folz

Man...I can't wait for the Bills to actually start playing games and getting some wins. There is just so much negativity around the Bills this year, both nationally and within our own fan base. I have a hard time understanding it. Maybe I'm the one being delusional, but I think we are still going to be a very good team this year. I mean good for Worthy and good for KC. But as others have said, Worthy was the right fit for KC, but he was obviously not what the Bills were looking for. He didn't fit the Bills...so to me it is much to do about nothing. I could care less what the Twitter(X)-verse has to say, but to ride the Bills for not drafting a player they didn't want, and for maximizing their draft value accordingly, seems silly. There are only two scenarios where this will be a bad trade for the Bills. #1 If Worthy continues to go off and has an amazing rookie year, while Coleman never really comes along. Or #2 if the Bills and KC meet in the playoffs again and Worthy is the MAIN reason that KC beats us. Neither of those scenarios will be determined until at least much later this year, so...nothing to see here. I really can't wait until Sunday. I'm so done with this offseason.

Guys, I think you are thinking of Hollins in the wrong way. Just because he is listed as the starting outside receiver on the depth chart does not mean he is Josh's second target. First of all, McD always defers to vets on depth charts, etc. He wants the young guys to have to prove it and overtake the vet. And, it is a respect thing. The vets have earned their stripes in the league. Second, Hollins is an excellent blocker and a big body. Gabe Davis might not have had great hands, but he was a big asset as a blocker. He's gone. And we plan to run the ball more this year, so Hollins will help in that department and as a possession receiver for Josh. Plus, as far as target share goes, Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, Coleman...and perhaps even Cook and Knox will get more targets than Hollins most likely. So, despite being listed as the "number two," he will probably be 5th-7th in actual targets. The Bills aren't looking for him to have a 700-800 yard year. That's for the other guys. Hollins is there to block and be a big body available for Josh on third downs or short yardage, etc. Plus, there will be a lot of rotating of the pass catchers, I would assume. I don't expect to see Hollins out there as the boundary receiver on every play the whole year. It will be situational dependent. Sometimes Shakir will be outside, sometimes it will be Coleman, or even MVS depending on the situation. I do expect to see Hollins out there say in 4-minute drills when we are trying to run the ball to run out the clock, etc. We don't really know what Brady's offense will look like yet, or how Hollins fits exactly. He could actually surprise some of you (not in going off for a ton of yards, but in how his role actually helps the team). We'll see.

My biggest concern with Martin last year was how long it took him to get the ball off. Too often it looked close to getting blocked. I feel like I saw an improvement in that this preseason (though in a very small sample size). But hopefully, he has improved the speed of his release.

Keep pushing that goalpost... The original posts were about Brandon doing a good job drafting late round talent. So even if a guy is on a different squad at this point, for whatever reason, it still means it was a good pick (a talented player), and if they are still in the organization (practice squad) again, they're good enough for the organization to still be grooming them (they weren't complete busts and out of the league, i.e. a bad pick). But to satisfy you, there are 17 players still on the active roster. Or 1/3 of our roster came from rounds 4 or later. Considering free agency and that the better players are drafted in rounds 1-3 (generally 62% of a team's starters), I would guess that that is probably still a pretty good percentage. Plus, it ignores guys that we got a lot of production from, but for whatever reason (money, cap, wanting to improve the position) they have moved on. Siran Neal (played 6 years for the Bills), Gabe Davis (played 4 years for the Bills), Ike Boettger (5 years, 17 starts), Levi Wallace (4 years, 52 starts), Tyrell Dodson (4 years). According to you, since they are no longer on the roster, they don't count as pluses for Beane. They automatically get logged as bad picks? Come on. Seriously, I don't know what you guys expect. How many teams/GMs do you think are finding lots of high-quality starters that last more than 4 or 5 years on a team in rounds 4 or later? Mr. WEO, pick your favorite GM, the best GM in the league and I'll take a look at his rate of late round picks and we can compare.

Well, considering that 62% of NFL starters over the last 5 years (per the link below*) came from rounds 1-3, you probably aren't going to see a lot of high-end starters drafted rounds 4 or later for most teams. You will see a lot of spot-starters, depth players, and special teamers. The percentages for other rounds goes like this (as far as the number of NFL starters coming from that round): Round 4 10.31% Round 5 7.47% Round 6 4.8% Round 7 3.21% Undrafted 12.19% And that is not making a judgement call about how reliable a starter they are (like you did in your post). A lot of guys that fall into those percentages for other teams probably wouldn't make your qualifications either. Plus, I think you are being a bit unfair. First, you are automatically excluding Bass and Araiza. You didn't include Shakir (he already has 12 starts and will be a starter this year). You also excluded a lot of players who have started games for the Bills. I understand that you are looking for a certain level of play. But considering the percentages above, you can't really eliminate all of those guys when trying to evaluate Brandon's drafting. You can't look at it in a vacuum. It has to be in comparison to other teams/GMs. My list would look like this (not counting this year's draft yet, obviously) 4th Round: Taron Johnson, Gabe Davis 5th round: Wyatt Teller, Khalil Shakir 6th round: Tyler Bass, Matt Araiza, Christian Benford, Damar Hamlin (13 starts) 7th round: Dane Jackson (he's started 28 games for the Bills) Undrafted: Ike Boettger (17 starts), Levi Wallace (52 starts for the Bills),Tyrell Dodson (15 starts), Cam Lewis (4 starts), Robert Foster (7 starts), Reggie Gilliam (9 starts) *https://sports.yahoo.com/the-nfl-drafts-secret-round-170012115.html#:~:text=In 2023%2C 194 Week 1,taken in the third round.

Of the 53 players that I listed (Beane's picks rounds 4-7, plus UDFAs and tryout guys) -28 players (53%) are still on the Bills roster, practice squad, or PUP -37 of 53 players (70%) are still in the league (currently rostered by an NFL squad) -12 of the 53 players are out of the league -4 players were just cut on Tuesday (so currently out of the league, but could still possibly get picked up). So, at the start of training camps this year, 77.4% of Beane's late picks were still in the league. Considering the average NFL football career is 3.3 years. I would think that after 7 years to still have 53% on your roster and 70-77% still in the league must be pretty darn good percentages.

Bobby Babich, Jr. Played DB at North Dakota State (led the team in INTs his senior year) Coaching: 2006 Kent State Graduate Assistant 2007-2010 Eastern Illinois Secondary Coach 2011-2012 Carolina Panthers Defensive Assistant 2013-2015 Cleveland Browns Assistant Secondary Coach (DBs/Safeties) 2016 FIU Secondary Coach/Defensive Pass Game Coordinator 2017-2023 Buffalo Bills 2017 Assistant DBs coach 2018-2021 Safeties coach 2022-2023 Linebackers coach Son of coach Bob Babich, Sr. who spent 19 years coaching in the NFL (mostly as a LBers coach; 1 as ST coordinator; and 3 years as a DC), the last 5 years as the Buffalo Bills Linebackers coach. His son took over the Buffalo Linebacking coaching position on his retirement (moving over from coaching the Bills' safeties). The father and son did not coach together until Bobby, jr. was hired by the Bills in 2017. I didn't quote you, but I hope you're still reading this thread Mr. WEO Rather than being a scapegoat, maybe McD (and the other teams that interviewed him) think highly of him because of his pedigree (growing up a coaches son) and because Hyde and Poyer became one of the best safety tandems in the league under his coaching, and Terrell Bernard was developed and broke out under Babich, jr. after he had taken over linebacking duties. McD has had 7 years to evaluate the younger Babich (and to see how he is developing and coaching his players) and to train him in his system. It is not uncommon for internal hires on the side of the ball that the head coach comes from because the head coach still wants his system run. He wants someone who knows his system, how it works, how to develop players in that system, etc. Look at Andy Reid: In KC, he hired Doug Pederson as his first OC (Pederson had been with Reid for 4 years in PHI, the last two years as his QB coach, before they moved together to KC and Reid promoted him to OC); Reid's next OC in KC was Eric Bienemy (promoted from within, he had been KC's RB coach for 5 years under Reid); and finally, Reid hired Matt Nagy as his current OC (promoted from KC Quarterbacks coach). Yes, Nagy spent 4 years as the Bears HC before coming back to KC as QB coach...but he also spent 10 years coaching under Reid before getting the Chicago job. They were all Reid's guys, promoted from within. How about Tomlin in Pittsburgh? Well, he inherited Dick Lebeau and kept him on for 8 years. His next DC was Keith Butler, who was promoted from within (he had been the Steelers LBers coach for 8 years under Tomlin); when Butler retired, Tomlin promoted Teryl Austin from within the organization (he had been a Steelers secondary coordinator for 3 years). So, again, not uncommon for a HC to hire from within on his side of the ball. Now sure, you can complain that Brady was an internal hire too as he was our QB coach for 1-1/2 seasons before being promoted to OC. But, he wasn't a true internal hire as he wasn't groomed in our organization or under McD, he had already been an OC for two years in Carolina, and he really hadn't been with the organization long. I know some will also complain about the ties with Carolina. But maybe, just maybe, because of those ties, Beane and McD saw an up-and-coming coach and pulled him onto their staff before he went somewhere else. Now, his time in Carolina may not have been stellar, but look at what he had to work with: 2020: CMC (for 3 games only, injury); QB post-injury Teddy Bridgewater; RB Mike Davis; WRs D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel (good receivers, but otherwise...) 2021: CMC (for 7 games only, injury); QB Sam Darnold; RB Chubba Hubbard; WRs D.J. Moore and Robbie Chosen (so basically DJ Moore and CMC for 7 games, otherwise, yuck). I have no idea about their offensive lines at the time, but my guess is they didn't have All-Pros across the board. And I am assuming that both years, that offense was supposed to run through CMC, yet due to injury, he only played 30% of Carolina's games over those two years. Actually less, because both years he got injured, came back, and got injured again. So that is four games that he had to exit early due to injury. So, it was really more like CMC only played about 19-23% of Carolina's games/snaps during Brady's two-year tenure. Tough when you have no QB and you lose your best weapon. Anyhow, back to Babich. I think it is a good thing that McDermott gave him the reigns and I think he will bring that fire to the defense that many of us felt they lacked under Frasier. They were a bit more so under McD last year, but I think Babich can take it to another level. Here's hoping. 🤞

For reference, here are Beane's post-day 2 picks (rounds 4-7, UDFAs, tryouts) (I only included UDFAs that made the team, practice squad, or had some impact---sorry if I missed someone). 2018 2019 2020 2021 4 Taron Johnson 5 Vosean Joseph 4 Gabe Davis 5 Tommy Doyle 5 Siran Neal 6 Jaquan Johnson 5 Jake Fromm 6 Marquez Stevenson 5 Wyatt Teller 7 Darryl Johnson 6 Tyler Bass 6 Damar Hamlin 6 Ray Ray McCloud 7 Tommy Sweeney 6 Isaiah Hodgins 6 Rachad Wildgoose UDFA Robert Foster UDFA Tyrel Dodson 7 Dane Jackson 7 Jack Anderson UDFA Ike Boettger UDFA Cam Lewis UDFA Antonio Williams UDFA Quinton Morris UDFA Levi Wallace UDFA Reggie Gilliam UDFA Cam Phillips UDFA Mike Love 2022 2023 2024 5 Khalil Shakir 5 Justin Shorter 4 Ray Davis 6 Matt Araiza 7 Nick Broeker 5 Sedrick VanPran-Granger 6 Christian Benford 7 Alex Austin 5 Ede Ulofoshio 6 Luke Tenuta UDFA Tyrell Shavers 5 Javon Soloman 7 Baylon Spector UDFA Richard Gouraige 6 Tylan Grable UDFA Kingsley Jonathan 6 Daequan Hardy UDFA Alec Anderson 7 Travis Clyton Tryout Ja'Marcus Ingram UDFA Frank Gore, Jr. UDFA Branson Deen UDFA Mike Edwards UDFA Te'Cory Couch Tryout Joe Andreessen

This post isn't pessimistic, or "realist" talk, it is delusional. Feels like you are just making stuff up. 1. 2024 has already been and will continue to be a year of change for the Bills franchise. This is the only point of agreement I have with you. Then you went off the rails. 2. Like it or not, 2024 is lost. Why? We still have an elite QB, plenty of weapons, a solid defense. It may take them a little time to get on their feet with the changes and injuries, but there is no reason this team can't still win the division and make a playoff run. If we can enter the playoffs somewhat healthy, we'll be better than the team that limped into the playoffs last year. 3. We got rid of our best non-QB offensive weapon. I loved Diggs and what he brought to the team his first three years here. But at the end of last season, not only did he not want to be here (something you said later in your post that we need to get rid of...guys who don't want to be here), and was causing issues in the locker room, but worse, on the field, over the last 10 games, including the playoffs, he averaged 42 yards per game. And he had one total touchdown over those 10 games. Not an average of 1 TD per game, but only ONE TD over 10 games. His catch percentage over those games was a miserable 67%. He was dropping balls and fumbled in the playoff game. Whether it was age, injury, bitterness, or all of the above, he was no longer our best offensive weapon. Kincaid, Shakir, and Cook had all surpassed him in stats and effectiveness. And if it wasn't age or injury, then that means he kind of quit on the team. That isn't leadership. 4. We decided to get rid of leadership anywhere and everywhere we could. This is a bit disingenuous. They didn't just toss leaders aside for no reason. Due to age/health, it was time to move on from Poyer, Hyde, Morse, Tre. Maybe Poyer could have given us one or two more years, but better to move on early than late. Morse was a great leader, but never the most stout center up the middle. So, there is a reason for trying something different there too (not to mention his number of concussions). This happens to teams, older leaders age out and new, young leaders need to step up. That's the NFL. Plus, as I noted above, I don't think you can include Diggs in the leadership department. He was fiery and competitive, but not a true leader (Though he wasn't competitive enough to try hard down the stretch last year---I guess it's just when it suits him). 5. We have a coach that prefers defense to offense This is a fallacy that keeps getting repeated. What is your evidence for this? You do realize that over the last four years, the Bills are 2nd in yards, 2nd in scoring, 2nd in overall wins, 1st in total TDs scored, 1st in points/game, and 1st in 3rd down conversions. Yeah, McDermott really stifles the offense, huh? I recently made a post about our drafting (in regards to offense vs. defense). We have drafted more offensive players than defensive players overall under Beane. In fact, outside of round one, we have the same number or more offensive players selected in every other round. As far as round one goes, it is 4 defensive players to 2 offensive players. But if you include the #1 that was given up for Diggs, then it is 3 offensive players to 4 defensive players. So, the absolute most you can say about our drafting (per GoBills808 in the linked thread) is that the the total weighted value of all of our picks favors the defense (because of those 4 #1 defensive picks---but again, that doesn't weigh in the picks given up for Diggs, which would make things almost even). So, please explain to me how/why McD prefers defense to offense, other than he is a defensive head coach. Where has that hurt our offense to this point? Where are the facts to back your statement up? 6. opted for ineptitude at OC for this year. An off season hiring of a real OC, not a puppet. How or why is Brady inept and a puppet? This is just a ridiculous statement. We did better under him than Dorsey last year (that was when we made our run) and he is respected in the league. A lot of people talked about him as an upcoming coach before he got to Buffalo. We haven't even seen what his offense will really look like (now that he had a full-offseason to plan it out and install it). He has had 9 games as OC for the Bills using someone else's system. We went 7-2 in those games and averaged 27.11 points/game. Our two losses were both by 3 points and one of those was in OT. How are you so sure that he is inept? 7. There are clearly players still on the roster that either shouldn’t be, or who the coaches would prefer off. Who? This statement is so out of left field. First of all, Beane and McDermott have shown that they can cut bait with players when they need to. Secondly, even if a guy isn't as good as you might want, you don't drop them until you have better. But, honestly, who specifically are you talking about? 8. McDermott fully realizing complementary football doesn’t simply mean a nerfed and vanilla offense. As the offensive stats show above, we have hardly been a vanilla offense over the last 5 years. Plus, where have we struggled? Late in the year when the weather turns bad and we go up against a stronger, bully-like team (KC/Cinn). Maybe, just maybe, having a strong run game will allow us to still compete when our passing game is struggling or allow us to close out games where we have the lead. Plus, our receivers aren't smurfs anymore that can get manhandled in the playoffs. And who is to say having a better run game, or a more even split makes the offense vanilla. Maybe it will help to open things up for the passing game. 9. Apparently some our our leaders and their styles hurt the feelings of some snowflakes so Diggs, Morse, Tre, Poyer, and more are gone. Obviously, you are solely talking about Diggs here. Morse, Tre, and Poyer had good relationships with Josh and the coaches. And as a fan, none of them ever did anything to make me think they weren't good leaders. So, this is all about Diggs again. And didn't he do the same thing in Minnesota? Maybe it's Diggs and not Josh, Sean, the Bills fanbase, Cousins, Zimmer, etc. A true leader remains a leader in tough times. They are not selfish. They do not quit on their team. They try to work things out, not foster ill will. As I said before, Diggs was competitive (when he felt like it), but he is definitely not a true leader, despite being voted captain. 10. the amount of respect for Josh around the league is slim to none, I wonder how much of that stems from his lack of seriousness. First of all, I do not think this is true. Just because we get an occasional article with someone saying he's overrated? Besides, what does that have to do with anything? Josh has been battling disrespect since he was in high school. And it doesn't matter what anyone thinks of him, it only matters what he does for our team. Yes, there has been some talk about him stepping up his leadership, and I think that will be easier with Diggs gone. But Josh is who he is. You take the good with the bad. And I'd rather root for a guy that is having fun playing the sport and with his teammates than some dick like Brady. 11. McDermott either deciding to simply get rid of players he doesn’t like or deciding to live with them. back handed compliments Again, what are you talking about? I think for the most part McD is very fair in his pressers. He doesn't praise a lot because he doesn't want guys to get complacent. And sometimes he says something to motivate a guy. But it's not like he is continually throwing guys under the bus or something. And which players did he get rid of because he didn't like (or living with them despite his dislike). I'm not saying there aren't guys he doesn't like or doesn't want to improve on...but with 90+ players at times, or even the 69 that they will carry into the year, you aren't going to like or gel with everyone. But you make this sound like it is something constant and obvious. Who are these players that McD doesn't like? Let me guess, Diggs. 12. Let players that clearly don’t want to be here walk, I’m not sure why Douglas doesn’t want to be here but it’s pretty obvious. Like Diggs? And what makes you think Rasul doesn't want to be here? I haven't seen anything at all. He seemed pretty happy to be here at the end of last year. Where are these obvious signs that you are seeing? It really feels like you are just making stuff up. 13. goofball leadership...Dawkins and Knox...don’t appear to take winning seriously. I assume you aren't speaking of just Dawkins and Knox, but also Josh. First of all, I don't think that Knox has ever been considered a leader on the team (he's never been a captain or overly vocal). And Dawkins is definitely a quirky guy, but that's just his personality. Please give me examples of them not taking winning seriously. Where is that coming from? Just because they like to make jokes in the locker room or because Dion uses cliches and metaphors in his interviews? Do you just want everyone on the team to be stoic all the time? One of the reasons guys like being in Buffalo is because Sean allows them to be themselves, show their personalities. Again, I have a feeling this is more about Josh for you. I guess you think that Josh needs to be more of a dick like Brady was. Well, I'd rather not root for a guy like that. And similar to coaching. The tough guy coach that yells and screams all the time isn't always successful (Gregg Williams types), while guys like Dick Vermeil who cries after winning a Super Bowl because he's so happy for his players can be successful. Josh doesn't have to treat his teammates poorly to be a great QB. Let them have fun! I think it's more fun for the fans if the players are having fun. And look around the league. Just for one example, Mahomes and Kelce are both goofballs, hasn't seemed to hurt them.

Well, according to NFL.com, there are about 500 undrafted players on 53-man rosters. That is 29.5% of the league. So, nearly 1/3 of the league went undrafted. Of course, they didn't denote which were priority UDFA and which may have been tryout guys. I couldn't find much info on tryout players, but here is a 2018 article from the Tampa Bay Bucs listing 5 tryout players who have made the Bucs 53-man roster. That meets your "one hand" prediction from just one team (out of 32). https://www.buccaneers.com/news/five-times-a-tryout-player-made-it-20627393 RB Clifton Smith, T Demar Dotson, DE George Johnson, WR Donteea Dye, WR Adam Humphries. Combined they played 28 seasons in the NFL. I couldn't find any comprehensive list, but here are a few more guys I found that made it in the NFL off of tryouts: Adam Thielen, Malcolm Butler, John Randle, Antonio Gates, Chris Harris, Jr., James Harrison, Wayne Chrebet, Michael Lewis, Gunner Olszewski, D'ernest Johnson, Charcandrick West, Bernie Parmalee.

I am not someone that gets hyped over bottom-of-the-roster preseason warriors. Like a receiver who makes a couple of nice grabs in the preseason vs. 3s and 4s. But I have watched a lot of football, and Joe certainly passed the eye test for me. It's not like he played a few snaps and made a couple of nice plays. He was around the football on every single play whether he ended up making the play or not---and versus the ones, twos, and threes of Pitt. You can't teach those instincts and not every player has them. That's what stood out initially about Milano too (a 5th round pick that many fans didn't expect much out of), those instincts---having a nose for the ball, as they say. And it seemed the majority of Bills fans also didn't expect Bernard to be anything but a wasted pick. Maybe, just maybe, Brandon, Sean, and Bobby are better judges of LBs for our system than many of us are. I don't think Joe is in any danger of falling off the roster or just a feel good story. I think he's the real deal.

Fair enough, with the picks after Josh. If you include Tremaine (in the same draft as Josh) our #1 picks after Josh have been defense/defense/defense/defense/offense. Now, if you include Josh and the 2nd rounders it is 7 defense and 6 offense, but yes, even with Josh I can see the defensive players being of a higher weighted value overall. I guess to be fair (based on where each player was drafted), we'd have to go back and look at each #1 defensive pick and see if there was a different offensive player that at the time was considered even or better (and to a lesser extent, filled a need for the team at the time). And is there a trend...did that happen with every one of those picks? Also, are we so sure that it is McDermott's influence alone for the defensive picks? Therefore labeling that as a reason for not hiring a defensive coach? Or did Brandon and his scouts just believe they were picking the best player on their board at the time? For instance, Rousseau seems like a very-Brandon pick (raw, high-ceiling guy). I know the reality is probably somewhere in between, sort of a consensus where McDermott did have a lot of input, I just don't know if I wouldn't hire a good defensive coach for the fear that he's only going to draft defensive players with his top picks. And though we didn't draft Diggs, that was a #1 draft pick that was used to acquire offensive talent, as NewEra pointed out. A WR for Josh Allen. So, it can't be completely discounted when saying, "no other team does that after drafting a franchise QB." if you include Josh and the pick for Diggs as an offensive acquisition, the #1 picks look like this. offense/defense/defense/offense/defense/defense/offense---3 to 4. So, I do concede your point, I think some of us just push back against the extremes of "we only pick defense" or "we pick way more defensive players," "we only use assets on the defense," etc.

You know I like to look things up... -Since Beane has been the GM (2018-2024 drafts), the Bills have made 55 total draft picks. 28 picks were on the offensive side; 25 picks on the defensive side; and 2 Special Teamers In the first 4 rounds (as mentioned in the posts above), there were 12 offensive players selected and 12 defensive players selected. In the first 3 rounds: there were 10 offensive players selected and 11 defensive players selected. Here is a breakdown by round: Rd Offense Defense ST 1st 2 4 2nd 4 3 3rd 4 4 4th 2 1 5th 6 4 6th 5 5 2 7th 5 4 Pretty balanced throughout. The only place you could say there was an imbalance maybe is in round one, but really, it's just one pick. If one of those first round defensive players was an offensive pick instead, it would be 3 to 3. And you'll also see that that is the only round where the defense has more picks. Every other round is either even or the offense got more picks.

Not really a manipulation of data, I specifically stated that players like Mahomes and Brady were the exception to the rule and I was trying to show what is the more common trend. Yes, I picked those guys specifically to show that just having an elite QB does not guarantee getting to the Super Bowl every other year. It doesn't really matter what players like Brady and Mahomes have done, my point still remains, I showed 5 elite, all-time QBs who averaged 1 Super Bowl appearance every 10 years of their careers. I didn't say every elite QB, I pointed out a handful to prove my point that just having an elite QB does not guarantee a Super Bowl appearance every year---and here are 5 examples. Not trying to hide anything or manipulate anything. I didn't purposely pick guys who didn't make Super Bowls or whatever or weren't considered elite. I picked 5 of the top 10 all-time QBs to show that not every elite QB is going to the Super Bowl every other year (like Brady and Mahomes). And the point remains. But, if you think that my cherry picking players influences the outcome, well let's take a look at a larger sample size that includes players like Mahomes, Brady, Bradshaw, etc. Below are the overall stats for a consensus top 22 QBs of all-time (I only left out players who played the majority of their careers pre-Super Bowl era: Unitas, Baugh, Graham, Starr, Dawson). [Players included in the stat below: Brady, Elway, Bradshaw, Staubach, Montana, P. Manning, Kelly, Aikman, Griese, Roethlisberger, Warner, Tarkenton, Mahomes, E. Manning, Favre, Wilson, Brees, Marino, Rodgers, Young, Moon, Fouts] So, the best 22 QBs of the Super Bowl era have made 65 Super Bowl appearances (with 39 SB wins). Combined, they played 341 seasons total. With a little math, that equates to these QBs appearing in a Super Bowl in 19% of their careers (Super Bowl wins = 11%). So, for 81% of their careers (276 seasons of play), no super Bowl appearances for these elite QBs. [Down from the 90% of the 5 QBs selected in my original post---so not that big of a difference, even including Mahomes, Brady, Bradshaw, Montana, etc.] That averages to one Super Bowl appearance every 5.2 seasons and a Super Bowl win every 9 seasons for the best to ever do it. I can hear you now say that now I'm adding too many QBs to dilute the water. So, ok, let's look at just a top 10 list. (Again not including the pre-SB era guys). For a top 10, I'll go with Brady, Mahomes, Manning, Brees, Montana, Marino, Elway, Rodgers, Young, and Favre. Combined, they played 171 seasons of football with 34 Super Bowl appearances. So, that equates to 19.88% of their combined careers did they make a Super Bowl appearance. Or again, 80% of their careers that they did not make a Super Bowl. Again, that is like 1 Super Bowl appearance every 5 years (for the 10 best QBs of All-Time). In an average of a 17-year career, that would be 3 SB appearances in a career for the best of all-time. And if you take out the outliers (as I originally stated---let's say, just Brady, Mahomes for now), then it's 20 SB appearances in 141 combined seasons for the other top-10 QBs. Then it is 86% of their careers with no SB appearances. Or 1 Super Bowl appearance every 7 years. And if you also remove Elway (along with Brady and Mahomes), then it is 15 SB appearances in 125 seasons, or 88% of their careers no SB appearance. That equates to 1 SB appearance every 9 years for seven of the top 10 QBs of all-time. So, the best to ever play the game are only making a Super Bowl appearance every 5-10 years. And if you take out the 2-3 outliers, it is more like every 7-10 years. I think my point stands...just having an elite QB does not guarantee Super Bowl appearances every year or even every other year (unless your name is Brady or Mahomes). Josh has played 6 seasons thus far, but let's face it, he came in a lot more raw than a lot of other QBs too. So, it has really only been like 4 seasons of elite play by Josh. But still, in 6 seasons, he has come close to a SB appearance twice (the AFC Championship game and the 13 seconds year).

I'm repeating this from a post I made a while ago. You guys need to get over this idea that just because you have an elite QB you should be in the Super Bowl every year or every other year (or the coach sucks). But, that's not the NFL. It's just not as easy as you guys think. That is the exception (Brady/Mahomes), not the rule, as I show below. -Drew Brees (future HOF, top 5 all-time QB): 1 Super Bowl appearance (win) in 20 years (with Sean Payton as his coach for most of his career) -Peyton Manning (HOF, top 3 all-time QB): 2 Super Bowl appearances (1 win) in his first 13 years with Indy (HOF Tony Dungy coaching a good chunk) -Dan Marino (HOF, top 10 all-time QB): 1 Super Bowl appearance (loss) in 17 years (with HOF Don Shula as his coach) -Aaron Rodgers (future HOF, top 10 All-time QB): 1 Super Bowl appearance (win) in 19 seasons -Brett Favre (HOF, top 10-12 All-Time QB): 2 Super Bowl appearances (1 win) in 20 years (Mike Holmgren coaching for much of his career) So, that is a total of 89 seasons from these top-10 All-Time QBs (who all had excellent to HOF coaching for most of their careers) and only 4 Super Bowl wins between them (7 Super Bowl appearances). So, that means there were 82 of 89 seasons where these top-10, HOF QBs didn't even make a Super Bowl appearance (that's 92% of their careers). Even if we add Peyton's time (and SBs) in Denver (when he was a shell of himself), it is still 84 of 93 seasons not making a Super Bowl appearance (or 90% of the time). Just because we have Josh doesn't make it automatic. Of course, part of the problem for Peyton and Dan Marino were Brady/Pats and Kelly/Bills, respectively. Similar to Josh with Mahomes/Chiefs. Plus there is luck, injuries, salary caps, etc. to weigh in each season. I have heard this sentiment a good bit over the last couple years (the bolded). I know the NFL is leaning to hiring offensive head coaches, but having a defensive head coach hasn't exactly been a drag for our offense. Over the last 5 years (2019-2023), the Bills are 2nd in overall wins; 5th in total points scored; 4th in total TDs; 2nd in 3rd down conversion %; 3rd in total first downs. It's not like our offense has been hamstrung by it. And, just for example, many talked about wanting Sean Payton before he went to Denver. An offensive-minded coach who has won a Super Bowl. But, as my post above shows, Payton had HOF QB Drew Brees for 15 seasons and only made one Super Bowl appearance (which of course was a win)---and had a couple of heart-breaking, last second playoff losses (not dissimilar to McDermott). What would this board have been like going 11 straight years with HOFer Drew Brees as your QB and ZERO Super Bowl appearances? The grass isn't always greener. The injuries have definitely put a damper on things, but I'm still excited for the season. I'm excited to see what the 2024 version of the Bills will look like. Which young guys will step up? How will Brady's offense be different? Will Babich be able to inject some juice into the defense? Which players will come into their own, or surprise us? How the team will bond and grow together. I'm crossing my fingers to see a healthy Von terrorize QBs (I know that's a big if). I'm excited to see Dalton become a stud and to see if Shakir is indeed the real deal. Heck, just getting to watch Josh Allen every week is exciting. Let's not count them out before it even begins. Does it look like a bigger hill to climb this year? Sure, because there are so many question marks right now. But that's kind of what makes it exciting too. Even though we have a lot of continuity, there is also a newness to this squad. It will be fun to see how all of those pieces come together and how the questions get answered. If there are more positive answers than negative, who knows where they could go. But yes, it's still a bit of a wait and see at the moment. But I'm in for the ride.

Yeah, like SectionC3 said, usually that pre season crush is a RB or WR who had a couple of good practices and then caught a couple of balls or broke off a big run in the preseason (against lesser competition). With RBs and WRs in the preseason, they really only get a few plays per game maybe to showcase themselves, so the sample size is small. Joe played the entire game (against 1s, 2s, and 3s) and looked dominant throughout. It is very similar to when we first realized that Milano was going to be a guy...that nose for the ball. He was around the ball on every play. You can't teach those types of football instincts. Obviously, he'll be a bit raw still, and we'll need to see some consistency against other opponents, but I not only think that he makes the team, I could see him pushing for playing time in the regular season (before Milano's return).

When I watched the play in real time, I also thought that Coleman needs to make that catch. It looked like a pretty good throw, zipped in there. But, I also realized that he would have been lit up by the safety too. On the TV coverage, they then showed the replay like 3 times from a couple of angles. Not only was the ball high and away (exposing the WR to get blown up by the safety), on the last replay, you can also see that it was a bit of a wobbler/duck. And Coleman did get hit by the safety (#34) on the play, just one step after the ball first hits his hands. You can tell the defender held up a bit because he dropped the ball. But, if Coleman made that catch he definitely would have taken a big shot from that safety. You could say, he still has to make that grab, but it is the preseason. Does he or the team want him to risk that big of a hit in the 2nd quarter of a preseason game? Probably not. So, I am definitely not going to ding him for that play or worry too much that he's afraid of contact or whatever. That wasn't an issue for him in college, don't know why it would all of a sudden be a thing.

Good Night -Greg Rousseau and the starting defensive line -Joe Andreessen---some may say, it's just preseason...but you can't teach those football instincts. Kid definitely made the roster, imo, and will fight for playing time in the regular season (before Milano's return). -Quinton Morris and the TEs. Knox had a nice grab; Morris had a couple of nice grabs and a couple of excellent special teams tackles; and Davidson looked fleet and natural on a really nice out play. -Taron Johnson looked like he was already in mid-season form -The RBs. Cook looked good in limited action. Davis was impressive. And Evans and Gore, Jr. were both gashing the Steelers 3rd and 4th teams. -Ja'Marcus Ingram. Nose for the ball, sure tackling, played hard. -Daequan Hardy. I wouldn't say he was electric in the return game, but he looked steadier than anyone else we've put out there, and showed a little juice. Also showed well in coverage and got his hands on a few balls. Could keep the team from having to keep a returner at a different position. Bad Night -Mitch Trubisky -Alec Anderson Unfortunately, the way the game went, the weather, the QBs, etc. we didn't get to see much from our WRs or our Safeties. Two positions of concern. The game didn't make me worry more about either position, but I was hoping to see a bit more of where we actually are there. Guess we have to keep waiting to see. But, as far as the WRs go, without Josh, Kincaid, or Samuel in the game, it was hard to make any inferences really. The other position I was worried about was LBer. But with how Andreessen, Williams, and Jones played, I'm feeling a bit more comfortable that one (or more) of them can hold down the fort next to Bernard until Milano's return.

A positive outlook: I think the offense will actually be better this year. No Diggs distraction. Kincaid and Shakir with another year under their belts. Brady with a whole offseason to put his offense together. Hopefully, no changing of the OC mid-season. Though we don't have a typical #1 receiver right now, I think the sum of the parts is more than the whole from last year. We are bigger, stronger, faster, and they have better hands in the receiver corps this year (plus more variety, more options)...and there is still a lot of untapped potential with Kincaid, Shakir, Coleman, and even Samuel to an extent (despite his age). We should be able to cope better with weather and stronger, bully teams since we got bigger/stronger and will have a larger focus on the run game and moving the chains with the short and intermediate throws. We might not be as flashy or explosive, but they should be better at controlling and/or closing out games. Our only major losses were Diggs and Morse. Right now (and how he played in the last 10 games last year), Diggs seems like an addition by subtraction thing. And though it will be tough to match his leadership, knowledge, communication, and chemistry, Morse was also never the most stout center up the gut. McGovern is a much bigger player and they are very high on him taking over the center position in the building (like they were with Bernard at LBer last year). There may be some growing pains, etc. but by mid-season, that might be an upgrade as well. The defense was a tough call even before the injuries. The return of Milano, Jones, and Miller kind of offset the losses of Tre, Hyde, Poyer, Floyd. Rasul was a great pickup last year to cover Tre's spot. And with age and injuries, it probably was the right time to get younger in the safety department. I expected the safeties to be faster and more hard-hitting, but less disciplined, etc. due to age/experience. So, I wasn't too worried about that position, but did expect a bit of a drop-off at least early in the year (maybe more big plays allowed). However, the injuries to Milano and Bishop really sucks and complicates the picture. Good news is both could be back by the end of the year. Now, if Miller is back to even 80% of what he was and Daquan stays healthy, that alone is still a huge boost from last year's D. So, a lot falls on Dorian (and the other backers) and Damar/Edwards to really step up in the meantime (they don't have to be elite, just solid). At least we have a coaching staff that is really good coaching up DBs and coverage LBs. And speaking of coaching, I think Babich as the DC will also add some juice to this defense. McD is a very good DC, but he is not really that fiery motivator type. Babich is. I think that helps in the toughness department. So, it's a bit of a wait and see with the defense (a number of question marks right now---particularly the safety position), but if they can avoid further major injury, they should at least be a stronger unit than the one that limped into the playoffs last year. There will probably be a little step back early on, but I do not expect any type of collapse (McDermott's defenses have been pretty consistent regardless of personnel), and they'll get stronger as the year wears on with the young guys getting more playing time and then Milano and Bishop returning. So, I really do not see any major step back for the Bills this year. They will look a bit different, and it may take them a little while to get on their feet, but I think they will be every bit as dangerous as they have been the last few years, imo. There may be a couple of areas where we are weaker, but there are also a number of areas where we should be stronger/better. As to the competition: The Dolphins still have Tua and McCarthy. They are still a warm climate team that struggles down the stretch when the weather turns. Josh seems to own the Phins. So, I'm really not too worried about them. The Jets could be a real threat if Rodgers stays healthy and is playing well. Their defense is very good and has been able to keep Buffalo in check. But, that is also partially why our offense is changing (not just for the Jets, but it does help against them). We got stronger and will have a heavier run-focus, which may be a better strategy against that team. They definitely have some excellent skill players on offense too, but have they solidified the line in front of Rodgers enough? We split with them last year and I could see it going the same way this year. But as it stands, I still take Allen/McDermott over Rodgers/Saleh (especially with Rodgers at 40 years old---41 by the playoffs and coming off an achilles injury), not necessarily head-to-head (not saying the Jets can't beat us), but over the long haul of the season (in order to win a division). Plus, there is only one thing that is more Billsy than being Billsy...and that's being Jetsy. So, I do not see any reason why the Bills shouldn't win another AFC East Title and get another playoff berth. We do still have Josh Allen, right? And I think we see a looser, but more in charge Josh this year. Go Bills!

From a biased Bills fan's perspective and not taking into account off the field criminality, etc...just on-the-field/football-related. Players: Tom Brady Brian Cox Rob Gronkowski Jarvis Landry Dan Marino Christian Wilkins Ndamukong Suh Odell Beckham, Jr. Michael Irvin Coaches: Jimmy Johnson Bill Belichick

If this is actually a thing, it's probably due to our previous "smurf" receivers and small (Singletary) or ineffective (Moss) RBs. Damien Harris was supposed to help there last year, but got injured. We've had a lot of small skill players. That is why a lot of our goal line TDs were Josh running it in or Knox catching a TD (there is a reason Knox had so many TDs over a couple of years). Davis had some size, but was never a decent red zone threat. Our receiver room is now much bigger and they drafted Davis in the backfield. Hopefully the extra size and strength is what this team needed (and not just at the goal line).

In regards to Hollins, it depends on what you are talking about: Yes, if we are talking about catching passes and racking up a lot yards, he is below average. But, if we are talking about blocking and special teams (as a gunner), he is above average...very good to excellent in fact. A couple of things. With Kincaid/Knox, Shakir, Coleman, Samuel, and even the backs, Mack will be like the 5th or 6th target in the offense. They won't be asking him to catch a ton of balls and have like 600-800 yards. He will have very specific roles. 1. He will most likely be the gunner on special teams (he has excelled at that in his career). And remember Siran Neal and Taiwan Jones are both gone. They were our main gunners the last few years. 2. He will be the blocking WR (he helps fill the role that Gabe played in blocking for the run game---Gabe was an excellent blocker, but he's gone. And we will be a more run heavy team, so blocking downfield is important). 3. He will be a possession receiver, as an outlet for Josh, and on 3rd downs, and possibly in the red zone. He'll most likely have a low number of receptions and yards (due to where he is on the depth chart), but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of those catches go for first downs. The team isn't expecting him to turn into something he hasn't yet been in his career. But, he does have traits/skills that the team felt they needed. He basically fills 2 or 3 roles that were missing.

Sorry to hijack the Bass thread with WR talk, but... First, the people making a living predicting these things are often wrong. If they were all former NFL GMs, coaches, and scouts, I might listen more, but most of them are former players (not all WRs and QBs---who might know how to evaluate the position or offenses) and talking heads (communications/broadcasting/journalism majors). Also, they are covering the entire NFL and so, they do not have a deep perspective on any one team (unless they root for them or played for them). Secondly, of course our group is ranked low because we don't have that stud or a ton of proven production, as you said. With national media, it is always about household names and previous production. But, they are often slow to pick up on the trends in the NFL. Like how Green Bay and Kansas City have run their offenses over the last few seasons. Or the fact that Buffalo is going to rely more heavily on the run game this season than it did over the last 4-5 years. It is going to be a different style of offense, so you need different types of players. Plus, they ignore that Kincaid will most likely be our #1 target. Or the fact that with Josh Allen, what we really need are just guys that can hang on to the ball. We have had a lot of issues with drops over the last few years. Most of these guys are solid catchers (MVS excluded). So, they aren't weighing in Kincaid's role (despite not being a WR). They don't really know Shakir yet. Curtis is a good player, but never had huge production. Coleman is slow and was a 2nd round draft pick, so he won't get the hype of some of the other receivers in the class. And the rest of the guys look like retreads (Hollins, MVS, Claypool, Hamler, Isabella) or they've never heard of them (Shavers, Shorter, Thompson, Johnson, Keys) . From the outside, sure it doesn't look great. But, that doesn't mean it won't/can't all come together and by the end of the season they will all be talking very differently about our playmakers. I don't expect any one of them to have gaudy numbers (1,200+ yards), but as a whole, with Josh spreading the ball out, and the defenses not being able to key on anyone specifically, I really think it will work. I think Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, Coleman and Cook/Davis will be a very productive lineup. Last year Diggs had like 1,200 yards, Davis 746, and Shakir 611 (that was pretty much all of the WR production last year---Harty and Sherfield combined for 236 yards). What would be the difference if instead, Shakir, Coleman, and Samuel each had about 850 yards. No #1 with great numbers, but combined it would equate to the same amount of production (and there are still all of the other WRs and TEs in the mix). As I keep saying, if nothing else, on a whole this wide receiver room is bigger, stronger, faster, and have better hands than last year's wide receivers. That can't be a bad thing. When you look at Stefon Diggs' stats over the last 10 games of last season (when the team was winning), they are pretty bad (last 10 games he averaged 4.7 receptions for 42.2 yards and only had 1 total TD over those 10 games---with a number of key drops and a fumble in the playoffs). Gabe also did very little except blocking during that stretch (and was out for the playoffs). Harty, Sherfield, and Isabella were useless. I really don't see how this year's room won't be a better overall unit, despite not having a "true #1" wide receiver. I am actually much more confident of this group than last season's, when looking back at last year with 20/20 perspective. And lastly, I know that draft placement isn't everything, but it's not like we don't have talent (a bunch of low draft picks and walk-ons). These guys might not have all reached their potential, but they aren't lacking talent/athleticism: Kincaid, (1st round, #25), Coleman (2nd round, #33), Samuel (2nd round, #40), Hamler (2nd round, #46), Claypool (2nd round, #49), Knox (3rd round, #96), Hollins (4th round, #118), Shakir (5th round, #148), MVS (5th round, #174).

I wouldn't give old Brandon too much credit...despite making regionalization a big push during his tenure, I think he gave himself way too much credit. It always bothered me when he or the media gave him credit for building the Rochester fanbase. I grew up in Rochester in the 70s and 80s...the whole city rooted for the Bills back then (pre-Kelly era too), except for your couple of friends who just liked to be contrarians, and so they rooted for the Dolphins. I remember driving from Rochester to Fredonia for training camps or to games in Orchard Park and the Thruway was bumper to bumper with Bills fans. I wouldn't be surprised if people in Southern Ontario feel the same. And the whole Toronto thing was a bust. Maybe he can claim he pushed the fanbase slightly farther north into Canada and slightly farther East into central New York, but he also took credit for building bases that already existed. I love that camp is now in Rochester and the setup at St. John Fisher is great, so I give him credit for that. But Rochester was always Bills country (at least from the mid-70s on---Brandon didn't arrive in Buffalo until 2006). As to the OP's link: I find it interesting that, excluding Greenland, the Bills own the Northern latitudes, the Chiefs own a lot of the Southern Hemisphere, and the Cowboys rule the middle/Equatorial Zone. I also find it interesting why certain places in the world root for a particular team, when that team isn't dominant elsewhere. Like why are Mongolia and Mali Browns fans? Why are Australians Broncos fans? Why are the Steelers only popular in Nambia, the Cardinals in Vietnam, and Tampa Bay in the Philippines? I'm sure there must be reasons.

Referring back to my first post, do you consider Don Shula and Sean Payton underachieving coaches? Combined, they had 32 seasons with two of the greatest QBs to ever play the game, and only have 2 Super Bowl appearances between them to show for it (1 win and 1 loss). That averages to 1 Super Bowl appearance every 16 years. Do you want me to go through all of their playoff losses over that time to show you they were as bad as any of McDermott's losses? How about the Steph Diggs miracle catch in Minnesota to knock out the Saints. How is that different from 13 seconds? In fact, New Orleans got knocked out two years in a row with some playoff miracle. And Andy Reid is brought up a lot, as it took him 21 years to reach a Super Bowl despite having above average to excellent QB play before Mahomes (McNabb and Alex Smith). I've heard other posters in the past wish we would have hired Sean Payton when he was available. How would that have been any different? Yes, he won the big one, but only once in 15 years with HOF QB Drew Brees (and no other SB appearances in that time). That would obviously be underachieving according to your standards, but most people still consider him a great coach. And yeah, it's true of any coach...even the HOFers, if you give them a crappy QB, their team probably won't be great. If you give them an average QB, their team will probably be average, and if you give them an elite QB, they'll probably be pretty good. It's a QB-driven league. Just look at Bill Belichick---considered the greatest coach ever. His record without Brady is 64-82 for a 43.8% win percentage. Again, just because a coach has an elite QB it doesn't mean Super Bowls are automatic, especially when you have an all-time team/QB standing in your way (like the Chiefs for us, the Pats for the Colts, and the Bills for the Dolphins back in the day). I don't understand why you guys can't see that. A lot of things need to go right in a season to win a Super Bowl. In 2022, just about everything went wrong for the Bills, from before the season even started (and some of you want to ignore that as if the coaches and players are robots and aren't affected by life and outside circumstances). And yes, we lost to the Chiefs 3 times in the playoffs. The first time (in the AFC championship game), the Bills weren't quite ready yet---the Chiefs were a better, more-seasoned team at that point (and the refs helped the Chiefs a lot too). And the other two losses were each literally 1 or 2 plays from being Bills victories (and that is despite our defense being decimated last year). We aren't getting blown out by them. But, some of you guys refuse to acknowledge any context to how or why our seasons have turned out as they did. Nope, just we have Josh Allen, we should be in the Super Bowl every year. And since we're not, McDermott sucks. Again, McDermott would be snatched up immediately if he left or was fired from the Bills. Despite the defensive let-downs in a couple of the playoff games, over the last 5 years, McDermott's defense is: -1st in fewest points surrendered -2nd in fewest yards surrendered [only 291 yards behind the 49ers (or 3.4 yards/game)] -3rd in First downs surrendered -2nd in Third down conversions surrendered -2nd in turnovers (behind the Steelers by only one turnover) -7th in sacks (tied with the 49ers, only 2 behind the Chiefs) And we've never had a star-studded defense. That is a lot of consistent production from that side of the ball. But, that must be all Josh Allen too. They may not have been that elite, intimidating defense, but if you are surrendering the fewest amount of points, yards, and first downs, you are going to win a lot of games---regardless of your QB. Maybe you don't think McDermott can win the big games...that's fine. But to say he is average at best...meaning you really think he is below average, seems ridiculous to me when he has the second most wins of any coach and the best defense over the last 5 years. What are you basing your opinion on? 13 seconds and the Bengals playoff loss only?