Jump to content

folz

Community Member
  • Posts

    1,760
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by folz

  1. First you have to define what you mean by a legit offense and legit QB. Do you mean top half of the league? Top 10? Elite/Top 3-5? I would say that in the McDermott era, we have only played one bad offense and 3 to 4 bad QBs in the playoffs (14 games total). Here are the teams we faced and their league-wide PF ranking that year: TEAM POINTS FOR RANK QUATERBACK JAX 5th Bortles HOU 14th Watson* IND 9th Rivers BAL 7th Jackson K.C. 6th Mahomes N.E. 6th Jones K.C. 4th Mahomes MIA 11th Thompson CIN 8th Burrow Pitt 23rd Pickett K.C. 15th Mahomes DEN 10th Nix BAL 2nd Jackson K.C. 15th Mahomes Ok, I think we can automatically rule out Jax, Miami, and Pitt (due to the QBs alone). And let's eliminate Watson* with a 14th ranking and Jones with a 6th ranking (as I assume those QBs would also not meet your criteria). How about Nix, Rivers, and Jackson. Are they considered legit QBs? I would say so, and they all had top 10 scoring offenses. So, that gives us nine games vs. legit offenses and QBs (top 10 that season/legit QB---KC x4, Bal x2, Ind, Den, Cin). In those games, the Bills opponents have averaged 22 points per game. For reference, over the last 5 years, the average points scored by a playoff team is 21.84 points/game. If you take K.C. out of the picture for the moment, that leaves 5 games vs. legit offenses and QBs. The Bills opponents averaged 17.2 points per game in those contests. So, it seems to me that you really mean when the Bills face elite offenses with a generational QB (and weapons: Hill, Kelce, Chase, Higgins) they have been a doormat. But even that doesn't hold true unless you choose not to count Lamar Jackson and Baltimore as legit offenses and QBs. If I don't include Denver and Indy---just KC, Cinn, and Balt (as legit), those teams combined have averaged 27.7 points vs. the Bills in the playoffs. But again, if I take out K.C. and just look at vs. Bal and Cin, those teams averaged 18.3 points vs. the Bills. Oh, and by the way, almost every defense that faces a generational QB with an elite offense will tend to fare worse, and most often, look like a doormat. That's what great offenses do to most teams. It's not like the Bills are alone in struggling against elite offenses. I tend to agree that the current issues are more with personnel than scheme or McD himself. Though I am not opposed to tweaking the scheme or whatever needs to be done with the guys they have and will be getting back. [*Edited: Originally listed Stroud as Houston QB, not Watson. Thanks for catching that ganesh---not sure how I gaffed that so bad.]
  2. I hear this all the time that we get smoked in the playoffs. So, let me just add a little perspective. In 10 playoff games (in the McD era) vs. teams not named the Chiefs, the Bills defense is giving up an average of 18.3 points in the playoffs. So, not everyone is smoking us, it is really just the Chiefs. Oh and by the way, you do realize that K.C. is a dynasty team with a generational offense correct? In the last 3 games vs. the Chiefs, at the end of regulation, K.C. was up a combined 6 points (over 3 games). So, they have been 2 points better than us in each of our last three playoff matchups (with one OT game, and one last second missed FG). I mean how close can you get to beating one of the best teams the league has seen. Obviously that doesn't speak to how well the defense did or did not play, but we are literally three plays away from being 3-1 vs. the Chiefs in the playoffs [and that doesn't even take into account that the refs heavily influenced two of the 4 playoff games vs. the Chiefs---2020 and 2024; or injuries...we were pretty banged up (worse than the Chiefs) for at least two of those four contests]. And you almost have to separate the Bills vs. the Chiefs from a normal playoff game (on both sides). I mean, do you think that the Chiefs defense sucks and falls apart in the playoffs? In the Mahomes era: Chiefs have allowed the Bills an average of 28.25 points per game in the playoffs (4 games). Chiefs vs. all other playoff teams averaged 22.88 points allowed (17 games). Is that difference because the Chiefs defense sucks in the playoffs (obviously not), or is it because Buffalo is also a special offense that they have a harder time stopping? The Chiefs are giving up 5.37 points more to the Bills than to their average playoff opponent. The Bills score 1 point higher vs. the Chiefs than their playoff average. The Chiefs score 2.5 points more vs. the Bills than their playoff average. And that 1.5 points is about what we are losing to them by (2 points/last 3 playoff games). But, the margin is razor-thin. And, if the Chiefs are holding other teams to 3, 10, 17, 22, 24 points per playoff game, then they can obviously take their foot off the gas on offense. Run long-sustained drives, get into 4-minute offense early, pull your starters, etc. There is no need for the Chiefs to score 36-42 points vs. those teams. Yet, against the Bills, the Chiefs know they are going to need to score at least 30 points and keep their foot on the gas for 60 minutes, because Josh is going to keep coming. So, to continually say that the Bills defense has been worse vs. the Chiefs than other teams, or allowed them to score more than their season average, or whatever, really doesn't prove anything to me. They know they have to do that against the Bills or they will get beat. They just don't always need to pour it on against other teams. In the Mahomes era, the Chiefs have averaged 30 points per playoff game (21 playoff games). In the four playoff games vs. the Bills, they have averaged 34.75 (and that includes one OT game---if you only take regulation, then the Bills have allowed the Chiefs 32.5 points/playoff game---only 2.5 points above their average). How much of that is because they have to score more against the Bills, rather than all of those other defenses being superior to the Bills' defense. 12 of KC's 21 playoff games (57%), their opponents scored 24 points or fewer. In 8 of their 21 playoff games (38%), their opponents scored fewer than 21 points. They haven't needed to score more against other teams---doesn't necessarily mean that Buffalo's defense is worse than those other teams. Now, I'm not saying that our defense has been great vs, K.C. in the playoffs, but it's also true that K.C. scores a lot no matter who they play (when they need to). In 21 playoff games, the Chiefs have only scored below 22 points twice (9.5% of the time)---to Tampa Bay in the 2020 SB, and to Baltimore in the 2023 AFC Conf Championship. (You could add vs. Philly in the 2024 SB too, they scored 22 points, but it was in garbage time). So, only 3 teams (in 21 games) have really stopped the Chiefs offense. in 12 of 21 games, the Chiefs have scored between 27 and 51 points (57% of their playoff games). This idea that our defense is so much worse than other teams vs. K.C. doesn't seem to hold up to scrutiny when you look at all of the context surrounding the stats. Also, the idea that we get smoked by everyone in the playoffs is also a fallacy. It really is just the Chiefs, and as I said, there are many reasons for that (beyond them just being a generational/historical offense). As to this year, yeah, the defense does not look great right now. The pass rush has actually improved, but the run defense and tackling has been horrible (and I too am concerned about the secondary). But, we need this defense to be at its peak come playoff time, not in weeks 5 and 6. And there are a few reasons at least to think they can still get better as the year goes on. It is a bit of a wait and see right now...will Hairston, Hoect, Ogunjobi, Milano, etc. make a difference, will the young guys improve, will the new guys start to gel better, etc. But the idea that McD is not a good defensive coach or his scheme sucks seems too simplistic an answer when we have statistically and consistently been one of the best defenses in most categories (points, yards, sacks, turnovers) over the last 8 years. And that they have actually fared well (18.3 points allowed) in the playoffs vs. all teams not named the Chiefs. Everyone's defense is going to do worse against the Chiefs than if playing 90% of the rest of the league. And no other team has had to face the Chiefs more in the playoffs (4 times) than we have (so, again, comparing our playoff stats vs.other teams' playoff stats, etc. is really an apples to oranges comparison). I'm not giving up on this team or this defense yet. Hopefully they have used the BYE week to start getting straight. P.S. As far as the AFC East sucking (being the reason for good defensive stats for the Bills), well it sucked when the Patriots were winning too. Do we discount their wins and stats for that? Over the last 10 years, no team in the AFC west is over .500 win % except for the Chiefs (do we discount the Chiefs success because the AFC west has been weak)? etc., etc. If I have the time later, I may look at the Bills' defense vs.good/top QBs. Now obviously, every defense will be worse vs. a top QB than an average or worse QB. That's just common sense. But have the Bills been say worse than most teams vs. good QBs---I'll have to look to see if that is true or just another false talking point. I know we have fared well against Lamar Jackson at least (regular season and post-season), for instance.
  3. Ohio State players recently drafted to the NFL: 2025: 14 players 2024: 4 players 2023: 6 players 2022: 6 players We might have some good skill players if we swapped teams, but good luck filling out the trenches (offensive and defensive lines). For the 2026 draft, it looks like they may again have about 14 draft eligible players. That would leave about 11 starting spots open on an NFL team, and no depth. As good as OSU is and as many players as they have get drafted, you would probably need at least the last 5 years of OSU rosters to fill out an NFL team. And you would still have to be starting some guys picked in say rounds 5-7.
  4. I don't think that the sky is falling or that anyone should be fired, but as one of the bigger optimists on the board, I am revoking my Homer card...well, at least until kickoff two weeks from now. I won't argue with any negative posts in the meantime (probably). At the moment, you guys definitely look correct about some things. Very disappointing showing. We just never matched Atlanta's intensity or physicality. They are fighting hard to get back in their division race, while it seems like the Bills were hoping to just coast through the regular season. They should look at Baltimore as an example of what can happen if you're not careful. A lot of work to do during the bye week. As a team. The defense has been terrible against the run (tackling was abysmal tonight). The offense has stalled way too often. And Josh does not get a pass. He has not played well either over the last 3 weeks. The bye couldn't come at a better time. Hopefully the bitter taste in their mouths from these last two games will really push them to work hard and figure things out during the bye. And hopefully everyone will heal up. I mean, by the 2nd quarter tonight, we were missing 5/6 starters on defense and 3 of our top 5 receiving targets (plus our center got dinged up pretty good)...but, it's the NFL. There are no excuses. We need our depth to be able to step up when needed. But I still Billeve that they will eventually turn things around. 4-2 is not the end of the world, it just feels that way at the moment. But, we definitely need to see some urgency and intensity from this team. And big thumbs down to Disney/ABC/ESPN. That was one of the worst Monday Night broadcasts I've ever seen. Orlovsky is just terrible and talked incessantly, almost no replays, too many distant camera shots/angles on like a 3rd and 1 (couldn't even see who had the ball sometimes) when they should have been in tight on the formation. At one point, they cut to a camera that was moving around and not focusing on anything. If they don't have a second crew that can properly televise a game, then they should not be having two Monday night games on the same night.
  5. On the year, Worthy is averaging 36.25 receiving yards per game. If you include his rushing stats, he is averaging 49.5 scrimmage yards per game and 0.25 TDs/game. He has 1 TD on the year and missed two games due to injury. Keon is averaging 45.20 receiving yards per game and 0.40 TDs/game this season. He has 2 TDs on the year. Keon may not be setting the world on fire, but are people really still lamenting over a player who is averaging 36 receiving yards per game? Career update---Regular Season (prior to Bills week 6 Monday night game): Games Targets Receptions Rec yards Rec TDs Catch% 20+-yard recs Yds/Reception Yds/Target Total scrimmage yards Total TDs Keon: 18 86 50 782 6 58.1 15 15.6 9.1 791 6 Xavier: 20 116 70 763 6 60.3 6 10.9 6.6 914 9 If Keon hits just his current career average of 44 yards on Monday night versus Atlanta, he will have 826 total scrimmage yards---just 88 yards fewer than Worthy, but also in one fewer games (and with approx. 26 fewer targets than Worthy). Again, I think both players can be good as they mature. But, I'm having a hard time understanding those that think Worthy is sooooo superior to Keon at this point when looking at their stats head-to-head.
  6. Just an update in regards to our defense vs. our previous opponents (wasn't sure where else to post this): Last 4 games (Bills defense vs. offensive opponents). For the most part, the Bills have held their last 4 opponents to at or below their season averages. I know we need to see more on defense to take us all the way (and we have not seen a dominant performance yet, by any means), but I'm not sure that it's as bad as some of you think. Some folks act as if we performed worse against these teams than other defenses have/would. We are currently an average-ish defense with a lot of room to grow and get better----with the returning players and the young guys getting experience. [Stats below include today's (week 6) games.] Just FYI. JETS Points/game Yards/game Sacks/TOs allowed/game season averages: 20.5 311 4/1.33 Jets vs. Bills: 10 154 4/1.0 DOLPHINS season averages: 22.33 300.16 2/1.33 Phins vs. Bills: 21 276 0/2.0 SAINTS season averages: 18.5 315.5 1.83/0.66 Saints vs. Bills: 19 298 3.0/1.0 PATRIOTS season averages: 25 345.16 3.0/1.16 Pats vs. Bills: 23 338 4.0/1.0
  7. I'm not sure, we'd have to go back and look at all of those catches to see how many air yards there were for each. Obviously, we know that Shakir and Cook get a ton of YAC, but I would venture to guess that most of Keon's 20+-yard catches were more air yards than YAC (same for Palmer and probably Kincaid too, and Hawes' couple of grabs, and Knox---I don't remember a ton of YAC for those players--i.e., taking say a 5-yard pass and turning it into a 25-yard play). But, in the long run, how much does it matter if you get say 25 yards that is all in the air, or 25 yards with a short pass and YAC. 25 yards is 25 yards, right?
  8. If the only thing that matters is a Super Bowl and you're all convinced that McDermott can never get us there, then why are you even still watching the games? Why not turn off the TV/computer until we get a new coach because obviously there is no point in watching now. I've been told multiple times that regular season games/stats are meaningless (only the SB matters at this point), so why are you even upset at a regular season loss then? It shouldn't even matter to you because you already know that McD can't get us to or win a Super Bowl right? So, who cares if we go 13-4 or 1-16. What does it matter according to your standards? You guys should actually be rooting for the Bills to tank, so you can get your new coach and #1 WR.
  9. I'm not saying there aren't any problems, but some of you guys may be surprised to know that currently the Bills are 3rd in the league in 20+-yard passing plays/receptions. Not sure how you qualify that. And New England dinked and dunked their way to a few Super Bowls, so...
  10. A quick comparison of the two coaches: Sean McDermott: 8-1/3 years as HC; 90-46 (.662 win %); playoffs 7-7 (.500 win %). Mike Vrabel: 6-1/3 years as HC; 57-47 (.548 win %); playoffs 2-3 (.400 win %). Head-to-Head record between the two coaches is 3 to 3; combined point differential of those 6 games is Buffalo +34 points. Now, before you respond with, yeah well you can't really compare records because Sean McDermott has had Josh Allen, let me remind you that he did not have Josh in 2017---and in 2018 and 2019, Josh was still very raw (not the All-Pro MVP QB he is now by a long shot), and the talent on the roster in all 3 of those years was not great (as we were rebuilding). But, yes, Sean has had 5 years of prime Josh Allen. Now, obviously, Vrabel has not had the quarterback play that McDermott has with Josh (I'm not trying to say that he has), but the QBs he did have were selected 2nd, 3rd, 8th, and 33rd overall in the NFL draft, so not total trash---even if they never reached their potential (Mariota, Maye, Tannehill, Levis). [And coaching/development can play into a QB succeeding or not as well.] But, if you think you can't really compare their records because of QB play, well then since they are both defensive coaches, how about looking at their team's defensive rankings: Sean McDermott Mike Vrabel Yds allowed/Pts allowed Yds allowed/Points allowed 2017 26 18 --- --- 2018 2 18 8 3 2019 3 2 21 12 2020 14 16 28 24 2021 1 1 12 6 2022 6 2 23 14 2023 9 4 18 16 2024 17 11 --- --- 2025 9 18 18 9 Average 10 11 20 13 Vrabel's best defensive rankings were in his first year. He took over a team that had gone 9-7 the previous year and who had made the playoffs, beating the Chiefs in the Wild Card round, before losing to the Patriots. So, he inherited a decent roster (it wasn't a rebuild). In that first year, he repeated the 9-7 record of the previous year (under Mike Mularkey), but Tennessee missed the playoffs. And last note I'll make to billsherd...is Vrabel the problem or is Derrick Henry the problem? In two of the three games that McDermott lost to Vrabel, Derrick Henry had 223 scrimmage yards, 5 TDs, 0 fumbles. We obviously have had issues with Henry no matter what team he is on. Also, two of the three wins that Vrable has over Sean were by 3 points each (the third was a blowout where Henry went crazy). Now, I'm not saying that Vrabel isn't a good coach, I'm just saying that he is not a coach that Bills fans should fear in any way (or believe to be superior to McDermott).
  11. I think you have things a bit backwards or are thinking back too much to last year. The Bills are currently 10th in receiving yards and tied for 6th in receiving TDs. They are 3rd in 20+-yard passing plays. It's not as bad as some of you guys think. Our offense has been very good except for the 2nd quarter of the Saints game and the first half vs. the Pats. The Bills defense is currently 2nd in the league against the pass (yes, some of that has to do with our poor rush defense, but I don't think you can totally discount a 2nd-place ranking). The Bills are 9th in the league in yards allowed/14th in points allowed. The problem thus far has been the run defense, not the pass defense. And as far as the pass rush, the Bills are tied for 5th in sacks (though there are ties in front of us as well, basically, 8 teams have more sacks than the Bills). The Bills are currently 2nd in QB hurries, 3rd in QB pressures, and 2nd in QB pressure percentage. So, I'm not sure what games you are watching if you think our pass rush has been "missing". And yes, the secondary is still a bit rough. But Cole is improving each week and Hairston will be back (and hopefully ready to take over). Benford and Johnson are both very good players, and Rapp is at least solid. As far as fixing the run defense, we have Oliver, Hoect, and Ogunjobi coming back and the young guys should get at least marginally better as the year progresses (Walker, Sanders, Jackson). And let Kraft, Diggs, and the Pats fans gloat. They won the battle, but they will lose the war. The season is a marathon, not a sprint. We have loftier goals than beating a division rival in week 5.
  12. Welcome to the WWE-era of NFL football. Enjoy the stories, athleticism, and entertainment, but do not expect fair, competitive sport (at least not consistently)...you'll be much happier that way.
  13. Yeah, sorry, I was kind of responding to two posts at once. I didn't mean to intimate that you had given up on all of those players. And I agree with your last sentence. Obviously the coaches do not find Jackson ready yet (for whatever reasons). But, that is a far cry from some (not you) labeling him as a miss or bust or disappointment, or whatever already (just 4 games into his career).
  14. Just to note. I tallied up all of the 2025 3rd round draftees snap counts on their side of the ball (offense or defense). 2025 third round picks are currently averaging 21.89% snap counts overall. If you subtract the 4 players on IR, then the 3rd rounders are averaging 24.46% snaps on offense or defense. There are 11 of 38 players (29%) garnering more than 23% snap counts. There are only five 2025 third round players getting more than 50% of their team's snaps on their side of the ball. There are 12 players of 38 (31.6%---including the 4 IR guys) that do not have a snap yet. Approximately only 17% of third round draft picks become starters. If we are speaking of Jackson, the players ahead of him are Joey Bosa, Groot, Aj Epenesa, and Javon Solomon. To expect any rookie 3rd-rounder to be ahead of the first three is just silly. So, the question becomes, why isn't he getting snaps ahead of Solomon, right? Is it really that odd that a 3rd-round rookie (in the first 4 games of his career) might not play over a 5th-round 2nd-year guy, who has been in the system for a year-and-a-half already? And with the injuries to Oliver and Milano, he may also have been caught in a numbers game on defense (as far as being inactive). Solomon has played 64% of the special teams snaps this season. Maybe with the injuries, you can only suit one of the two...and even if Jackson were ahead of Solomon as a DE, as a rookie, it probably wasn't significant enough to lose what Solomon brings on STs---especially against teams like the Saints, Dolphins, and Jets. It's a team sport, sometimes you have to look at the whole picture, not just the individual parts. And I see we have already written off Solomon then too, along with guys like Carter, Bishop, Williams, and now Jackson and Sanders, etc. When I was a kid, outside of the very top picks in the draft, we understood that it took most players 1-3 years to put it together and be successful in the league. Yet, now we are writing off all of our rookie and 2nd year players already? Just like we did with Bernard and others. Why do you think there is an adage that you can't evaluate draft classes until 3-years out? Because some guys take time to develop. They won't all become starters, and some may end up not be very good in the long run, but you have to give them some time to show what they got and to get enough opportunity to do so before writing them off, imo.
  15. And just to note: The Bills are currently 2nd in points scored The Bills are currently 15th in points against The Bills are currently 3rd best in point differential at +43 points (1 point behind 2nd place Seattle, and 6 points behind 1st place Detroit). So, only two teams have outscored their opponents by more points than the Bills have thus far this year. So, even though our games have been closer than some would like, we are still winning by more than most teams. Granted it's only 4 games, but I don't see the Bills not remaining near the top in point differential because they were 3rd in 2024, 4th in 2023, 2nd in 2022, 1st in 2021 and 5th in 2020. So the idea of us not winning by enough or having enough style points doesn't really seem to be an issue when you compare the Bills to the rest of the NFL (over more than 5+ years now). They are generally winning their games by more points than 85-100% of the other teams (depending on the year---currently, this year, they are winning their games by more points than 93.75% of the other teams).
  16. True, the Saints, Jets, and Dolphins are all in the bottom half/bottom third of the league in offense. But, we still held them to their season averge points/yards per game or worse. And it's not like those teams don't have some very good offensive weapons (Hill, Waddle, Kamara, Olave, Wilson, Hall, Fields---running the ball-wise, etc.), they're going to make some plays. Some posters are acting like we got lit up by these offenses (or played them worse than other teams have) and that we have one of the worst defenses in the league. We are currently an average defense with a lot of opportunity to get much better (with the returning guys and the rookies and 2nd year guys getting more reps and experience). Opponent Total Pts. Pts. rank Yds Rank Avg. Pts/gm Avg. Yds/gm Pts vs. Buf Yds vs. Buf Miami 83 21st 26th 21 286 21 276 Jets 90 19th 21st 23 305 10 154 Saints 66 28th 22nd 17 301 19 298 So, we held Miami and the Saints to just about their current season averages. We held the Jets well below their season average. [Miami has also played: Colts, Pats, Jets; Saints have also played: Cards, SF, Seattle; Jets have also played: Steelers, Bucs, and Dolphins.] And just to repeat from my previous post (what billsfan89 was responding to), if anyone missed it: The Bills held their last three opponents to an average of 16.6 points and 243 yards per game, when league average for offenses is 22 points and 340 yards per game Season combined average for the three teams in question is 20.33 points and 297.33 yards per game. So, 16.6 and 243 is still better--Jets game skews that a bit though. But, just because we let those teams hang around a little longer than we should have in those games, does not mean that they lit up our defense. Though as I said, we obviously still have a long ways to go in the run stuffing department. Also, it's not always just the defense. When, in the 2nd quarter (vs. the Saints), your offense goes INT, 5 and out/punt, 3 and out/punt, 3 and out/punt, it kind of gives teams a chance to get back in or hang around the game. I don't expect our offense to score on every drive, but getting no points on 4 consecutive drives and giving the other team good field position will definitely help to keep a team in a game (plus eleven penalties---seven of which were on the offense or STs). Lots to improve everywhere on the team, but not really anything to be worried too much about overall, imo
  17. No question the team needs to work on the run defense, but I think the Baltimore game kind of skews the team stats at the moment (with both points and Henry's run total). They will balance out as we go. But how bad has the Bills defense been of late? We held our last 3 opponents to an average of 16.6 points. League scoring average is 22. We held our last 3 opponents to 298, 276, and 154 yards of total offense. The league average for yards per game is 339.8. We created 4 turnovers in the last 3 games (we also created 4 more fumbles, but which the fumbling team recovered). We had 7 sacks over the last 3 games. In the last 3 games, we held our opponents to an average of 7.66 points in the 2nd half of those games. Lots of new players, two new coaches, Oliver and Milano coming back, Hoect, Ogunjobi, and Hairston still in the wings. This defense has not been bad the last few weeks and will only get better as we move forward. But again, still need to work on that run defense (hopefully Oliver, Hoect, and Ogunjobi can help in the category, eventually).
  18. First of all, the Bills do have some speed on their team: Worthy 4.21 [40-time] Samuel 4.31 Moore 4.35 Shakir 4.43 And obviously Worthy is waaaay faster than Keon, and no one is going to describe Keon as a receiver who can "take the top off a defense"...and yet, it might interest you to know: In 22 games (including playoffs), Xavier Worthy has 12 receptions of 20 yards or more (54, 50, 50, 37, 35, 31, 28, 26, 24, 23, 21, 21). In 20 games (including playoffs), Keon Coleman has 15 receptions of 20 yards or more (64, 57, 49, 44, 28, 25, 25, 24, 24, 21, 21, 21, 21, 20, 20). Does it really matter if you get them with speed/route running, or you get them with route running/size/jump balls or whatever?
  19. First of all, Beane had nothing to do with passing on Mahomes (that was McD/Whaley). But, yes, let's talk about hindsight with Mahomes. Easy to say now the Bills should have drafted Mahomes or not traded K.C. that pick. But, in 2017, we had a first year head coach who didn't even have a good assessment of his own roster yet. We had a lame duck GM, who was about to be fired. At the time, 2017 was not considered a great draft for QBs. Some people felt that K.C. reached for Mahomes at 10 (he was not expected to be as good as he's been, or at least get there as fast as he did by many at the time). And 2018 was already shaping up (again, at the time) to be a generational QB class, as good as 1983. It made all of the sense in the world at the time for McD to wait on his QB. Wait until he knew his roster and organization, wait until he had a GM he trusts and had time to scout all of the QBs, wait for the better QB class, etc. I think you are looking back with hindsight if you think the Bills should have drafted Mahomes. I tried to follow all of the trade deals and subsequent trades of those picks and this was basically what I found as the outcome of the two trades (draft picks in parentheses): Chiefs got: Mahomes (10), Worthy (28), CB Jaden Hicks (133), OC C.J. Hanson (248). Bills got: Tremaine Edmunds (16), Tredavious White (27), Keon Coleman (32), Zay Jones (37), Dion Dawkins (63), DeWayne Carter (95), and OT Travis Clayton (221). The Bills also had to give up two 5th rounders in the process: picks 154 and 156. So, picks 10, 28, 154, and 156 netted us the above 7 players. Sure Zay was a bad pick and Tremaine never quite reached the level of his draft status (though a solid player), but I'd say we did ok. No picks will ever match the value of Mahomes, obviously, but considering we were still able to get Josh the next year, I'd say things worked out for the best. I personally would take Josh 100 times out of 100 times over Mahomes, not because I think Josh is better than Mahomes, but because he just fits Buffalo so perfectly (and I like him/his personality better---though Pat seems like a good guy too). Time to let the whole Mahomes trade go...everything happened they way it was meant to and our day in the Sun will come. Couldn't agree more with everything you've said Generic (even though I didn't quote all of it). But the bold statement is the key that some people just can't get. Both players are good and each team got the guy they wanted. We didn't want Worthy for our offense (otherwise we would have just picked him where we were rather than trading back, and obviously K.C. wanted Worthy over Keon, as they picked Worthy with Keon still on the board). This was a win-win for both teams. And it's not like Worthy is going to be the one player that prevents us from beating K.C. Well, yes, let's talk about the playoffs for a moment. Before garbage time in the Super Bowl (11 quarters of playoff games), Worthy was averaging 53.45 yards and 0.36 TDs per playoff game (and that includes the 29-yard reception in the Bills game that definitely should have been called an INT or an incompletion---but the refs gave it to Worthy). He wasn't killing it all playoffs. Then, with 2:33 minutes left in the third quarter of the Super Bowl, with the Eagles winning 34-0, Worthy hits some big plays. Let me repeat that, the game was 34-0 in favor of the Eagles (34-6 going into the 4th quarter) when Worthy went off. Do you think maybe the Eagles had let up a bit at that point? Do you think Worthy still has that outburst if it's a one-score game at that point? I'm not knocking him for his SB production (it was still impressive and I'd be excited about it as a Chiefs fan as hopefully, things to come), I'm just saying I don't think you can use last year's playoffs as any kind of arbiter for these two players because Keon was in a weird place in our offense after coming back from injury and with Mack playing well in his absence (and Curtis Samuel getting healthy), and because the majority of Worthy's stats came in garbage time of a blowout. To be clear with their career stats thus far: Regular Season: Worthy (19 games): 64 recs on 107 targets for 721 yards and 6 TDs, 11.3 yards/rec, 6.74 yards/target. 142 rushing yards with 3 TDs. Coleman (17 gms): 46 recs on 79 targets for 759 yards and 5 TDs, 16.5 yards/rec, 9.6 yards/target. 8 rushing yards with 0 TDs. Total yards and TDs (reg season): Worthy 863 and 9 TDs; Keon 767 and 5 TDs (Worthy has played two more games than Keon and has 50 more touches). Total yards and TDs (reg season and playoffs): Worthy 1,150 yards and 12 TDs; Keon 789 yards and 5 TDs. (Worthy had 66 more touches than Keon.) Total yards and TDs (reg season and playoffs, minus SB garbage time): Worthy 1,002 yards and 10 TDs; Keon 789 yards and 5 TDs (Worthy with 60 more touches than Keon.) Like I said, it seems like a win/win scenario for both teams, imo. But either way, it will probably take a couple more seasons to make any true assessment, in relation to comparing the two players.
  20. You're right, players (rookies and 2nd year guys) never improve with more experience and more reps. Defenses never improve as the year goes on. Adding decent players to the rotations won't add anything. Yeah, let's write off our first round pick already...I mean he hasn't even seen the field yet this year (Bust). And yeah, it's only two players out, shouldn't make a difference. Oliver and Milano don't bring anything special to the game. This defense sucks and it always will, there is no hope for improvement ever. Coaches and players don't learn and get better. Other top coaches never, ever make mistakes---but McD would throw away every single game with piles of mistakes if Josh didn't bail him out every single time. All these Homer fans with their excuses. I can't ever forgive McD for 13 seconds. I don't care that he's 16th in win % of all coaches who have ever coached in the league, or that it's the best win % ever by a Bills Head Coach. I don't care that we held our last three opponents to an average of 16.6 points (when the league average for points per game surrendered is 22 points) and that we won each of those games by double digits (despite almost 60% of NFL games being one-score games). I mean, if I was coaching, we'd win by like 40 points each week and we'd have like 10 Super Bowls already. I mean that's how good Josh Allen is (even though he's only played 7 years). I mean, how can a coach not win with an MVP-caliber QB, maybe McD should try to learn a little from John Harbaugh. I mean if you're not willing to fire your coach after a 4-0 start, after going 13-4 with an AFC Championship game appearance (that the refs screwed us in), and winning your division and making the playoffs each of the last 5 years, then you're just some pie-in-the-sky homer that can't see reality, that can't see the facts of the situation.
  21. Well, currently, the Bills are: 14th in yards allowed 17th in points allowed 16th in sacks 12th in takeaways I'd say that qualifies for already being almost exactly average. Yes, we played teams that currently have a shared record of 1-13, but let's not pretend that that record tells the whole story. Baltimore is still tied for 2nd most points scored this year (even after their loss today) and have a great offense with two HOFers, Miami has a lot of serious offensive weapons (Hill, Waddle, Achane, Gordon, Waller, Washington)---even if it hasn't come together for them yet. Sure, they got crushed by Indy in week one, but then played two close games vs. NE and Buf. New Orleans also has some pretty decent offensive weapons (Olave, Shaheed, Kamara, Juwan Johnson, Miller, Cooks). Yes, they got crushed by Seattle, but they were also in tight, one-score games with 2-2 Arizona and 3-1 San Fran. Even the Jets---they lost by 2 points to 3-1 Pitt, lost by 2 points to 3-1 Tampa, and lost to us. I'm not saying these teams are all good teams, I'm just saying that they (and their offenses) are better than a 1-13 record would indicate. No question the Bills defense needs to improve, especially against the run. But, let's not pretend like they are currently one of the worst defenses in the league.
  22. Currrently there are only 4 teams scoring an average of 30 or more points/game (in 2025): Detroit: 34.25 Buffalo: 33.25 Baltimore: 33.25 Indianapolis: 30.75 In 2024, only 3 teams averaged 30 or more points/game: Detroit, Buffalo, Baltimore. In 2023, only one team averaged 30 or above: Dallas. In 2022, No teams averaged 30 or more points per game. In 2021, only one team averaged 30 or above: Dallas. In 2020, only two teams averaged 30 or more: Green Bay and Tampa Bay. So, over the last 6 years, only 11 teams averaged 30 or more points per game. With 32 teams over 6 years, that means only 11 teams of a possible 192 teams accomplished that feat (or it only happened 5.73% of the time over the last 6 years---and that is if all four 2025 teams can maintain that rate for the rest of the year). It may not be remarkable to score 30 points in an individual game, but to do it on a consistent basis is actually quite a feat. Since 2020 (5-1/4 years), the Bills have averaged 29.64 points per game. Since Brady took over OC, we have averaged 29.97 points/game.
  23. Cook is currently on pace for 1,704 rushing yards and 21 TDs---2,082.5 yards from scrimmage. 😱🤪 Not saying he'll reach that, but wow. It wasn't the greatest defensive effort, but a few things: 1. No Oliver or Milano today. Hoect, Ogunjobi, and Hairston are still in the wings. 2. Desperate teams (0-3) are dangerous. 3. The Saints may not be a great team, but they do have some talented players (Olave, Kamara, Juwan Johnson, Rasheed Shaheed, C Erik McCoy, etc.). 4. Bills are still adjusting/growing on defense (lots of new players---7 new guys on the defensive line alone, lots of rookies and 2nd year guys, and they're trying to tweak some things scheme-wise). This defense will get better as the year rolls on. 5. How bad were they actually? (see below) NFL teams are currently averaging 339.3 yards per game and 22 points. Bills allowed the Saints 298 yards and 19 points (so below league average). The Saints offense (weeks 1-4) is averaging 301 yards and 16.5 points per game. The defense stopped them on 6 of 10 drives, with two of their successful drives being field goals. We had 3 sacks and caused two turnovers (well, technically only one, but Boas also forced a fumble that the Saints recovered). Held them to 3 points in the 4th quarter on three possessions. Held them to 109 passing yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. It wasn't a dominant performance by any means, but it wasn't awful. We basically kept them right around their average (which for an 0-3 team is not great). They didn't really perform much better than they did vs. their first three opponents. Run defense still needs work (gave up 189 today) and there is still a lot for them to learn from this game, but with guys returning and all of the rookies gaining valuable experience and reps...we'll get better.
  24. Desperate teams (0-3) are dangerous. And the Saints may not be a good team, but they do have some very talented players (Olave, Kamara, Demario Davis, Cam Jordan, Juwan Johnson, C Erik McCoy, Rasheed Shaheed, the rookie corner Sanker looked pretty good, etc.). They are going to make some plays. Props to the defense for shutting them down in the 4th quarter (and with no Oliver or Milano). The Saints last 3 possessions were field goal, downs, downs. I got: Josh Cook Shakir Bosa Bernard Bishop Shout outs: Not just from today, but man, I really like Dorian Strong's toughness and tackling (4 solo tackles today). Tre seemed to have a bit of an up and down game, but he did have 7 tackles, 1 TFL, and the big stop on 4th down. As to the rookies, along with Strong, Hawes and Walker are looking like players....and even Sanders had a nice tackle today. This rookie class could be very strong if they keep up this progress (and we haven't even seen Hairston yet). Taking the positives from a not-so-pretty win. 4-0 baby! Go Bills!
  25. Cook kind of reminds me more of Leveon Bell in his prime. Bell was a bit bigger and Cook is a bit faster, but, the way Cook is patient finding the holes, follows and works with his blockers, and then the explosiveness when hitting the hole all kind of remind me of Bell. Last two years: Kamara: 2,653 yards from scrimmage and 14 TDs; 4.05 yds/C, 7.1 yds/rec (27 games total) Cook: 2,834 yards from scrimmage and 24 TDs; 4.80 yds/C, 9.1 yds/rec (33 games total) Should be a good match-up (of the RBs), though obviously Cook has the way better overall team. Kamara has averaged 1,442 yards from scrimmage per season over the last 8 years, with 10.4 TDs per year. Just FYI. (He missed 17 games during that span---8 years). I know it probably won't happen because we have run the ball a ton these first 3 games and I'm sure there will be games where we end up passing much more or the backup RBs get more touches than they have, and I know it is only 3 games, but currently Cook is on pace for 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 22 TDs this year (on pace for 1,609 rushing yards and 402 receiving yards). Like I said, he probably won't reach that, but I was a bit surprised that he was on pace for 1,600 rushing yards and 22 total TDs currently. Last year, that would have put him third in rushing (behind only Barkley and Henry) and first in TDs. Glad we paid the man his money.
×
×
  • Create New...