Aside from all the historical disappointments already mentioned, pessimism always *sounds* smarter than optimism because optimism sounds like a sales pitch while pessimism sounds like someone trying to help you.
More Tua hype porn from the stat guys at Five Thirty Eight: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-dolphins-wanted-to-let-tua-tagovailoa-go-now-theyve-unleashed-him/