BillsVet

Last year I recall frequent reference to Green Bay having used multiple picks in the RD2-5 range and how a RD1 pick wasn't necessary. That may be true (although GB used their first RD1 pick there in 20+ years), but the Packers have used one Day 1, four Day 2 and four Day 3 picks on WRs going back to 2021. That compared to Buffalo's one Day 2 and three Day 3 picks At this point it's almost Buffalo being defiant and bucking the trend that teams take WRs. It remains fair, therefore, to highlight the disparity with other teams because it's a position of importance, particularly the boundary receivers. And to your point...yes, having them on rookie deals provides a benefit. The Bills need to do that not only at WR, but across their roster as re-signing all your own is nice in theory, but costly.

The personnel planning on defense compared to offense is such a stark contrast. They went DT and DE because their depth there will thin out real fast after 2025. Yet, at WR there's never been much planning ahead. They can get out of Samuel's deal after this season, Palmer after 2026, which leaves only Coleman and Shakir long-term. They have little in development unless you count a guy like Shavers who has been waived after his last 2 camps and put on the PS. But they're here at WR today because it wasn't a priority, as others have mentioned for 2021, 2022, and 2023. Taking Kincaid was a backup plan when the WRs were essentially gone his draft year. Coleman was a double-trade down. Right GB...it's not that they don't have them...it's that they don't plan to continuously improve the position as they do the secondary, DL, and even the LBs.

He averages less than 30 yards of total offense a game. You really want to die on this hill?

Define effective. Because based on the objective evidence below, he's a journeyman RB who does well in certain situations and most certainly is not an every-down player. If he were, he wouldn't be the 28th highest paid player on the team at less than 2M this season. Key UFA's tend to make far more. Nice try Hondo.

At least Gettleman and Hurney used 4 picks (2 1sts and 2 2nds) from 2013-2020. And Hurney was taking guys who were separating unlike Gettleman did in 2014 and 2015. I mean, are they really so much in lock-step with that philosophy or can they think for themselves at this point? The league changes a lot and if they're still adhering to what their former bosses were doing 5-10 years ago that bodes poorly for the future.

Ty Johnson? A 3rd down back, aka the easiest position to find in UFA and a part time one at that is proof positive? Sure dude. You got me on Leonard Floyd...1 player in the last 8 seasons who came in and produced some. Although, he was semi-invisible after the mid-way point of the season.

The trade for Diggs brought them 56 and their 62 which effectively they used to take 2 DL at 41 and 72. I didn't expect they'd walk away using that 2nd for more defense after selecting Hairston. Still, the defense, by a lot of metrics was not up to par for McD and certainly not in the playoffs. But what they did this off-season was bordering on obsessive defensively. This is a franchise which has now used 63% of their draft value on defense in the last 5 years.

Or, why they struggle with college WR evals and just decide not to pick those guys because it's too risky. Unlike about 30 other teams.

Name a single key player acquired in the period between the draft ending and Week 1 by this organization in 8 years. Reality is the two key player acquisition methods are over now and they're down to 4.1M in cap room which largely go to 2025 draftee contracts. Come to think of it, when was the last time Buffalo signed a productive WR in UFA before or after the draft?

Beane demonstrating some performance theater for the fans. Nothing more and nothing less than his schtick. Lot of people forget last year they were so set at WR after the draft he had to make a reference to working out a veteran NFL WR who turned out to be Quintez Cephus. Then, 2 weeks later they signed MVS which indirectly acknowledged their limited WR contingent couldn't get down field. In fact, their WR plan was so good in 2024, that after Josh got his head slammed against the turf in Baltimore and going 9 for 30 at Houston Weeks 4 and 5 respectively they traded for Amari Cooper. Jeremy and Joe, despite what anyone thinks of them, have every right to question a franchise which essentially just replicated their negligent WR moves.

Makes sense that they've traded for 3 and signed several in UFA during their tenure with relatively few drafted in RD1-4. At the same time, that gets pretty costly taking on or adding new contracts. Seems like their approach is to avoid the problem and just import WRs who have some actual NFL tape on them.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think that a veteran HC paired with, admittedly an admin-type GM, have some awareness about what to look for on both sides of the ball. If their lack of knowledge on WRs inhibits them from selecting them that's a huge red flag because it suggests they don't want to or don't care to learn after nearly a decade paired together. Furthermore, if I'm Joe Brady I walk away from this off-season a lot less enthused considering they essentially ignored the offense and basically said we're good there. It's a good thing they have Josh Allen because I'm not sure a prospective OC would want to work for McD and Beane knowing their voice is called upon when the HC and GM feel it's right.

I forgot the Rasul Douglas trade, so it's 63% defense since 2021. If I have time, I'll compare the WR draft value to their overall use and then offense. On the rare occasion they do draft one, it's not as well aligned to the scheme or coaching. Coleman was taken ostensibly to start, but it was clear he needed to be brought along slowly and they didn't do that. Reminds me of something @Coach Tuesday said last month about how their OL is good in this respect likely because Kromer is probably better at communicating needs to Beane and the scouts. They aren't there with WR's and part of that is I'm not sure who in that off-season process is advocating for the offense. Because the offense got severely short-changed this off-season in UFA and the draft.

From 2017-2025 including the trades I'm aware of (Benjamin, Diggs, and Cooper) Buffalo's allocated 47% of their draft value to offense, 52.7% to defense, and the rest is ST. From 2021-2025, they've taken it to another level. Offense is 37.5% compared to 62.2% on defense. I happened to do this without seeing the thread and I wanted to see it myself anyway.

Not yet, but give it time. A RD4 pick likely wasn't gonna be the difference this season on offense anyway. But they don't have the luxury of pleading ignorance either about WRs after entering last season with one of the worst groups in the NFL. People don't think the offense can tail off with Josh. That assumption will eventually get them into trouble just like it did to begin 2024.

If I'm not mistaken Josh saw 2-deep safeties 3rd least in the NFL last season. If that's not a reflection of how opponents assessed their WR group then I don't know what is. They needed to improve the defense and have made a significant attempt at that. But this team tends to play whack-a-mole with how they build their roster: fixing last year's problems and not considering other areas could drop off. In this case, the passing game predictably ran into a wall and they needed an in-season acquisition to address that. To ignore it again is, as you note, malpractice.

Seconded. Alas, this regime is unlikely to pursue a true WR1 again like Diggs was in 2020. They've convinced themselves that an ensemble cast of WR3's is just as suitable to enter the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Didn't work against quality teams to begin 2024...and won't this year either.

Milano was a 2017 pick when Beane wasn't in the building. The others are complementary pieces he then signs to top-10-15 at their position contracts. What is lost in this latest discussion about re-signing someone it's getting pricy. Truth is, they've got to start seeing starting caliber play out of guys on rookie or value UFA contracts. They can't sign everyone to market-based deals because it's how you're cap-challenged each March. Case in point: Of their 22 2017-2022 draft picks who reached or neared the end of their rookie deals, they've re-signed 16. And of those, 12 got 9M+ AAV extensions. Also speaks to how they're targeting lesser positional value players in the middle rounds, who while it's nice some have earned a second deal, it'd be better to find a solid pass rusher, WR, or even DT who means they don't have to pay one in UFA or take one high. I raise this point because as a perennial playoff team, they need to up their personnel acumen, pro and amateur. Can't just sign everyone for Beane to call their low-hanging fruit some exotic delicacy.

Entirely plausible. But not replacing him with someone the GM trusts in the ensuing 3 years and/or learning from their draft decisions is also concerning. We'll see how this draft goes...I'm just seeing them settle for tweaks too much to my liking.

Right...those drafts in 2007-08 offered a lot of opportunities to take BPA with needs all over. Much different situation now and requires threading the needle. I can understand losing a trusted personnel evaluator is difficult to overcome, but this is bigger picture than individual players. Their draft strategy in recent years has been more about using the draft for need which often leads to lower ceiling types and/or players at lower positional value positions who aren't impacting the game as much. And, when they've swung on higher positional value positions, they've struggled there, at least in 2022 and 2023. Also recognize you're going to have areas to improve and no team enters the draft without those. I see them not using the draft more longer-term and settling for lesser players on Day 1 and 2, particularly from 2022-2024. Can't do that another year.

They've become predictable with their RD1-3 picks these last 3 drafts. Lot of low positional value selections coming after 2021 draft. Yeah...2022 RD1 was need followed by a RB and ILB. 2023 with a TE (where they missed on the WRs), G, and LB then 2024 going straight need at WR, S, and DT. Beane is praised around here for entering the draft supposedly with few needs, yet their board tends to be a lot less BPA for a team expected to make the playoffs. It's as if they want to be stable at every position and are content with high floor types to achieve that. Using the draft for need catches up with a team no matter who you have at QB.

They've never needed this level of rookie contribution since becoming a playoff team and it's a direct result of being as cap-challenged last off-season. And that's happened because Josh has to get paid and McD needs all of his defensive pieces. Something has to give eventually. Their top 3 picks from 2024 were made more for need than anything else. They were weak at WR and Coleman received 60% of snaps through 8 of his first 9 weeks pre-injury. Carter had 30% in 6 of his first 7 on that rotational DL. And I suspect they envisioned Bishop starting until that pre-season injury. As an aside, I noted in another thread that from the 2017-22 drafts, 22 players reached the end of their rookie contracts. 16 were re-signed (73%) with only 6 hitting UFA. Even at slightly below-market rates, that's a lot of cap expended and especially when compared with adding UFA's. Means you gotta get lower-cost players.

McD is just upset that an admin type GM like Roseman is better at finding DT's than he is.

Lot of issues with this, primarily how it points to Bills of last few seasons getting careless with resources. Carter was the RD3 pick acquired from KC to essentially move from 28 to 32 and their first DT pick since Oliver in 2019. Moves made already or likely this off-season suggest Carter receiving less PT in his second season. Also means their first 3 picks from their 2024 draft are not showing what they wanted after 1 season. It's one thing to have 1 player under-perform, but the top 3? I know McD isn't keen on starting or giving significant PT to rookies, but getting into that position last year is a direct result of misusing resources, specifically cap dollars in previous seasons at positions of lower positional value. That leads to needing rookies to play well...and in this case it was lesser regarded prospects who predictably struggled at times for a team expected to win in the playoffs. They gotta be better with positional priorities in general, but also in personnel decisions. Too many RD2 and RD3 picks just aren't measuring up and that leads to needing more higher-priced vets being signed.

With this extension, of the 2017-22 draft picks who finished their rookie deal, Buffalo has re-signed 16 versus 6 allowed to try UFA. They really love them some of their own picks.