Cash

He won't be. Being able to change direction is very important for a WR. He's not a top 10 player in this draft, therefore he can't be BPA at #9.

Pretty cool that BPA last year just happened to be the 2 positions at which they were desperate for starters. The Bills are absolutely “eyeing” some number of players. Which ones? I have no idea! But I have a fairly decent idea of the positions. Not as good as last year, when the QBs heading into the draft were Peterman & McCarron, and the MLBs were... no one? But where things stand now, the Bills have signed 4 OL to potentially starting contracts - at least high end backup $$. Also signed 2 WRs for too much to justify not playing major roles. But no DL to replace Kyle Williams, and our interior/run D was a weakness last year to begin with. Add in that we currently only have 2 TEs on the roster, and the best one is maybe around Clay’s level from 2-3 years ago, and I think that 2 of DT, DE, and TE will be their first 2 picks. Probably DL round 1, TE round 2, with maybe a small trade up for the TE a la Zay Jonesa couple years ago.

Wow! Surprised he got that much less than Morse. I think I'd rather have Morse, but what do I know? Still don't particularly think we overpaid, just think the Panthers got a bargain.

DL yes, but I disagree on OL. The Bills have signed a C, a C/G, and an LT/RT in free agency. I think that Dawkins stays at LT, Nsekhe starts at RT, Morse at C, and Long at one of the G spots. And between guys returning from last year and dumpster-dive free agents, the Bills can probably find a "good enough" starter at the last G spot. In any case, I don't think there's any guards rated high enough to take in the top 10 this year? I think it's looking like either premier DL - either edge or interior rusher - or trade down. TE is the wildcard, but I think (hope) that the Bills would only go TE in the first after a trade down. Greedy Williams would be the other wildcard if he's there. Anything else would surprise me.

I will be surprised/disappointed if the Bills don't draft a TE in the first 3 rounds. There's still only 2 on the roster, and the money they gave to Kroft probably precludes another significant FA at the position. (I do think they'll sign at least 1 more FA, but it'll be more of a 1 year deal close to the vet minimum.) I'd be okay with a TE at #9, although I don't think there's any worth the pick this year. I'd be thrilled with one of Hockenson/Irv Smith/Fant either at #40 or in the 1st after a trade down.

I like this signing! He's old, but legit good. Should hopefully be a solid starter for at least next year.

Agreed. Last year was a great time to sign Brown: production >> price. This year, not so much. I think we're getting a below-average WR for average $$. I wasn't on the Antonio Brown bandwagon, but I'd rather have an elite guy like him for $18mil/year than 2 John Brown types. We'll see, hopefully I'm wrong.

To clarify, I'm talking about what the Bills SHOULD do, not necessarily what they ARE doing. Last year's team was a loooooong way away from being a contender. More than a full offseason away, in my opinion.

Given how it turned out, not much. (And I haven't seen any credible speculation about what the trade compensation was yet.) There's probably a price point at which AB would've committed to playing for the Bills next year. There certainly was for Shady when we traded for him - he was very upset by that trade until we gave him a new deal, then it was all smiles. If the Bills had gone all-out to get Brown regardless of cost, that would concern me. The Bills are at LEAST a year away from being a "win-now" team. I certainly don't mind the team pursuing one of the top players (ever) at a position of need, but there's a point at which the price is no longer worth it.

What if we draft the next Samaje Perine or Jeremy McNichols?

This is my biggest issue. Our run D was still pretty bad last year. I don’t know if it was because of everyone around Star and he’s blameless, but that seems dubious. Seems more likely that teams run like crazy on us for the >50% of plays when he’s out. I don’t have any major problems with the signing, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it be a Clay-type contract in a couple years.

I think the poll is setting the bar a little too high, honestly. If we're a playoff contender next year (not necessarily a Super Bowl contender), I would consider that a success. It's hard for me to define playoff contender, but I think it's basically a team that *should* make the playoffs, even if it doesn't. If we have the point differential of a 10-6 team, but get a bunch of unlucky breaks and go 9-7 or 8-8, I might still be happy (but disappointed) with the season. If we go 10-6 and miss out on the playoffs via tiebreakers, that'll suck, but the season will still be a success. If we have a 2017-like season, where we probably should've gone 7-9, but lucked into a 9-7 record and crazy playoff tiebreakers, I'll be happy, but it won't bode as well for 2020 as the above scenarios.

Great write up as always! Fully agree with you on Shady - I think he’s still got it, and the only way it makes sense to get rid of him is if the offense just doesn’t want to get RBs in space. (But if that’s the case, then we probably need a new offense anyway.) I was looking forward to your thoughts on Edmunds this game. You’ve been hard on him all year, but he was a monster yesterday. I’ve felt about Edmunds all year about the same way you’ve felt about Allen. Maybe I’m just wearing rose-colored glasses, but I just chalk up all his mistakes to being a rookie, and a 20 year old rookie learning a new position at that. I think he’s going to be absolutely amazing by 2020, and maybe even as soon as next year. As for Allen, I’m MUCH more encouraged now than I was either when he was drafted, or during his pre-injury stretch. Still plenty of mistakes, but there’s a fair amount of good things too. And it was nice to see him have a better game after a couple weeks of playing worse. Obviously a young player can’t literally perform better every game - ups and downs happen even while you’re improving - but it’s nice to end the season with one of his better performances. And in terms of fantasy stats, definitely his best.

Agree with all of this. Especially right now, when we (are about to) have tons of cap room and tons of holes to fill. I'm also against cutting guys to save cap right now. If (Clay) a player (Clay) isn't helping the team (Clay), that's one thing, but if he's good but just not worth the money? Keep him!

It's looking pretty unlikely right now, but I'd love to beat Miami to knock them out of the playoffs. I hope they at least have something to play for in week 17, even if the other games don't wind up going their way. In the even less likely scenario that the Bills & Jets both beat the Patriots, I would be able to live with a loss to the Dolphins to cost the Patriots the division. I'd still be rooting for a win, but just... not as hard as normally.

No. Everyone’s excited because the old incompetent boss is gone. Eventually the new incompetent boss will mess things up.

Have to admit, I was disappointed by this one, Spags. Not your best. Don’t get down though. You’ll do better next time!

Agreed. I listened to Buscaglia & Fairburn’s podcast, and they wouldn’t shut up about the back shoulder throw to Zay on that play. Yes, it was an Aaron Rodgers type throw, but: 1. It was a very tough catch, and 2. He had a man underneath who could’ve easily picked up the first AND gotten out of bounds #1 isn’t really a problem in and of itself, but on 3rd and 11 there, the checkdown was the way better option. A rookie is going to make mistakes, and that was one of them. Overall pretty happy with how Allen played though. Even though we’re no longer “in the hunt”, I’m pretty excited to watch him play down the stretch.

Why does everything need to be polarized one way or another? Why can’t it be both? My take: nice play by Allen to try to get it there on the run. Not actually a good pass, but maybe could’ve been caught. Would’ve been a great catch if made, but it didn’t happen. It was like a foot away from being a TD. Does that need to be only one person’s 100% fault, or can it be that we just came up a little short?

Agreed! I’m back in on Zay.

I’d keep Shady for sure, and Derek Anderson as #3 for mentorship. I’d only cut Clay if I thought there were better options. I think a great deal of this roster is expendable.

Not a big difference to me. In the NFL, both QB and receiver need to read/understand the defense on a given play and potentially adjust as a result. Zay was on the opposite end of that last year against Carolina when TT threw it where he should have gone instead of where the route was called to. For those of you who think Zay should’ve sat against the coverage, consider that doing so would’ve cost him his first TD. Not exactly apples to apples, but still the same general idea. Having said that, I thought it was a pretty good game overall for Allen. More misfires this week than last week, but he generally looked good. This info about the missed TD does make me feel a little better about it - more of a rookie mistake than a terrible throw. The other two missed TDs (bomb to Foster plus game-ender to Clay) were also not egregious, and arguably at least partially on the receivers. I’m much more encouraged about Allen now than I was after the Vikings game. Yeah, all else aside, it was a bad throw by virtue of this fact alone. A rookie mistake, but not an unforgivable one.

I really only watch Bills games with regularity, so I’ll only weigh in on Allen. I’m very encouraged by what I’ve seen since he came back. I thought he was better against the Jags than today, but still saw a lot better today than I saw earlier this year. The future may just be bright!

Not seeing it, at least not yet. I'm much less discouraged about the offense after last week, but it's still only 1 game, and our hopefully-franchise QB wasn't a part of it. Of the players you listed, all but Teller are on D, and Teller's only played one full game. He's off to a nice start, but not exactly someone who can be counted on. For us to be contenders next year, we'll need a drastic step up at the QB position at a minimum. I haven't seen anything (yet?) that suggests we'll get that next year.

I largely agree with the OP. The only time I think it might ever be beneficial to actually tank would be if a can't-miss QB prospect is going to be available, and you need a QB. Think Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning as seniors, but keep in mind that people advocated tanking for them the previous years, hoping that they'd come out as juniors*. That would've been dumb. (Hi, Jets!) I also wouldn't tank just because you need a QB and it's easier to get one at the top - like last year, for example. Otherwise, I'd rather have something positive to build on, as well as some degree of confidence that the team already has coaches and players that are worth keeping around. Tanking makes more sense in the NBA, where you usually only play 8-9 players a game, but even there, it doesn't generally work very well. Ask the Kings or Suns how quick high picks can take you back to the playoffs. *Yes, I know Luck came out as a redshirt junior, but in the real world, that was his senior year and he graduated from Stanford that year. He could've enrolled in grad school, but never gave any indications that he would, so I felt at the time that the risk of him not declaring for the draft was very low.