BillsVet

I look at defense from the standpoint of impact plays: INTs, forced fumbles, and sacks. You can always debate which events on defense are most important, but swinging the momentum typically comes on defense with those results. And, it gets the ball into your offense's hands more to score points. Buffalo didn't lose much talent from their 2019 defense, yet they added 4 DL in the draft and UFA. To me, that's a lot of resources put into a unit that had already contributed to being 2nd in points allowed. I don't think the loss of Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson really hurts them significantly. I also recognize they needed to be replaced, and Epenesa probably fits into the role of base 40 front end. Still, is that investment likely to contribute to more wins against a more difficult 2020 schedule? That question will be answered in short order. In the interim, per Spotrac, Buffalo is investing about 23% of their current cap dollars in the DL. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/breakdown/ Perhaps they have the flexibility to continue that trend when Tre White, Dawkins, Milano, and Allen come up for contracts in 2020-21 although it's hard to tell because the cap is very flexible. The point remains that player investment on defense should be centered on who provides impact plays and of course, on the offense. That to me is what makes good teams excellent and improves the W-L record.

Buffalo's DL depth largely is geared toward stopping the run and less so rushing the passer. Of those players on the roster, Hughes, Oliver, (EDIT: Addison) and perhaps Murphy are the guys who might regularly get to the QB. The rest are either unproven or not pass rushers. The key to good defense now is getting impact plays like sacks, INT's and fumble recoveries, not being strong against the run. Buffalo collected 14 INTs, 9 fumble recoveries, and 44 sacks which combined ranked 11th in the NFL.

My friend is a Vikings fan, so I hear all about the concerns he has with Zimmer trying to pair a strong defense with a run first offense. Doesn't help that Cousins is limited in some respects. Tennessee, from a team design standpoint, is still an outlier given their lack of results of multiple seasons. The point being, you're not riding Derrick Henry to playoff glory year after year the way a franchise QB that leading an ultra-productive offense can. Teams that try to balance out offense and defense end up running behind Kansas City in the AFC. Tennessee had a good defense and they got 35 hung on them in the AFCCG. San Francisco's defense broke down in the SB when they needed it most, albeit combined with an ineffective and uber-conservative offense late. I know many here want to latch onto the McDermott way, but if he doesn't begin prioritizing offensive production over his precious defense, Buffalo is topping out at a 5/6 seed or losing in the divisional round. Buffalo has to figure out how to compete with the AFC's best if they're going to advance and win the SB. That means beating KC.

The walk to the parking lot after that game was surreal. All the miscues, and bad coaching that took place near the end of that game was unbelievable. That final drive, Dallas then missing the 2 point conversion, getting the onside kick, and then...how do you let Patrick Crayton make the catch along the sideline to set up that FG? The DBs were off those receivers and gave them the sideline catch. What a mess. Freaking Dick Jauron. No way am I watching that game.

Buffalo scored 21 or more points just 6 times out of 17 games with five of those performances coming against teams that drafted in the top 10. I want to see the HC get away from the keep-it-close mentality that depends on the defense showing up every week. To win 10 or more games against this year's opponents it's going to take some weeks where Buffalo puts up 30. And that might mean throwing it 40 times. Teams that want to be strong defensively and conservative on offense have a ceiling that is around a 5 or 6 seed. It's going to take the HC changing his perspective and using newly acquired (Diggs) or hopefully improved weapons (Allen, Singletary, Knox) in the passing game.

In fairness, Beane hasn't had any team draftees up for an extension yet. Tre White figures to cash in, but he'll be the first. I disagree about receivers needing 2-3 years in the NFL to develop. Plenty of rookies, even those in the 2nd, 3rd and even later rounds have produced out of the gate. 7 receivers after the 50th pick last year recorded more than 500 yards receiving and that was considered a weak class. This year's class likely has to develop without a full off-season, but features a LOT more talent. I've read through coverage of Buffalo's two WR picks, Davis (4th) and Hodgins (6th). Ultimately, they are the bigger framed types McD seems to have clamored for last season. They're looking for a possession type and don't really have anyone on the roster resembling that aside from Duke Williams.

No, neither the HC or GM will go anywhere and I did not imply that. Yet, I am extremely confident McBeane didn't do all this work to go 9-7 and hope for a 5 or 6 seed Psychologically speaking, I think most people are afraid to have expectations for fear they will not be realized. It's OK to expect big things. It's OK to demand them from your favorite sports team and one is not less of a fan for doing so. For all the glowing reviews McBeane have received each off-season, isn't it logical to expect to see excellence by year 4? You can't applaud the personnel moves and then set the bar low for the coming season. It's a non-sequitur.

Four off-seasons into this regime has helped illustrate who they are and which priorities they have in assembling a roster. Much of the heavy lifting has been completed such as identifying, maneuvering, and then acquiring the QB. Or, building the defense into a unit the HC demands. I've said it elsewhere, but the plan has to bear fruit this season, i.e. a playoff win and a division title. McBeane will be judged not by individual player decisions with much of rebuilding behind them. Now, it's all about how their plan leads to wins in the regular season. I just hope the plan (or "process" in McD speak) can accomplish this. If not, the plateau into being average or slightly better will be frustrating. There are no more excuses.

Well if he does believe in that strategy, drafting a base DE and a slow RB probably aren't the ways to prove it. Or trading up to take an OT last year instead of a WR. I give them lots of credit for acquiring Diggs. I just see a very conservative coach on game day and more often than not in personnel decisions. Their 2nd and 3rd round picks aren't going to change the fortunes of this franchise. But those decisions illustrate OBD's mindset which, contrary to what management says, comes off as following the safe route. I get why they did last night. I just don't see it as the way to being an elite team when teams win by passing the ball and having just enough defense.

They have to win a playoff game this year to begin talking about extensions and the emotion at the high point of the off-season doesn't matter without that. This season is the final exam to determine whether or not their rebuild has been successful. Teams that jettison big contracts, completely overhaul the roster, draft a young QB top-10, make trades like the one for Diggs and completed 4 drafts should be expected to go deep into the post-season. The schedule will most assuredly be harder in 2020 than it was (30th hardest) in 2019.

Who cares? There were 15 WR's taken, 6 of which came in the first round. Another 9 in rounds 2-3. RB's are a devalued asset in the modern NFL. And it shows year after year when perhaps 1-2 are taken in the first round.

Which ones? Tennessee is the outlier, not the standard. In Back To The Future, Marty McDly went back 30 years into the past. You've done that outlining the strategy needed to win games in the 1990 NFL because ball control doesn't matter when your opponent scores 30+ like KC or perhaps BAL can do. Didn't Houston just score 19 points on Buffalo in something like 1.5 quarters? How are base DE's and slower RB's going to help Buffalo score?

Good offenses beat good defenses. See the SB win or AFCCG. Pretty much every game KC or BAL play. Those are the teams Buffalo needs to beat to advance.

Because as we all know...the key to winning is running and stopping the run. Oh wait, that was the 1985 NFL calling. Sorry.

??? Adding a big contract for a 10 year NFL veteran who's had injury issues of late doesn't strike as making any kind of sense. Especially not for this franchise which has been pretty intent on shedding bad contracts of veteran players. Why in goodness name would then reverse course this year, especially with their own guy taken in the 2nd just 3 years ago at LT? And after having taken the RT RG Cody Ford for whom they traded up to draft.

I was being sarcastic. The HC believes his defense can beat great offenses. He’s 3-17 career against playoff teams. More defense leading to wins is a fallacy.

Haven’t you heard? Defense wins championships. Those 4 DTs and 4 DEs acquired in UFA or the draft since 2018 will win the 13-10 games McD hopes for each week.

Dubs you know this guy ain’t starting in 2020. He’s a rotational player who’s competing with Murphy and Quinton Jefferson to play LDE in that 40 front.

If you’re interested in being a mediocre team then go for it.

And who’s winning with defensive line play in the modern NFL? Good QBs with skill players are. Ask SF how it works to have lots of DL talent going against a QB with backs and receivers.

They have no depth at WR. None. Those 3 guys I named likely aren’t on most NFL rosters.

You’re one injury away from having Robert Foster, Duke Williams, or PS hero Isaiah McKenzie getting serious snaps. They have razor thin depth at WR. HC still ain’t figured out he’s graded on how well the QB plays, not his ability to get meh DL on the field in a nice rotation.

A defensive HC going offense? Shudder the thought!

An edge rusher is the only position they should be developing on defense right now that could be more important than WR. I'll emphasize could in that regard. This organization hasn't drafted a WR who could be a starter and I'm starting to think no one there knows what a decent prospect looks like. They've passed on several, but their lone foray into WR was Zay Jones who is on his way out of the NFL. Beyond that, their draft investment is late round picks. The 2nd or 3rd round picks won't break this franchise, but it's a window into how they think big picture in terms of how to win. Going with more defense is McD being McD. They had a first round grade on Cody Ford last year. Traded up for him to play RT and that's uncertain entering his second year.

I now believe Belichick deliberately never taught BOB a thing. Probably exiled him from all personnel decisions meetings.