finn

Yeah, and the Holocaust never happened, the Moon walk was faked, Sandy Hook was phony and 9/11 was a Jewish conspiracy. Occam's razor, buddy.

I'm sure I'll be an outlier: Baltimore: W Pittsburgh: W New England: W NY Jets: L

I really doubt there's a conspiracy on the ref level, but there might as well be, because the bias is real and has a real, measurable impact on games. You can find plenty of good books on the subject. Scorecasting by Jon Wortheim, for instance. He shows the statistical evidence of bias against the visiting team in several sports, for instance, as well as other kinds of bias, like against Jeremy Lin of the Knicks. He's Korean so can't be good. So, yeah, poor Tommy is brushed in the pocket and the limbic brain of the ref panics thinking of the consequences that'll ensue if he doesn't protect this god-like figure whose autograph he would love to have. The NFL could make these weekly controversies go away by hiring refs full time and providing them with better training, including bias training. If you're looking for a conspiracy, that's where you're more likely to find it: the owners are perfectly happy to tip the scales in favor of famous players and popular teams whose winning makes them rich. so they're not likely to take these steps.

Yeah, not that it matters objectively, since this is a new team, but doesn't it seem that every time the Bills have been featured on national TV since the Kelly teams they've bombed? I guess there was that one MNF game against the Pats* they lost on the last play.... Still, as a fan, I've learned to keep my expectations low in games where everyone in the football world is paying attention to how good the Bills are.

This game comes at a perfect time for the Bills. If it came early in the season I think they would have been blown out. Now, they've built up confidence, have bonded as a team and are starting to forge an identity on offense. All those wins really helped; in that sense the "soft" schedule we hear about ad nauseum was perfect the Bills. Move these tough games earlier and the easy ones later and we might be looking at a team with less confidence, less chemistry. They're like a boxer who's been brought along just right, never over-matched. Incidentally, I think the Pats* would lose this game (against the Cowboys in Dallas I mean), even with the refs helping out at key moments. They're declining fast, at least on offense, and the Bills are ascending. Still not sure the Bills will win today, but I think it could be a good game: an excellent offense against an excellent defense and an improving offense against an inconsistent defense. Anything could happen.

Singletary reminds me more of Thurman Thomas. Same low center of gravity, shiftiness, patience, and knack for repositioning his feet under his body. Neither had/have breakaway speed, both adept catching the ball, although Thurman probably was better in that respect. He was also three inches taller. Same weight, though. The coaches seem concerned Singletary can't handle a full load, but he had a million carries in college, and he has plenty of weight on that short body. Tough to tackle. A promising back.

McDermott tells him to play fearlessly and Daboll goes up into the booth. Not hard to suspect a connection between the two, especially (as another poster pointed out) how on the sideline Daboll gets into his face after every mistake. Does anyone respond to that? Nice to vent your emotions but not at the expense of a guy who needs to know why he made the mistake and get ready for the next series. I wonder how Daboll would do if McDermott got in his face, publicly, after he makes a bone-headed mistake.

Nice turn of phrase. Hank Stram, circa 1970!

When it rains it pours. RIP Cleveland's season.

Right. To many players, the opposite of "play fearless[ly]" is not "hesitate" and "overthink" but "play with discipline." As far as I can see, the only one who needs to hear the "fearless" message is Allen. Daboll, Mr. "Let's throw downfield into double coverage to a slot receiver on third and short" and "Let's throw it 41 times" is already fearless enough, albeit in the worst sense. By the way, all of us who think Allen does need to play with less fear need to be ready to tolerate the downside that will come from the upside. But I'll take the Allen of late last season, an exciting player who's just as capable of an incredible play as an interception, over a neutered, ineffective game manager who frankly is boring to watch. Let him shine and mess up. Everyone else (except Haushka and Daboll), stay the course.

Carwell Gardner.

I think Allen deserves some slack. The Browns blitzed a lot and his Ford and Dawkins weren't holding up very well. That's hard on any QB, much less a second-year player. "Guys were getting open" doesn't mean much when he has to decide where to go before they do get open. I think Cover 1 pointed out that his hot reads might have been too slow developing; if so, that's on Daboll. Also, he's not getting any credit for scoring two TDs on his own, nor for his scrambles. His receivers aren't helping him much. Knox and Brown both dropped passes (again), and McKenzie, not Allen, might not have been at fault for that missed long pass. And the play calling. I don't think it's as bad as others have said, but let's say it wasn't brilliant. I'm not making excuses for him, just providing balance to the legitimate criticisms he's receiving. Someone pointed out that Bills fans are jealous of Lamar Jackson and it's affecting their judgment of Allen, and I think that's right. People forget he's a development project, not a win-now guy like Jackson and, supposedly, Mayfield. Jim Kelly had two years in the USFL before he joined the Bills, and while he was arguably better than Allen is now, he wasn't Lamar Jackson or Dan Marino in 1986. He needed time, and so does Allen.

"Look you fans just don't get it. I keep telling you, 'Trust the process," but you don't. Do I have to spell it out for you? Read my lips: We're in the exact middle of a five-year plan. The playoffs were supposed to be no more than an outside possibility this year, but you act like we're a bunch of losers because we lost three games, two of them very close. What do you want, a perfect season? Blowouts every week? Beane and I haven't even had time to put in all the pieces yet, much less having them gel. Nice fans, booing us at home. Real loyal. And this forum! Haushka makes that kick and suddenly Allen is a clutch QB, the defense is historic, Daboll was wise to not force the run, and I'm candidate for Coach of the Year. But he misses it and suddenly Allen is a bust, Daboll an idiot, and I'm over my head. Give me a break. It must feel good to boast about us when we win and trash us when we lose, hiding behind your avatars, but at least don't believe, as some of you seem to, that you know what you're talking about or your opinion is worth squat. Are any of you loyal, not just thrilled when we win but behind us when we lose, patient while we rebuild this thing and just enjoying the ride?"

Yeah, but you stay with it. The Bills shut down Chubb on a few downs, but the Browns stuck with him. Five carries in an entire half does not show patience--or intelligence, not when you're going against a poor run defense with an excellent back and opt instead for a QB with one receiver going against an excellent pass defense. Boggles the mind.

Some perspective: the Bills weren't supposed to be 7-2, not with the weaknesses talked about here. Mayfield had Beckham and Landry to throw to. Allen had who else besides Brown? Give him one or two more players and another year of development, and an real 7-2 record will be plausible. Can't help but carp, though: Daboll. What the heck. Eight carries for one of the best players on the offense--someone doing great in the game. It's like his ego is attached to passing yards.

Does he remind anyone else of Thurman Thomas? Same low center of gravity, same shiftiness, similar frame...

Talking about fitting reality into a preconceived narrative.... He could be right, but I prefer analysts who let the evidence shape the conclusions, not the other way around.

Thanks for another astute post. As you pointed out, the game was an even match until the fumble. I think that turnover, deep in the Bills end after the defense had been playing its guts out, was a bridge too far for the defense. Yes, the coaches had no answer for the screens and QB scrambles, but my guess is that the Bills would have shut down many of those third downs if the game was still very close or the Bills had the lead. Emotion plays a critical role in football. It's hard to blame the players, either. There's no equivalent on the other side of the ball to the sense of betrayal and "WTF, man?!" when the offense turns the ball over, especially after a defensive stand and especially deep in one's own zone. It's different if the offense has bailed out the defense in the past, had their back when things the defense played poorly. But that hasn't happened this season.

I was disappointed and frustrated, too, but I was also impressed by some things the Bills did yesterday. Allen played under control most of the time and kept his eyes downfield. The OL usually gave him enough time to make throws, and he moved well in the pocket to evade the rush. Gore played really well, again. Duke Williams had a pair of nice blocks on the Singletary touchdown. Brown came to play, as always, and Singletary's TD run showed what he can do if Daboll ever decides to give him the ball. Special teams smothered the trick play. The defense contained the Eagles most of the first half and had good momentum until the lost fumble. In short, it wasn't all bad, not by a long shot. The Bills lost games like this even in the Super Bowl years.

Right. Ford could still turn out to be a monster, especially at guard. I do liked Duke a lot, too. He's ferocious and hungry,

I'm not usually a big fan of hindsight drafting, and I think Beane et all have done a great job overall drafting high-character, high-motor guys. But I do think they might have whiffed when they drafted Cody Ford instead of WR DK Metcalf in the second round last year. It's too early to be sure, and Ford could eventually become a monster, but we really could use a big, fast receiver like Metcalf, and we already had a nicely developing guard in Wyatt Teller. (Yes, they were/are hoping Ford will be RT, but his feet seem just too slow for that position.) I'll take a whiff in the second for a hit in virtually every other draft spot, but, let's face it, they seem to have blown it in the second. Do you agree?

Funny choice of quarterback for a ball-control offense. I wonder if the Bills would start Bates if they think he's better than Ford. You look foolish starting a guy who was an UDFA over your high-second round pick, that's the thing. They did it by promoting Duke over Zay Jones, but not until it was a glaringly obvious move.

The Patriots defense reminded me of Belichick's scheme against the Bills in the first Super Bowl. He shut down the pass and dared the Bills to run. When they did, Thurman scorched them, much like Gore did yesterday. But Kelly kept trying to throw into heavy coverage, much like Allen yesterday. The difference is that Kelly was Kelly and Allen is Allen. My point is that Daboll should have recognized that he was in a defensive battle and gone conservative: runs and short throws to the RBs and TEs. Not to take Allen off the hook. But even then you could say it's on Daboll. When he saw Allen was off, he could have done worse than simply run every single down, every one, even at the cost of three and out.

This will keep you on the fence (or "dense" ?), but it's not as simple as "he's got to learn not to play hero ball," as people keep saying. His hero ball successes are primarily why he generates so much excitement. Fans WANT him to hold on to the ball for five seconds, sidestep three defenders and heave the ball across his body and off his back foot--IF it leads to a TD or touchdown. They eat it up, call him "amazing" and "athletic." No one says then, "He's got to stop playing hero ball" then, even though it's exactly the type of stupid play we're lamenting today, with less luck involved. He might learn to play more conservatively and take the big shots only when they're smart, but his fans aren't helping him by ecstatically cheering him when they're not smart.

To be fair to Josh, he holds on to the ball too long and forces throws not to be a hero but because he thinks it will help his team. He's wicked competitive, and he has pulled off absurd throws in similar situations--and receives enormous praise for them. "Learning to be patient" means throwing the ball away even when he knows he can make the play--just in a small percentage of cases. I don't think most of us realize how hard the equation is: Do I chuck it and maybe get that huge shot of dopamine and have 60k people going wild? Or do I throw it away? I'm hoping letting down his teammates so badly will finally do the trick. If he had been even mediocre they would have won.