 hotel rooms in downtown LA, compared to Denver which was over 10,000. Most of the big conventions go to Vegas when they swing out west because of this. A new stadium next to Staples most likely will mean several new hotels nearby in downtown to accommodate -- which is part of the whole "stimulate downtown" plan for AEG.

 

They certainly won't get a Final Four every year, but they'll get it more than once a decade. And once you're on the Final Four circuit that means you get the regional rounds more often as well.

 

Point is, AEG has been building sports complexes all over the country. They know what they're doing and wouldn't be sinking money into a stadium in downtown LA without a means of making money. I'm not sure what that is exactly, but I found it interesting that they said they didn't need to have full ownership of a franchise to be financially viable. And now that the city and state seem to be behind their plan (thanks to Farmers) it's going to happen.

 

Again I have no idea what they have to do to cover their nut nor what their financial plan is. I'm only reporting what AEG's president said yesterday ... so take it for what it's worth.

[Kelly the Dog]

LA doesn't get a lot of the big conventions because there isn't enough hotel space downtown. They said on the radio that there are something like 2,500 hotel rooms in downtown LA, compared to Denver which was over 10,000. Most of the big conventions go to Vegas when they swing out west because of this. A new stadium next to Staples most likely will mean several new hotels nearby in downtown to accommodate -- which is part of the whole "stimulate downtown" plan for AEG.

 

They certainly won't get a Final Four every year, but they'll get it more than once a decade. And once you're on the Final Four circuit that means you get the regional rounds more often as well.

 

Point is, AEG has been building sports complexes all over the country. They know what they're doing and wouldn't be sinking money into a stadium in downtown LA without a means of making money. I'm not sure what that is exactly, but I found it interesting that they said they didn't need to have full ownership of a franchise to be financially viable. And now that the city and state seem to be behind their plan (thanks to Farmers) it's going to happen.

 

Again I have no idea what they have to do to cover their nut nor what their financial plan is. I'm only reporting what AEG's president said yesterday ... so take it for what it's worth.

There are two things going on when they talk about "conventions" in the new proposed complex. The plan is to build the stadium where the convention center is now. The new AEG plan includes building a new convention hall, called The West Hall, next door to the stadium. That would have to be completed before they built the stadium so the city doesn't lose convention bookings already scheduled. Then they would bulldoze the old convention center and build the stadium there. Once the stadium was built, enormous conventions could be held in the retractable roof stadium. But most would be in the West Hall which would be run by AEG. There are arguments now between the city and citizens and AEG over who exactly would own the new hall. the city makes a bunch of money running the convention center and some citizens don't want AEG to now have it.

 

One thing interesting is that AEG promised Farmers that there would be 50 events per year in the stadium. With only 10 for the NFL, 40 per year would have to be concerts and conventions and college games, etc. That's a lot, but they obviously couldn't get the deal if they couldn't get the events. The naming agreement only goes into effect if 4-5 things happen first. It's surely a lot closer to happening than it has been in 20 years but a long way to go as well. I don't think they think they can make it work without two NFL teams. Corporations would buy up all the tickets to ensure the sellouts in the first few years. Long term liability and fan interest is a whole other ball game but that wouldn't be known until ten years after a team is moved here. If that happens.

[Heitz]

Pegula is out. He is going to spend alot of money in multiple areas, the Bills aren't one of them.

Golisano isn't interested in another round in sports franchises either.

Jacobs? Maybe, but he lacks the financial means to achieve all of the necessary goals for the Bills to stay in Buffalo.

Rich? No way, he is down with this area.

Kelly? Hahahahahaha, please, if this guy had the tools together, it'd be a done deal already.

 

Guess you know more than anyone else...

 

Just wanted to touch on that first point, from a Buffalo Rumblings article:

 

if the sale of the Sabres came through at $175 million, it'd represent just 5.8 percent of Pegula's total net worth, which exceeds $3 billion. Gleason reports that Pegula's true passion is Sabres hockey, but that Pegula is a Bills fan "with a fondness for the Detroit Lions". Gleason writes: "Without getting too far ahead, sources said, he would be very interested in buying the Bills after the passing of owner Ralph C. Wilson Jr., now 92, if enough variables fall into place."

 

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2010/12/2/1850502/report-terry-pegula-may-have-interest-in-buying-buffalo-bills

 

 

I think time will tell on this one...

[Mr. WEO]

There are two things going on when they talk about "conventions" in the new proposed complex. The plan is to build the stadium where the convention center is now. The new AEG plan includes building a new convention hall, called The West Hall, next door to the stadium. That would have to be completed before they built the stadium so the city doesn't lose convention bookings already scheduled. Then they would bulldoze the old convention center and build the stadium there. Once the stadium was built, enormous conventions could be held in the retractable roof stadium. But most would be in the West Hall which would be run by AEG. There are arguments now between the city and citizens and AEG over who exactly would own the new hall. the city makes a bunch of money running the convention center and some citizens don't want AEG to now have it.

 

One thing interesting is that AEG promised Farmers that there would be 50 events per year in the stadium. With only 10 for the NFL, 40 per year would have to be concerts and conventions and college games, etc. That's a lot, but they obviously couldn't get the deal if they couldn't get the events. The naming agreement only goes into effect if 4-5 things happen first. It's surely a lot closer to happening than it has been in 20 years but a long way to go as well. I don't think they think they can make it work without two NFL teams. Corporations would buy up all the tickets to ensure the sellouts in the first few years. Long term liability and fan interest is a whole other ball game but that wouldn't be known until ten years after a team is moved here. If that happens.

If most current conventions are being moved to a new convention center, what "enormous conventions" will be staged in the stadium? If there aren't adequate hotel rooms nearby, the whole enormous convention concept is dead in the water.

 

Where are these stadium concerts currently being staged in LA? And the "college basketball" angle isn't viable. What current stadium is hosting such games with any freuquency? There are at least 6 facilities for the used for the Final Four, which is booked through 2016. A new LA stadium would be competing with them.

 

At the new Meadowlands Stadium, from now through August, the entire event calender consisist of 2 soccer games, a day of college lacrosse, a 3 day D-list concert event (to be held in the parking lot), a U2 concert and a Kenney Chesney concert.

 

That's it. But the owners of that stadium own two profitable NFL teams.

[Kelly the Dog]

If most current conventions are being moved to a new convention center, what "enormous conventions" will be staged in the stadium? If there aren't adequate hotel rooms nearby, the whole enormous convention concept is dead in the water.

 

Where are these stadium concerts currently being staged in LA? And the "college basketball" angle isn't viable. What current stadium is hosting such games with any freuquency? There are at least 6 facilities for the used for the Final Four, which is booked through 2016. A new LA stadium would be competing with them.

 

At the new Meadowlands Stadium, from now through August, the entire event calender consisist of 2 soccer games, a day of college lacrosse, a 3 day D-list concert event (to be held in the parking lot), a U2 concert and a Kenney Chesney concert.

 

That's it. But the owners of that stadium own two profitable NFL teams.

You cannot compare LA to any other city in the country, for both good and bad stuff, especially things like "hotel rooms". There are huge hotels everywhere. There may be only 2500 rooms in "downtown" LA but it's 10-20 minutes from Hollywood and Pasadena and Beverly Hills where there are all kinds of great hotels and where more action is, where people may prefer to stay.

 

The actual agreement with Farmers stipulates there must be 50 events per year. They are not going to sign the thing without the guarantee (it hasn't, of course, been signed yet and won't be until the stadium breaks ground, if that ever happens). But again, LA is different. LA gets every single event plus some coming through it. Most arenas may have, what, 60-80 events per year? The Staples Center right next door to the stadium has over 250 events per year. That's extraordinary. They house three major sports teams, which is unheard of, and still do another 125 events besides that. Some, if not a lot of those would likely go into the stadium. It's not even going to be that big at 64,000 seats.

[nucci]

We'll move to Toronto before we move to Los Angeles, and for that I am not too worried, other then having to get in to Canada. I don't have a red-haired mullet, don't really like Canadian beers, and can enunciate all of the letters in the alphabet.

Blaspemy!!

[yungmack]

LA, they don't deserve a team since they let two go and showed no interest when "their" team was awarded to Houston.

That's just factual nonsense.

[DC Tom]

You've got to figure that the Chargers and Jags are the frontunners right now, with the Vikings, Raiders, Rams, and Bills as dark horses.

 

Chargers might move to LA.

 

The Bills and Vikings...the league would LOVE to see either of those in the LA market. Keep in mind, when the league talks about "small market team", they mean small TV market. Moving the Bills to LA significantly increases the value of the next broadcast contract significantly, and the powers in the league - Jerry Jones, Dan Snyder, Bob Kraft - couldn't care less about gate receipts in LA or Buffalo, as maximizing their brands and income are directly tied to increased national TV exposure and more lucrative TV contracts.

[yungmack]

LA, they don't deserve a team since they let two go and showed no interest when "their" team was awarded to Houston.

That's just factual nonsense.

[Kelly the Dog]

Chargers might move to LA.

 

The Bills and Vikings...the league would LOVE to see either of those in the LA market. Keep in mind, when the league talks about "small market team", they mean small TV market. Moving the Bills to LA significantly increases the value of the next broadcast contract significantly, and the powers in the league - Jerry Jones, Dan Snyder, Bob Kraft - couldn't care less about gate receipts in LA or Buffalo, as maximizing their brands and income are directly tied to increased national TV exposure and more lucrative TV contracts.

I really don't think that is true. I think the TV networks pay as much as they possibly can right now for those rights, and the NFL gets every possible dollar out of them as they can. I don't think the LA ratings would make the contracts go up at all, let alone a lot. Not to mention that LA is such a transient town, people who move here still root for their teams they always did, even if there were LA teams. The sports bar business and DirecTV NFL Season Ticket business is huge here and hugely important to the NFL. The amount the ratings get locally would increase substantially from Buffalo (more raw numbers but far less percentage viewership), but that money would not go to the NFL; rather to the networks and local stations charging more for ad rates. The NFL actually wants the Bills to stay in Buffalo from everything I know. They don't lose fans when people move away, they gain NFL Season Ticket revenue.

[CJPearl2]

It's going to be the Chargers. I'm almost 100% sure. Here's how I know:

 

I live in Southern California. A good friend of mine's brother works for AEG (company that owns LA Live, the Staples Center and the new stadium rights to a downtown stadium next to Staples - the one that Farmers just agreed to provide the naming rights to). He has been telling us for a year or so that the Chargers are moving to LA. He also told us about AEG's interest in buying a percentage of the Chargers long before it was reported in the press (it's still not done, but in the works, in fact Spanos has hired Goldman Sachs to sell his miniority share about 36% - his kids own 60%). AEG also (and this isn't from my contact, but from knowledge of LA politics) has a lot of "influence" with the LA City Council. AEG is going to be the group that gets the team. And right now, the focus is 100% on San Diego. The fan base is close (2 hours from SD with a lot of Chargers fans in Northern SD County and OC/LA area as well). Most importantly, SD is not going to get a new publically financed stadium and from February 1 and April 30 of every year from now through 2020, the Chargers can get out of their lease by simply writing a check to the city of San Diego — this year, the amount is about $26 million, and it decreases annually.

 

Our Bills are safe from any LA move. The focus is on the Chargers. I'll post more info if I get it (I may be seeing this friend's brother this weekend on a ski trip).

[Mr. WEO]

You cannot compare LA to any other city in the country, for both good and bad stuff, especially things like "hotel rooms". There are huge hotels everywhere. There may be only 2500 rooms in "downtown" LA but it's 10-20 minutes from Hollywood and Pasadena and Beverly Hills where there are all kinds of great hotels and where more action is, where people may prefer to stay.

 

The actual agreement with Farmers stipulates there must be 50 events per year. They are not going to sign the thing without the guarantee (it hasn't, of course, been signed yet and won't be until the stadium breaks ground, if that ever happens). But again, LA is different. LA gets every single event plus some coming through it. Most arenas may have, what, 60-80 events per year? The Staples Center right next door to the stadium has over 250 events per year. That's extraordinary. They house three major sports teams, which is unheard of, and still do another 125 events besides that. Some, if not a lot of those would likely go into the stadium. It's not even going to be that big at 64,000 seats.

I was comparing LA to NYC, which I think is a fair comparison. It has tens of thousands of hotel rooms. It has a brand new stadium. With 2 NFL teams playing 20 games a year, they won't get near 50 events a year. The Staples Center holds all of those events because that's all the space those events need--a 15-20,000 seat venue. What event non major sports event wants (or can afford to stage in) a 64,000 seat stadium? Vegas is fairly close by, has many large convention centers, is a far more attractive convention town and has far lower labor costs compared to NYC and LA.

 

Farmers is wise to not put the ink to the paper.

 

I really don't think that is true. I think the TV networks pay as much as they possibly can right now for those rights, and the NFL gets every possible dollar out of them as they can. I don't think the LA ratings would make the contracts go up at all, let alone a lot. Not to mention that LA is such a transient town, people who move here still root for their teams they always did, even if there were LA teams. The sports bar business and DirecTV NFL Season Ticket business is huge here and hugely important to the NFL. The amount the ratings get locally would increase substantially from Buffalo (more raw numbers but far less percentage viewership), but that money would not go to the NFL; rather to the networks and local stations charging more for ad rates. The NFL actually wants the Bills to stay in Buffalo from everything I know. They don't lose fans when people move away, they gain NFL Season Ticket revenue.

 

 

You're correct, it is unlikely adding a team to the TV contracts would make a significant difference in their value, given how expensive they are now and that almost all networks are involved already to some degree. The league would have a really tough sell if they demanded more money simply because of a team in LA---especially if that team is "The LA Bills" (as currently configured).

[Just Jack]

I wonder what it would take to put a dome over RWS. If I was designing it, I'd put walls where the chain link fence is currently, use the bathroom towers for some of the roof support structure, and putting in a retracable roof similar to what Arizona has.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

 

Farmers is wise to not put the ink to the paper.

The point is that Farmers agreed to pay the 700 million based on 50 events a year in the stadium. AEG is guaranteeing them 50 events in return for the money. AEG must know they can get 50 events (unless this entire thing is a sham, and I doubt very much that it is).

 

The ink is put to paper as soon as one NFL team agrees to be a tenant, the ecological problem is resolved, and the city and AEG solve all other issues so there are no more hurdles to prevent the stadium from being constructed. As far as AEG and Farmers is concerned, they have both agreed there are going to be at least 50 events per year there.