Bills #1 Pick Coming Down To...............

[pBills]

Here ya go.

 

http://www.gbnreport.com/picksbyteam.html

 

 

Thanks. I would be interested to see what OL would be available at 41 & 72?

[EastRochBillsfan]

What kind of evidence are you looking for? A tape-recorded conversation between Ralph and Marv directing Marv to draft Marshawn Lynch? There is a mountain of evidence that has amassed over the years, to the point where not too many people really dispute that it works that way. What crap are you sick of??

 

You're always saying it's Ralph. That is the crap i refer to. If there is such a mountain of evidence, surely you can find a qoute or an article to back this up. I'll make it easy on you, just give me ONE. From what I can tell, people just surmised this and then posters just give it a life of its own. Now, if you were talking Al Davis, I would agree with you. And with him, you could find plenty of proof. But what you are spewing as fact is not, it is purley conjecture.

[PromoTheRobot]

http://www.eastcoastsportsnews.com/2010Draftnews.html

 

Who you got TSW?

 

...or not.

 

PTR

[Bill from NYC]

The message isn't "don't draft a QB till after you have put together a great OL." It's "if you draft a QB, you have a much more immediate and urgent need for upgrading your OL."

 

Yes, but the post script reads that until you have a line, your quarterback will not be effective. The Bills have focused on defensive backs and small, sideshow acts, thus they are losing. They will continue to lose until they stop this idiocy.

 

The Bills as you know play in the elements. Teams need to fear coming to Buffalo rather than smirk. This will not happen until they decide to be a tough, physical football team. Using a first round pick to ruin another qb would sell tickets and please less knowledgable fans, but make no mistake, losing will continue to rule the day.

[gizmo6824]

t

Really?

 

I think it's a lot closer to being the equivalent of a lower-income person taking what little discretionary cash they have and investing it in an up-and-coming business venture, realizing fully well that they'll remain cash-strapped in the short-term while putting their long-term financial future at the forefront of their thinking. The strategy being that you can always go out and work more hours/do more odd jobs to make more short-term cash, but you can't go back in time and make the right investment.

 

With that thought in mind, what would be so wrong with drafting a QB at #9, provided the team spends, say, 4 other picks on OTs? Even if you're only right 25% of the time, you still get a quality starting OT and a young, talented QB.

After all, there are more good OTs currently playing in the NFL that were drafted after round 1 than there are QBs (I don't need to re-hash the #s for you, as we've had that discussion before).

 

Just my 1 cent.

I so agree with this. i've been seeing plenty of talent on the lines in the sec. and third rounds that could still play right away. if the talent is gone by the time we pick and you have to take a guy with upside, id wait till a later round. pick a guy that can give you a instant boost at a position. excited! cant wait till thurs.

[BEAST MODE BABY!]

Hopefully, the new regime will abandon this stupid mentality. When do we learn? Losman cost us a 1st, 2nd and a 5th, then they threw him in behind garbage. Rob Johnson cost us the #9 draft selection and a 4th, and he too was put on the field in front of a high scgool level offensive line. When Trent Edwards looked like he had a shot, they traded away his Left Tackle, and Drew Bledsoe was unable to produce playing behind similarly poor players.

 

If the Bills draft Spiller or Clausen, it will be the equivalent of spending most of your money on a diamond necklace, and then going for a weekly 3 hour stroll through Flint, Michigan.

 

I see what you're saying, but we actually drafted 2 good lineman last year. IF they go with Spiller or Clausen, I am pretty sure we draft and OL in round 2 or 3. And, if they draft Spiller, they may have an arrangement to trade Lynch to Seattle. WHo knows. We shall see. Call me silly, but I actually trust Nix and Gailey. In fact, I think Modrak (who used to be the only senior "football" guy in the room) paired with Nix is a pretty good combo. If they don't take an OL with the first pick, it means that they don't think they can get the value they want. I also won't be surprised to see us trade out of the #9 spot and take Jerry Hughes later in round 1.

 

We shall know on Thursday.

[H2o]

Really?

 

I think it's a lot closer to being the equivalent of a lower-income person taking what little discretionary cash they have and investing it in an up-and-coming business venture, realizing fully well that they'll remain cash-strapped in the short-term while putting their long-term financial future at the forefront of their thinking. The strategy being that you can always go out and work more hours/do more odd jobs to make more short-term cash, but you can't go back in time and make the right investment.

 

With that thought in mind, what would be so wrong with drafting a QB at #9, provided the team spends, say, 4 other picks on OTs? Even if you're only right 25% of the time, you still get a quality starting OT and a young, talented QB.

 

After all, there are more good OTs currently playing in the NFL that were drafted after round 1 than there are QBs (I don't need to re-hash the #s for you, as we've had that discussion before).

 

Just my 1 cent.

On point bro. Drafting an OT in the first does garauntee success. Is it a need? Yes. Can we get a quality guy AFTER the 1st round? Definitely. Give me Jimmy C. @ #9.

[Orton's Arm]

Hopefully, the new regime will abandon this stupid mentality. When do we learn? Losman cost us a 1st, 2nd and a 5th, then they threw him in behind garbage. Rob Johnson cost us the #9 draft selection and a 4th, and he too was put on the field in front of a high scgool level offensive line. When Trent Edwards looked like he had a shot, they traded away his Left Tackle, and Drew Bledsoe was unable to produce playing behind similarly poor players.

 

If the Bills draft Spiller or Clausen, it will be the equivalent of spending most of your money on a diamond necklace, and then going for a weekly 3 hour stroll through Flint, Michigan.

I agree that a good QB should play behind a good line. Steve Young achieved a lot more in San Francisco than he did in Tampa.

 

You also make a good point about all the draft picks the Bills have spent on QBs since Kelly hung up his cleats. It began with a second rounder on Todd Collins. Then--after Collins started looking iffy--a third on Billy Joe Hobart. Then after it became clear that neither of those guys was the answer, they used a first and a fourth on Rob Johnson. Almost immediately after giving up on Johnson, they traded away a first round pick to New England for Drew Bledsoe. Shortly after it became clear Bledsoe wasn't the answer, the Bills gave up a first, second, and fifth round pick for J.P. Losman. Then--with questions about Losman--they used a third round pick on Trent Edwards. Now that it appears Edwards is no longer the answer, they're shopping for a QB once again.

 

The Bills are in rebuilding mode. As far as I'm concerned, they need to do two things: 1) get the right quarterback, either in this draft or the next. 2) Put him in a position to succeed. That means seriously addressing the offensive line.

 

Achieving step 1 has several advantages. For one thing, it means that they'd stop the bleeding at the quarterback position, at least for a very long time to come. You don't see Indianapolis throwing lots of high draft picks at the QB position every year do you? They don't have to, because they have Manning. The Bills didn't have to draft a quarterback early while Kelly was in his prime. We need another guy like that. Not only to stop this team from bleeding draft picks, but also to provide a high level of play from the quarterback position for a long time to come.

 

The reason the QB position hasn't already been filled with some guy like that is because it's so hard to do. Take the 2004 draft. Eli Manning went first overall, Philip Rivers went fourth overall, and Ben Roethlisberger went 11th overall. By the time the Bills' 13th overall pick came around, only leftover quarterbacks were available. Half-measures such as Losman picks, Bledsoe trades, etc. are worse than useless. Not only do they burn through early draft picks, but they do little or nothing to upgrade the quarterback position. If we're spending draft picks on a quarterback at all it should be on the right quarterback that will be the successor to Kelly. Generally (but not always) quarterbacks like that go very early. If Clausen is in that category, we should take him now; knowing full well we may not get another chance at a guy like that for a long time to come.

 

Clearly, upgrading the offensive line is of absolutely critical importance. The Bills need to find starters at both tackle spots and at center. Until all three positions are addressed--ideally very early in the draft--anyone we put in the backfield will be playing behind a makeshift offensive line. Possibly, the Bills could trade back into the first round to take a left tackle. In next year's draft, they could take a NT in the first, a RT in the second, and an interior OL in the third. Those two drafts should leave us in a relatively solid position on both lines and at quarterback. We'd still have to find some players at WR, LB, and a few other positions though.

[billsfan89]

Its most likely a smoke screen to indicate that they would like to take them and see if someone wants to trade up with them to take the 2nd QB or the best RB of the draft. Don't believe anything you hear about the draft Nix is smart he knows who he wants but isn't going to tip his hand in any form.

 

Making other teams think you are willing to take certain players over others is just anther way to spread misinformation and get other teams to cough up picks to trade up so that a player you are really interested in falls to you.

 

Bulaga will be our pick mark it down. Cody or Cam Thomas will be our 2nd round pick and a OLB or WR will be picked in the mid 2nd thanks to a trade up involving our 4th and 3rd round picks.

[Spiderweb]

Hopefully, the new regime will abandon this stupid mentality. When do we learn? Losman cost us a 1st, 2nd and a 5th, then they threw him in behind garbage. Rob Johnson cost us the #9 draft selection and a 4th, and he too was put on the field in front of a high scgool level offensive line. When Trent Edwards looked like he had a shot, they traded away his Left Tackle, and Drew Bledsoe was unable to produce playing behind similarly poor players.

 

If the Bills draft Spiller or Clausen, it will be the equivalent of spending most of your money on a diamond necklace, and then going for a weekly 3 hour stroll through Flint, Michigan.

 

How true....maybe....

 

Worse yet, Spiller? Scat back? Wow, maybe he will have Darren Sproles sterling yards per carry averages (3.7) and Reggie Bush's sub four (his first three years of his now 4 year career).

 

Scat backs are far more a luxury than would be Clausen or Bradford.

 

(Bill, while I see the logic of your point, the Colts didn't have a great line in place when Manning was drafted, Troy Aikman was drafted by a Cowboy team that was only a shell of itself previously. Kelly was drafted by....well......you get the picture. What you say makes perfect sense, yet The Cowboys, Colts and the Bills were darned glad they picked these QB's.)

[Nostradamus]

Really?

 

I think it's a lot closer to being the equivalent of a lower-income person taking what little discretionary cash they have and investing it in an up-and-coming business venture, realizing fully well that they'll remain cash-strapped in the short-term while putting their long-term financial future at the forefront of their thinking. The strategy being that you can always go out and work more hours/do more odd jobs to make more short-term cash, but you can't go back in time and make the right investment.

 

With that thought in mind, what would be so wrong with drafting a QB at #9, provided the team spends, say, 4 other picks on OTs? Even if you're only right 25% of the time, you still get a quality starting OT and a young, talented QB.

 

After all, there are more good OTs currently playing in the NFL that were drafted after round 1 than there are QBs (I don't need to re-hash the #s for you, as we've had that discussion before).

 

Just my 1 cent.

 

What he's saying, and it's an interesting theory, is that one of the reasons Losman, Johnson, and Edwards never evolved is that playing behind such atrocious lines stunted their development and made them perpetually gun shy.

Not sure if I agree with it, but, many people would agree that Edwards was never the same after Wilson laid him out. Johnson, I remember was hammered repeatedly behind a poor line. Losman, I think was just jittery and without optimal circumstances was bound to fail in this league. Still, given our recent history, I think there is something to be said that putting a QB behind a porous line may have long term ramifications for both the quarterback and the franchise.

Still, it seems possible that when we pick at 9, there will be no one on the OL or DL worthy of that pick. If either Claussen or Spiller is available, there will be someone looking to move up to get them. Trading down where we can get an extra pick to help shore up both lines will be Nix's first move to restore credibility to the franchise. If we can get guys like Saffold and Cody in the late first/ second rounds, we should worry about QB next year.

Claussen may be a franchise QB. But, with the rest of our supporting cast at the moment, we may well turn him into the next first round bust

[The Senator]

Yes, but the post script reads that until you have a line, your quarterback will not be effective. The Bills have focused on defensive backs and small, sideshow acts, thus they are losing. They will continue to lose until they stop this idiocy.

 

The Bills as you know play in the elements. Teams need to fear coming to Buffalo rather than smirk. This will not happen until they decide to be a tough, physical football team. Using a first round pick to ruin another qb would sell tickets and please less knowledgable fans, but make no mistake, losing will continue to rule the day.

We need either a new QB, or for one of our QBs to step up big time. In order for any QB to succeed, we desperately need to build a top-notch -big, nasty, nail-spitting o-line by drafting guys like Bryan Bulaga and Brandon Carter. Un.til that happens, NO quarterback will succeed here

 

That's why logic dictates that the Bills, with the #9 overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft, will select Eric Berry, Safety, Tennessee.

[Trader]

Definitely neither one of those two.

 

 

This new regime cannot afford a first round failure. Whoever they draft it is not going to be a high risk pick. It will be a top offensive lineman or Spiller at pick 9. They will do their best to trade down.

[Chandler#81]

This new regime cannot afford a first round failure. Whoever they draft it is not going to be a high risk pick. It will be a top offensive lineman or Spiller at pick 9. They will do their best to trade down.

 

 

^This.

 

Spiller is a thriller! But he may have to wait a year to see the secondary..

[JohnC]

Hopefully, the new regime will abandon this stupid mentality. When do we learn? Losman cost us a 1st, 2nd and a 5th, then they threw him in behind garbage. Rob Johnson cost us the #9 draft selection and a 4th, and he too was put on the field in front of a high scgool level offensive line. When Trent Edwards looked like he had a shot, they traded away his Left Tackle, and Drew Bledsoe was unable to produce playing behind similarly poor players.

 

If the Bills draft Spiller or Clausen, it will be the equivalent of spending most of your money on a diamond necklace, and then going for a weekly 3 hour stroll through Flint, Michigan.

 

The issue with Losman has little to do with what we gave up for him. The real issue was that he was not a good qb. The measurable were there but he didn't have a head for the game, the most important element for success for a NFL qb. You can also use JaMarcus Russel as another example that having a cannon arm and a hollow head are a good indicator of failure for any qb. Rob Johnson is another example of this lame organization making a rash decision on a qb who showed some flashes with his short starting stint with Jacksonville. Again, as with Losman, this inept organization was seduced with the physical skills and were betrayed by his inability to exhibit good judgment on the field.

 

Getting a franchise qb prospect (Clausen) doesn't mean that you still can't build the lines. Who is to say that maybe a second round selection such as Saffold couldn't play as well as a first round pick? The Bills had LT Peters under contract. He was traded for a Woods, a guard. How dumb was that? Jason Peters was a free agent TE who wasn't even drafted.

 

The Bills haven't had a credible OL since the Polian days. That is disgraceful. The Bills haven't had a credible franchise qb since the retirement of Kelly. That is disgraceful. My view is that the front office has to evaluate the prospects and then take the best players. This is not a one year reconstruction job. If the front office believes that Clausen is rated higher than a LT left on the board then take him. If the Bills believe that a LT or any other player is rated higher than a qb left on the board then take the highest rated player.

 

The Bills have so many holes that their drafting strategy should be very simple. Draft the best players without concern about positions (except DBs) and upgrade your roster in general. The success and failure of any draft isn't all about the first round pick. If an organization knows what it is doing a lot of good lower profiled players can be acquired with lower round picks.

[Bill from NYC]

The issue with Losman has little to do with what we gave up for him. The real issue was that he was not a good qb. The measurable were there but he didn't have a head for the game, the most important element for success for a NFL qb. You can also use JaMarcus Russel as another example that having a cannon arm and a hollow head are a good indicator of failure for any qb. Rob Johnson is another example of this lame organization making a rash decision on a qb who showed some flashes with his short starting stint with Jacksonville. Again, as with Losman, this inept organization was seduced with the physical skills and were betrayed by his inability to exhibit good judgment on the field.

 

Getting a franchise qb prospect (Clausen) doesn't mean that you still can't build the lines. Who is to say that maybe a second round selection such as Saffold couldn't play as well as a first round pick? The Bills had LT Peters under contract. He was traded for a Woods, a guard. How dumb was that? Jason Peters was a free agent TE who wasn't even drafted.

 

The Bills haven't had a credible OL since the Polian days. That is disgraceful. The Bills haven't had a credible franchise qb since the retirement of Kelly. That is disgraceful. My view is that the front office has to evaluate the prospects and then take the best players. This is not a one year reconstruction job. If the front office believes that Clausen is rated higher than a LT left on the board then take him. If the Bills believe that a LT or any other player is rated higher than a qb left on the board then take the highest rated player.

 

The Bills have so many holes that their drafting strategy should be very simple. Draft the best players without concern about positions (except DBs) and upgrade your roster in general. The success and failure of any draft isn't all about the first round pick. If an organization knows what it is doing a lot of good lower profiled players can be acquired with lower round picks.

 

Thank you for a very good and well thought post.

 

I do see your point and I agree with most of it. One thing I tend to harp on is the cold weather factor. In order for the Bills to be even respectable, they have to be better on the lines because passing is often less of a factor than it is for dome, or warm weather teams. In this sense, better blocking would have an immediate impact.

 

Look at the jets if you will. Right now I view them as the team to beat in the NFL (this won't go over well I'm sure). They have a fantastic OL and a good defense. All they really need from Sanchez is for him to be somewhat above average, which imo is what he will be. John Elway he is not.

They also have a coach who is aggressive, unlike Jauron and his "play not to lose" mentality.

 

I suppose there is no one correct answer wrt this debate, but consider me shell shocked from the likes of first round picks such as McKelvin, Lynch, probably Mabin, and of course Lil' Donte.

[JohnC]

Thank you for a very good and well thought post.

 

I do see your point and I agree with most of it. One thing I tend to harp on is the cold weather factor. In order for the Bills to be even respectable, they have to be better on the lines because passing is often less of a factor than it is for dome, or warm weather teams. In this sense, better blocking would have an immediate impact.

 

Look at the jets if you will. Right now I view them as the team to beat in the NFL (this won't go over well I'm sure). They have a fantastic OL and a good defense. All they really need from Sanchez is for him to be somewhat above average, which imo is what he will be. John Elway he is not.

They also have a coach who is aggressive, unlike Jauron and his "play not to lose" mentality.

 

I suppose there is no one correct answer wrt this debate, but consider me shell shocked from the likes of first round picks such as McKelvin, Lynch, probably Mabin, and of course Lil' Donte.

 

You make an excellent point with respect to Sanchez. No one doubts that he struggled in his rookie year, as almost all rookie qbs do. Stafford of the Lions also had his struggles. That position more than any other position is about the growth process. It takes time to develop and get to the point where you can just play and be effective. The coaching staff asked Sanchez to play at a very rudimentary level because that is the only level most rookie qbs are capable of playing at. It is like learning a language. Learning even by immersion is going to take time to get fluent.

 

The point I'm making here is that with respect to the qb position it is better identifying your young franchise qb sooner rather than later because the learning process has to start and be struggled with over time. Getting Clausen, who most scouts concede is the most NFL ready qb, would be an excellent prospect for us.

 

As you have already stated there is no one way to build a successful team. Parcells, Polian, Reid, Ozzie Newsome have different roster building philosophies. There are some unifying aspects to their varied approaches. Each approach has a coherency to it. Compare it to the mismash Bills' approach, one step forward, and then two steps back. But in general all successful teams draft players according to the way they rank their board and they don't reach for need.

[KOKBILLS]

If the Bills draft Spiller or Clausen, it will be the equivalent of spending most of your money on a diamond necklace, and then going for a weekly 3 hour stroll through Flint, Michigan.

 

100% agree on Spiller Bill...No question you're right about that!

 

But I think Clausen is another story completely IF The Bills are sold on the fact that the Kid is the real deal...Cause if you're going to gamble a bit in the Top 10 it's better to do so with a QB than any other position...I'd rather see them Draft a Defensive Front 7 Player or an OT at #9...But if they take Clausen I totally understand...This Team can ill-afford to pass on a Franchise QB...Whether or not Clausen is a Franchise QB is up to Nix and Modrak to determine...

 

I'll just add this...Should The Bills pass on Clausen and should he go on to great success in the NFL well...The Bills Brass can say all they want about there being no pressure with that decision...In actuality there is a TON of pressure with that decision...Just a ton of pressure...Right now it may seem like a longshot for Clausen to be that good...But there are those who believe he is...Just saying...

[JohnC]

100% agree on Spiller Bill...No question you're right about that!

 

But I think Clausen is another story completely IF The Bills are sold on the fact that the Kid is the real deal...Cause if you're going to gamble a bit in the Top 10 it's better to do so with a QB than any other position...I'd rather see them Draft a Defensive Front 7 Player or an OT at #9...But if they take Clausen I totally understand...This Team can ill-afford to pass on a Franchise QB...Whether or not Clausen is a Franchise QB is up to Nix and Modrak to determine...

 

I'll just add this...Should The Bills pass on Clausen and should he go on to great success in the NFL well...The Bills Brass can say all they want about there being no pressure with that decision...In actuality there is a TON of pressure with that decision...Just a ton of pressure...Right now it may seem like a longshot for Clausen to be that good...But there are those who believe he is...Just saying...

 

You hit the issue right on the head with the front office's assessment of Clausen. Do they believe that he is a franchise qb? If they do then it is not a very difficult choice to select him. If they have some serious reservations about him then take another player who they rank higher and are more confident in.

 

A lot of people get queasy about the possibility of making a mistake on a high qb selection. I don't understand that line of reasoning. There are a lot of OTs who were drafted very early in the draft and failed miserably. There are a lot of receivers who get drafted very early and fail miserably. There are a lot of DBs that get drafted very early and fail miserably. There are a lot of DLs who get drafted very early and fail miserably. etc

 

If Buddy Nix has a conviction on Clausen then take him. If not then go on to the next prospect. You have to trust your judgment in assessing players and not be afraid to make a mistake. I remember in last year's draft the Patriots took OT Volmer with their second round pick. Kiper at that time stated that he rated him as a fourth round caliber of player. He then qualified his opinion by stating that the Patriots have a history of drafting well and knowing the type of player who will play well in their system. The end result is that Volmer started at RT and played very well for them. The point I'm making is that the organization has to trust their judgment and then go with it.

[BB2004]

After much thought, I have to agree with Bill. Understand, I am a huge Clausen fan and definitelty a Spiller fan. But reality has to be faced. We are a Northeast team that plays in the wind and the cold. That should be to the Bills advantage. Take a look at Brohm's first series against the Falcon's to get a snapshot of waht Clausen would be doing for Buffalo. Backpedaling and running for his life. Build the line now.

 

I agree. Marv Levy tried to get some OL in here when he was the general manager and Nix needs to think about doing the same thing. We have to build a strong offensive line.