Luck supporters get used to Mallett~

[TH3]

The Billies are going to win a game here - probably next week. Carolina is going to lose out. Bills probably won't have the first pick....Bulldog is going to have to be put in a padded room.

 

I like Mallett too.

Edited November 8, 2010 by baskin

[The Wang From Sang]

:flirt:Mullet won't go in the top 8 selections.

[Captain Hindsight]

Mallet may be the Top QB in the draft this year but that doesnt mean hes the best pick for us

[The Senator]

I keep trying - so far to no avail - to tell the Luck-lovers that they've got it skewed - they seem to want the Bills to continue losing every game this season so we can draft Andrew Luck. The problem is, Andy's staying at Stanford next year.

 

Luck-lovers, what the Bills REALLY need to do is not only continue to lose every game this season (just to protect our draft interests on the extreme long shot that Luck comes out this year), but also lose every game next season - when Luck does finally graduate and enter the draft.

 

That way, we'll have the first pick and our choice of Andy Luck OR - even better yet - Darron Thomas, who will make Luck-lovers forget all about Andy and throw him on the giant scrap-pile of TSW QBs-du-jour!

[billsfaninvgs]

The Billies are going to win a game here - probably next week. Carolina is going to lose out. Bills probably won't have the first pick....Bulldog is going to have to be put in a padded room.

 

I like Mallett too.

 

It's going to be hard to beat the lions

[Captain Hindsight]

It's going to be hard to beat the lions

Stafford may be out.... But yes it wont be easy. Their D is very underrated

[DanInUticaTampa]

but but but, carolina has Clausen, the GREAT QB the bills passed on twice! They wouldn't use their 1st overall pick on a QB, would they?

[KOKBILLS]

:flirt:Mullet won't go in the top 8 selections.

 

We'll see...It's WAY too early to assume that, especially if you've actually watched Mallett play...The questions with Mallett are mostly off the field and in the Film room...And none of those questions have been proven yet...Based on the way he plays, if Mallett interviewed well and had the reputation that Luck has, it would be a heck of a battle between the 2 of them for #1 Overall...And it still may turn out to be...So let's wait and see what happens...I see a lot of folks assuming Mallett is stupid, or a pot head, or a meth head, blah, blah, blah...But on most Saturdays the Kid goes out and puts up big numbers against SEC competition and makes it look pretty easy...His arm is made for Buffalo winters...So I would not be so quick to write him off as a potential #1 or #2 Overall just yet...

[The Senator]

The Billies are going to win a game here - probably next week. Carolina is going to lose out. Bills probably won't have the first pick....Bulldog is going to have to be put in a padded room.

 

I like Mallett too.

Bu..but...but Carolina already has the 'greatest, most NFL-ready QB to ever come out of the draft' - last season's draft-darling and TSW's former-favorite QB-du-jour...

 

Jimmy 'The Emu' Clausen

Edited November 8, 2010 by The Senator

[Fixxxer]

but but but, carolina has Clausen, the GREAT QB the bills passed on twice! They wouldn't use their 1st overall pick on a QB, would they?

 

Those lucky bastards are set for the next decade.

[1B4IDie]

The Billies are going to win a game here - probably next week. Carolina is going to lose out. Bills probably won't have the first pick....Bulldog is going to have to be put in a padded room.

 

I like Mallett too.

 

That is correct not because of the reason you're giving but because Luck will be playing for Stanford in 2011

 

 

:flirt:Mullet won't go in the top 8 selections.

 

Thats just a silly statement. If Mallet declares he is likely a top 16 pick.

[N.Y. Orangeman]

I keep trying - so far to no avail - to tell the Luck-lovers that they've got it skewed - they seem to want the Bills to continue losing every game this season so we can draft Andrew Luck. The problem is, Andy's staying at Stanford next year.

 

Luck-lovers, what the Bills REALLY need to do is not only continue to lose every game this season (just to protect our draft interests on the extreme long shot that Luck comes out this year), but also lose every game next season - when Luck does finally graduate and enter the draft.

 

That way, we'll have the first pick and our choice of Andy Luck OR - even better yet - Darron Thomas, who will make Luck-lovers forget all about Andy and throw him on the giant scrap-pile of TSW QBs-du-jour!

 

You don't know with any more certainty than the "Luck-lovers" what Andrew Luck will do. There have been reports both that he is staying and that he is leaving.

[Ray]

And a lot of scouts have Mallet as a 2nd-3rd round grade. Certianly not worth a top 5 pick in the draft.

[Erik]

You don't know with any more certainty than the "Luck-lovers" what Andrew Luck will do. There have been reports both that he is staying and that he is leaving.

 

Exactly. At the very least the whole thing will be up in the air if Harbaugh leaves Stanford and we won't know about that for a few months now.

[UlyssesNorris]

If we dont get luck the we take best DE or LT and Fitz remains the starter. That scenario would not be that bad IMO.

[Orton's Arm]

I keep trying - so far to no avail - to tell the Luck-lovers that they've got it skewed - they seem to want the Bills to continue losing every game this season so we can draft Andrew Luck. The problem is, Andy's staying at Stanford next year.

 

Luck-lovers, what the Bills REALLY need to do is not only continue to lose every game this season (just to protect our draft interests on the extreme long shot that Luck comes out this year), but also lose every game next season - when Luck does finally graduate and enter the draft.

 

That way, we'll have the first pick and our choice of Andy Luck OR - even better yet - Darron Thomas, who will make Luck-lovers forget all about Andy and throw him on the giant scrap-pile of TSW QBs-du-jour!

This team is 0-8 for a number of reasons, one of the most important of which is a lack of talent. The main way of adding talent is through the draft. A pick early in the first round is worth more than a pick later in the first. Getting early draft picks is a good way for the Bills to solve their underlying problem (lack of talent) rather than merely masking its symptoms (by getting a few meaningless wins).

 

An 0-16 or 1-15 record gets us a better, more valuable pick than the 8-8 record for which you are rooting. The first overall pick is worth 3000 points; the 16th overall pick is worth just 1000 points. Your proposed strategy would gut 2/3 of the value of the Bills' first round pick in exchange for eight meaningless wins. You'd also be reducing the value of the Bills' picks in rounds 2 - 7, albeit to a lesser degree.

 

If the Bills go 0-16 this year, two things would have to happen for the Bills to miss out on Luck. First, he'd have to wait a year before entering the NFL draft. That is far from being a certainty, especially considering the very real possibility of a new, much lower rookie cap. Secondly, the labor dispute would have to get resolved quickly enough to allow football in 2011. That too is very far from being a certainty! But even if both those things happen, an 0-16 or 1-15 record still gets the Bills an opportunity to draft a front seven player very early! The last time the Bills took a front seven player first overall, he turned out to be Bruce Smith. More generally, you'd expect a player taken in the top-5 of the draft to be an elite difference-maker, which is exactly what this team needs!

[Mr. WEO]

This team is 0-8 for a number of reasons, one of the most important of which is a lack of talent. The main way of adding talent is through the draft. A pick early in the first round is worth more than a pick later in the first. Getting early draft picks is a good way for the Bills to solve their underlying problem (lack of talent) rather than merely masking its symptoms (by getting a few meaningless wins).

 

An 0-16 or 1-15 record gets us a better, more valuable pick than the 8-8 record for which you are rooting. The first overall pick is worth 3000 points; the 16th overall pick is worth just 1000 points. Your proposed strategy would gut 2/3 of the value of the Bills' first round pick in exchange for eight meaningless wins. You'd also be reducing the value of the Bills' picks in rounds 2 - 7, albeit to a lesser degree.

 

If the Bills go 0-16 this year, two things would have to happen for the Bills to miss out on Luck. First, he'd have to wait a year before entering the NFL draft. That is far from being a certainty, especially considering the very real possibility of a new, much lower rookie cap. Secondly, the labor dispute would have to get resolved quickly enough to allow football in 2011. That too is very far from being a certainty! But even if both those things happen, an 0-16 or 1-15 record still gets the Bills an opportunity to draft a front seven player very early! The last time the Bills took a front seven player first overall, he turned out to be Bruce Smith. More generally, you'd expect a player taken in the top-5 of the draft to be an elite difference-maker, which is exactly what this team needs!

 

If the new CBA gets done before the old one expires, it will include a rookie cap and it will apply to this year's draft.

 

I would expect any top 10 (or 11) player in the draft to be an elite difference maker.

 

Oh well....

[TH3]

Well,

 

I guess my topic starter logic was this....for better or worse I was on the NYS Thruway listening to the game...then Dope and his Lapdog. Bulldog and the morning boys (well Jeremey - who now wants the Bills to tank games) seem to have strapped the blinders on....if we don't end up with Andrew Luck sometime next April you might as well pull the plug on life itself - and as well - a solid year of talking about A Luck on the radio will have gone to waste.

 

Well - I think their is a higher probability that the Bills won't have the #1 pick as Carolina and others seem to valid chances - and the Bills lose the SOS factor in any tie.

 

Shoot - if Mallett is a #2 and Bills get him in the Second round....that would be good. I watched a couple of Arkansas games and my limited scouting ability leaves me to believe he will be a solid player on Sundays.

 

If Mallett isn't the number two QB - who is?

 

Also - I did look at player rankings and Luck isn't even close to being rated the number one player in the draft.

[The Senator]

This team is 0-8 for a number of reasons, one of the most important of which is a lack of talent. The main way of adding talent is through the draft. A pick early in the first round is worth more than a pick later in the first. Getting early draft picks is a good way for the Bills to solve their underlying problem (lack of talent) rather than merely masking its symptoms (by getting a few meaningless wins).

 

An 0-16 or 1-15 record gets us a better, more valuable pick than the 8-8 record for which you are rooting. The first overall pick is worth 3000 points; the 16th overall pick is worth just 1000 points. Your proposed strategy would gut 2/3 of the value of the Bills' first round pick in exchange for eight meaningless wins. You'd also be reducing the value of the Bills' picks in rounds 2 - 7, albeit to a lesser degree.

 

If the Bills go 0-16 this year, two things would have to happen for the Bills to miss out on Luck. First, he'd have to wait a year before entering the NFL draft. That is far from being a certainty, especially considering the very real possibility of a new, much lower rookie cap. Secondly, the labor dispute would have to get resolved quickly enough to allow football in 2011. That too is very far from being a certainty! But even if both those things happen, an 0-16 or 1-15 record still gets the Bills an opportunity to draft a front seven player very early! The last time the Bills took a front seven player first overall, he turned out to be Bruce Smith. More generally, you'd expect a player taken in the top-5 of the draft to be an elite difference-maker, which is exactly what this team needs!

Boy that Mike Williams sure was a 'difference-maker'.

 

Try telling the professional athletes on the Bills roster and their coaches that they shouldn';t mind losing, but rather should want to lose because they'll get a better draft pick. The draft is what it is - we'll get a good players in every round if our F.O. staff do their jobs well.

 

Only misguided idiots want their team to lose on Sundays.

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

8 and 8, baby!!!!!

[Talley56]

Bu..but...but Carolina already has the 'greatest, most NFL-ready QB to ever come out of the draft' - last season's draft-darling and TSW's former-favorite QB-du-jour...

 

Jimmy 'The Emu' Clausen

How great Clausen is isn't the point. The point is it would make no sense for them to draft a potential franchise QB two straight years. I would be stunned if they go QB with their first pick no matter who comes out of college.

Edited November 8, 2010 by Talley56

[The Senator]

How great Clausen is isn't the point. The point is it would make no sense for them to draft a potential franchise QB two straight years. I would be stunned if they go QB with their first pick no matter who comes out of college.

You're right - they should wait - they should only draft a 'potential franchise QB' every three years...like the Chargers!

[stony]

How great Clausen is isn't the point. The point is it would make no sense for them to draft a potential franchise QB two straight years. I would be stunned if they go QB with their first pick no matter who comes out of college.

 

Hypothetically your right. But John Fox is gone after this year and an organizational shake-up might be in order. If so, the incoming regime has no allegiance to Clausen and he might be a goner.

[KOKBILLS]

Hypothetically your right. But John Fox is gone after this year and an organizational shake-up might be in order. If so, the incoming regime has no allegiance to Clausen and he might be a goner.

 

Well I doubt he would be a goner...But having Clausen certainly won't stop the new regime from Picking a QB high if that's what they want to do...

[Orton's Arm]

Boy that Mike Williams sure was a 'difference-maker'.

 

Try telling the professional athletes on the Bills roster and their coaches that they shouldn';t mind losing, but rather should want to lose because they'll get a better draft pick. The draft is what it is - we'll get a good players in every round if our F.O. staff do their jobs well.

 

Only misguided idiots want their team to lose on Sundays.

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

8 and 8, baby!!!!!

Your post makes no serious attempt to address the points I raised. Unless, of course, you were using the Mike Williams example in an attempt to show that a top-5 pick is no more likely to become an elite difference-maker than a top-20 pick. If that's the point you were trying to convey, you are simply and wholly wrong.

 

Let's look at Bill Polian as an example of this. Below are the first round picks for which he was responsible

 

Top-5 picks

• Bruce Smith, 1st overall, 1985. Result: First ballot Hall of Fame.
  
• Kerry Collins, 5th overall, 1995. Result: Decent player.
  
• Peyton Manning, 1st overall, 1998. Result: First ballot Hall of Fame.
  
• Edgerrin James, 4th overall, 1999. Result: Good player.

Picks 6- 10

• Shane Conlan, LB, 8th overall, 1987. Result: Pro Bowl player.
  
• Timanga Biakabatuka, 8th overall, 1996. Result: near bust.

Picks 11 - 20

• Derrick Burroughs, DB, 14th overall, 1985. Result: Bust.
  
• Ronnie Harmon, RB, 16th overall, 1986. Result: Bust.
  
• Will Wolford, LT, 20th overall, 1968. Result: Pro Bowl player.
  
• James Williams, 16th overall, DB, 1990. Result: Bust.
  
• Dwight Freeny, 11th overall, 2002. Result: Pro Bowl player.

Picks 21 - 32

• Henry Jones, 26th overall, 1991. Result: a semi-decent player.
  
• John Fina, 27th overall, 1992. Result: a semi-decent player.
  
• Tyrone Poole, 22nd overall, 1995. Result: a decent player.
  
• Rob Morris, LB, 28th overall, 2000. Result: a decent player.
  
• Reggie Wayne, 30th overall, 2001. Result: a Pro Bowl player.
  
• Dallas Clark, 24th overall, 2003. Result: a very good player.
  
• Marlin Jackson, 29th overall, 2004. Result: bust
  
• Joseph Addai, 30th overall, 2006. Result: a solid player.
  
• Anthony Gonzalez, WR, 32nd overall, 2007. Result: bust

Bill Polian has picked in the top-5 on four separate occasions. In two cases (both picking first overall) he came away with some of the best players in NFL history: Bruce Smith and Peyton Manning. His worst top-5 pick was Kerry Collins (5th overall), and even he had a decent career.

 

Conversely, Polian has picked in the 21 - 32 range on nine separate occasions. His two best players from those nine picks were Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. He also acquired players like Joseph Addai, Henry Jones, John Fina, Tyrone Poole, and Rob Morris (in addition to some busts).

 

But I would argue that Polian acquired significantly more value from his top-5 picks (Bruce Smith, Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, and Kerry Collins) than he did from his picks in the 21 - 32 range. This, despite the fact that he had only four picks in the top-5, but had nine picks from 21 - 32.

 

Contrary to the misinformed opinions of some on these boards, the NFL's draft day value chart exists for a reason. A top-5 pick is more valuable than a pick later on in the first round. A good GM like Polian does not have some magic wand to make that fact go away. If Polian is picking 32nd overall, and if the players he wanted the most were taken before he had a chance to pick, he's going to have to content himself with his second- or third tier of choices. Over the long haul, that's going to hurt him, as the above drafting record clearly indicates.

Edited November 8, 2010 by Edwards' Arm

[jr1]

Bledsoe 2.0

[KOKBILLS]

Bledsoe 2.0

 

Great analysis!

 

Bledsoe as a Jr. at Washington St...

 

241-432 (55.8%), 3246 Yards, 20 TD's, 15 INT's, 127.2 QB Rating...

 

Mallett as a Jr. in the SEC SO FAR...

 

193-289 (66.8 %), 2752 Yards, 18 TD's, 8 INT's, 162.93 QB Rating...

 

Just because they are both tall and don't run like Mike Vick does not make them the same QB...

[mattsox]

They're gonna take the Best player available in the draft at any position. This is how the Bills build through the draft. If the QB they like is there, they may break the rule. But they do grades on all the players. Buddy will stick to his board.

[1B4IDie]

Great analysis!

 

Bledsoe as a Jr. at Washington St...

 

241-432 (55.8%), 3246 Yards, 20 TD's, 15 INT's, 127.2 QB Rating...

 

Mallett as a Jr. in the SEC SO FAR...

 

193-289 (66.8 %), 2752 Yards, 18 TD's, 8 INT's, 162.93 QB Rating...

 

Just because they are both tall and don't run like Mike Vick does not make them the same QB...

 

Right on KOK

plus I'd like a link to 1 site that has Mallet as a 3rd round pick?

 

The lowest grade I have ever seen Mallet given is a late first\early second, and even those grades are more outliers than average

 

Mallet going #3 overall is 1000 times more likely than Mallet going in the 3rd round.

 

Its Locker that has the 2nd and 3rd round grades.

 

Check my signature: plus we'd lucky to get Mallet if he were available when we pick, because Luck won't be there until the 2012 draft.

Edited November 8, 2010 by Levitre + Wang = Wood

[KOKBILLS]

Right on KOK

plus I'd like a link to 1 site that has Mallet as a 3rd round pick?

 

The lowest grade I have ever seen Mallet given is a late first\early second, and even those grades are more outliers than average

 

Mallet going #3 overall is 1000 times more likely than Mallet going in the 3rd round.

 

Its Locker that has the 2nd and 3rd round grades.

 

Check my signature: plus we'd lucky to get Mallet if he were available when we pick, because Luck won't be there until the 2012 draft.

 

Mallett is going up against one tough SEC Team after another on most Saturdays, and besides a bad 4th Quarter vs. Alabama, he's REALLY come out looking good...There is no way Buddy Nix is going to look past what Mallett has done in the SEC this Year...No way...He was 10-15 for 96 yards and a TD vs. the #1 Team in the Country on the Road before he got knocked out of that Game...Mallett is 3-1 in Road Games at Georgia, Auburn, Texas A&M, and South Carolina this Year...That's not too bad...Bills Fans better pay attention because Ryan Mallett is definitely going to be in the mix for that 1st Pick assuming he keeps doing what he's been doing this year...

[The Senator]

Your post makes no serious attempt to address the points I raised. Unless, of course, you were using the Mike Williams example in an attempt to show that a top-5 pick is no more likely to become an elite difference-maker than a top-20 pick. If that's the point you were trying to convey, you are simply and wholly wrong.

 

Let's look at Bill Polian as an example of this. Below are the first round picks for which he was responsible

 

Top-5 picks

• Bruce Smith, 1st overall, 1985. Result: First ballot Hall of Fame.
  
• Kerry Collins, 5th overall, 1995. Result: Decent player.
  
• Peyton Manning, 1st overall, 1998. Result: First ballot Hall of Fame.
  
• Edgerrin James, 4th overall, 1999. Result: Good player.

Picks 6- 10

• Shane Conlan, LB, 8th overall, 1987. Result: Pro Bowl player.
  
• Timanga Biakabatuka, 8th overall, 1996. Result: near bust.

Picks 11 - 20

• Derrick Burroughs, DB, 14th overall, 1985. Result: Bust.
  
• Ronnie Harmon, RB, 16th overall, 1986. Result: Bust.
  
• Will Wolford, LT, 20th overall, 1968. Result: Pro Bowl player.
  
• James Williams, 16th overall, DB, 1990. Result: Bust.
  
• Dwight Freeny, 11th overall, 2002. Result: Pro Bowl player.

Picks 21 - 32

• Henry Jones, 26th overall, 1991. Result: a semi-decent player.
  
• John Fina, 27th overall, 1992. Result: a semi-decent player.
  
• Tyrone Poole, 22nd overall, 1995. Result: a decent player.
  
• Rob Morris, LB, 28th overall, 2000. Result: a decent player.
  
• Reggie Wayne, 30th overall, 2001. Result: a Pro Bowl player.
  
• Dallas Clark, 24th overall, 2003. Result: a very good player.
  
• Marlin Jackson, 29th overall, 2004. Result: bust
  
• Joseph Addai, 30th overall, 2006. Result: a solid player.
  
• Anthony Gonzalez, WR, 32nd overall, 2007. Result: bust

Bill Polian has picked in the top-5 on four separate occasions. In two cases (both picking first overall) he came away with some of the best players in NFL history: Bruce Smith and Peyton Manning. His worst top-5 pick was Kerry Collins (5th overall), and even he had a decent career.

 

Conversely, Polian has picked in the 21 - 32 range on nine separate occasions. His two best players from those nine picks were Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. He also acquired players like Joseph Addai, Henry Jones, John Fina, Tyrone Poole, and Rob Morris (in addition to some busts).

 

But I would argue that Polian acquired significantly more value from his top-5 picks (Bruce Smith, Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, and Kerry Collins) than he did from his picks in the 21 - 32 range. This, despite the fact that he had only four picks in the top-5, but had nine picks from 21 - 32.

 

Contrary to the misinformed opinions of some on these boards, the NFL's draft day value chart exists for a reason. A top-5 pick is more valuable than a pick later on in the first round. A good GM like Polian does not have some magic wand to make that fact go away. If Polian is picking 32nd overall, and if the players he wanted the most were taken before he had a chance to pick, he's going to have to content himself with his second- or third tier of choices. Over the long haul, that's going to hurt him, as the above drafting record clearly indicates.

Why do you waste all this time compiling this crap???

 

1) No one reads it, and

2) I already have Google.

Edited November 8, 2010 by The Senator

[Bill from NYC]

[*]Edgerrin James, 4th overall, 1999. Result: Good player.

 

James was a VERY good running back.

 

[*]Henry Jones, 26th overall, 1991. Result: a semi-decent player.

[*]John Fina, 27th overall, 1992. Result: a semi-decent player.

 

You give Fina and Jones the same rating??? Henry Jones was FAR better than semi-decent. He was a fine safety. If you think that Jones was semi-decent, how do you rate Whitner? Fina was OK for a season or two but was a stumblebum for the bulk of his career.

Jmo.

 

Mallett is going up against one tough SEC Team after another on most Saturdays, and besides a bad 4th Quarter vs. Alabama, he's REALLY come out looking good...There is no way Buddy Nix is going to look past what Mallett has done in the SEC this Year...No way...He was 10-15 for 96 yards and a TD vs. the #1 Team in the Country on the Road before he got knocked out of that Game...Mallett is 3-1 in Road Games at Georgia, Auburn, Texas A&M, and South Carolina this Year...That's not too bad...Bills Fans better pay attention because Ryan Mallett is definitely going to be in the mix for that 1st Pick assuming he keeps doing what he's been doing this year...

 

[JohnC]

I keep trying - so far to no avail - to tell the Luck-lovers that they've got it skewed - they seem to want the Bills to continue losing every game this season so we can draft Andrew Luck. The problem is, Andy's staying at Stanford next year.

 

Luck-lovers, what the Bills REALLY need to do is not only continue to lose every game this season (just to protect our draft interests on the extreme long shot that Luck comes out this year), but also lose every game next season - when Luck does finally graduate and enter the draft.

 

That way, we'll have the first pick and our choice of Andy Luck OR - even better yet - Darron Thomas, who will make Luck-lovers forget all about Andy and throw him on the giant scrap-pile of TSW QBs-du-jour!

 

I am a strong supporter of Andrew Luck. Is he coming out? I don't know and neither do you. Am I rooting for the Bills to lose? No. I'm very confident that the Bills are capable enough of losing based on their own disabilities. Even if Luck was more inclined to stay in school he would have to seriously consider coming out if he was the #1 ranked player. If his current HC (Harbaugh) leaves for another opportunity such as Michigan or the 49ers then I think Luck will very likely come out.

 

 

Although you constantly harrangue Bills fans for being disloyal and rooting against them (which for the most part isn't true) you should focus more of your energies on a very inept owner and ramshackle organization. The Bills are far away from being a relevant team not because of its very irritated fanbase but simply because the organization is very mediocre.

 

Even if the Bills get the first pick and are able to acquire the franchise qb they so much covet the Bills are still years away from being a serious team. The present roster will mostly have to be turned over in the next couple of years. It is a long haul and major endeavor to get out of the deep trench of mediocrity that this franchise is currently in.

[Ozymandius]

How great Clausen is isn't the point. The point is it would make no sense for them to draft a potential franchise QB two straight years. I would be stunned if they go QB with their first pick no matter who comes out of college.

Why would Carolina pass on Luck just because they used a second-rounder on a QB the previous season? Do you pass on a Jaguar just because you already own a Civic?

 

It's tough to get too concerned about this right now, though. A few things have to happen for it to even matter, starting with Luck leaving school.

[1B4IDie]

You're right - they should wait - they should only draft a 'potential franchise QB' every three years...like the Chargers!

You know they haven't drafted a QB since 2004 right?

And probably won't draft a QB until 2014.

[The Senator]

You know they haven't drafted a QB since 2004 right?

And probably won't draft a QB until 2014.

You're right - my bad - I guess, in their case, the third time (Leaf/Brees/Rivers) really was the charm!

[1B4IDie]

You're right - my bad - I guess, in their case, the third time (Leaf/Brees/Rivers) really was the charm!

 

we really need our second time to be a Charm

LOSSman\ Mallet or Luck

 

I don't think this franchise can take another wiff in the first round.

[The Senator]

we really need our second time to be a Charm

LOSSman\ Mallet or Luck

 

I don't think this franchise can take another wiff in the first round.

I don't think you need to worry - Nix & Co. will not screw up the draft, but we could still lose the Ryan Mallett prize (Luck's staying in school) to any # of teams - Carolina, SF, Dallas, even NE* (via the Raiders pick)!

[Orton's Arm]

James was a VERY good running back.

 

[*]Henry Jones, 26th overall, 1991. Result: a semi-decent player.

[*]John Fina, 27th overall, 1992. Result: a semi-decent player.

 

You give Fina and Jones the same rating??? Henry Jones was FAR better than semi-decent. He was a fine safety. If you think that Jones was semi-decent, how do you rate Whitner? Fina was OK for a season or two but was a stumblebum for the bulk of his career.

You're right: I probably underrated both Edgerrin James and Henry Jones. I agree with you about both Fina and Whitner. I remember a Bills official--I think it was Marv--mentioning that the Bills employed a service which rates the performance of the players on their roster. According to them, Fina was about the 25th best starting LT in the league. (I don't remember the exact rank.)

 

After adjusting the player rankings a bit, the central point of my earlier post remains. Bill Polian achieved more with his very early first round picks (Bruce Smith, Kerry Collins, Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James) than he did with picks later in the first (Henry Jones, John Fina, Tyrone Poole, Rob Morris, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Marlon Jackson, Joseph Addai, Anthony Gonzalez). Bill Polian had more than twice as many picks (nine) in the second category than in the first (four). Over the course of Bill Polian's career, a typical top-5 pick has proved more than twice as valuable as a pick in the lower part of the first round.

[drinkTHEkoolaid]

there is no guarantee that Luck will even declare

[jack_spikes]

I keep trying - so far to no avail - to tell the Luck-lovers that they've got it skewed - they seem to want the Bills to continue losing every game this season so we can draft Andrew Luck. The problem is, Andy's staying at Stanford next year.

 

Luck-lovers, what the Bills REALLY need to do is not only continue to lose every game this season (just to protect our draft interests on the extreme long shot that Luck comes out this year), but also lose every game next season - when Luck does finally graduate and enter the draft.

 

That way, we'll have the first pick and our choice of Andy Luck OR - even better yet - Darron Thomas, who will make Luck-lovers forget all about Andy and throw him on the giant scrap-pile of TSW QBs-du-jour!

Has Luck actually stated for the record whether or not he'll return to Stanford next year, or is that just your prognostication?